Oil prices surged over 2% on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions and expectations of extended OPEC+ supply cuts boosted the market. Brent crude rose $1.79 (2.5%) to settle at $73.62 per barrel, marking its largest gain in two weeks. U.S. WTI increased by $1.84 (2.7%) to close at $69.94, the highest daily rise since November 18.
The gains were driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Although the conflict has not disrupted oil supplies, traders are monitoring the broader Middle East tensions, including Iran-Israel relations, for potential market impacts.
OPEC+ is expected to extend its current supply cuts through the first quarter of 2024, with an official decision anticipated at Thursday’s meeting. Analysts believe this extension could ease concerns over a forecasted market surplus in 2025, helping stabilize prices. Goldman Sachs analysts project the cuts will likely continue until April, bolstered by stronger compliance from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq.
On the demand side, weak global growth and China’s slowing crude imports, which may peak next year, suggest limited upside for oil demand. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 1.2 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending November 29, with additional fuel stock builds signaling weak consumption. Official U.S. Energy Information Administration data, expected Wednesday, forecasts a 700,000-barrel decline in crude inventories.
Despite Tuesday’s rally, analysts, including Francisco Blanch of BofA Securities, anticipate that oil prices will soften in 2025 as demand growth slows and market surplus concerns persist.