“I am of certain convinced that the greatest heroes are those who do their duty in the daily grind of domestic affairs whilst the world whirls as a maddening dreidel.”
― Florence Nightingale
Jobs Update
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 4th, 2023 came in at 196,000, up 13,000 people week-over-week.
- Continuing jobless claims came in at 1.688 million people, versus the adjusted number of 1.650 million people from the week prior, up 38,000 people week over week.
Stocks closed mixed on Friday of last week, but lower week over week
The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 169.393 points (+0.5%), closing out the week at 33,869.27, down -56.74 points week over week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 8.968 points (+0.22%) and closed out the week at 4,090.46, down -46.02 points week over week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -71.46 points (-0.6%), and closed the week at 11,718.12, down -288.84 points week over week.
In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 33,847 this morning down 48 points.
WTI closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week over week
Oil prices rose as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on the country’s crude and fuel. Russia plans to reduce its crude oil production in March by 500,000 barrels per day, or about five percent of output, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said last week.
WTI traded up $1.66 per barrel (+2.10%) to close at $79.72 per barrel on Friday of last week, up $6.33 per barrel week over week. Brent traded up US$1.89 per barrel (+2.2%) on Friday of last week, to close at US$86.39 per barrel, up $6.45 per barrel week over week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4 million barrels from the week over week. At 455.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 4% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.0 million barrels week over week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels week over week and are 15% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels week over week and are 25% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Propane prices were down 7 cents per gallon week over week, closing at 85 cents per gallon, down 46 cents per gallon year over year.
Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels during the week ending February 3rd, 2023.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.1 million barrels per day during the week ending February 3rd, 2023, a decrease of 225,000 barrels per day week over week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day, 2.5% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 989,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 692,000 barrels per day during the week ending January 3rd, 2023.
U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.492 million barrels per day for the week ending February 3rd 2023, a decrease of 592,000 barrels per day week over week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.743 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending February 3, 2023 which was 448 thousand barrels per day more week over week.
As of the writing of this report, WTI is poised to open at $78.62 down -$1.10 per barrel from Monday’s close.
North American Rail Traffic
Week Ending February 8th, 2022.
Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-1.73%) in week 5 compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week ending on February 8th were 328,710, up (+0.47%) compared with the same week in 2022, while weekly intermodal volume was 292,565, down (-4.08%) compared to the same week in 2022. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases with the most significant increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+20.43%). The largest decrease was from Coal (-12.86%).
In the east, CSX’s total volumes were up (+4.91%), with the largest decrease coming from Farm Products (-9.26%) and the largest increase was Grain (+39.91%). NS’s volumes were up (+6.07%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-2.67%) and the largest increase from Grain (+52.04%).
In the West, BN’s total volumes were down (-10.22%), with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-18.73%), and the largest increase coming from Petroleum and Petroleum Products (+26.46%). UP’s total rail volumes were up (+0.3%) with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-36.12%) and the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+30.36%).
In Canada, CN’s total rail volumes were down (-5.4%) with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-30.19%) and the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+42.18%). CP’s total rail volumes were up (+5.77%) with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-37.2%) and the largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+53.72%).
KCS’s total rail volumes were down (-13.18%) with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-51.30%) and largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+8.88%).
Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics
Rig Count
North American rig count was up by 3 rigs week over week. U.S. rig count was up 2 rigs week-over-week and up by +126 rigs year over year. The U.S. currently has 761 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by 1 rig week-over-week and up by 31 rigs year-over-year. Canada’s overall rig count is 250 active rigs. Overall, year over year, we are up +157 rigs collectively.
North American Rig Count Summary
A few things we are keeping an eye on
We are watching Petroleum Carloads
The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 26,176 from 25,997, which was a gain of 179 railcars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were lower; CP’s shipments decreased by -9.8% week over week, and CN’s volumes were down by -7.1% week over week. U.S. shipments were mostly higher. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -11.8%.
We are watching Oil Companies
Folks, they are doing well – $200 Billion in combined profits last year and Uncle Sam is noticing as the Biden administration is calling on Congress not just for a windfall tax, but a 4% tax on stock buybacks by energy companies. This would be 4x’s higher than a similar tax that was enacted by the Dems last year. The proposed tax has a slim chance of passing under Republican control. If I was an oil company, you may want to accelerate those buybacks while you can – who knows what we are going to get taxed on next!
We are watching Class 1 Industry Headcount
Headcount at the Class 1’s continues to accelerate at the same time rail traffic continues to soften – we are expecting to see increased levels of service if this trend continues. Below are the latest and greatest December charts:
We have been extremely busy at PFL with return-on-lease programs involving rail car storage instead of returning cars to a shop. A quick turnaround is what we all want and need. Railcar storage in general has been extremely active. Please call PFL now at 239-390-2885 if you are looking for rail car storage, want to troubleshoot a return on lease scenario, or have storage availability. Whether you are a car owner, lessor or lessee, or even a class 1 that wants to help out a customer we are here to “help you help your customer!”
Leasing and Subleasing has been brisk as economic activity picks up. Inquiries have continued to be brisk and strong Call PFL Today for all your rail car needs 239-390-2885
Lease Bids
• 10-20, 20-25 CPC 1232 or 117J tanks needed off of UP CN in Illinois for 3-5 years. Cars are needed for use in Liquid feed service.
• 100-150, 4000CF Covered Hoppers needed off of UP BN in Texas for Purchase or 5 years. Cars are needed for use in Aggregate service.
• 25, 30K 117Rs or Js Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Diesel service.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas for 1-2 Years. Cars are needed for use in Propane service.
• 25, 30K 117Rs or Js Tanks needed off of Any Class One in Midwest for 2-3 years. Cars are needed for use in Ethanol service.
• 10, any capacity Stainless Steel Tanks needed off of any class 1 in Canada for 5-10 years. Cars are needed for use in Alcohol service.
• 50-100, 25.5K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of Any in any location for 5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oil service. Unlined
• 30-50, 30K 117 Tanks needed off of any class 1 in Northeast or Midwest for 1 Year. Cars are needed for use in C5 service. Must have Magrods
• 10-12, 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of UP in Utah to Cali for 1 year. Cars are needed for use in propane service. Needs them in April 2023
• 50, 25.5K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of UP or CSX in multiple locations for 3-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Tall Oil service. Lined or Unlined
• 100-300, 31.8k CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of various class 1s in Canada/US for 1-3 years. Cars are needed for use in Crude service. Various needs in the market to move crude immediately
• 100 , 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of various class 1s in various locations for 6 months to a year. Cars are needed for use in Propane service. Immediate need
• 100-200, 25.5K-28.3K 117J Tanks needed off of CN or CP in Edmonton for 3-6 Months. Cars are needed for use in Crude service. Dirty to Dirty.
• 10-20, 340W Pressure Tanks needed off of CN or CP in Canada for 6 months to 1 year. Cars are needed for use in Propylene service. Immediate
• 25, 20.5K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of BNSF or UP in the west for 1-3 years. Cars are needed for use in magnesium chloride service. SDS onhand
• 5, 23.5K CPC1232 Tanks needed off of CSX in West Virginia for 2 years plus. Cars are needed for use in Polyacrylamide service. Unlined
• 10-100, 20K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of BNSF, CN or UP in the south or midwest for 5 years. Cars are needed for use in Urea Ammonium Nitrate service. CN Miss, BN Oklahoma, UP LA and Iowa- Must be lined
• 10, 50-60 footers Plate F Boxcars needed off of CN and UP or BNSF in Texas in Tennesse & Houston for 1 year. Cars are needed for use in Barium Sulfate service. Requires double door boxcars.
• Up to 60, 5150cf Covered Hoppers needed off of CN, CSX, NS in the east or midwest for 3 years. Cars are needed for use in Fertilizer service. 3-4 hatch gravity dumps
• 30, 5200cf Covered Hoppers needed off of UP in Colorado for 1-3 years. Cars are needed for use in Silica service. Call for details
• 40, 2400cf Gondolas needed off of various class 1s in Indiana for 6 Months. Cars are needed for use in Rock service. Call for details
• 20-30, 14k Any Tanks needed off of BNSF, UP in Texas for 1-3 Years. Cars are needed for use in HCl service. Call for details
• 50-100, 25.5K CPC1232 or 117J Tanks needed off of UP or BN in any location for 3-5 Years. Cars are needed for use in Heavy Fuel Oil service.
• 225, 5250cf-5800cf Covered Hoppers needed off of CSX, NS in the southeast for 5 years. Cars are needed for use in Plastic service. Call for details
Sales Bids
• 10, 25.5K 117, DOT-111, CPC 1232 Tanks needed off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are needed for use in Veg Oil service. Coiled and insulated
• 5, 3200 Covered Hoppers needed off of UP or BN in Texas.
• 2-4, 28K Tanks needed off of BNSF Preferred in Minnesota. Cars are needed for use in Biodiesel service. Coiled and insulated
• 100, Plate F Boxcars needed off of BN or UP in Texas.
• 20-30, 3000 – 3300 PDs Hoppers needed off of BN or UP preferred in any location but prefers the west. Cars are needed for use in Cement service. C612
• 100, 15.7K Tanks needed off of CSX or NS in the east. Cars are needed for use in Molton Sulfer service.
• 20, 2770 Mill Gondolas needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in non-haz soil service. 52-60 ft
• 10, 4000 Hoppers needed off of CSX in the northeast. Cars are needed for use in scrap metal service. Open top hopper
• 20, 17K Tanks needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in corn syrup service.
• 8, Hoppers needed off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars are needed for use in Plastic Pellet service.
Lease Offers
• 100-200, 31.8, 1232` Tanks located off of BN in Chicago. Cars are clean Sale or Lease
• 70, 25.5K, 117J Tanks located off of UP in Texas. Cars are clean Call for information
• 100-200, 31.8K, CPC1232 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Texas. Cars were last used in Gas. Call for information
• 100-200, 31.8K, CPC1232 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Texas. Cars were last used in Diesel. Call for information
• 150, 30K, DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. Cars were last used in Ethanol. Call for information
Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885
PFL offers turn-key solutions to maximize your profitability. Our goal is to provide a win/win scenario for all and we can handle virtually all of your railcar needs. Whether it’s loaded storage, empty storage, subleasing or leasing excess cars, filling orders for cars wanted, mobile railcar cleaning, blasting, mobile railcar repair, or scrapping at strategic partner sites, PFL will do its best to assist you. PFL also assists fleets and lessors with leases and sales and offers Total Fleet Evaluation Services. We will analyze your current leases, storage, and company objectives to draw up a plan of action. We will save Lessor and Lessee the headache and aggravation of navigating through this rapidly changing landscape.
PFL IS READY TO CLEAN CARS TODAY ON A MOBILE BASIS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS
Live Railcar Markets
| CAT | Type | Capacity | GRL | QTY | LOC | Class | Prev. Use | Clean | Offer | Note |
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