Posted on by Curtis Chandler Posted in Railcar Report

The more things you do, the more you can do.
 – Lucille Ball

Jobs Update

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 21st, 2023 came in at 210,000, flat week-over-week.
  • Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.790 million people, versus the adjusted number of 1.727 million people from the week prior, up 63,000 people week-over-week.

Stocks closed mixed on Friday of last week, but lower week over week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -366.71 points (-1.12%), closing out the week at 32,417.59, down -709.69 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -19.86 points (-0.48%) and closed out the week at 4,117.37, down -106.79 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 47.41 points (0.37%), and closed the week at 12,643.01, down -340.8 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 32,665 this morning up 161 points.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week but down week over week

WTI traded up $2.33 per barrel (+2.8%) to close at $85.54 per barrel on Friday of last week, down -$3.21 per barrel week-over-week. Brent traded up US$2.55 per barrel (+2.9%) on Friday of last week, to close at US$90.48 per barrel, down -US$1.68 per barrel week-over-week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels week-over-week. At 421.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 200,000 barrels week-over-week and are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week and are 12% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 100,000 barrels week-over-week and are 18% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 66 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down -17 cents per gallon year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels during the week ending October 20th, 2023.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6 million barrels per day during the week ending October 20th, 2023, an increase of 71,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels per day, 1.7% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 653,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 116,000 barrels per day during the week ending October 20th, 2023.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.833 million barrels per day for the week ending October 20th, a decrease of -468,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.539 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.2 million barrels per day during the week ending October 20, 2023, which was 206,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $84.39, down $1.15 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending October 25th, 2023.

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+0.37%) in week 42, compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week ending on October 25th, 2023 were 356,647, up (+0.82%) compared with the same week in 2022, while weekly intermodal volume was 336,477, down (-0.1%) compared to the same week in 2022. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases with the most significant decrease coming from Grain (-6.87%). The largest increase came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+7.63%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were down (-0.2%), with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-9.6%) and the largest increase from Nonmetallic Minerals (16.27%). NS’s volumes were up (+1.66%), with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-26.92%) and the largest increase from Chemicals (+18.41%).

In the West, BN’s total volumes were up (2.07%), with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-9.18%), and the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Minerals (+24.24%). UP’s total rail volumes were up (+0.89%) with the largest decrease coming from Other (-23.83%) and the largest increase coming from Petroleum and Petroleum products (+18.33%).

In Canada, CN’s total rail volumes were down (-6.22%) with the largest increase coming from Other (+40.69%) and the largest decrease coming from Intermodal (-21.02%). CP’s total rail volumes were down (-3.95%) with the largest decrease coming from Other (-59.68%) and the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+66.38%).

KCS’s total rail volumes were down (-3.44%) with the largest decrease coming from Intermodal (-15.55%) and the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+120.42%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -1 rig week-over-week. U.S. rig count was up by 1 rigs week-over-week but down by –143 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 625 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -2 rigs week-over-week and down by -16 rigs year over year.  Canada’s overall rig count is 196 active rigs.  Overall, year-over-year, we are down -159 rigs collectively.

North American Rig Count Summary

A few things we are watching:

We are watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 28,005 from 27,819, which was a gain of +186 rail cars week-over-week.  Folks this is the eighth consecutive week-over-week increase! Canadian volumes were mixed. CPKC’s shipments decreased by -3.1% week over week, and CN’s volumes were higher by +2.2% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly lower. The BN was the sole gainer and was up by +2.0% week-over-week.  The CSX had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -12.2%

We are watching The Trans Mountain Pipeline

Folks we are looking at a Q1 2024 at this point for the startup of the 550,000 barrel-per-day expansion.  Line fill on the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion will start in the first quarter of 2024 and take six to seven weeks to complete filling up the line in order to accept deliveries from shippers.  Trans Mountain will own the line pack –  once complete one barrel goes in one end and instantaneously another one pops out the other end.  In anticipation of the line coming on basis has been widening and pipeline congestion on Enbridge Line 3 has been increasing and appropriation on its system reached over 22% for November deliveries.  On Friday of last week, One Exchange (link) WCS for December delivery settled at US$25.20 below the WTI-CMA. The implied value was $59.20. On Thursday, it settled at US$25.25 below the WTI-CMA for December delivery. The implied value was US$57.05/bbl.

We are watching Green Energy

Folks don’t get us wrong – Solar is a good thing in areas of the country where it makes sense. Wind can be somewhat useful but we don’t like the fact that wind farms are hard to maintain, kill lots of birds, and that people really don’t seem to want to talk about this. Offshore wind farms are apparently also having a huge impact on our whale populations.  We have always said Wind and Solar on a large commercial scale is not really green because of all the inputs and maintenance from a conventional basis makes it really not as green as they would like us to think. Now we are finding out daily the equipment really doesn’t work that well!

Siemens Energy AG is in talks with the German government about securing as much as €16 billion ($16.9 billion) in state guarantees as problems at its wind-turbine unit spread to the rest of the business. Shares plummeted 40% on Thursday of last week.

The company is seeking backstops over a two-year period after major shareholder and former parent company Siemens AG indicated it was no longer willing to help. The company said Thursday of last week it’s also speaking to banks, and the government confirmed the talks.

The guarantees have become crucial after the company earlier this year forecasted a €4.5 billion loss for fiscal 2024 despite assurances it had finally come up with a plan to address problems with certain wind turbines.

Siemens Energy shares took their biggest intraday drop since the company was spun out of Siemens in September 2020. The slump triggered multiple trading halts and cut the manufacturer’s market capitalization by around €3.4 billion.

Net losses and cash outflow are now expected to exceed market forecasts for the year, the manufacturer said.

We are watching railcar orders and backlog

Orders decreased year over year. New rail car orders in Q323 totaled 9,346 railcars, which is down 63% year over year from 25,075 railcars in Q322, and down 42% from Q223’s total of 16,194. Freight orders totaled 6,974 railcars in the quarter versus 13,221 in Q223. Covered hoppers totaled 4,583 railcars or 49% of the total orders (versus last quarter’s 61%), with large-cube covered hoppers representing the majority of orders at 2,872 cars vs. 7,370 railcars in Q223. Orders for mid-cube and small-cube covered hoppers were 1,711 and zero, respectively, vs. 2,494 and zero cars, respectively, in Q223. Industry orders for tank cars totaled 2,372 versus  Q223 orders for 2,973 tanks. Together, tank and covered hoppers accounted for 74% of total orders in the quarter versus 79% last quarter.

Deliveries are down year over year and sequentially vs. Q223 levels. Total deliveries of 10,545 railcars were down 3% year over year and down 2% sequentially. Tank deliveries totaled 1,990 while non-tank deliveries totaled 8,555 in the quarter. That implies Q323 tank deliveries decreased 30% year over year and increased 5% sequentially. Freight deliveries increased 7% year over year and were down 15% sequentially.

Backlog was down year over year and sequentially. Industry backlog now stands at 58,680 railcars, down from Q223’s level of 59,878 railcars. Tank backlog increased to 14,606 cars vs. 14,224 in Q223. Freight backlog decreased 6% to 44,074 railcars from last quarter’s 45,654 railcars. The concentration of car types in the current backlog has shifted more toward hoppers sequentially but with a consistent heavier weighting in covered hoppers and tanks, which account for 52% and 25% of backlog, respectively, versus 49% and 24% in Q223, respectively.

We have been extremely busy at PFL with return-on-lease programs involving rail car storage instead of returning cars to a shop.  A quick turnaround is what we all want and need.   Railcar storage in general has been extremely active.  Please call PFL now at 239-390-2885 if you are looking for rail car storage, want to troubleshoot a return on lease scenario, or have storage availability.  Whether you are a car owner, lessor or lessee, or even a class 1 that wants to help out a customer we are here to “help you help your customer!”

Leasing and Subleasing has been brisk as economic activity picks up. Inquiries have continued to be brisk and strong Call PFL Today for all your rail car needs at 239-390-2885

Lease Bids

  • 25, 3230 PD Hoppers needed off of NS or CSX in Ohio for 5 Year. Cars are needed for use in Flyash service.
  • 20, 30K 117R or 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest for 6 Months. Cars are needed for use in Ethanol service.
  • 150, 29.2K 117R, 117J, DOT 111 Tanks needed off of CN or CP in Sarnia for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Fuel Oil service.
  • 50, 23.5-25.5 Dot 111 Tank s needed off of Any Class 1 in USA for 5 Year. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt service.
  • 3, 23.5-25.5 Any Tank s needed off of Any Class 1 in Port Allen, LA for 90 Days. Cars are needed for use in Fuel Oil service.
  • 3, 23.5-25.5 Any Tank s needed off of Any Class 1 in Natchez, MS for 90 Days. Cars are needed for use in Fuel Oil service.
  • 100, 30K Any Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in Chicago for December 23-May 24. Cars are needed for use in Gasoline service.
  • 10, 2500CF Open Top Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in aggregate service. Need Rapid Discharge Doors
  • 108, 28.3K Any Tanks needed off of CN in Canada for 1-3 Years. Cars are needed for use in Crude service.
  • 20-25, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 1-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in VGO service. NC/NI
  • 3, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 1-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Naphtha service. NC/NI
  • 10-20, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service. NC/NI
  • 1, 30 or 31.8K Tanks needed off of in Texas for 6-12 Months. Cars are needed for use in Mono-Propylene Glycol service. NC/NI
  • 30-100, 31.8K CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas for Purchase or Lease. Cars are needed for use in refined prodcuts service.
  • 15, 30K 117 Tanks needed off of NS in SouthEast for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
  • 25, 33K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest for Oct-March. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
  • 20-25, 30K 117 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Illinois for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Ethanol service.
  • 100, 28.3K Any Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest/Texas for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oils / Biodiesel service. Need to be Unlined
  • 25-50, 33K 400W Pressure Tanks needed off of CN or CP in Canada for Short Term. Cars are needed for use in Propylene service.
  • 50-100, 4550 Covered Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Grain service.
  • 10, 33K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of CN in LA for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Butane service.
  • 25, 20.5K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of BNSF or UP in the west for 3-5 Year. Cars are needed for use in Magnesium chloride service. SDS onhand
  • 25-50, 25.5K 117J Tanks needed off of NS CSX in NorthEast for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt / Heavy Fuel Oil service.
  • 30-50, 33K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of any class 1 in any location for 6-12 Months. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
  • 15, 28.3K 117J Tanks needed off of any class 1 in any location for 3 year. Cars are needed for use in Glycerin & Palm Oil service.
  • 30, 17K-20K 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest/West Coast for 3-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Caustic service.
  • 10, 286K 15.7K Tanks needed off of KCS in Texas for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in Sulfuric Acid service. Needed Next few months
  • 150, 23.5K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of any class 1 in LA for 2-3 Year. Cars are needed for use in Fluid service. Needed July
  • 25-50, 32K 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of NS or CSX in Marcellus for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
  • 25-50, 30K DOT 111, 117, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of CN or CP in WI, Sarnia for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
  • 10, 5200cf PD Hoppers needed off of UP in Colorado for 1-3 years. Cars are needed for use in Silica service. Call for details
  • 30-40, 286K DOT 113 Tanks needed off of CN or CP/ UP in Canada/MM for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in CO2 service. Q1
  • 30, 30K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of UP in Texas for 1-3 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
  • 25-50, 5000CF-5100CF Lined Hoppers needed off of BNSF, CSX, KCS, UP in Gulf LA for 3-10 years. Cars are needed for use in Dry sugar service. 3 bay gravity dump
  • 10, any capacity Stainless Steel Tanks needed off of any class 1 in Canada for 5-10 years. Cars are needed for use in Alcohol service.
  • Up to 60, 5150cf Covered Hoppers needed off of CN, CSX, NS in the east or midwest for 3 years. Cars are needed for use in Fertilizer service. 3-4 hatch gravity dumps

Sales Bids

  • 100-150, 3400CF Covered Hoppers needed off of UP BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Sand service.
  • 8, 5200 Covered Hoppers needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in Plastic Pellet service.
  • 20, 17K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in corn syrup service.
  • 20-30, 3000 – 3300 PDs Hoppers needed off of BN or UP preferred in West. Cars are needed for use in Cement service. C612
  • 10, 2770 Mill Gondolas needed off of any class 1 in St. Louis. Cars are needed for use in Cement service.
  • 20, 2770-3400 Mill Gondolas needed off of any class 1 in South Texas. Cars are needed for use in scrap metal service.
  • 100, 15.7K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of CSX or NS in the east. Cars are needed for use in Molten Sulfur service.
  • 30, 17K-20K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in UAN service.
  • 20, 2770 Mill Gondolas needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in non-haz soil service. 52-60 ft
  • 10, 4000 Open Hoppers needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in scrap metal service. Open top hopper
  • 10, 6400 Open Hoppers needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in wood chip service. Open top hopper, flat bottom
  • 20-25, 25.5K 117, DOT-111, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oil service. Coiled and insulated
  • 15, 30K 117, DOT-111, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oil service.
  • 45, 3000 cf PD Hoppers needed off of any class 1 in Texas. Negotiable
  • 1-2, Any DOT 111, 117, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of any class 1 in Texas. Coiled and Insulated
  • 2-4, 28K DOT 111 Tanks needed off of BNSF Preferred in Minnesota. Cars are needed for use in Biodiesel service. Coiled and insulated
  • 100, Plate F Boxcars needed off of BN or UP in Texas.
  • 200+, 5000cf Covered Hoppers needed off of any class 1 in various locations.
  • 5, 3400CF Closed Hoppers needed off of any class 1 in Ohio. Cars are needed for use in Sand service.

Lease Offers

  • 70, 25.5K, 117J Tanks located off of UP in Texas. Cars are clean Call for more information
  • 75, 29.2K, DOT 111 Tanks located off of BN, CP in Moving In Midwest. Cars were last used in Bio. Free Move
  • 30, 31.8K, CPC 1232 Tanks located off of UP, BN in Texas. Cars were last used in Diesel.
  • 25, 25.5K, DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas. Cars were last used in Heavy Fuel Oil.

Sales Offers

  • 100-200, 31.8K, CPC 1232 Tanks located off of BN in Chicago. Dirty/Clean
  • 100, 28.3K, 117J Tanks located off of various class 1s in multiple locations.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL offers turn-key solutions to maximize your profitability. Our goal is to provide a win/win scenario for all and we can handle virtually all of your railcar needs. Whether it’s loaded storage, empty storage, subleasing or leasing excess cars, filling orders for cars wanted, mobile railcar cleaning, blasting, mobile railcar repair, or scrapping at strategic partner sites, PFL will do its best to assist you. PFL also assists fleets and lessors with leases and sales and offers Total Fleet Evaluation Services. We will analyze your current leases, storage, and company objectives to draw up a plan of action. We will save Lessor and Lessee the headache and aggravation of navigating through this rapidly changing landscape.

PFL IS READY TO CLEAN CARS TODAY ON A MOBILE BASIS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS

Live Railcar Markets

Lease Offers
Lease Bids
Sales Offers
Sales Bids
CAT Type Capacity GRL QTY LOC Class Prev. Use Clean Offer Note