Oil prices steadied on Thursday after a sharp drop in the prior session, as traders balanced concerns of a growing global supply surplus with the prospect of short-term export disruptions tied to new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil. Brent crude settled $0.30 higher at $63.01 per barrel, while WTI rose $0.20 to $58.69 per barrel. Both benchmarks had declined more than 4% on Wednesday after OPEC projected global supply would exceed demand in 2026.
Analysts noted that prices found some footing near the $60 level as traders braced for potential sanctions-related disruptions in Russian exports later this month. “There should be considerable support to oil prices around $60, especially with the risk of near-term export disruption once stricter sanctions take effect,” said Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank.
The U.S. Treasury has set November 21 as the deadline for companies to cease transactions with Lukoil, part of Washington’s effort to pressure Moscow toward peace negotiations over Ukraine.
Meanwhile, government data showed U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels last week to 427.6 million barrels, well above expectations, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles posted smaller draws than anticipated. The larger-than-expected build reinforced concerns about rising U.S. production and slowing demand growth.
OPEC’s latest outlook, released Wednesday, added to bearish sentiment by forecasting a mild surplus in 2026, reversing prior expectations for a deficit. The group attributed the revision to increased production across OPEC+ members, as well as continued supply growth outside the alliance.
The International Energy Agency echoed that view in its monthly report, lifting its global supply growth forecast for this year and next, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected record domestic oil output through 2026. Both agencies expect global inventories to build steadily over the next two years as supply outpaces demand.
Adding a modestly bullish note, the reopening of the U.S. federal government after a record shutdown was seen as supportive for short-term fuel demand heading into the holiday season. “With federal workers returning to jobs and travel demand picking up, we could see a rebound in consumption,” said Carl Larry, sales manager for trading and risk at Enverus.