Oil prices moved lower on Monday as traders weighed supply disruptions tied to escalating U.S.–Venezuela tensions against persistent oversupply concerns and renewed optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. Brent crude settled at $60.56, down $0.56, while WTI finished at $56.82, a decline of $0.62. Both benchmarks are coming off losses of more than 4% last week, driven by expectations that global oil markets will remain oversupplied into 2026.
Developments in Venezuela provided some offsetting support, as the country’s oil exports have fallen sharply following the U.S. seizure of a tanker last week and the imposition of new sanctions on shipping firms and vessels linked to Venezuelan crude. Heightened enforcement measures have disrupted loadings, with reports of tankers turning away from ports amid growing operational and security risks. A reported cyberattack on Venezuela’s state oil company further complicated exports, though ample global supplies and barrels already en route to key buyers have limited the overall market impact.
At the same time, progress in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine weighed on prices. Recent talks between Ukrainian officials and U.S. envoys were described as constructive, fueling speculation that a peace agreement could eventually lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian oil and a return of additional supply to global markets. Even the possibility of such an outcome has reinforced bearish sentiment in an already well-supplied market.
Broader macroeconomic signals added to the pressure. Weak economic data from China pointed to slowing factory activity and softer consumer demand, while risk-off sentiment across global financial markets further dampened appetite for commodities. Major banks continue to project widening oil surpluses beyond 2025, with supply growth expected to significantly outpace demand through at least 2026, keeping crude prices under pressure despite ongoing geopolitical risks.