Oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday, with Brent crude falling $2.04 (2.76%) to $71.83 per barrel and U.S. WTI crude declining $2.34 (3.32%) to $68.04 per barrel. This followed a more than 2% drop on Friday.
The market was weighed down by China’s latest stimulus plan, which failed to boost investor confidence in demand growth. Data showed China’s consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in four months, while producer price deflation worsened, leading to fears of ongoing economic weakness. “Chinese economic momentum remains negative,” said Achilleas Georgolopoulos, an analyst at XM.
Additionally, supply concerns are expected to rise in 2025, as non-OPEC crude production is forecasted to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026, according to Bank of America Securities. This increase, coupled with an unconvincing Chinese stimulus, could lead to rising inventories, even without additional OPEC+ production increases.
On the supply side, Hurricane Rafael’s impact on U.S. production was diminishing. As of Monday, 25.7% of U.S. Gulf crude oil production remained shut, though the storm had weakened and was no longer a threat.