Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, with Brent crude rising 2.1% to settle at $75.26 per barrel and WTI increasing 2.3% to $71.92 per barrel, after concerns emerged that the recovery of Middle East oil flows may take longer than previously expected.
The gains followed reports that a cargo vessel near the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile, prompting the United Nations’ maritime agency to suspend its ship escort program through the waterway. After the market close, U.S. officials stated that Iran was responsible for the attack, renewing concerns about the security of shipping traffic through the region.
Although crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had recently climbed to their highest levels since the start of the conflict, uncertainty surrounding the durability of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the safety of maritime transit reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into the market. Analysts noted that storage facilities across the Gulf are already estimated to be 50%–60% full, raising the possibility that producers could be forced to curb output if shipping disruptions persist.
Additional support came from technical factors, as traders covered short positions and bought into a market that had become heavily oversold following the sharp decline in oil prices over the previous two weeks.
Despite Thursday’s recovery, major financial institutions continue to expect lower oil prices than earlier in the year. UBS reduced its Brent forecasts to $85 per barrel by the end of the third and fourth quarters of 2026, while Goldman Sachs indicated that any increase in Iranian production is likely to be limited even if sanctions relief extends beyond the current August expiration date.
Refined products also moved higher, with U.S. gasoline futures gaining approximately 5% and diesel futures rising about 4%, reflecting ongoing concerns over regional supply logistics.