Oil prices remained largely steady on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses of more than 1%, as ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks weighed on prices, but optimism over a potential pause in new U.S. tariffs provided support. Brent crude futures were down 2 cents (0.02%) at $75.16 per barrel, while WTI gained just 1 cent (0.1%). The market initially reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, but traders found relief in reports that their implementation could be delayed until April, allowing time for negotiations.
The more than 2% drop on Wednesday followed Trump’s peace discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, shifting the market’s focus from supply concerns to potentially increased Russian exports. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that traders are anticipating higher Russian energy exports, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Russia’s crude production rose slightly last month, indicating that workarounds to U.S. sanctions may sustain exports.
The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts in 2025 also contributed to market hesitation, following higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data earlier in the week. Additionally, a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude oil inventories, as reported by the EIA on Wednesday, pressured prices further. Analysts at ANZ pointed to the potential peace deal reducing crude supply risks, as well as the impact of U.S. and EU sanctions, as key factors behind oil’s movement.