Oil prices settled slightly lower Monday as expectations for another OPEC+ production hike offset optimism surrounding potential progress in U.S.-China trade talks and renewed sanctions on Russian crude. Brent crude futures slipped 32 cents (0.5%) to $65.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 19 cents (0.3%) to $61.31. Both contracts briefly traded nearly 1% lower earlier in the session.
Market attention turned to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend, where eight member nations are expected to support a modest output increase for December as Saudi Arabia continues its push to reclaim market share.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and China are preparing for a high-level meeting later this week. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss a framework that could delay new U.S. tariffs and China’s expanded export restrictions on rare earths. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides had reached a “substantial framework” that could help calm trade tensions.
“Crude futures are taking a breather after last week’s strong rally,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial. “Traders are waiting to see if the Trump–Xi meeting delivers tangible progress.”
New sanctions on Russia’s largest oil companies are expected to pressure Moscow’s exports, though the market remains cautious about how firmly the measures will be enforced. Analysts said the U.S. and European actions could tighten supply slightly but are unlikely to trigger major disruptions without broader international participation.
Demand concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, though firm U.S. fuel consumption data last week provided some underlying support. “The hope for bulls is that U.S. demand continues to recover — otherwise, we could see further drift lower,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Bank.
OPEC and its partners have steadily reversed previous production cuts this year to defend market share. Iraq, one of the bloc’s largest producers, said Monday that a weekend fire at the Zubair oilfield had no impact on exports.