Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel on Monday, settling at multi-year lows, as OPEC+’s decision to accelerate output hikes stoked concerns about rising global supply amid an uncertain demand outlook. Brent crude futures settled at $60.23 a barrel, down $1.06, or 1.7%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended at $57.13 a barrel, dropping $1.16, or 2%. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since February 2021.
Last week, Brent crude shed 8.3% and WTI fell 7.5%, pressured by signals from Saudi Arabia that it could endure a prolonged period of lower oil prices. On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, the second consecutive monthly hike. This brings the total increase for April through June to 960,000 bpd—about 44% of the 2.2 million bpd cuts originally agreed upon since 2022. The accelerated ramp-up was largely driven by Saudi Arabia, which aims to discipline member countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with output quotas.
Analysts interpreted Saudi Arabia’s move as both an effort to recapture market share and a challenge to U.S. shale producers. The increase in supply led to forecast revisions from major financial institutions: Barclays lowered its Brent crude outlook by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING trimmed its 2024 Brent forecast from $70 to $65.
Additional pressure on oil prices came from fears of global recession tied to U.S. tariffs and trade disputes. According to energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, expectations of rising global oil inventories are contributing to bearish sentiment. Vortexa’s chief economist David Wech also noted a significant crude stock build of approximately 150 million barrels since mid-February, both in onshore tanks and tankers at sea, further reinforcing concerns of oversupply.