Oil prices surged on Thursday as concerns over a potential escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict combined with new restrictions on Chinese fuel exports to raise fears of tighter global energy supplies. The December Brent contract settled at $102.31 a barrel, up $4.28, or 4.37%, while WTI gained $2.45, or 2.71%, to $92.87.

The rally accelerated after reports that the United States was preparing to send another aircraft carrier and as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East. President Trump said he was weighing his options regarding Iran, adding further uncertainty over whether military action could resume.

China added another source of concern by suspending exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau. The move raised questions about domestic fuel availability in China and whether tighter product supplies could lead Chinese refiners to increase crude purchases.

Diesel markets remain particularly strained. Global inventories are already tight following damage to refining infrastructure in the Gulf and Russia, while Russia has extended its diesel export ban through October. President Putin also said Russia would not resume diesel supplies to global markets until sanctions against Moscow are lifted.

The potential loss of Chinese refined-product exports adds another layer of pressure to an already constrained market. European officials are considering releasing emergency diesel inventories, while the Trump administration has urged Germany and France to draw down their reserves and has discussed the possibility of restricting U.S. diesel exports.

Despite the fuel-market concerns, crude flows from the Middle East have been recovering. Saudi Arabia has resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu following the restart of its East-West Pipeline. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including shipments where vessel tracking is disabled, have reached approximately 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, roughly in line with 2025 levels.

The physical crude market is therefore showing some improvement, but refined-product shortages remain a significant constraint. Analysts have raised their 2026 Brent price forecasts as the disruptions persist, while noting that higher Middle Eastern exports could gradually reduce some of the crude supply pressure.

Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran have also slowed as military tensions remain elevated. Three oil tankers were reportedly struck by projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding another risk to an already disrupted shipping route. Iran is also preparing for a broader response should the United States resume large-scale attacks.

The oil market is now being pulled in two directions: recovering crude exports are providing additional supply, while military tensions, tighter diesel availability and restrictions on refined-product exports are keeping the broader energy market under pressure.

• Where: Loews Arlington Hotel
• Attending: Brian Baker (239.297.4519), David Cohen (954-729-4774), and Curtis Chandler (239-405-3365)
• Conference Website

• Where: The Westin Galleria Dallas
• Attending: David Cohen (954-729-4774), and Curtis Chandler (239-405-3365)
• Conference Website

• Where: The Westin Galleria Dallas
• Attending: Brian Baker (239.297.4519)
• Conference Website