PFL Railcar Report 6-21-2022

“The life of the nation is secure only while the nation is honest, truthful, and virtuous.
– Frederick Douglas

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 11th, 2022 came in at 229,000, down -3,000 people week-over-week.

• Continuing claims came in at 1.312 million people, versus the adjusted number of 1.309 million people from the week prior, up 3,000 people week over week.

Stock mixed day over day but down week over week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -38.29 points (-0.13%) closing out the week at 29,888.78, down -1,504.01 points week over week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week up 8.07 points and closed out the week at 3,674.84, down -266.02 points week over week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 152.25 points (+1.43%) and closed the week at 10,798.35 points, down -541.67 points week over week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 30,321.00 this morning up 452 points.

Oil settled lower day over day and week over week.

Oil prices tumbled to a four-week low on Friday on worries that interest rate hikes by major central banks could slow the global economy and cut demand for energy.  Also pressuring prices, the U.S. dollar this week rose to its highest level since December 2002 against a basket of currencies, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$7.11 on Friday of last week, or -6.05%, to settle at $110.18 USD, down -$11.03 USD per barrel week over week, while Brent futures closed down -$6.21 USD or -5.18% to settle at $113.6 USD per barrel, down -$9.47 per barrel week over week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by +2.0 million barrels week over week. At 418.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 14% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by -700,000 barrels week over week and are 11% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by +700,000 barrels week over week and are 23% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by +1.6 million barrels week over week and are 13% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices were flat week over week closing at $1.24 per gallon, but up 31 cents per gallon week over week.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels last week.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day during the week ending June 10th, 2022 and increased by 800,000  barrels per day week over week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day, 2.2% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components)  averaged 650,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 158,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 10th, 2022.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending June 10, 2022 which was 67,000 barrels per day less week over week.

As of the writing of this report, WTI is poised to open at $111.13, up $1.57 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Total North American rail volumes were down 3.3% year over year in week 23 (U.S. -3.6%, Canada +0.9%, Mexico -15.1%) resulting in quarter-to-date volumes that are down 3.6% year over year and year to date volumes that are down 3.7% year over year (U.S. -3.5%, Canada -5.8%, Mexico +2.8%). 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year declines with the largest decreases coming from intermodal (-4.1%) and grain (-17.2%). The largest increase came from motor vehicles & parts (+7.3%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were down 0.3%, with the largest decrease coming from coal (-9.1%). The largest increase came from motor vehicles & parts (+20.3%). NS’s total volumes were down 4.1%, with the largest decrease coming from intermodal (-4.2%).

 In the West, BN’s total volumes were down 6.6%, with the largest decrease coming from intermodal (-9.0%). The largest increase came from stone, sand & gravel (+21.6%). UP’s total volumes were up 1.4%, with the largest increases coming from stone, sand & gravel (+22.3%), and motor vehicles & parts (+17.5%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down 1.3%, with the largest decrease coming from intermodal (-7.7%). The largest increase came from petroleum (+36.1%). Revenue per ton-miles was up 5.0%. CP’s total volumes were up 3.4%, with the largest increase coming from intermodal (+17.9%). The largest decrease came from farm products (-47.3%). Revenue per ton-miles was up 5.8%.

KCS’s total volumes were up 2.2%, with the largest increase coming from metals & products (+69.7%). The largest decrease came from petroleum (-24.7%).

Source: Stephens

Rig Count

North American rig count was up 22 rigs week over week. U.S. rig count was up 7 rigs week-over-week and up by 270 rigs year over year. The U.S. currently has 740 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by 15 rigs week-over-week and up by 39 rigs year-over-year. Canada’s overall rig count is 156 active rigs.  Overall, year over year, we are up 309 rigs collectively.

North American Rig Count Summary

A few things we are keeping an eye on:

Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 24,303 from 24,089, which was a gain of 214 rail cars week-over-week.  Canadian volumes were higher as spreads between heavy sour crude in Canada and the U.S. Gulf Coast made long-haul shipments more attractive. CN’s shipments were up by 6.3% and CP volumes were up by 5.9%.  U.S. shipments were mostly higher.  The NS had the largest percentage increase, up by 21.2%, and the CSX was down by 4%.

  Class 1 Headcount

The Surface Transportation Board (STB) just released May headcount data for the U.S. rails. For the industry as a whole, May 2022 headcount was up 0.5% sequentially versus April’s headcount that was up 0.3% sequentially. NSC, UNP and BNSF saw sequential headcount growth, while CSX and KCS saw sequential declines. Increasing headcount has clearly been a focal point for the industry, particularly with the STB regulatory pressures intensifying. May marked the 4th consecutive month with sequential headcount increases for the industry; however, the ramp has been modest at best and there is still significant improvement needed to support better rail service. Most of the rails are pointing towards additional momentum in the second half of 2022, and we expect this data to remain under a microscope in the months ahead.

  Natural Gas

Last week we reported the explosion of an LNG plant – Caused Freeport LNG, operator of one of the largest U.S. export plants producing liquefied natural gas (LNG), to shut down on Wednesday, June 8th of last week, and said they would be down for 3 weeks. However, Freeport LNG announced on Wednesday of last week that the facility would be shut down for three months while partial operations are restored and will not be up in full operations until year-end.  The announcement has created havoc here in the U.S. and abroad with prices falling here in the U.S. backing up supply and worldwide LNG prices rising.

 The shutdown is a blow to President Joe Biden’s efforts to help Europe wean itself quickly from Russian gas by expanding LNG exports from the United States. The U.S. oil and gas industry has also promoted its role in supplying gas to Europe before and after the invasion. But a significant portion of that supply is now unavailable.   However, The adoption of the EU oil sanctions appears to have led to Russia retaliating by holding back its natural gas exports. Russian gas flows to Europe have seen hefty drops over the course of last week, with Italy, Germany, and France all receiving less than half of their usual volumes. Russia’s Gazprom blames sanctions that hindered maintenance, while European countries see the unexpected declines as a sign that the Kremlin is trying to retaliate for all the past sanctions by limiting gas supply. So now, it is not just oil and oil products that trade way above historical averages, natural gas is way above the norm, too. Stay tuned to PFL for further updates. We are watching this one!

Freeport LNG Facility

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We have been extremely busy at PFL with return on lease programs involving rail car storage instead of returning cars to a shop.  A quick turnaround is what we all want and need.   Railcar storage in general has been extremely active.  Please call PFL now at 239-390-2885 if you are looking for rail car storage, want to troubleshoot a return on lease scenario, or have storage availability.  Whether you are a car owner, lessor or lessee, or even a class 1 that wants to help out a customer we are here to “help you help your customer!”

Leasing and Subleasing has been brisk as economic activity picks up. Inquiries have continued to be brisk and strong Call PFL Today for all your rail car needs 239-390-2885

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PFL is seeking:

• Up to 40 5500 Covered Gons 286 unlined CSX/NS preferred but will consider other
• 30 boxcars on UP or CP for 3 years to run from TX to Edmonton – negotiable
• 6-10 Open top 4200 gons for hauling scrap NS in Ohio for 1-3 years
• 100, 2480 CU-FT Ag Gons needed in Texas off of the UP for 1-3 Years.
• 50, 30K+ Tank cars are needed in several locations. Can take in various locations off various Class 1’s. Can have prior Ethanol heel or Gasoline heel.
• 300 5800 Covered hoppers needed for plastic – 5-year lease – negotiable
• 50, 5800cuft or larger Covered Hopper for use in DDG needed in the Midwest for 3-4 years. Immediate need.
• 10-20 Covered hopper grain cars in the midwest 5200-5500 2-3 years
• 20-30, 19K Tank Cars for Caustic Soda needed in Texas off of the UP or BN.
• 100 Moulton Sulfur cars for purchase – any location – negotiable
• 50 Ag Gons 2500-2800cuft 286k GRL in the east CSX for 5 years negotiable
• 100 15K Tanks 286 for Molten Sulfur in the Northeast CSX/NS for 6 months negotiable
• 100, 5800 Covered Hoppers 286 can be West or East for Plastic 3-5 years
• 70, 117R or J needed for Ethanol for 3 years.  Can take in the South.
• 50, 6500+ cu-ft Mill Gon or Open Top Hopper for wood chips in the Southeast for 5 Years.
• 20, 19,000 Gal Stainless cars in Louisiana UP for nitric acid 1-3 years – Oct negotiable
• 10, 6,300CF or greater covered hoppers are needed in the Midwest.

PFL is offering:

• 48, 50ft Hicube Box Cars for sale located in TN on the CSX.
• Various tank cars for lease with dirty-to-dirty service including, nitric acid, gasoline, diesel, crude oil, Lease terms negotiable, clean service also available in various tanks and locations including Rs 111s, and Js – Selection is Dwindling. Call Today!
• 200 Clean C/I 25.5K 117J in Texas. Brand New Cars!
• 150 25.5 111’s in the midwest for sale – Negotiable
• Up to 150 sand cars for sale at various locations and class ones – Great Price!
• 150 117R’s 31.8 clean for lease in Texas KCS – negotiable
• 31.8K Tank Cars last in Diesel. Dirty to dirty in Texas
• 100 117Rs dirty last in Gasoline in Texas for lease Negotiable
• 99 340W Pressure Cars various locations Butane and Propane dirty negotiable
• 100 29K C/I 1232 cars for lease. Dirty in Heavy Crude and can be returned dirty.
• 100 117Rs 29K clean last used in crude Washington State – price negotiable sale or lease
• 100 111s of various volumes and locations last in fuel oil dirty price negotiable
• Various Hoppers for lease 3000-6250 CF 263 and 268 multiple locations negotiable

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Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL offers turn-key solutions to maximize your profitability. Our goal is to provide a win/win scenario for all and we can handle virtually all of your railcar needs. Whether it’s loaded storage, empty storage, subleasing or leasing excess cars, filling orders for cars wanted, mobile railcar cleaning, blasting, mobile railcar repair, or scrapping at strategic partner sites, PFL will do its best to assist you. PFL also assists fleets and lessors with leases and sales and offers Total Fleet Evaluation Services. We will analyze your current leases, storage, and company objectives to draw up a plan of action. We will save Lessor and Lessee the headache and aggravation of navigating through this rapidly changing landscape.

PFL IS READY TO CLEAN CARS TODAY ON A MOBILE BASIS WE ARE CURRENTLY IN EAST TEXAS

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Live Railcar Markets