Brent crude settled at $66.12, down 51 cents (−0.77%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $63.17, down 79 cents (−1.24%).
Analysts said the decline was largely seasonal, with fading diesel consumption — a key driver of recent demand — adding to the softer tone. John Kilduff of Again Capital noted that the market was also drawing little support from equities, even as July’s inflation data pointed toward the potential for an interest rate cut.
Reports from the American Petroleum Institute and U.S. Energy Information Administration, due Tuesday and Wednesday, are expected to provide clues on whether fuel demand is indeed tapering.
On the supply side, both OPEC and the EIA reaffirmed expectations for increased global output in 2025, with U.S. crude production projected to hit a record 13.41 million bpd next year before slipping to 13.28 million bpd in 2026 — the first annual decline since 2021. The EIA also cut its 2025 Brent price forecast to $51 from $58, reflecting OPEC+’s faster-than-expected production increases.
Geopolitics remain in the background, with President Trump extending a tariff truce with China until November 10, delaying steep new duties ahead of the holiday season. Markets are also watching Friday’s planned meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, where discussions on ending the Ukraine war could determine whether recently announced secondary tariffs on India take effect or if sanctions expand to other Russian crude buyers such as China.