Oil prices eased slightly on Monday as export operations resumed at Russia’s Black Sea hub of Novorossiisk after a two-day suspension, easing immediate supply concerns triggered by last week’s Ukrainian drone strikes.
Brent crude settled $0.19 lower at $64.20 per barrel, while WTI fell $0.18 to $59.91. Both benchmarks had gained more than 2% on Friday, closing the prior week modestly higher after the temporary shutdown of Novorossiisk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal disrupted roughly 2% of global oil supply.
Loadings resumed on Sunday, according to port data, though analysts said risks to Russian infrastructure remain elevated. Ukraine’s military confirmed additional weekend strikes on the Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries, continuing a pattern of attacks aimed at Russia’s downstream assets.
“The resumption of exports brought some early weakness, but traders remain cautious given the frequency of recent Ukrainian attacks,” said Scott Shelton of TP ICAP Group.
Markets also kept focus on the pending U.S. sanctions set to take effect November 21, which will ban transactions with Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft. Washington is considering extending restrictions to foreign companies that continue business with Moscow.
OPEC+ earlier this month reaffirmed its plan to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause additional hikes during the first quarter of 2026. Analysts said the move is unlikely to offset expectations of a persistent surplus.
An ING report projected the oil market will remain oversupplied through 2026, though it noted growing risks from drone attacks, maritime tensions, and Iran’s seizure of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman last week.
BOK Financial’s Dennis Kissler said volatility will likely persist as traders weigh geopolitical threats against ample supply. “Choppy price action is the new norm,” Kissler said. “Geopolitical risk is elevated, but so is global output.”
Positioning data showed that hedge funds and other speculators increased net long holdings in ICE Brent by more than 12,000 contracts last week, largely driven by short-covering. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said this reflects caution about betting against crude amid sanctions uncertainty.
Longer term, Goldman Sachs reiterated its view that oil prices are likely to drift lower through 2026, forecasting an average surplus of around 2 million barrels per day as production growth continues to outpace demand.