Brent crude settled at $66.63, up 4 cents (0.06%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $63.96, gaining 8 cents (0.13%). The modest moves come after both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week.
Market focus is squarely on the scheduled August 15 meeting in Alaska between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, where the two leaders are expected to explore terms for ending the war. Trump signaled that a potential deal could involve both Ukraine and Russia ceding territory, framing the meeting as an opportunity to gauge the feasibility of such an agreement.
The talks follow heightened U.S. pressure on Moscow, including threats of secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. However, recent price weakness reflects waning expectations of broad supply disruptions after Washington’s latest measures targeted only India—Russia’s second-largest crude buyer—rather than all purchasers. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that this narrower scope has reduced the market’s geopolitical risk premium, leading the bank to cut its year-end Brent forecast to $62 from $68.
On the supply side, OPEC’s output rose again in July under its agreed production hike, though gains were capped by additional Iraqi cuts and drone strikes on Kurdish oilfields. UBS suggested OPEC+ may pause further increases unless unexpected disruptions emerge.
Beyond the OPEC+ dynamic, supply prospects were buoyed by ExxonMobil’s announcement that an offshore consortium in Guyana has started crude production four months ahead of schedule at its fourth floating production vessel.
Analysts say the market is caught between two competing forces: limited OPEC+ production growth and the possibility of a Ukraine ceasefire that could restore Russian exports to full flow.