Oil prices held steady Monday as traders weighed OPEC+’s latest output increase against plans to pause production hikes early next year, while weak factory data in Asia renewed concerns about slowing demand. Brent crude settled at $64.89 a barrel, up $0.12 (0.2%), and U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $61.05, up $0.07 (0.1%).
OPEC+ members agreed Sunday to raise production by a modest 137,000 barrels per day in December, while also confirming a pause in output increases during the first quarter of 2026. The limited hike and pause announcement helped offset bearish sentiment tied to oversupply fears.
Market analysts said the decision “balances short-term growth in supply with a signal of restraint heading into next year,” while Morgan Stanley raised its first-half 2026 Brent forecast to $60 from $57.50 per barrel.
The International Energy Agency continues to project a potential 4 million bpd surplus in 2026, though OPEC maintains its outlook for a balanced market.
European oil executives speaking in Abu Dhabi urged caution against overly bearish forecasts, noting that U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure could tighten global balances.
Asian manufacturing data, however, underscored persistent headwinds. Surveys showed factory activity contracting across several major economies, including China, where oil demand growth has slowed as the country transitions toward renewable energy. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said longer-term demand prospects remain firm, led by growth in India.
A strong U.S. dollar also weighed on sentiment, trading near three-month highs and making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
At the same time, mixed signals from the Federal Reserve added to uncertainty. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he’s in no rush to cut rates again, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she supported the Fed’s recent reduction but would assess further moves at the December 9–10 meeting. Lower interest rates typically support oil demand by reducing borrowing costs.
U.S. manufacturing activity declined for an eighth straight month, pressured by slower new orders and tariff-driven supply delays.
Separately, President Donald Trump said the U.S. could deploy troops or conduct air strikes in Nigeria, citing violence against Christians in the OPEC member nation — a move that, if realized, could have implications for West African crude exports.