Oil prices edged lower on Monday but held near six-month highs as traders positioned ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, while also grappling with renewed economic uncertainty following fresh upheaval around U.S. tariff policy. Brent crude settled down 27 cents, or 0.38%, at $71.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 17 cents, or 0.26%, to $66.31.
Iran has signaled it may be willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and recognition of its right to enrich uranium. U.S. envoys are scheduled to meet an Iranian delegation in Geneva later this week, keeping diplomatic channels open even as the risk of military escalation lingers. Traders continue to assign a meaningful geopolitical premium to prices, reflecting the possibility that talks could falter and trigger conflict in a region that accounts for a significant share of global oil supply.
At the same time, broader macro uncertainty weighed on sentiment. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling last week struck down key elements of President Donald Trump’s tariff framework, prompting questions about the future direction of trade policy. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it would pause certain tariff collections, but Trump later indicated he would raise a temporary blanket tariff rate to 15%, adding to investor confusion. Equity markets weakened, and oil followed amid concerns that prolonged trade friction could dampen economic growth and fuel demand.
In the U.S. products market, a winter storm sweeping across the Northeast pushed diesel crack spreads up roughly 5%, offering some support to refining margins.
For now, crude remains caught between opposing forces — elevated geopolitical risk underpinning prices and macroeconomic uncertainty capping further gains — with upcoming U.S.–Iran talks likely to set the next directional move.