Oil prices rose about 1% on Monday after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase for November, calming some oversupply worries though weak demand expectations limited gains. Brent crude settled $0.94 higher (+1.46%) at $65.47, while U.S. WTI gained $0.81 (+1.33%) to $61.69.
The OPEC+ coalition confirmed plans to raise output by 137,000 bpd in November – matching October’s hike – after days of speculation about a larger boost. Traders said the modest increase alleviated fears of a flood of new barrels.
“The market feels the actual amount of oil that will hit the market is far less than what was announced, given some OPEC+ members are already producing at capacity,” said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.
The restrained decision came as Venezuelan exports rise, Kurdish oil flows resume via Turkey, and unsold Middle Eastern barrels linger for November loading. Saudi Arabia left its Arab Light OSP to Asia unchanged, defying expectations for a small premium hike.
Elsewhere, Russia’s Kirishi refinery, one of its largest, shut a major unit following a Ukrainian drone strike, with recovery expected to take about a month. Analysts said that may temporarily tighten Russian refined-product output.
Still, lingering signs of soft demand capped upside momentum. The latest EIA report showed U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all rose more than expected, while refinery runs and demand eased.
“If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained,” said Chris Beauchamp of IG Group. “Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can re-accelerate through late 2025 and 2026, which would help demand immensely.”