Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike against signs that global inventories may keep rising through next year. Brent crude settled 2¢ lower (-0.03%) at $65.45, while U.S. WTI gained 4¢ (+0.06%) to $61.73. Both benchmarks rose more than 1% on Monday after OPEC and its allies agreed to raise production by just 137,000 bpd in November—matching October’s increase and defying calls for a larger boost.
“The group remains cautious amid growing expectations of a supply surplus in Q4 2025 and into next year,” ING analysts said.
Saudi Arabia’s decision to keep its Arab Light OSP to Asia unchanged added to muted sentiment, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes noted, while Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC raised its Murban OSP slightly to $70.22 a barrel.
On the demand side, India’s fuel use rose 7% y/y in September, but globally, inventories are trending higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration now expects U.S. output to reach 13.53 million bpd this year, up from 13.44 million bpd previously, and sees global stockpiles climbing through 2026 as non-OPEC+ supply expands.
JPMorgan estimates global inventories—including floating storage—rose 123 million barrels in September, while China continues to build new storage sites to accelerate strategic stockpiling.
Geopolitical risks remain a counterbalance. Ukraine’s ongoing drone strikes forced Russia’s Kirishi refinery to keep its main crude unit offline until November, curbing some Russian fuel exports.
Traders now await U.S. API inventory data for fresh direction. “The market is locked in a sideways pattern, waiting to see what happens with inventories,” said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group.