Oil prices dropped over 4% on Tuesday following news of a potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, which eased immediate concerns over regional conflict impacting oil supply. Brent crude futures fell $3.75, or 4.63%, to settle at $77.18 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $3.57, or 4.63%, to $73.57 per barrel. Both benchmarks hit session lows with losses exceeding $4 per barrel. Early reports of Hezbollah’s openness to a ceasefire with Israel led to the sharp price drop, as investors reacted swiftly to any potential de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. However, news that Israel continues to weigh its response to Hezbollah and may still target energy infrastructure tempered the market’s response. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, noted the market’s sensitivity to developments in the region, stating, “There should be a lot of volatility up and down on this conflict.” John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, added, “This morning, we heard about the potential ceasefire. Then we got indications targets are still being dialed in.”
The recent oil price rally began after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel on October 1, sparking concerns of wider conflict and a potential attack on Iranian oil infrastructure. While some analysts believe such an attack remains unlikely, any escalation in the region could send prices higher. However, if Israel targets something other than oil facilities, oil prices may face significant downward pressure. Additionally, Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5 storm, has affected oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, forcing at least one platform to shut down. In the U.S., crude oil stocks surged by nearly 11 million barrels last week, further adding to market uncertainty. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell, but the crude stockpile increase weighed on prices.