Bent crude futures settled up 96 cents, or 0.94%, at $103.54 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 25 cents, or 0.26%, to close at $96.60 a barrel. Despite Friday’s rebound, both contracts posted weekly losses amid continued volatility driven by shifting expectations surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Brent fell 5.48% for the week, while WTI declined 8.37%.
“We have so many headlines back and forth, it’s hard to keep up,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. “The story now is Iran will deliver the uranium for the lifting of sanctions. But they keep changing the news before the ink is dry on the newspaper.”
Diplomatic activity intensified on Friday. A source in Islamabad told Iran’s IRNA news agency that Pakistan’s army chief had traveled to Iran, while a senior Iranian official told Reuters that gaps between Washington and Tehran had narrowed.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also pointed to tentative progress. “There’s been some progress. I wouldn’t exaggerate it. I wouldn’t diminish it,” Rubio said after a NATO ministers’ meeting in Sweden. “There’s more work to be done. We’re not there yet. I hope we get there.” Rubio added that the United States remains in constant communication with Pakistan, which is helping mediate the negotiations.
Still, major disagreements remain over Iran’s uranium stockpile and future control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“I think we’re very much subject to the headlines,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. “We seem headed for a resolution, but the level of clarity is spectacular.”
Analysts warned that global oil inventories continue to tighten as shipping through Hormuz remains severely constrained. “Global oil inventories have been depleting at an alarming pace as oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz slow to a trickle,” said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. He added that recurring optimism about a near-term truce, combined with bearish rhetoric whenever Brent approaches $110 a barrel, has prevented prices from moving significantly higher.
Separately, a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran on Friday in coordination with the United States to support ongoing negotiations, according to a Reuters source familiar with the discussions.
Six weeks into the fragile ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, elevated oil prices continue fueling concerns about inflation and global economic growth.
Research firm BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel from $81.50, citing persistent supply deficits, damage to Gulf energy infrastructure, and an expected six-to-eight-week recovery period even after hostilities end.
Before the conflict, roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The war has removed an estimated 14 million barrels per day of oil supply from global markets, including exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has warned that full oil flows through the strait may not return before early or mid-2027, even if the conflict ends immediately.