Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday, supported by U.S. tariff exemptions on some electronics and a rebound in China’s crude imports, though gains were limited by persistent concerns over the broader impact of the trade war. Brent crude futures closed up 12 cents, or 0.2%, at $64.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3 cents higher at $61.53. The modest lift followed a late-Friday move by the Trump administration to exempt smartphones, computers, and other electronics—mostly from China—from recently imposed tariffs. Trump also said he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors later this week, adding to a series of policy shifts that have created uncertainty for investors and businesses.
In China, crude oil imports in March rose sharply from the previous two months, climbing nearly 5% year-over-year, helped by increased Iranian shipments and a recovery in Russian deliveries. Still, Brent and WTI prices remain down roughly $10 per barrel since the start of the month, as analysts revise price forecasts in response to escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing. In its monthly report, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth estimate for 2025 by 150,000 barrels per day, citing trade tariffs as a contributing factor.
Goldman Sachs now expects Brent to average $63 and WTI $59 for the remainder of 2025, dropping to $58 and $55, respectively, in 2026. UBS cut its Brent forecast by $12 to $68, while JPMorgan cited weaker demand and higher OPEC+ production in its downward revisions. Analysts at BMI noted the Brent futures curve has shifted into contango, suggesting supply is expected to outpace demand in the months ahead. Elsewhere, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reiterated that the U.S. may move to halt Iranian oil exports as part of ongoing nuclear negotiations, which saw “positive” talks between the two countries over the weekend in Oman. Also weighing on the market, the Keystone pipeline operator announced a controlled restart on Monday following a shutdown last week due to an oil leak.