Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday as continued attacks on shipping and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations kept supply concerns elevated, while downward revisions to global oil demand forecasts limited further gains. Brent crude settled at $88.98 per barrel, up 7 cents, while WTI settled at $83.27, also up 7 cents.
Market support came from growing doubts that the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement capable of restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said there were no discussions underway to extend the existing ceasefire, while shipping traffic through the waterway fell to just eight vessels on Tuesday, compared with a pre-war daily average of 125 to 140 vessels.
Supply concerns were reinforced by continued attacks involving both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, keeping two critical Middle Eastern energy routes severely restricted. However, the upside was limited after both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their 2026 oil demand outlooks. OPEC now expects global demand growth of approximately 580,000 barrels per day, while the IEA projects demand will contract by 1.6 million bpd. The IEA nevertheless forecasts a much larger 4.3 million bpd decline in global supply, implying an overall 2026 supply deficit of roughly 1.27 million bpd.
U.S. inventory data also weighed on prices. The EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude inventories last week, the largest weekly build since January 2023, as crude exports declined sharply and imports increased. The combination of weaker demand expectations and higher U.S. inventories offset some of the geopolitical risk premium supporting crude prices.