Oil prices closed at their highest level since February 11, 2025 on supply concerns in Russia and the U.S., while the market awaited clarity on sanctions amid U.S.-led peace talks on Ukraine. Brent crude rose 20 cents (0.3%) to $76.04 per barrel, and WTI climbed 40 cents (0.6%) to $72.25 per barrel.
Supply risks remain as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) have reduced oil flows by 30-40%, equating to a 380,000 bpd supply cut. In the U.S., cold weather in North Dakota could lead to a 150,000 bpd production decline. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may delay its planned April production boost.
Despite speculation of a U.S.-brokered peace deal, Goldman Sachs analysts believe sanctions relief on Russia would not significantly boost oil supply, as Russia is already constrained by its OPEC+ production target of 9 million bpd rather than by current restrictions.
Geopolitical factors continue to weigh on the market, with Israel and Hamas set for indirect negotiations over a Gaza ceasefire, which could ease concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed tariffs could dampen oil demand by raising consumer goods costs and slowing global economic growth.