Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday, driven by supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S., while talks to end the war in Ukraine limited gains as a peace deal could ease sanctions on Russian crude. Brent crude rose 62 cents (0.8%) to $75.84 per barrel, while WTI climbed $1.11 (1.6%) to $71.85 per barrel, catching up after Monday’s U.S. market holiday.
A key supply disruption came from Ukrainian drone attacks on a pumping station of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), reducing oil flows by 30-40%—a potential 380,000 bpd supply cut, according to Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak. Additionally, Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiisk suspended loadings due to a storm, further tightening supply. Meanwhile, in the U.S., a cold snap in North Dakota cut production by as much as 150,000 bpd.
However, U.S.-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia—which excluded Ukraine and saw Russia hardening its stance—kept prices in check. A potential peace deal could lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude, increasing global supply. Analysts remain cautious, with Mizuho’s Robert Yawger noting that the market is waiting for further developments.
Looking ahead, U.S. crude inventory data due Thursday could show lower net imports, which may support prices. However, heavy refinery maintenance starting in March could weigh on demand. Market participants are also watching OPEC+ for any decision on delaying the planned April production boost.