Oil prices rose modestly on Tuesday, supported by signs of strengthening global demand, while investors remained cautious ahead of an upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.6%, at $67.11 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 34 cents, or 0.5%, to close at $65.45.
Optimism stemmed from a private-sector survey showing China’s factory activity returned to expansion in June, reinforcing hopes for improved crude consumption. Additional bullish signals came from expectations that Saudi Arabia will raise its August prices for Asian buyers to a four-month high, alongside strong demand for Russian ESPO Blend crude.
However, upside was capped by forecasts that OPEC+ will approve another 411,000 barrels-per-day production hike at its July 6 meeting—matching increases from the past three months. Analysts noted the move aims to secure market share amid record U.S. shale output and rising production from over-quota members like Kazakhstan.
Saudi Arabia’s crude exports surged to a one-year high in June, according to Kpler data, defying typical seasonal patterns where domestic demand absorbs more supply. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose by 680,000 barrels last week, according to API figures, with official EIA data expected Wednesday.
Geopolitical focus also shifted to trade talks ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. While a deal with India appears close, Trump cast doubt on any agreement with Japan. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of potential tariff hikes despite ongoing negotiations, adding another layer of uncertainty for markets.