Oil prices settled higher on Friday, edging to their highest levels in two weeks as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened and geopolitical uncertainty continued to shape supply outlooks. Brent gained $0.49 to settle at $63.75, while WTI finished $0.41 higher at $60.08. Both benchmarks logged weekly gains, with Brent up about 1% and WTI up roughly 3%.
Traders increased bets that the Fed will cut rates at next week’s meeting after fresh inflation and consumer-spending data pointed to cooling momentum in the U.S. economy. Lower borrowing costs would support economic activity and, in turn, energy demand. The dollar also weakened, adding to the bid for crude. Efforts by U.S. and Chinese officials to continue implementing their trade agreement helped reinforce a broader improvement in risk sentiment.
Geopolitics remained a key influence. The lack of progress in this week’s U.S.–Russia discussions on ending the war in Ukraine kept expectations low for any near-term easing of sanctions on Moscow’s oil sector. At the same time, investors continued to weigh the potential for additional disruptions to Venezuelan supplies after President Trump signaled that U.S. action against the country’s drug-trafficking networks could begin “very soon,” raising questions about risks to Venezuela’s crude output.
Concerns around Russian supply were amplified by reports that G7 and EU members are considering replacing the current Russian oil price-cap system with a ban on maritime services, a move that would tighten enforcement and reduce Moscow’s export flexibility. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes continued to target Russian infrastructure, including a fire at the port of Temryuk on Friday, reinforcing the sense of instability surrounding Black Sea logistics.
Russia, for its part, offered India expanded and uninterrupted fuel supplies during President Putin’s visit to New Delhi, though Indian refiners have recently shifted some volumes toward non-sanctioned sellers taking advantage of widening discounts. The conflicting signals on Russian flows underscored the broader dynamic in the market: geopolitical risks providing support even as expectations of higher global supply keep rallies constrained.
Overall, crude ended the week with modest strength but remained capped by the persistent view that the market is headed toward surplus conditions in 2026.