Oil prices ended slightly higher on Friday, reversing midday losses triggered by reports of an upcoming OPEC+ production hike, but still notched a steep 12% drop for the week—the largest weekly decline since March 2023. Brent crude settled at $67.77 a barrel, up 4 cents, or 0.1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $65.52.
The modest recovery followed a sharp midday drop after four OPEC+ delegates said the group would raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in August, mirroring July’s scheduled increase. The prospect of more supply weighed on prices already under pressure from fading geopolitical tensions after a ceasefire was reached between Israel and Iran.
During the 12-day conflict, Brent had spiked above $80 a barrel but fell back once U.S. President Trump announced the truce. Analysts noted the market has now largely moved past the Middle East risk premium and is returning to a fundamentals-driven outlook, with supply and demand dynamics taking center stage.
Earlier support came from bullish inventory data. U.S. crude and product stocks declined last week as refinery activity ramped up. Middle distillate stocks in Europe and Asia also dropped, and Chinese demand for Iranian crude surged to record levels in June, with imports exceeding 1.8 million barrels per day, according to Vortexa.
Despite the uptick in demand indicators, U.S. oil production may face headwinds, as the oil rig count fell by six this week to its lowest since October 2021, extending a four-month slide. The market now looks ahead to whether rising summer demand can offset supply growth from OPEC+ and elsewhere.