Oil prices edged higher on Friday but still logged their steepest weekly loss in over three months, as expectations of more OPEC+ supply weighed heavily on sentiment.
Brent crude settled at $64.53, up 42¢ (+0.7%), while U.S. WTI closed at $60.88, up 40¢ (+0.7%). Despite the modest daily gains, Brent lost 8.1% and WTI fell 7.4% on the week—the sharpest declines since early summer.
Traders remain focused on Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where eight members are expected to push for another production hike. Saudi Arabia has lobbied for a sizable increase to regain market share, while Russia has favored a more cautious rise. The resumption of oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey for the first time in 2½ years has reinforced oversupply expectations.
Analysts warned that a seasonal demand slowdown is amplifying bearish pressure. “Demand indicators have fallen a touch through the Atlantic Basin as summer ends,” Rystad Energy’s Janiv Shah noted, while JPMorgan flagged that September may mark the turning point into a Q4 surplus.
Additional headwinds came from bearish EIA data, which showed U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all rose last week as refining activity slowed. On the geopolitical side, Hamas has entered preliminary negotiations with Washington over a peace plan in Gaza, potentially reducing some geopolitical risk premium.
Offsetting factors were limited: U.S. producers trimmed oil rigs by two to 422, Baker Hughes said, while a fire at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery raised questions about localized supply, though officials said damage was contained.