Oil prices rebounded Tuesday, rising more than $1 a barrel, after a deal to resume exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan stalled—calming fears of fresh oversupply—while traders also weighed attacks on Russian energy facilities and U.S. inventory expectations.
Brent crude settled at $67.63, up $1.06 (1.6%), while WTI closed at $63.41, up $1.13 (1.8%). Both benchmarks snapped a four-session losing streak that had left them down about 3%.
Talks to restart 230,000 bpd of pipeline exports from Kurdistan to Turkey faltered after producers demanded debt guarantees, pulling expected barrels off the market. “Do not count your barrels until they have been pumped,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group, noting the rally reflected a reversal of last week’s oversupply fears.
Still, the broader supply outlook remains heavy. The IEA expects faster supply growth this year, with OPEC+ and non-OPEC barrels building a surplus into 2026. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that low OECD inventories remain a supportive factor, but high OPEC+ exports and a lack of new Russia sanctions are headwinds.
On the geopolitical side, Ukraine struck Russian oil facilities in Bryansk and Samara overnight, while Zelenskiy prepared to press Trump for new sanctions at the UN. Meanwhile, traders awaited U.S. stockpile data, with early polls pointing to a crude build but draws in gasoline and distillates. Flynn flagged diesel stocks as the “soft underbelly” of the market, with any build likely to weigh on sentiment.