Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday, with Brent falling back toward $100 a barrel as the market began to price in the possibility of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran. Expectations for improved Saudi crude exports also added pressure to prices. Brent crude settled at $100.34 a barrel, down $3.53, or 3.4%, while WTI settled at $95.78, down $4.52, or 4.51%. The November WTI contract settled at $92.47.

Both Brent and WTI closed at their lowest levels since September 9. The market is watching this week’s United Nations General Assembly closely after President Trump said he would be willing to meet with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to be in New York. Traders are increasingly looking at the possibility that diplomatic discussions could reduce some of the supply risk that has pushed crude prices sharply higher in recent weeks.

At the same time, there are signs that some Saudi oil flows are beginning to recover. Saudi Aramco loaded approximately 14 million barrels of crude onto seven supertankers inside the Middle East Gulf on Sunday. Satellite tracking also showed Saudi crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaging approximately 2.9 million barrels per day over the past six days, compared with only about 700,000 barrels per day in August.

The increase in Saudi shipments could provide some relief to the market following attacks on the country’s East-West pipeline and disruptions at the Red Sea export terminal of Yanbu. Aramco has been increasing the amount of crude moved through the Strait of Hormuz to make up for some of the barrels that can no longer move through Yanbu.

The supply situation remains complicated, however. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed additional attacks on Riyadh and a Saudi Aramco facility in Yanbu, while China has continued pressing Iran to help restrain the Houthis following Saudi Arabia’s request for assistance.

The oil market is now balancing two competing forces — the possibility of diplomatic progress that could reduce supply concerns and continued attacks that threaten Middle East energy infrastructure. Libya also reported a partial reduction in production at its Sharara oilfield, adding another uncertainty to the region’s already disrupted supply picture.