Oil prices edged slightly lower Monday as oversupply worries outweighed geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East.
Brent crude settled at $66.57, down 11 cents (−0.2%), while the expiring WTI October contract closed at $62.64 (−4 cents, −0.1%). The more active November contract slipped 12 cents (−0.2%) to $62.28. Both benchmarks have traded within a tight $65.50–$69 range since early August.
Traders kept focus on the supply outlook, with Iraq confirming higher exports under its OPEC+ quota at 3.4–3.45 million bpd, while Kuwait reported production capacity at a decade-high 3.2 million bpd. Analysts at SEB noted that demand is set to taper from Q3 into early 2026, even as OPEC+ output rises, warning prices could “be pushed into the 50s” unless China steps in to absorb the surplus.
Geopolitical developments — including Western recognition of a Palestinian state, reports of Russian fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, and Ukraine-related tensions — added background risk but did not create immediate supply disruptions.
U.S. equities softened, and Fed officials cast doubt on the need for further rate cuts, tempering oil’s demand outlook despite last week’s quarter-point easing. Oversupply signals also outweighed news of potential resumed Kurdish exports via Turkey, which would add further barrels to the market.