Oil prices moved higher on Wednesday as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and tightening fuel inventories outweighed signs of recovering crude exports from the Middle East. Brent November futures, which expired Wednesday, settled at $103.50 a barrel, up $0.94, or 0.9%. The more active December Brent contract gained $1.87, or 1.9%, to $98.03, while WTI rose $1.04, or 1.2%, to $90.42.

Brent posted a monthly gain of roughly 14%, its strongest monthly increase since July, while WTI gained about 5%. The market continues to balance improving crude flows from the Gulf against tight supplies of gasoline and diesel.

Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran remain uncertain. Qatar said it hoped continued shuttle diplomacy could produce progress, but President Trump rejected reports that the U.S. was prepared to ease sanctions or release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for nuclear-related concessions.

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern crude exports have continued to recover. Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly matching the region’s 2025 average, while JPMorgan estimates the 10-day average for total oil exports at 20.5 million barrels per day, or about 89% of 2025 levels.

The improving crude flows are helping reduce some of the supply pressure, but refined products remain a major concern. MUFG analysts said recovering crude shipments should ease some supply-driven pressure on oil prices, while product shortages and elevated freight costs continue to keep the broader energy market tight.

U.S. fuel inventories provided additional support to prices. EIA data showed gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels last week to 204.4 million barrels, while distillate inventories dropped 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million. The declines came as lower refinery activity reduced fuel production, although higher refinery utilization could help rebuild inventories going forward.

U.S. crude inventories moved in the opposite direction, rising 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels for the week ended September 25. That compared with analyst expectations for a 264,000-barrel decline.

The Brent-WTI spread also remained unusually wide as traders continued to monitor the possibility of restrictions on U.S. diesel exports. A reduction in exports could leave more diesel in the domestic market and potentially cause refiners to reduce crude processing, creating additional pressure on WTI.

The White House is also considering expanded sales of red-dyed diesel as an alternative approach to lowering domestic fuel costs. At the same time, August inflation data came in below expectations, potentially reducing pressure for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October and providing some additional support to oil prices.

• Where: The Gaylord Opryland Hotel
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• Where: The Westin Galleria Dallas
• Attending: David Cohen (954-729-4774), and Curtis Chandler (239-405-3365)
• Conference Website

• Where: The Westin Galleria Dallas
• Attending: Brian Baker (239.297.4519)
• Conference Website