Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, as persistent concerns over supply disruptions offset comments suggesting the conflict with Iran could wind down in the near term. Brent crude edged up 14 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $94.93 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was essentially flat, rising one cent to $91.29.
Market stability reflects a balance between tentative signs of de-escalation and ongoing constraints on global supply. Discussions around a potential agreement have included provisions that could allow limited transit through parts of the Strait of Hormuz, though a full normalization of flows remains uncertain.
More than six weeks into the conflict, traffic through the strait remains significantly below normal levels, with only a small portion of typical volumes moving through the waterway. While there are indications of a gradual increase in tanker activity, flows continue to recover unevenly rather than rebounding quickly.
At the same time, cumulative supply losses from the Middle East have been substantial, underscoring the scale of disruption still embedded in the market. Ongoing restrictions—including the U.S. blockade on Iranian exports—continue to limit available supply.
Recent data suggests the market is no longer pricing in a complete outage, but a residual risk premium remains as supply recovery progresses slowly.
On the macro side, the broader economic impact of the conflict continues to build. Policymakers have flagged risks to global growth, while higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions are contributing to inflationary pressures. Several countries are already taking steps to secure additional energy supplies and strengthen reserves.
In the U.S., a surprise draw in crude inventories provided some underlying support to prices, pointing to continued demand resilience despite elevated price levels.
Overall, the market remains in a holding pattern, with prices stabilizing as traders weigh gradual supply improvements against lingering geopolitical risks and an uncertain path toward a lasting resolution.