Brent crude settled down 91 cents (1.3%) at $68.76, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.04 (1.5%) to $66.29. Both benchmarks had already dropped nearly 3% on Friday.
OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September—part of a broader move to unwind the group’s largest output cuts, totaling 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of global demand. The group said the decision was based on healthy market fundamentals, but U.S. government data painted a weaker picture, showing the lowest May gasoline demand since 2020 and record-high crude production.
Traders are now watching for the possibility of an additional 1.65 million bpd of cuts being unwound at the next OPEC+ meeting on September 7, which could further pressure prices. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate actual net supply growth since March at 1.7 million bpd, accounting for compensatory cuts by other members.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risk helped limit losses. Trump reiterated his threat to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude. On Monday, he warned that tariffs on India will be “substantially raised” after reports that Indian refiners will continue importing Russian oil, putting as much as 1.7 million bpd at risk, according to ING analysts.
Markets are now focused on Trump’s upcoming decision this Friday, which could escalate sanctions and impact global trade flows depending on whether secondary sanctions are enforced.