Crude futures slipped modestly on Friday as the market continued to weigh geopolitical risk against signs of ample global supply, while traders looked ahead to Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for direction on early-2026 production levels. Brent’s expiring January contract settled at $63.20, down $0.14, while the more active February contract ended at $62.38. WTI settled at $58.55, down $0.10 from Wednesday’s close after returning to trade following a system outage at CME Group.
Despite a small weekly gain, both benchmarks finished lower for the fourth straight month — their longest monthly losing streak since 2023 — as expectations for a sizeable surplus next year continued to pressure prices. Record U.S. production added to the bearish tone, with September output climbing to 13.84 million bpd, the highest on record, according to the latest EIA data.
Earlier in the week, crude came under sharp pressure on reports that U.S.-backed peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia were advancing, raising the possibility that sanctions could eventually be rolled back and more Russian barrels could return to the market. Prices recovered over the past several sessions as talks stretched on and traders reassessed the likelihood of an imminent agreement.
Analysts noted that refiners’ strong margins have helped underpin near-term crude demand, but the broader supply outlook remains decisive. Forecasts continue to point to a surplus through 2026, and survey expectations for average Brent pricing next year have edged lower.
Markets are also watching for potential signals from OPEC+ this weekend. Delegates expect the group to leave existing output targets unchanged while discussing how members’ maximum production capacities will be assessed going forward. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is expected to reduce its official selling price for Asian buyers again in January, reflecting the well-supplied market and the weakening demand backdrop.