Brent crude settled at $68.47, up $1.03 (1.5%), and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $64.52, up $1.22 (1.9%).
Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian export hubs and refineries, disrupting operations at the Primorsk terminal, a key western outlet. Russia’s pipeline operator Transneft warned producers they may have to cut output if damage continues. Analysts at JP Morgan said attacks on export facilities like Primorsk are designed to curtail Russia’s ability to sell crude abroad, potentially tightening international markets.
Goldman Sachs estimates Ukrainian strikes have already sidelined about 300,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity between August and early September. That squeeze has fueled strength in refined product markets, with U.S. diesel futures surging 2.5%, outpacing crude and gasoline. “Substantial damage to Russian refineries could increase demand for U.S. diesel exports,” said StoneX analyst Alex Hodes.
Markets are also looking to the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 meeting, widely expected to deliver a rate cut to shore up the U.S. economy and support fuel demand. Still, analysts remain cautious on the broader U.S. outlook.
Traders are also watching for the latest U.S. crude inventory data, due Wednesday, with expectations for another weekly drawdown.