Brent crude settled at $66.02, up 52 cents (0.79%), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $62.26, up 39 cents (0.63%). Both benchmarks had been up more than $1 earlier in the session. Prices fell more than 3% last week, including a sharp 2% drop on Friday after weak U.S. jobs data.
OPEC+ agreed Sunday to raise production in October by 137,000 bpd, a modest hike compared to earlier months when output was lifted by over half a million barrels per day. Analysts said the smaller move underlined the group’s pivot toward defending market share rather than price support. “By allowing supply back into a market moving toward surplus, OPEC+ is playing offense, not defense,” said Claudio Galimberti of Rystad Energy.
Saudi Arabia quickly followed the decision with a cut to its Arab Light crude OSP for Asia, signaling a more competitive push for market share. Still, the immediate impact of the latest increase may be muted as some members are already overproducing, while others face compensation cuts.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump said Sunday he is ready to enter a “second phase” of sanctions against Russia or its oil buyers over the Ukraine war. Russia escalated its assault over the weekend with its largest air attack yet, killing at least four in Kyiv and damaging government buildings. Analysts noted that tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian crude could disrupt global flows and lend support to prices.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs said it expects a slightly larger global oil surplus in 2026 as supply gains in the Americas offset downgrades to Russian output, leaving its 2025 forecast unchanged and projecting Brent/WTI averages at $56/$52 for 2026.