Posted on by Curtis Chandler Posted in Railcar Report

“Don’t ever break someone’s trust. Once you do, then nobody wants to do business with you.”
– Robert Budi Hartono

Jobs Update

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending November 25th, 2023 came in at 218,000, up 7,000 people week-over-week.
  • Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.927 million people, versus the adjusted number of 1.841 million people from the week prior, up 86,000 people week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and up week over week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 294.61 points (+0.82%), closing out the week at 36,245.5, up 855.35 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 26.83 points (+0.59%) and closed out the week at 4,594.63, up 35.29 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 78.81 points (+0.55%), and closed out the week at 14,305.03, up 54.18 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 36,242 this morning down -61 points.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and down week over week

WTI traded down -$1.89 per barrel (-2.49%) to close at $74.07 per barrel on Friday of last week, down -$1.47 per barrel week-over-week. Brent traded down -US$1.98 per barrel (-2.46%) on Friday of last week, to close at US$88.88 per barrel, down -US$1.70 per barrel week-over-week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.6 million barrels week-over-week. At 449.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are slightly above the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels week-over-week and are 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels week-over-week and are 13% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels week-over-week and are 17% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 65 cents per gallon, up 2 cents week-over-week, and down 18 cents per gallon year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels during the week ending November 24, 2023.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 24, 2023, a decrease of 696,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day, 0.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 463,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 95,000 barrels per day during the week ending November 24, 2023.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.775 million barrels per day for the week ending November 24th, a decrease of 11,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.744 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16 million barrels per day during the week ending November 24, 2023, which was 518,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at 73.28, down 79 cents per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending November 29th, 2023.

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (2.83%) in week 47, compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week ending on November 29th, 2023 were 317,030, down (-1.44%) compared with the same week in 2022, while weekly intermodal volume was 277,213, up (2.54%) compared to the same week in 2022. 6 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year over year decreases with the most significant decrease coming from Grain (-14.55%). The largest increase came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+5.92%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (0.85%), with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-25.99%) and the largest increase from Metallic Ores and Minerals (+17.85%). NS’s volumes were up (+1.17%), with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-38.37%) and the largest increase from Coal (+13.09%).

In the West, BN’s total volumes were up (+1.41%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-14.26%), and the largest increase coming from Chemicals (+11.88%). UP’s total rail volumes were up (4.14%) with the largest decrease coming from Other (-22.35%) and the largest increase coming from Petroleum and Petroleum Products (+15.01%).

In Canada, CN’s total rail volumes were down (-8.49%) with the largest increase coming from Chemicals (+16.05%) and the largest decrease coming from Grain (-42.05%). CP’s total rail volumes were up (1.3%) with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-24.92%) and the largest increase coming from Intermodal Units (+63.68%).

KCS’s total rail volumes were down (-13.88%) with the largest decrease coming from Other (-56.52%) and the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+32.08%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -2 rig week-over-week. U.S. rig count was up by 3 rigs week-over-week, but down by -159  rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 625 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week and down by -3 rigs year over year.  Canada’s overall rig count is 192 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year, we are down -162 rigs collectively.

International rig count which is reported monthly was up by 16 rigs month-over-month and up by 68 rigs year-over-year. Internationally there are 978 active rigs.  Folks, you can see what is happening here – why is North America Rig count down and the rest of the world up year over year?  Could it be the Green New Deal or whatever you want to call it? Someone is going to drill the oil  and gas the world needs, too bad it isn’t us.

North American Rig Count Summary

A few things we are watching:

We are watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 28,127 from 28,712, which was a loss of -585 rail cars week-over-week.  The first week of declines after 12 consecutive week-over-week increases – folks we are seeing demand destruction. Canadian volumes were lower. CPKC’s shipments fell by -0.2% week over week, CN’s volumes were lower by -7.9% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly lower.   The CSX was the sole gainer and was up by +5.2%.  The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -22.1%.

We are watching NGL’s and Natural Gas

Natural gasoline inventories are at 27.4 million barrels, up a mere 1% year over year.

U.S. propane stocks reached record highs in September as production rose and consumption faded.  U.S. propane stock increased to 102 million barrels, up 24.6%, which according to the EIA, is the highest inventory levels since 2010.  Production rose 6.1% to 2.1 million barrels per day.  Exports were up, but domestic demand fell.

Meanwhile, U.S. Ethane inventories climbed to 58 million barrels, up 13.7%.  U.S. Ethane production rose to 2.7 million barrels per day, up 28.9% year over year.

U.S. butane stocks rose to 76.76 million barrels, up 11.7% year over year even on the back of U.S. exports increasing 9.7 percent year over year.  Butane blending for gasoline winter stocks is in full swing.

Natural Gas – the product left over after we strip all those liquids off is struggling both in price and elevated inventory levels. Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.2 cents per MMBTU, or 0.4%t, to settle at US$2.814 per MMBTU.  For the week, the contract was down 1% after losing 4% the week prior. That put the front-month down for a fourth week in a row for the first time since February 2023.

We are watching Renewables

Ethanol bulk markets in the U.S. remained thinly traded last week that followed the long Thanksgiving holiday break, with spot prices sagging to some of the lowest nearby cash values since early 2021 before a corn ended rally in November that helped ethanol climb off its latest lows.  Ethanol at Argo closed out the week at $1.82 per gallon up 2 and ½ cents per gallon day over day but down 1 cent per gallon week over week.

RINS seem to have stabilized and are consolidating in what fundamentally could be argued as a bottom.  However, there are no fundamentals in this government mandated market – we are keeping an eye on RINS and wouldn’t go short. In a quiet end to the week on Friday of last week in RINS, D4 RINS closed out the day and the week at 85 cents per RIN,  up a ½  of a cent per RIN day over day but down 2 cents per RIN week over week.  D6 RINS closed at 85 and ½ of a cent per RIN also up ½ of a cent per RIN day over day but down ½ of a cent per RIN week over week.

We have been extremely busy at PFL with return-on-lease programs involving rail car storage instead of returning cars to a shop.  A quick turnaround is what we all want and need.   Railcar storage in general has been extremely active.  Please call PFL now at 239-390-2885 if you are looking for rail car storage, want to troubleshoot a return on lease scenario, or have storage availability.  Whether you are a car owner, lessor or lessee, or even a class 1 that wants to help out a customer we are here to “help you help your customer!”

Leasing and Subleasing has been brisk as economic activity picks up. Inquiries have continued to be brisk and strong Call PFL Today for all your rail car needs at 239-390-2885

Lease Bids

  • 25, 3230 PD Hoppers needed off of NS or CSX in Ohio for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Flyash service.
  • 20, 30K 117R or 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest for 6 Months. Cars are needed for use in Ethanol service.
  • 150, 29.2K 117R, 117J, DOT 111 Tanks needed off of CN or CP in Sarnia for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Fuel Oil service.
  • 50, 23.5-25.5 Dot 111 Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in USA for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt service.
  • 3, 23.5-25.5 Any Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in Port Allen, LA for 90 Days. Cars are needed for use in Fuel Oil service.
  • 3, 23.5-25.5 Any Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in Natchez, MS for 90 Days. Cars are needed for use in Fuel Oil service.
  • 100, 30K Any Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in Chicago for December 23-May 24. Cars are needed for use in Gasoline service.
  • 10, 2500CF Open Top Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in aggregate service. Need Rapid Discharge Doors
  • 108, 28.3K Any Tanks needed off of CN in Canada for 1-3 Years. Cars are needed for use in Crude service.
  • 20-25, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 1-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in VGO service. NC/NI
  • 3, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 1-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Naphtha service. NC/NI
  • 10-20, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service. NC/NI
  • 1, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 6-12 Months. Cars are needed for use in Mono-Propylene Glycol service. NC/NI
  • 30-100, 31.8K CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas for Purchase or Lease. Cars are needed for use in refined product services.
  • 15, 30K 117 Tanks needed off of NS in SouthEast for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
  • 25, 33K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest for Oct-March. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
  • 20-25, 30K 117 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Illinois for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Ethanol service.
  • 100, 28.3K Any Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest/Texas for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oils / Biodiesel service. Need to be Unlined
  • 25-50, 33K 400W Pressure Tanks needed off of CN or CP in Canada for Short Term. Cars are needed for use in Propylene service.
  • 50-100, 4550 Covered Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Grain service.
  • 10, 33K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of CN in LA for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Butane service.
  • 25, 20.5K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of BNSF or UP in the west for 3-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Magnesium chloride service. SDS onhand
  • 25-50, 25.5K 117J Tanks needed off of NS CSX in NorthEast for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt / Heavy Fuel Oil service.
  • 30-50, 33K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of any class 1 in any location for 6-12 Months. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
  • 15, 28.3K 117J Tanks needed off of any class 1 in any location for 3 years. Cars are needed for use in Glycerin & Palm Oil service.
  • 30, 17K-20K 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest/West Coast for 3-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Caustic service.
  • 10, 286K 15.7K Tanks needed off of KCS in Texas for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Sulfuric Acid service. Needed next few months
  • 150, 23.5K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of any class 1 in LA for 2-3 Years. Cars are needed for use in Fluid service. Needed July
  • 25-50, 32K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of NS or CSX in Marcellus for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
  • 25-50, 30K DOT 111, 117, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of CN or CP in WI, Sarnia for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
  • 10, 5200cf PD Hoppers needed off of UP in Colorado for 1-3 years. Cars are needed for use in Silica service. Call for details
  • 30-40, 286K DOT 113 Tanks needed off of CN or CP/ UP in Canada/MM for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in CO2 service. Q1
  • 30, 30K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of UP in Texas for 1-3 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
  • 25-50, 5000CF-5100CF Lined Hoppers needed off of BNSF, CSX, KCS, UP in Gulf LA for 3-10 years. Cars are needed for use in Dry sugar service. 3 bay gravity dump
  • 10, any capacity Stainless Steel Tanks needed off of any class 1 in Canada for 5-10 years. Cars are needed for use in Alcohol service.
  • Up to 60, 5150cf Covered Hoppers needed off of CN, CSX, NS in the east or midwest for 3 years. Cars are needed for use in Fertilizer service. 3-4 hatch gravity dumps

Sales Bids

  • 100-150, 3400CF Covered Hoppers needed off of UP BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Sand service.
  • 8, 5200 Covered Hoppers needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in Plastic Pellet service.
  • 20, 17K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in corn syrup service.
  • 20-30, 3000 – 3300 PDs Hoppers needed off of BN or UP preferred in West. Cars are needed for use in Cement service. C612
  • 10, 2770 Mill Gondolas needed off of any class 1 in St. Louis. Cars are needed for use in Cement service.
  • 20, 2770-3400 Mill Gondolas needed off of any class 1 in South Texas. Cars are needed for use in scrap metal service.
  • 100, 15.7K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of CSX or NS in the east. Cars are needed for use in Molten Sulfur service.
  • 30, 17K-20K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in UAN service.
  • 20, 2770 Mill Gondolas needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in non-haz soil service. 52-60 ft
  • 10, 4000 Open Hoppers needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in scrap metal service. Open top hopper
  • 10, 6400 Open Hoppers needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in wood chip service. Open top hopper, flat bottom
  • 20-25, 25.5K 117, DOT-111, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oil service. Coiled and insulated
  • 15, 30K 117, DOT-111, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oil service.
  • 45, 3000 cf PD Hoppers needed off of any class 1 in Texas. Negotiable
  • 1-2, Any DOT 111, 117, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of any class 1 in Texas. Coiled and Insulated
  • 2-4, 28K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of BNSF Preferred in Minnesota. Cars are needed for use in Biodiesel service. Coiled and insulated
  • 100, Plate F Boxcars needed off of BN or UP in Texas.
  • 200+, 5000cf Covered Hoppers needed off of any class 1 in various locations.
  • 5, 3400CF Closed Hoppers needed off of any class 1 in Ohio. Cars are needed for use in Sand service.

Lease Offers

  • 10, 28.3K, 117R Tanks located off of All Class Ones in St Louis. Cars are clean Call 239-390-2885 for more information
  • 75, 29.2K, DOT 111 Tanks located off of BN, CP in Moving In Midwest. Cars were last used in Bio. Free Move
  • 30, 31.8K, CPC 1232 Tanks located off of UP, BN in Texas. Cars were last used in Diesel. Call 239-390-2885 for more information
  • 25, 25.5K, DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas. Cars were last used in Heavy Fuel Oil. Call 239-390-2885 for more information

Sales Offers

  • 100-200, 31.8K, CPC 1232 Tanks located off of BN in Chicago. Dirty/Clean
  • 100, 28.3K, 117J Tanks located off of various class 1s in multiple locations.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL offers turn-key solutions to maximize your profitability. Our goal is to provide a win/win scenario for all and we can handle virtually all of your railcar needs. Whether it’s loaded storage, empty storage, subleasing or leasing excess cars, filling orders for cars wanted, mobile railcar cleaning, blasting, mobile railcar repair, or scrapping at strategic partner sites, PFL will do its best to assist you. PFL also assists fleets and lessors with leases and sales and offers Total Fleet Evaluation Services. We will analyze your current leases, storage, and company objectives to draw up a plan of action. We will save Lessor and Lessee the headache and aggravation of navigating through this rapidly changing landscape.

PFL IS READY TO CLEAN CARS TODAY ON A MOBILE BASIS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS

Live Railcar Markets

Lease Offers
Lease Bids
Sales Offers
Sales Bids
CAT Type Capacity GRL QTY LOC Class Prev. Use Clean Offer Note