Brent crude settled $4.01 higher, or 4.93%, at $85.41 per barrel, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $6.35, or 8.51%, to $81.01.
The rally comes as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled, raising concerns that prolonged disruptions could force producers across the region to cut output. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally passes through the chokepoint.
Analysts warn the impact could grow if the closure persists. JPMorgan estimates crude exports from Iraq and Kuwait could begin shutting within days, potentially removing 3.3 million barrels per day from global supply by the eighth day of the conflict. Iraq has already reduced output by nearly 1.5 million bpd due to limited storage and blocked export routes.
Energy infrastructure across the region is also facing mounting pressure. Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports, with sources indicating normal production may take at least a month to restore.
Meanwhile, tanker attacks continued in the Gulf. The Bahamas-flagged crude tanker Sonangol Namibe reported hull damage following an explosion near Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port. Vessel traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted, leaving roughly 300 tankers stranded inside the passage, according to ship-tracking data.
Tightening supply expectations have also pushed refined product prices higher. U.S. diesel futures jumped about 10% during the session, briefly rising above $3.60 per gallon, as traders priced in the loss of Middle Eastern exports and refinery shutdowns in parts of the region, China, and India.
With the conflict continuing to widen and energy shipments constrained, analysts expect crude markets to remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and regional production levels.