The gains came in the wake of OPEC+’s decision over the weekend to accelerate production increases for a second straight month, which had previously sent prices tumbling. However, market participants appeared to reassess the move and shift their focus to trade developments and geopolitical risks. Notably, Israel struck Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen following an assault on Ben Gurion airport, raising the Middle East risk premium.

In China, consumer spending surged during the May Day holiday, supporting demand expectations as markets reopened after a five-day break. Analysts also cited renewed buying interest from China, the world’s largest oil importer, as a driver of Tuesday’s price recovery.

European economic sentiment also helped buoy oil prices. First-quarter earnings growth for European companies is now expected at 0.4%, a reversal from the 1.7% decline forecasted just a week prior. Meanwhile, the European Commission proposed tougher sanctions on Russia, including targeting its shadow fleet, and U.S.-EU trade tensions remained a background factor as the bloc resisted pressure to accept unfavorable tariff terms from Washington.

In the U.S., the dollar fell to a one-week low, making dollar-denominated oil more attractive to foreign buyers. The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in March due to businesses accelerating imports ahead of new tariffs. The resulting drag on first-quarter GDP pushed it into negative territory for the first time in three years. UBS projected GDP growth would slow to 1.5% this year, down from 2.8% in 2024, but stop short of a full-blown recession if trade deals ease tariff burdens. With the Federal Reserve expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, investors remain wary of how the interplay between tariffs, inflation, and monetary policy will impact future oil demand.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 5-6-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Last week, Brent crude shed 8.3% and WTI fell 7.5%, pressured by signals from Saudi Arabia that it could endure a prolonged period of lower oil prices. On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, the second consecutive monthly hike. This brings the total increase for April through June to 960,000 bpd—about 44% of the 2.2 million bpd cuts originally agreed upon since 2022. The accelerated ramp-up was largely driven by Saudi Arabia, which aims to discipline member countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan for poor compliance with output quotas.

Analysts interpreted Saudi Arabia’s move as both an effort to recapture market share and a challenge to U.S. shale producers. The increase in supply led to forecast revisions from major financial institutions: Barclays lowered its Brent crude outlook by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING trimmed its 2024 Brent forecast from $70 to $65.

Additional pressure on oil prices came from fears of global recession tied to U.S. tariffs and trade disputes. According to energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, expectations of rising global oil inventories are contributing to bearish sentiment. Vortexa’s chief economist David Wech also noted a significant crude stock build of approximately 150 million barrels since mid-February, both in onshore tanks and tankers at sea, further reinforcing concerns of oversupply.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 5-5-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post RIN Recap 5-5-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

 Warren Buffett

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending April 26th came in at 241,000, up 18,000 people week-over-week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.916 million people, versus the adjusted number of 1.833 million people from the week prior, up 83,000 people week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week over week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 564.47 points (1.39%) and closing out the week at 41,317.43, up 1,203.93 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 82.53 points, and closed out the week at 5,686.67 and up 161.46 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 266.99 points (1.54%), and closed out the week at 17,977.73, up 594.8 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 41,169 this morning down 258 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week over week.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$0.95 per barrel (-1.6%), to close at $58.29 per barrel on Friday of last week and down -$4.73 per barrel week over week. Brent crude closed down -$0.84 USD per barrel (-1.4%) on Friday of last week, to close at $61.29 per barrel, but down -$5.58 per barrel week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for June delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$9.60 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$52.35 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.7 million barrels week-over-week. At 440.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4 million barrels week-over-week and are 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 900,000 barrels week-over-week and are about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 600,000 barrels week-over-week and are 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 87 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 3 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 10 cents per gallon year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels during the week ending April 25, 2025.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day during the week ending April 25, 2025, a  decrease of 90,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day, 11% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 581,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 99,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 25, 2025.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.121 million barrels per day during the week ending April 25, 2025, an increase of 572,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.004 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending April 25, 2025, which was 189,000 barrels per day more than week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at 57.47, down -82 cents per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending April 30, 2025.

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+6.3%) in week 18, compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week ending on April 30 were 356,244, up (+6.3%) compared with the same week in 2024, while weekly intermodal volume was 330,278, up (+0.95%) compared to the same week in 2024. 

8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest increase came from Coal, which was up (+29.41%), while the largest decrease was from Motor Vehicles and Parts, which was down (-10.02%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were down  (0.32%), with the largest decrease coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-10.11%) while the largest increase came from Metallic Ores and Metals (+9.22%). NS’s volumes were up (2.45%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+34.31%) while the largest decrease came from Other (-14.94%).

In the West, BN’s total volumes were up (6.70%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (28.93%) while the largest decrease came from Nonmetallic Minerals (-6.67%). UP’s total rail volumes were up (+5.55%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+59.02%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-21.31%).

In Canada, CN’s total rail volumes were down (-7.49%) with the largest increase coming from Grain, up (+95.11%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-29.74%). CP’s total rail volumes were up (15.59%) with the largest increase coming from Coal (+153.65%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-21.01%).

KCS’s total rail volumes were up (+17.1%) with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+67.38%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-34.65%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -11 rigs week-over-week. U.S. rig count was down -3 rigs week over week, and down by -21 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 584 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down -8 rigs week-over-week but flat year-over-year.  Canada currently has 120 active rigs. Overall, year over year we are down by -21 rigs collectively. 

International rig count  which is reported monthly was down by -8 rigs month-over-month and down -87 rigs year-over-year. Internationally there are 891 active rigs.

North American Rig Count Summary

A few things we are watching:

We are watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 26,837 from 26, 951 which was a decrease of -114 rail cars week-over-week.  Canadian volumes were mixed. CPKC’s shipments were higher by +7.3% week over week, CN’s volumes were lower by -5.8% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were also mixed.   The NS had the largest percentage increase and was up by +8.8%.  The CSX had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -3.5%

We are Watching Canada

Folks, there was an election held in Canada on Monday of last week and Canada elected Mark Carney’s left leaning Liberal Party Leader to be the country’s Prime Minister who replaced disgraced Trudeau as leader just 8 weeks ago.

Canada’s Balance of Power

Source: Elections Canada – PFL Analytics

Half of the country is not happy about the outcome.  Carney’s/Trudeaus old green deal is in full force and if Carney does not back down is going to rip the country apart, and destroy the average Canadian way of life who is already struggling.  The Federal Government of Canada is also on a Collision Course with the Provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The premiers of both provinces outlined expectations of any new government prior to the election.

In a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith provided Carney with a list of demands any new government “must address within the first six months of their term to avoid an unprecedented national unity crisis.”

The first potential area of conflict is how the new government deals with the tariff threat from the U.S., said Smith.

“Alberta, as owner of the resource, will not accept an export tax or restriction of Alberta’s oil and gas to the United States, “and our province is no longer agreeable to subsidizing other large provinces who are fully capable of funding themselves.”

Other demands included:

•  Guaranteeing Alberta full access to oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west;
•  Repealing Bill C-69, the Impact Assessment Act;
•  Lifting the tanker ban off the B.C. coast;
•  Eliminating the oil and gas emissions cap;
•  Scrapping Clean Electricity Regulations;
•   Ending the prohibition on single use plastics;
•  Abandoning the net-zero car mandate;
•  Returning oversight of the industrial carbon tax to the provinces;
•  Halting the federal censorship of energy companies.

“As premier, I invite the prime minister to immediately commence working with our government to reset the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta with meaningful action rather than hollow rhetoric,” Smith said in a statement on Tuesday of last week.

“A large majority of Albertans are deeply frustrated that the same government that overtly attacked our provincial economy almost unabated for the past 10 years has been returned to government.”

“The status quo can no longer continue”, she added.

“Albertans are proud Canadians that want this nation to be strong, prosperous, and united, but we will no longer tolerate having our industries threatened and our resources landlocked by Ottawa.

“In the weeks and months ahead, Albertans will have an opportunity to discuss our province’s future, assess various options for strengthening and protecting our province against future hostile acts from Ottawa, and to ultimately choose a path forward.”

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe laid out a similar agenda, during a recent speech to the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC).

“The next one to four months are going to be very choppy,” Moe said, but he is seeing movement in the right direction both in the U.S. on the trade front and in Ottawa on the regulatory front.

At home, after a decade of stagnation, it appears momentum is building to move necessary export projects forward, he said. The recent cutting of the federal carbon tax to zero is one positive sign, he said. Discussions on building an east-west infrastructure corridor are another boost. But there is much more to do.

“We’re aware of the production cap, which is what it is. And we’re going to have a real conversation about it.”

Provinces are also working to regain regulatory control over resources from the federal government to speed development and remove roadblocks, he said.

Meanwhile. Carney seems to be focused on emissions and climate change.

Carney said, “we are going to aggressively develop projects that are in the national interest in order to protect Canada’s energy security, diversify our trade, and enhance our long-term competitiveness — all while reducing emissions.”

 “We will work with the oil and gas sector to reduce their emissions in a cost effective and efficient manner; we cannot lose sight of our obligation to address climate change while ensuring the long-term competitiveness of Canada’s energy sector.”  Investment in Canada’s Energy sector is setting itself up to be muted.

There aren’t many signs of optimism emerging from the Canadian oilpatch that a fourth-straight Liberal government in Ottawa will be a boon for energy development in Canada.

Distrust of the Liberals and longstanding frustration over the party’s policies on energy, including the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69 or the “no-more-pipelines act”) and the federal emissions cap on oil and gas, appear not to have been alleviated by Mark Carney’s campaign pledge to “build Canada strong” with a renewed focus on the economy.

In an article in Canada’s National Post last week, the oil patch in Canada is unsettled and does not trust Canada’s new leader.  “I’m troubled by the fact that most of these things the prior administration put in place, Mark Carney has not committed to altering or changing. In fact, he’s committed to standing behind some of these really damaging bills,” Precision Drilling Corp. chief executive Kevin Neveu said, noting Carney’s addition of a carbon border adjustment mechanism to the existing stack of emissions policies.

“When you continue focusing on these border-based carbon policies and internal carbon policies, you’re putting the climate agenda as a top policy priority, which I think is wrong-minded. Completely wrong-minded.”

A recent survey of energy executives and institutional investors suggests that last Monday’s election outcome doesn’t bode well for oil and gas investment in the months and years ahead.

ATB Capital Markets’ annual spring energy survey of about 60 executives from oil and gas companies and energy service providers, along with 40 institutional investors, said 73 percent of them viewed a Liberal minority government as having a negative impact on their willingness to grow or reinvest in Canadian operations or equities, with 30 percent considering it “significantly negative.”

The survey was conducted last month, but the results were only released Tuesday of last week  because ATB’s status as a Crown corporation limits what it can publish during the election period.

National Bank CEO calls for new energy projects, unity, as tariffs put ‘pause’ on the economy.

Executives from Canada’s major pipeline and energy companies said in an open letter last month to federal political leaders that Ottawa’s industrial carbon tax is counterproductive. 

Federal energy and environmental policies ranked as the most pressing concern facing the Canadian energy sector for the sixth consecutive survey, ATB said. U.S. tariffs and Canada’s reciprocal tariffs ranked behind access to capital on a list of the sector’s top perceived risks.

“We do need to focus on sort of not doing damage to ourselves in this country,” Tristan Goodman, president of the Explorers and Producers Association of Canada, said. “Federal policies have broadly not been constructive or positive in helping develop natural resources generally, not just in energy, but broadly in mining and other types of projects — they have been absolutely unhelpful and negative for all Canadians.”

Elongated timelines for project approvals, which cause significant budget overruns or cancellation of infrastructure projects in their entirety, could continue to drive Canadian midstream companies in particular to focus on the U.S. “at Canada’s expense,” he said.

Investors and companies may also be less likely to take risks or deploy capital under an unstable minority government, analysts said, since such governments rarely last more than two years.

Some have also said they’re concerned about the potential policy uncertainty that could come from the Liberals being forced to seek the support of either the NDP or Bloc Québécois in order to remain in power effectively turning their minority government into a majority giving conservatives no voice at all.

We are Watching LNG in Canada

Some are thinking that in Canada, if you can’t build anymore pipelines, maybe you can rail some LNG? The Summit Lake PG LNG Project is back in the spotlight in Canada last week as the public comment period was extended to May 9, 2025.

Proposed by JX LNG Canada Ltd., the project aims to produce up to 2.7 million tonnes of LNG annually, transporting it by rail to the Port of Prince Rupert for export.

By using existing CN rail infrastructure, JX LNG bypasses the complexities and costs of building new pipelines that are difficult to get approval to build. For Canadian natural gas producers, this concept could offer a faster, more flexible route to Asian markets without the delays tied to pipeline expansions like Coastal GasLink. 

While LNG-by-rail is legal, the proposal has raised concerns over safety, as transporting cryogenic gas over long distances is untested at this scale. However, proponents argue that modern tank cars and safety protocols can mitigate risks. 

If successful, Summit Lake could:

• Compete with U.S. LNG exports, particularly those from the Gulf Coast.
• Increase demand for LNG railcars and logistics, especially from Canadian National Railway (CN).
• Shift Canadian gas flows, diverting gas that might have gone to U.S. markets through pipelines, to rail exports.
• Set a new regulatory precedent for LNG transport by rail across North America.

Key Dates

• Public comment period: Extended through May 9, 2025
• Construction start: 2026
• Operations begin: 2028

The problem, as we see it, is the cost of each rail car is crazy – making a 117J looks like child’s play. The cost of a new LNG rail tank car, designed for transporting Liquefied Natural Gas, can range from $650,000 to $750,000. These specialized cars, which meet DOT-113C120W standards for cryogenic materials, are designed to safely transport super-cooled liquids like LNG. Insurance for transporting LNG could also be pricey, given the risks involved in doing so.  We doubt the return will be there, but stranger things have happened.  No LNG has ever been transported by rail in the United States while there was a rule allowing it; the Biden administration suspended it in 2023. PFL is curiously watching this one closely.

We are Watching Renewables

In an announcement last week, the U.S. energy storage industry has committed $100 billion to building and sourcing American-made grid batteries by 2030. The American Clean Power Association underscores a sharp pivot toward domestic manufacturing to meet 100% of U.S. storage demand and reduce dependence on foreign supply chains.

Over 25 battery manufacturing plants are now under construction or expansion across the country, part of a surge expected to create more than 350,000 jobs. The effort supports not only the growth of renewables but also ensures fossil fuel power can stay reliable by storing excess grid energy not consumed during off peek hours when the sun is not shining in essence flatting the grid somewhat for peak use they said.

Still, industry leaders warn the plan hinges on steady tax and trade policies, faster permitting, and ramped-up domestic mining for critical minerals like lithium and cobalt—resources that remain largely imported.  More mine jobs would be great if anything.

For freight and industrial sectors, the move promises years of infrastructure activity. From raw material shipments to facility construction, the logistics behind this buildout could be sizable.

We are watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence decreased to 86 in April 2025, down from 92.9 in March.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.8 in April, down from 57.9 in March.

Consumer Spending

In March 2025, total consumer spending adjusted for inflation rose by 1% over February 2025. This follows a gain of 0.6% in February. According to the government, year-over-year inflation-adjusted total spending in March 2025 was up 3.1%. Inflation-adjusted spending on goods increased by 1.2% in March, following a 0.7% rise in February. Inflation-adjusted spending on services rose by 0.9% in March, building on a 0.5% gain in February and marking the thirteenth consecutive month-to-month increase.

Lease Bids

• 10, 2500CF Open Top Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 5 years. Cars are needed for use in aggregate service. Need Rapid Discharge Doors
• 25, 3230 PD Hoppers needed off of NS or CSX in Ohio for 5 years. Cars are needed for use in Flyash service.
• 100, 5200 Covered Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Northwest for 6 month. Cars are needed for use in Pet Coke service. Roud Hatch, Bottom Outlet Doors
• 100, 4750 Covered Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 1-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Petcoke service.
• 50, 5000CF Covered Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Houston for 6 Month. Cars are needed for use in Fertilizer service. Needed ASAP
• 50, 23.5-25.5 DOT111 Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in USA for 5 years. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt service.
• 20, 25.5k CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP, BN, CSX, NS in OK, TX, Northeast for 3 Year. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt service.
• 10, 30K 117R or 117J Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in USA for 1 year. Cars are needed for use in Glycerin service.
• 15-20, 29K 117R Tanks needed off of NS or CSX in Ohio for 6-12 Months. Cars are needed for use in Ply Oil service.
• 30-50, 23.5K Any Type Tanks needed off of any class 1 in any location for 1-5Years. Cars are needed for use in Glycols service.
• 100, 30K 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service. Needed in Jan
• 10, 30K 117R Tanks needed off of CSX or NS in Southeast for 6 Months. Cars are needed for use in Crude service. Needed in Jan
• 20, 28K 117J Tanks needed off of CSX or NS in Midwest for 12 Months. Cars are needed for use in Crude service. Needed in Jan
• 50, 30K 117R/117J Tanks needed off of CSX in Northeast for 5 Year. Cars are needed for use in Refined Fuels service.
• 12, 28.3K Any Type Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Houston for 2Year. Cars are needed for use in Lube Oil service.
• 20, 30K 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Midwest for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Ethanol service.
• 100, 30K 117J Tanks needed off of BN in Montana for 2 years. Cars are needed for use in Crude service.
• 10, 25.5K Any Type Tanks needed off of CSX in Florida for 2 Years. Cars are needed for use in UCO service.
• 10, 25.5K Any Type Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in Any Location for 3-12 months. Cars are needed for use in Asphalt service.
• 20, 30K Any Type Tanks needed off of various class 1s in various locations for 1-5 years. Cars are needed for use in Condensate service.
• 6, 30K 117R or 117J Tanks needed off of Any Class 1 in USA for 1 year. Cars are needed for use in Av Gas service.
• 10, 25.5K-30K 117R or 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 1 year. Cars are needed for use in Dicyclopentadiene service.
• 70, 30K DOT 117R/ DOT 117J Tanks needed off of UP in Corpus Christi for 5 Year. Cars are needed for use in Gasoline service.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF  Covered Hoppers needed off of UP BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed. 
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in corn syrup service. 

Lease Offers

• 60, 4750, Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Eads, CO. Cars are clean UP to 5 Years, 3 Hopper, Gravity Gate, Trough Hatches
• 50, 33K, 400W Pressure Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Chicago. Cars were last used in Propylene. 1 Year Term
• 50, 29K , DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Hamilton, ON. Cars were last used in Biodiesel. 1 year +
• 20-25, 30K, 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in West Texas. Cars were last used in Ethanol. 1 year minimum
• 24, 25.5K-30K, DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars were last used in Base Oils. 1-2 Year
• 50, 33K, 400W Pressure Tanks located off of All Class 1s in US and Canada. Cars were last used in Propane. Summer or Longer Lease Available.
• 100, 6250, Covered Hoppers located off of UP in US . Cars were last used in DDG. 1 Year term. Dirty to Dirty. Free move on UP.
• 25-50, 19.6K, DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in US. Cars were last used in Molases .

Sales Offers

• 21, 50′, Plate C Boxcars located off of various class 1s in NM. End of Life
• 3, 50′, Plate C Boxcars located off of various class 1s in multiple locations. End of Life
• 27, 50′, Plate C Boxcars located off of various class 1s in PQ. End of Life
• 100-300, 3250, Covered Hoppers located off of various class 1s in multiple locations. Sand Cars
• 5, 2740, Mill Gondolas located off of various class 1s in NC. End of Life
• 1, 2260, Mill Gondolas located off of various class 1s in AL. End of Life
• 30, 2740, Mill Gondolas located off of various class 1s in multiple locations. End of Life
• 21, 2740, Mill Gondolas located off of various class 1s in WA. End of Life
• 15, 4750, Covered Hoppers located off of various class 1s in multiple locations. End of Life
• 5, 4750, Covered Hoppers located off of various class 1s in multiple locations. End of Life
• 50-100, 31.8K, CPC 1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Requal Due in 2025

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 5-5-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The selloff was driven by mounting concerns that OPEC+ may agree to accelerate output hikes, adding more supply to an already uncertain demand environment. The group’s meeting was unexpectedly moved up to Saturday from the originally scheduled Monday, fueling speculation about internal disagreements or strategic maneuvering. Sources indicated the bloc is still weighing whether to continue with modest increases or pursue a faster ramp-up.

Adding to the bearish tone were ongoing fears that a slowing global economy—exacerbated by trade tensions between the U.S. and China—could erode demand. While there were tentative signs of renewed dialogue between Washington and Beijing, analysts warned that any resolution remains uncertain and unlikely to bring immediate relief to the energy markets.

OPEC+’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, has reportedly told allies it does not intend to support the market with further supply cuts, reinforcing expectations of a more aggressive production stance. Currently, the group is cutting over 5 million barrels per day, and an increase would come just as demand forecasts for the year are being revised downward.

Still, the downside was somewhat cushioned by supportive factors. Strong U.S. jobs data lifted equity markets, bolstering broader investor sentiment. Additionally, President Trump’s warning of possible secondary sanctions on Iranian crude buyers raised the potential for tighter supply, particularly affecting China—the largest importer of Iranian oil—and further complicating trade negotiations.

Oil market participants are also watching U.S. production trends closely. Baker Hughes data on Friday showed the number of active oil rigs fell by four to 479, suggesting a potential slowdown in domestic output growth that could support prices in the longer term.

Overall, the market remains volatile and highly sensitive to developments in OPEC+ policy, U.S.-China relations, and global macroeconomic indicators. All eyes are now on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting to provide clarity on the supply outlook heading into summer.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 5-2-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

News that the next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks—originally scheduled for Saturday in Rome—had been postponed also offered temporary relief by delaying the potential return of Iranian oil to global markets.

Analysts pointed to an increasingly bearish outlook as OPEC+ prepares for a possible production increase. Saudi Arabia continues to signal its readiness to boost output, potentially initiating a shift away from price-supportive cuts, and several OPEC+ members are expected to advocate for a second consecutive month of supply hikes at the upcoming May 5 meeting.

Economic data continued to reflect trade-related headwinds. U.S. GDP contracted slightly in the first quarter, marking the first decline in three years, as businesses ramped up imports to get ahead of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Consumer confidence also slipped, contributing to demand-side concerns and prompting hedge funds to reduce bullish crude positions.

Despite the downbeat macro outlook, U.S. crude inventories declined unexpectedly last week. According to the Energy Information Administration, stockpiles fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million, surprising analysts who had forecast a 429,000-barrel increase. The drop, driven by stronger export and refinery activity, helped limit further downside in prices.

Overall, crude markets remain caught between competing forces—rising supply expectations from OPEC+, deteriorating economic indicators, and intermittent support from market news and geopolitical delays—leaving prices range-bound in the short term.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 5-1-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Brent crude fell $1.13, or 1.76%, to settle at $63.12 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $2.21, or 3.66%, closing at $58.21—the lowest since March 2021. For the month, Brent declined by 15% and WTI by 18%, marking the biggest monthly losses since November 2021.

Saudi Arabia’s recent pivot toward boosting production and encouraging a larger OPEC+ output hike in May, rather than maintaining supply cuts, rattled markets. This move, viewed by analysts as a potential prelude to a production war, stoked fears of oversupply amid already fragile demand. Further acceleration in output is expected to be discussed at the OPEC+ meeting on May 5, with several members reportedly in favor.

Simultaneously, the U.S.-China trade war continued to erode demand forecasts. Tariffs imposed by President Trump on all U.S. imports earlier in the month—and retaliatory Chinese levies—have clouded the outlook for the global economy. Analysts warned that these developments could substantially curtail oil demand growth, especially as travel and industrial activity slow in response to rising costs and uncertainty.

Economic data reinforced bearish sentiment: the U.S. economy contracted in Q1 due to businesses front-loading imports ahead of tariffs, and consumer confidence dropped to a near five-year low in April. A Reuters poll suggested Trump’s trade policy has significantly increased the risk of a global recession this year.

However, U.S. crude stockpiles provided a minor bullish note. Inventories unexpectedly declined by 2.7 million barrels last week to 440.4 million barrels, counter to expectations for a 429,000-barrel increase, as exports and refinery activity picked up.

Overall, a combination of rising supply signals from OPEC+, weakening global economic indicators, and escalating trade tensions is fueling concerns of a prolonged oil market downturn.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-30-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Investors grew increasingly cautious ahead of a potential decision by OPEC+ to accelerate production increases at its June meeting. Reports suggest that several member nations favor a second consecutive month of output hikes. Kazakhstan, a key OPEC+ partner, has already increased exports by 7% in Q1 year-over-year, raising doubts about unity within the group.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China deepened. Economists now see a global recession as increasingly likely due to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs. China has responded with counter-tariffs, significantly reducing trade volumes between the world’s two largest oil consumers. Bob Yawger of Mizuho warned that without trade deals, markets risk entering a “global demand destruction situation.”

Corporate reactions to the trade war highlighted the economic strain. BP reported a 48% drop in quarterly profits due to weaker refining and gas trading.

Analysts forecasted a modest build of 500,000 barrels of crude for the week ending April 25. If confirmed, this would mark the fifth consecutive weekly increase, though far below the same week’s 7.3 million-barrel build last year and the five-year seasonal average of 3.2 million barrels.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-29-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Investor sentiment has increasingly been dominated by trade tensions rather than geopolitical developments, such as U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations or internal divisions within the OPEC+ alliance. Analysts noted that uncertainty surrounding the pace and outcome of U.S.-China negotiations is undermining market confidence, with mixed messages from both Washington and Beijing leaving traders wary. Despite President Trump’s assertions that talks were progressing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials indicated that no active negotiations were underway.

Oil market participants are also closely watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on May 5, where several members are expected to push for an accelerated increase in production for a second consecutive month. Analysts at BNP Paribas downgraded their sentiment, citing risks tied to OPEC+ cohesion and projecting Brent prices to remain in the high $60s during the second quarter.

Meanwhile, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program are continuing, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi voiced caution about the prospects for success. In a separate development, a deadly explosion at Iran’s major port of Bandar Abbas killed at least 40 people and injured over 1,200, further complicating the regional backdrop.

With a volatile mix of trade uncertainty, potential oversupply from OPEC+, and geopolitical risks, oil markets remain under pressure, and sentiment is likely to remain fragile over the coming sessions.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-28-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post RIN Recap 4-28-2025 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.