Oil prices finished lower on Friday, capping a weekly decline of roughly 4% as persistent oversupply concerns and the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement outweighed geopolitical tensions tied to Venezuela. Brent settled at $61.12, down $0.16, while WTI closed at $57.44, also down $0.16. Both benchmarks had already fallen about 1.5% on Thursday and posted their steepest weekly losses in several months.
Market sentiment remains dominated by supply-side pressures. Traders continue to focus on expectations that global production will exceed demand well into next year, muting reactions to isolated geopolitical disruptions. The recent U.S. seizure of a sanctioned oil tanker near Venezuela failed to provide meaningful support, as market participants viewed the action as insufficient to materially tighten supply in an already well-stocked market.
Forecasts released this week reinforced the bearish tone. One outlook projects global oil supply exceeding demand by nearly 3.8 million barrels per day next year — close to 4% of total world consumption — while another sees supply and demand roughly balanced in 2026. Despite differences in methodology, both point to limited upside for prices in the near term.
Some supportive elements remain in the background, including rising U.S.–Venezuela tensions and continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including a recent hit on a Caspian Sea oil platform. However, these risks have so far failed to offset the broader glut narrative.
Meanwhile, Russian seaborne oil product exports declined only modestly in November, as the completion of refinery maintenance helped cushion weaker flows from southern export routes such as the Black Sea and Azov Sea. That resilience has further reinforced the view that global supplies remain ample, keeping downward pressure on crude prices as the market heads into year-end.