Oil prices rebounded by 1% on Friday, closing the week nearly unchanged as investors weighed diminishing prospects for a quick Ukraine war resolution that could ease sanctions on Russian oil. Brent settled up 70 cents (1%) at $70.58, while WTI rose 63 cents (1%) to $67.18. This followed Thursday’s 1.5% and 1.7% declines, respectively. Both benchmarks ended the week close to last Friday’s levels, with Brent at $70.36 and WTI at $67.04 a week ago.
Russia expressed support for a U.S.-proposed ceasefire, but clarifications and conditions made a quick resolution unlikely. Meanwhile, Trump urged Russia to agree to the ceasefire, while sanctions on Russian oil remained intact, causing Chinese state firms to limit Russian oil imports over sanction risks. Elsewhere, China and Russia backed Iran against U.S. demands for nuclear negotiations, pushing for all sanctions to be lifted before talks resume.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reaffirmed its forecast of global oil oversupply by 600,000 bpd in 2025, citing rising U.S. production and weaker-than-expected demand. Trade tensions and unstable macroeconomic conditions also led the IEA to cut its demand growth forecasts for late 2024 and early 2025. Despite geopolitical risks supporting potential supply disruptions, analysts at Commerzbank and ANZ pointed to rising OPEC+ supply and demand-side risks as barriers to a sustained oil price recovery.
In the U.S., oil rig counts increased by one, according to Baker Hughes, signaling modest production growth.