Oil prices inched higher on Thursday, tempered by concerns over impending U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude imports set to take effect this weekend. Brent crude rose $0.29 (0.4%) to $76.87 per barrel, while U.S. crude edged up $0.11 (0.2%) to $72.73, slightly recovering from Wednesday’s lowest settlement of the year. Market jitters grew as the deadline for Trump’s threatened 25% tariff neared, aimed at pressuring Canada and Mexico to curb fentanyl shipments. While the White House reaffirmed its commitment to the tariffs, analysts suggested they were largely priced into current oil values.
Meanwhile, winter storms dampened U.S. demand last week, contributing to a crude inventory build of 3.5 million barrels—exceeding expectations of 3.2 million. On the supply side, newly imposed U.S. sanctions on Russia are squeezing crude exports from its western ports, which are expected to decline by 8% in February as Moscow prioritizes domestic refining.
Attention now shifts to the February 3 OPEC+ meeting, where members will discuss Trump’s push for increased U.S. oil production and formulate a collective response. While Trump continues to pressure OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, to lower oil prices—arguing this would help end the war in Ukraine—analysts doubt a full-scale price war between the U.S. and OPEC+ is likely, as it could be detrimental to both sides. A price war would require OPEC+ to flood the market in an attempt to undercut U.S. shale production, a move that could destabilize the global energy market.