“When you make a commitment you build hope. When you keep it you build trust.”
– Stephen M.R. Covey
Weekly jobless claims down week over week and in line with expectations
- New weekly jobless claims ticked lower last week.
- The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday morning last week as it does every week at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
- Initial jobless claims for the week ended July 9, 2021 came in at 360,000 in line with analysts’ expectations.
- Continuing claims for the week ending July 2, 2021 came in at 3.24 million versus 3.339 million a week prior.
Stocks were down on Friday of last week and down week over week
The Dow closed lower on Friday of last week, down -299.17 (-0.86%) points closing out the week at 34,687.85 down -182.31 points week over week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -32.87 points (-0.75%) and closing out the week at 4,327.16, down -42.39 points week over week. The Nasdaq closed lower on Friday of last week, down -115.90 points (-0.80%) and closing out the week at 14,427.24 14,701.92, down – 274.68 points week over week.
In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open down this morning 327 points.
Oil up on Friday but down week over week again
Oil prices rose on Friday of last week, but down week over week suffering its largest weekly loss since March 2021 on the back of COVID fears and the prospect of increased supplies from OPEC+. WTI crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week up +$0.16 a barrel to settle at $71.81 a barrel, down -$2.80 a barrel week over week. Brent crude oil for August delivery closed higher on Friday of last week gaining +$0.18 a barrel, and closing at $73.29, down -$2.31 a barrel week over week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels week over week. At 437.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels week over week and are 1% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels week over week and are 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels week over week and are still 18% below the five-year average for this time of year. Propane inventories are concerning and so are natural gas inventories for that matter – we could be subject to price spikes this winter for natural gas and NGL’s as the industry is struggling filling needed storage. Working nat-gas in storage was 2,629 Bcf as of Friday, July 9, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf week over week. Stocks are 543 Bcf less than last year at this time and 189 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,818 Bcf. (See Chart)
Working Gas in Storage (billion cubic feet)
Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, up by 347,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day, 0.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 77,000 barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending on July 9, 2021, which was 22,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.
Oil is lower in overnight trading and, as of the writing of this report, WTI is poised to open at $70.14, down $1.67 per barrel from Friday’s close.
North American Rail Traffic
Total North American rail volumes were down 2.0% year over year in week 27 (U.S. +0.6%, Canada -13.4%, Mexico +7.9%) resulting in year to date volumes that are up 11.7% year over year (U.S. +13.3%, Canada +8.1%, Mexico +5.9%). 6 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year over year decreases with the largest decreases coming from intermodal (-5.7%), grain (-17.8%), motor vehicles & parts (-19.4%) and farm products & food (-15.8%). The largest increase came from metallic ores & metals (+44.4%).
In the East, CSX’s total volumes were flat, and the largest increase came from intermodal (+3.9%). The largest decrease came from motor vehicles & parts (-25.5%). NS’s total volumes were up 1.7%, with the largest increase coming from metals & products (+51.3%). The largest decrease came from motor vehicles & parts (-15.3%).
In the West, BN’s total volumes were up 10.0%, with the largest increases coming from coal (+38.2%), intermodal (+5.7%) and metallic ores (+483.6%). The largest decrease came from grain (-16.1%). UP’s total volumes were down 1.2%, with the largest decrease coming from intermodal (-6.5%). The largest increase came from chemicals (+9.0%). I
In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down 7.0%, with the largest decreases coming from intermodal (-17.3%), grain (-45.5%) and farm products (-68.8%). The largest increase came from coal (+72.0%) and metallic ores (+20.9%). RTMs were down 2.5%. CP’s total volumes were down 17.3%, with the largest decreases coming from intermodal (-28.5%), farm products (-75.5%), chemicals (-23.8%) and grain (-30.6%). The largest increase came from petroleum (+60.2%). RTMs were down 22.1%. KSU’s total volumes were up 1.7%, with the largest increases coming from coal (+49.1%). The largest decrease came from intermodal (-6.2%)
Source: Stephens
Rig Count
North American rig count is up by 18 rigs week over week. The U.S. rig count was up 5 rigs week over week and up by 231 rigs year over year. The U.S. currently has 484 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by 13 rigs week over week, and up by 118 rigs year over year and Canada’s overall rig count is 150 active rigs. Year over year we are up 332 rigs collectively.
North American Rig Count Summary
Things We are Keeping an Eye on
- Folks, PFL was a proud attendee of the Midwest Association of Rail Shippers Conference (“MARS”) in Geneva, WI last week and what a great time it was. It was so nice seeing our fellow industry professionals once again in person. There were so many wonderful speakers this year and a couple key takeaways that we took note of. One of the biggest things expected was an update on the CN and KCS merger. Unfortunately, there was still no real update given on the CN and KCS merger although it was talked about in great length regarding the key advantages and disadvantages. Another big action item was the recent Executive Order signed by the President to promote competition between the railroads. The STB seemed to be in favor of the new order but hesitated to comment on what enforcements would be put in place to propel this bill to real world functionality. The crowd chatter seemed to indicate that reciprocal switching will be at the forefront of this discussion as this is the best and quickest path to more competition. Again, it was a wonderful conference, and we would like to thank the Folks that hosted it this year as they knocked it out of the park as usual. We look forward to seeing everyone again at SWARS September. Call PFL for a meeting now at SWARS in Dallas, TX.
- Petroleum by Rail – The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 23,506, from 23,656 a loss of 150 rail cars week over week. Canadian volumes were lower – CN shipments declined by 11.9% while CP shipments fell by 3.3%. US volumes were down across the board and CSX had the largest percentage decrease down by 7.7%.
- OPEC said on Thursday of last week that world oil demand would rise in 2022 to reach a level similar to before the pandemic, led by growth in the United States, China and India. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that demand next year would rise by 3.4% to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd), and would average more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022.
- We are seeing a surge in plastic demand for packaging and other products – which has led to any and all cars coming out of storage to fill demand. Also gasoline and diesel demand south of the border has led to all tank cars that are non-coiled and non-insulated to hit the tracks. We are starting to see a shortage of non-coiled 117J’s in the sublease market, however, many are being cycled back to leasing companies or car owners so we will have to see how this shakes out at the end of the day.. The coiled and insulated market is a different story with seemingly thousands of cars available at this time.
- Surging Electricity Needs Keep Fossil Fuel Demand Alive. Global electricity demand is growing faster than aggregate renewables capacity, meaning that more fossil fuels will be required to meet the increasing needs, warns the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA sees 2021 power consumption rising by 5% year-on-year, followed by another 4% increment in 2022.
- If you are looking to make an expansion or improvement to your operations, The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) has published a request for information (RFI) to receive public input on possible improvements to the evaluation process for projects seeking funding from the Capital Investment Grants (CIG) Program. The input is being sought to identify and proactively mitigate safety concerns impacting the transit community, according to a release. Comments are requested by Aug. 16.
We have been extremely busy at PFL with return on lease programs involving rail car storage instead of returning cars to a shop. A quick turnaround is what we all want and need. Railcar storage in general has been extremely active. Please call PFL now at 239-390-2885 if you are looking for rail car storage, want to trouble shoot a return on lease scenario or have storage availability. Whether you are a car owner, lessor or lessee or even a class 1 that wants to help out a customer we are here to “help you help your customer!”
Railcar Markets
Leasing and Subleasing has been brisk as economic activity picks up. Inquiries have continued to be brisk and strong Call PFL Today for all your rail car needs 239-390-2885
PFL is seeking:
- 100 fuel oil cars in Texas dirty to dirty service
- 125 non coiled R’s or J’s clean or last in Jet Fuel needed in Houston
- 10 open top hoppers 2400 C FT in Texas needed for stone on the UP 3-5 years
- 100 31.8k CPC 1232’s for the Use in Gas or Diesel service in Texas for 1 Year.
- 100 30K 117R or J’s for the Use in Gas or Diesel service in Texas for 1 Year.
- 110 117 J’s 28.3 for dirty to dirty service in Alberta for crude.
- 20 19,000 Gal Stainless cars in Louisiana UP for nitric acid 1-3 years negotiable
- 90-110 Pressure Cars 340s in Alberta on the CN 2-4 years Butane/Propane
- 10-15 Stainless 23.5 cars coiled and insulated in the East 1-2 years
- 5 Gondolas for Sale for aggregate in Texas any line
- 8 Hoppers for plastic pellets wanted to purchase
- 15-25 3915 CF PD Hoppers in Chicago any class one 3 year lease – negotiable
- 50-100 117Rs 30.3 gallon for refined products UP and BN Texas negotiable
- 18-25 5,200CF or greater covered hoppers needed in Illinois off the CN or NS.
- 20-25 30K 117Rs for the use in ethanol in the Midwest. Dirty to dirty service/
- 10 6,300CF or greater covered hoppers needed in the Midwest.
- 8 plastic pellet hoppers for purchase.
- 10 PD cars for cement service for purchase.
- 20 17K tank cars for purchase. Must be food grade.
- 50-100 C/I food grade tank cars needed for veg oil in the Midwest for 1 year
PFL is offering:
- Various tank cars for lease with dirty to dirty service including, nitric acid, gasoline, diesel, crude oil, Lease terms negotiable, clean service also available in various tanks and locations including Rs 111s, and Js – Selection is Dwindling. Call Today!
- 50 29,188 US GAL EC&I CPC 1232s with Magnetic gage rods for up to 1 year starting ASAP
- 200 4300 Hoppers in Canada – Lined and dirty Negotiable
- 20 117R 30K plus tanks for ethanol in Wisconsin off the CN Negotiable
- 80 6350 Grain Hoppers in Nebraska on the BN Clean Negotiable
- 90 117Rs 30K located in Alberta CN or CP Refined Products Dirty – negotiable
- 37 BRAND NEW 5161 Sugar Hoppers in Arkansas UP – negotiable
- 205 117Js 29K BRAND NEW in Colo and Iowa off the UP, BNSF – price negotiable
- 99 340W Pressure Cars various locations Butane and Propane dirty negotiable
- 100 340W Pressure Cars Montana or Kansas LPG last in – negotiable
- 218 73 ft 286 GRL riser less deck, center part for sale,
- 19 auto-max II automobile carrier racks – tri-49 for sale – negotiable
- 10 food grade stainless steel cars
- 30 CPC 1232 25.5K Pennsylvania NS clean negotiable
- 20-30 29K C/I 117J cars for lease up to 1 year. Dirty in Biodiesel and can be returned dirty.
- 100-150 29K C/I 117J cars for lease. Dirty in Bakken crude and can be returned dirty.
- 100 29K C/I 117J cars for lease. Dirty in Heavy Crude and can be returned dirty.
- 100-200 LPG Tanks dirty to dirty up to 5 years – various locations – negotiable
- 100 117Rs 29K clean last used in crude Washington State – price negotiable sale or lease
- 21 111s 29K tanks last in alcohol dirty on the CN in Wisconsin for lease price negotiable
- 100 111s of various volumes and locations last in fuel oil dirty price negotiable
- Various Hoppers for sale and lease 3000-5800 CF 263 and 286 multiple locations negotiable
- 45 Boxcars 60ft Plate F’s Located in Tenn CSX – Lease Negotiable
Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars or sell cars call PFL today 239-390-2885
PFL offers turn-key solutions to maximize your profitability. Our goal is to provide a win/win scenario for all and we can handle virtually all of your railcar needs. Whether it’s loaded storage, empty storage, subleasing or leasing excess cars, filling orders for cars wanted, mobile railcar cleaning, blasting, mobile railcar repair, or scraping at strategic partner sites, PFL will do its best to assist you. PFL also assists fleets and lessors with leases and sales and offers Total Fleet Evaluation Services. We will analyze your current leases, storage, and company objectives to draw up a plan of action. We will save Lessor and Lessee the headache and aggravation of navigating through this rapidly changing landscape.
PFL IS READY TO CLEAN CARS TODAY ON A MOBILE BASIS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS
Live Railcar Markets
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