The rally was driven by continued uncertainty surrounding the conflict and severely impaired shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Just four commodity vessels transited the waterway on Thursday, well below the recent 10-day average of approximately 15, underscoring the continued disruption to a key global energy supply route.

Fuel markets remain particularly tight, with U.S. diesel prices reaching record highs. Supply disruptions affecting Middle Eastern production and Russian refining capacity, combined with declining distillate inventories, have pushed average U.S. diesel prices to approximately $5.85 per gallon. Higher diesel costs are also increasing inflationary pressures across transportation, agriculture, and other sectors.

Analysts raised their near-term oil price outlooks as the reopening of Hormuz continues to take longer than expected. Citi increased its third-quarter Brent forecast to $86 per barrel, while ANZ raised its short-term forecast to $95, citing additional upside risk if the conflict intensifies.

Meanwhile, Iraq increased August oil exports to approximately 2.34 million barrels per day from 1.35 million bpd in July, providing some additional supply. However, analysts noted that this week’s price rally appears driven primarily by geopolitical uncertainty and fears of future disruptions rather than evidence of a significant new decline in physical Middle Eastern exports.

With military tensions continuing, Hormuz traffic remaining far below normal levels, and refined fuel supplies tightening, oil markets ended the week carrying a significantly elevated geopolitical risk

The post Petroleum Daily Report 9-4-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and additional threats from Israel against Iranian infrastructure kept geopolitical risks elevated. The market is watching closely to see whether this week’s military escalation develops into a broader and more sustained conflict that could further disrupt regional energy flows.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with just six commodity vessels transiting the waterway on Wednesday, down from 11 the previous day and well below the 10-day average of approximately 13. Iran has also expanded its list of vessels deemed non-compliant and subject to fines, seizure, or detention.

Offsetting some supply concerns, comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting openness to peace negotiations with Ukraine raised the possibility of reduced attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a potential normalization of fuel supplies. Iraq has also increased oil exports, reaching approximately 2.34 million barrels per day in August compared with 1.35 million bpd in July.

With global inventories continuing to decline and Hormuz traffic remaining far below normal levels, oil prices remain supported by a substantial geopolitical risk premium despite signs that additional supply from Iraq and a potential easing of Russian disruptions could provide some relief.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 9-3-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The latest escalation marked the largest exchange of fire between Washington and Tehran since July, with U.S. forces striking targets along Iran’s southern coast and Iran retaliating against U.S. positions across the region. The renewed fighting has increased uncertainty surrounding physical oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic remains severely restricted.

Only four commodity vessels transited the strait on Wednesday, below the recent 10-day average of approximately 13. Iran also indicated that renewed U.S. attacks could further restrict maritime traffic, although alternative supply routes and workaround shipments have helped prevent a more severe supply shortfall.

Additional support came from a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories. Commercial crude stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel decline.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current output policy for October, while ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia continue to add uncertainty to global energy markets.

With military tensions escalating, Hormuz traffic remaining constrained, and U.S. inventories declining sharply, oil markets continue to carry a substantial geopolitical risk premium despite the availability of alternative supply routes.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 9-2-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The rally accelerated after the U.S. launched new strikes against Iranian targets, diminishing hopes that last weekend’s exchange of attacks would remain contained. Tehran responded defiantly, warning it would prevent oil exports from the Gulf, while continued threats to commercial shipping reinforced concerns over the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Supply concerns are also contributing to a sharp increase in refined fuel prices. Global refinery disruptions, particularly in the Middle East and Russia, have pushed diesel prices sharply higher. U.S. diesel futures reached a 52-month high, while refining margins climbed to record levels as fuel supplies tightened.

Markets are now watching U.S. inventory data for signs of additional supply pressure. Analysts expect crude inventories to have declined by approximately 800,000 barrels in the week ending August 28, which would mark the first weekly inventory draw in five weeks.

With direct military action escalating and shipping through Hormuz remaining severely constrained, markets are pricing in a significantly higher geopolitical risk premium and the growing possibility of sustained global supply disruptions.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 9-1-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The rally followed an exchange of military strikes between the U.S. and Iran, marking the first direct escalation between the two sides in roughly a month. The renewed conflict forced traders to rebuild a geopolitical risk premium as prospects for a near-term de-escalation weakened.

Supply concerns remain centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where mediation efforts to restore normal shipping traffic have stalled. Visible commodity vessel traffic through the waterway averaged just five vessels per day over the weekend, although some Gulf oil exports continue to move through the strait, limiting the upside in prices.

Meanwhile, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell by approximately 3.1 million barrels last week to 286.6 million barrels. The Trump administration has indicated it intends to use Venezuelan oil secured through a potential agreement to begin replenishing the SPR, which has fallen to near its lowest level in more than four decades.

With direct military action resuming and Hormuz negotiations showing little progress, oil markets have once again shifted toward pricing a higher near-term risk of supply disruption.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 8-31-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The post RIN Recap 8-31-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending August 22, 2026 came in at 203,000, versus the adjusted number of 207,000 people from the week prior, down 4,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,778,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,796,000 people from the week prior, down 18,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week, but higher week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -9.45 points (-0.02%), closing out the week at 53,559.99, up 282.98 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -19.23 points (-0.25%), and closed out the week at 7,711.76, up 37.39 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -138.93 points (-0.52%), and closed out the week at 26,402.42, up 221.97 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 53,489 this morning, down 95 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$0.13 per barrel (-0.2%), to close at $83.40 on Friday of last week, and down -$3.66 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -$0.39 per barrel (-0.4%), to close at $89.31, and down -$5.08 per barrel week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for October delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$16.45 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$64.80 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 100,000 barrels week-over-week. At 428.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels week-over-week and are 14% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 32% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

Propane prices closed at 72.8 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 4.9 cents per gallon week-over-week, and up 6.1 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 100,000 barrels week-over-week during the week ending August 21, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026, a decrease of 435,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 565,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 176,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.792 million barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026, a decrease of 274,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.65 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026, which was 1,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $86.62, up $3.24 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending August 26, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+4.35%) in week 35, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending August 26, 2026 were 337,309, up (+4.41%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 361,052, up (+4.29%) year over year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-6.16%). The largest increase was Metallic Ores and Metals (+23.47%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+5.15%), with the largest decrease coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-7.95%), while the largest increase came from Other (+17.83%). NS’s total volumes were up (+2.79%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+28.06%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-4.63%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+3.56%), with the largest increase coming from Forest Products (+28.56%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-14.73%). UP’s total volumes were up (+5.09%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+29.04%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-8.01%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+6.81%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+40.95%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-14.73%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+5.48%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+54.27%), while the largest decrease came from Farm Products (-20.68%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was unchanged week-over-week, but up by +52 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 588 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week, but up by +36 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 211 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +88 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 30,480 from 30,201 which was an increase of +279 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +5.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were also higher by +5.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mixed. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +3.0% week-over-week. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -8.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA). DOE’s most recent publicly documented award total remains more than 133 million barrels, while the department has continued executing the broader 172-million-barrel commitment.

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions. The IEA’s coordinated action remains the largest emergency oil-stock release in the agency’s history.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 289.726 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since December 1982. The SPR declined by 3.7 million barrels during the week ending August 21, 2026. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 123.599 million barrels, equivalent to an average of roughly 882,850 barrels per day through the week ending August 21, 2026. 

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have partially recovered from their initial near-shutdown, the IEA continues to identify significant uncertainty surrounding the pace and durability of the recovery.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. DOE has stated that its exchange structure is designed to return the borrowed crude with additional premium barrels, with the stated objective of strengthening the SPR over time.

We Are Watching Canadian Crude by Rail

The Canadian Energy regulator reported on August 26, 2026, that 81,226 barrels per day were exported during the month of June 2026, down from 87,977 barrels per day in May of 2026, a decrease of 6,751 barrels per day month-over-month.

Crude by rail will always be necessary out of Canada for stranded oil not connected by pipelines. Raw bitumen, which is shipped as a non-haz product and is not able to flow in pipelines, is competitive with pipeline tolls and is a growing market to keep an eye on. In a normal predictable market, we really need to see basis WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average) blowout to -18 per barrel for sustained periods of time to make economic sense. Current rail rates from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast have averaged roughly $17 per-barrel, making rail competitive whenever WCS-WTI spreads exceed $18 per barrel, including quality adjustments.

This is not a fleet that switches overnight: car owners and lessors want five-year commitments, the Class Ones expect similar term, and new 117J cars carry one to two year build times.

Folks, what we are in now is not a normal and predictable market.  Some would say nothing has been normal or predictable since COVID.  With pipelines out of Alberta full or nearly full one consideration is the outright price of oil itself, with the conflict in Iran not seeming to go away anytime soon, some may step up, take on some cars to get barrels to market quickly.  Mistreamers won’t do that, however, we may see the producer step up.  For the producer it is all about what their netback is, not how much it costs to get there. The producer can pay more than $18 per barrel at some point if that is their only outlet and pipelines are full. The risk reward ratio may make sense with elevated prices but the old saying – what goes up, must come down, it is just a matter of when.  We always have our eyes on this one please stay tuned to PFL or call the desk to trouble shoot.

We Continue to Watch Line 5

A parked, unoccupied semi truck rolled into an open excavation at an Enbridge Line 5 valve project near Saxon, in Iron County, Wisconsin, at about 10 a.m. last Tuesday, striking the pipe and releasing natural gas liquids into the air. Nearby rural homes were evacuated, power was cut to 55 customers inside the evacuation zone to eliminate ignition sources, and a temporary no-fly zone went up over the site. Line 5 has been shut since, taking 540,000 barrels per day of light crude and natural gas liquids out of service between Superior, Wisconsin and Sarnia, Ontario. Enbridge said Wednesday of last week that it expects to return the line to service on Saturday September 5. 

Line 5 Incident  –  Posted August 29th 2026

Source: Enbridge – PFL Analytics

Line 5 Incident  – Posted August 29th 2026

Source: Enbridge – PFL Analytics

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources sent Enbridge a letter on Thursday of last week asking the company to halt work on the $1 billion, 41-mile reroute around the Bad River Band reservation until the incident on the existing line is resolved. Secretary Karen Hyun wrote that the agency is deeply concerned about the spill and immensely frustrated by other recent noncompliance events and attached more than 20 questions covering the volume released, the worst case release of propane and butane vapors, and the timeline for controlling it. The frustration has a paper trail: the DNR has issued four notices of non-compliance on the reroute project, and there have been at least four releases of drilling fluid, the largest running as high as 1,900 gallons in late June. Governor Tony Evers said the state is exceedingly concerned about recent events involving Enbridge and wants answers expeditiously. The state has also noted that Enbridge took an hour and 15 minutes to call the spills hotline.

Michigan moved in the same week. Governor Gretchen Whitmer filed a response brief last Friday in the federal suit Enbridge brought in 2020 after she and the Department of Natural Resources revoked the 1953 Straits of Mackinac easement, arguing that the Straits belong to the people of Michigan and not to oil companies or the federal government. The reference to the federal government is pointed: Judge Robert Jonker sided with Enbridge on the shutdown question in December, the state appealed to the Sixth Circuit in January, and the Trump administration filed an amicus brief in July supporting Enbridge.

Attorney General Dana Nessel’s separate closure case sits in Ingham County Circuit Court, paused pending the shutdown appeal. The Michigan Supreme Court vacated the Public Service Commission permit for the Straits tunnel on July 31st and sent the analysis back to the commission, and the Seventh Circuit upheld the Bad River trespass ruling the day before that, though it gave Enbridge more time to finish the reroute Wisconsin now wants stopped. Every one of these files has been arguing about hypothetical failure modes, and last Tuesday one of them stopped being hypothetical.

Sarnia and the Ontario and Michigan propane market can absorb a one week outage without much drama – lots of propane in storage right now, and Enbridge has roughly 150 people on the response. We expect Enbridge to get the incident cleaned up and operations to resume quickly but the ongoing legal battle seemingly will continue.  We will continue to watch enbridge line 5

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne published Canada’s counter-tariff list last Tuesday, running close to 100 pages and more than 700 line items. Duties of 15%, 25% and 50% land on C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, with existing steel and aluminum rates doubling to 50%. Ottawa paired the list with a C$7.5 billion support package for exposed businesses and workers, and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said the targets were selected with U.S. midterm races in mind.

Steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics are the named sectors, which is to say most of the list rides on a flatcar, a boxcar or a centerbeam in one direction or the other. The U.S. duties cover roughly 5.5% of Canadian exports south and the Canadian counter covers roughly 6% of U.S. exports north, so both governments have chosen to tax about one dollar in seventeen and leave the rest of the flow alone. Energy, potash and critical minerals remain carved out on both sides, so crude, refined products and fertilizer keep moving on current terms.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith spent the week arguing against the one lever that would actually bite. Curtailing or surcharging hydrocarbon exports, she said, invites an equal and more forceful response, reciprocal curtailment of U.S. crude and refined product into central Canada would bring Ontario and Quebec to a grinding halt, and Washington can backfill Canadian heavy with Venezuelan barrels by reversing existing lines, at which point Canada may lose the customer entirely and maybe forever. Ontario’s Doug Ford says that everything is on the table and Quebec’s Christine Frechette will not exclude anything, which is how a country ends up with an energy export policy set by whichever premier is nearest a microphone.

Carney walked from the table on August 21st, promised dollar for dollar, delivered dollar for dollar four days later, and attached C$7.5 billion of domestic support to cushion a hit his own negotiators triggered. The counter-tariffs will not move Washington, and the support package is a transfer from Canadian taxpayers to Canadian firms for the privilege of paying more for American steel. In our opinion, the tell is the carve-out. The one file where Canada holds real leverage is the one file both sides quietly agreed not to touch, and everything else is theatre with a September 8th curtain.

We Continue to Watch the UP and the NS

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed their reply Wednesday of last week, telling the Surface Transportation Board they have presented an unprecedented evidentiary case and easily satisfied the prima facie threshold. Chief Executive Jim Vena said the applicants have more than cleared the threshold to move review forward and that opponents’ efforts to kill the deal do not change the facts.

The opposition is unusually broad. BNSF, CSX and Canadian Pacific Kansas City want the application rejected outright, seven state attorneys general are on record, and the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, American Chemistry Council, American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, The Fertilizer Institute and the National Industrial Transportation League filed a joint motion earlier this month arguing the applicants have not cleared the public interest bar. That coalition is essentially the tank car shipper base, and its central complaint is the reduction of Class I options at customer facilities from two to one and three to two. Canadian National left the opposition column earlier in the proceeding in exchange for haulage rights across the Midwest and southern U.S. and access to the affected facilities.

The Natural Resources Defense Council asked the Board last Tuesday to require public disclosure of the carbon emissions data behind the applicants’ claim of nearly 3.8 million tons per year of avoided CO2, which the railroads designated highly confidential. The NRDC pointed out that the railroads had already filed supplemental information correcting earlier nitrogen oxide figures, which is an awkward fact to carry while arguing the rest of the environmental case should stay sealed. The headline claims are unchanged: a 55,000 mile network handling about half of U.S. rail freight, coast to coast transit a day or two faster, an estimated $3.5 billion a year in shipper savings and 2.1 million trucks off the road.

Nothing in this proceeding moves until the Board rules on the prima facie question, and that ruling is the only date on the calendar worth marking. For shippers with cars routed over the affected interchanges, the planning assumption has not changed. This is a 2027 question at the earliest, and the service disruption risk sits on the far side of approval. We will be keeping our eye on this one.

We Are Watching Diesel

The U.S. Gulf coast ultra low sulfur diesel crack against Cushing WTI closed at $102.67 per barrel Thursday of last week. That is the first close above $100 since October 2022, on a spread that averaged $28.60 in January and $91.80 across August. Distillate inventories fell another 2.2 million barrels in the week ended August 21 and sit about 14% under the five-year average.

The shortage is in refining capacity, not in crude. Middle East refining took damage during the Iran conflict, Hormuz is still a chokepoint, Russian refining and exports keep absorbing drone strikes, and the permanent closures of the COVID years has left no slack anywhere in the system to absorb any of it. U.S. refiners ran flat out at 97.4% of operable capacity in the week ending August 21st, with crude inputs at 17.4 million barrels per day.

A 97.4% run rate means deferred turnarounds, maximum crude receipts and maximum clean product outbound, sustained on margins nobody is willing to walk away from. Roughly 500,000 barrels per day of crude distillation capacity is already scheduled offline in September with more expected as individual refineries update their schedules, which puts a ceiling on how long this run rate holds. Distillate this tight pulls product into inland markets by tank car wherever pipeline space is already committed, and clean product car utilization has been the quiet beneficiary all summer.

The fall turnaround calendar matters more here than the crack itself. A crack over $100 tells you the market has already repriced. September and October maintenance tells you whether it holds. Either way, a clean product car in serviceable condition is worth more than lease rates suggest.

We Are Watching Rail Corridors

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy launched America’s Great Corridors of Commerce last Wednesday, a voluntary program that lets railroads and state transportation departments lease their rights of way for transmission lines, fiber optic cable, water pipelines and other utilities. Right of way owners partner with private sector corridor managers on design, development, operation and maintenance, and the lease revenue is meant to fund track, bridge and tunnel work along the same corridor. The Build America Bureau published a request for information on August 18th and will follow with a request for expressions of interest.

The procedural piece is where the value sits. Using land the railroad already controls avoids assembling private property and lets projects lean on categorical environmental exclusions instead of full reviews. DOT expects to designate up to five corridors in the first round, with those corridors getting priority federal permitting coordination and access to funding and financing programs. Owners that are not designated can still pursue the same partnership structure on their own.

Lease income on otherwise idle right of way is the smaller half of this. Transmission capacity running alongside a rail line makes the adjacent property viable for data centers, manufacturing and processing plants, and those facilities generate construction inbound, feedstock inbound and finished product outbound for as long as they operate. The first five selections will say more about how serious the program is than the announcement did. Worth watching where they land.

We Are Watching Methanol

Methanex is idling its Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago as the facility’s natural gas contract expires this quarter, pulling 860,000 tonnes per year out of the Atlantic basin and putting the unit into preservation. Titan follows the 1.82 million tonne per year Atlas plant, idled since September 2024, which leaves Methanex with nothing running at Point Lisas. Trinidad has historically supplied the majority of the methanol imported through U.S. east coast ports.

The east coast is an import market with no meaningful local production, so the replacement barrels come out of the U.S. Gulf coast. There is no direct rail provider from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast, which is why the northeast truck and rail premium over the Gulf Coast has widened from roughly 8 cents per gallon across 2003 to 2023 to about 32 cents since 2024. Venezuela has taken share this year, capturing about 31% of total U.S. imports through June, though that is a supply source with its own political calendar.

The structural shift from waterborne import to domestic rail movement is the kind of demand that turns up in lease renewals two quarters out. It does not turn up in the spot market. Methanol moves in general purpose non-pressurized service, so this is not a specialty build problem. It is a car availability and routing problem in a lane that has not needed the cars before. PFL’s customers in chemical service should plan on the northeast being a harder lane to cover this winter than last. 

We are watching Copper

A major U.S. copper project received additional federal backing last week as the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) indicated up to $1.1 billion in potential debt financing for Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz Copper Project in Arizona.

Ivanhoe Electric announced the Preliminary Project Letter last week, increasing the potential EXIM financing from the $825 million contemplated last year. While the financing remains subject to further due diligence, underwriting and final approvals, the increase represents another significant step toward development of a new domestic source of refined copper.

Located near Casa Grande, Arizona, Santa Cruz is being developed as a large-scale underground copper mine designed to process approximately 20,000 tonnes of material per day. Current plans call for average annual production of approximately 72,000 tonnes of 99.99% pure copper cathode during the first 15 years of operation, with an expected mine life of 23 years.

The project is particularly significant as the U.S. looks to expand domestic supplies of critical minerals used in electrical infrastructure, power generation and transmission, manufacturing, technology and national defense. Rather than shipping concentrate elsewhere for processing, Santa Cruz is designed to produce finished copper cathode onsite.

Development activity is also beginning to move closer to construction. Ivanhoe has already received approval for its Site Development Plan and the necessary permits for initial construction activities. Excavation associated with the mine-access system is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026, followed by additional mine and surface infrastructure development through 2027 and 2028. First copper cathode production is currently targeted for the second quarter of 2029.

For the freight and rail industries, projects of this scale extend well beyond the finished commodity. Mine construction and operation require significant volumes of steel, machinery, construction materials, chemicals and other industrial inputs, while eventual production creates another domestic supply source feeding U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure markets.

The increased financing consideration for Santa Cruz is another indication of the broader push to develop critical-mineral supply chains within the United States. As billions of dollars move into new mines, processing facilities, power infrastructure and manufacturing capacity, those investments can create new freight demand throughout the supply chain.

We are watching Class 1 Industrial Headcount 

Class I railroads employed 115,013 workers in the United States in July 2026, a -0.01% decrease from June 2026’s count of 115,030 and a -3.32% year-over-year decrease from July 2025’s total of 118,965, according to Surface Transportation Board data. 

Three of the six employment categories posted month-over-month increases between June and July 2026. These were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, up 0.49% to 7,992 workers; Professional and Administrative, which increased 1.67% to 8,872 workers; and Transportation (train and engine), which increased 0.06% to 48,993 workers.

The categories that posted month-over-month decreases were Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -0.53% to 28,641 workers; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -0.36% to 15,888 workers; and Transportation (other than train and engine), down -0.39% to 4,627 workers.

No employment categories posted a year-over-year gain in July 2026.

Categories that registered year-over-year decreases in July 2026 were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, down -0.11%; Professional and Administrative, down -4.62%; Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -1.50%; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -6.62%; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -6.69%; and Transportation (train and engine), down -3.20%.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Spending

In July 2026, total consumer spending adjusted for inflation was essentially unchanged from June 2026, rising less than 0.1% and marking a sharp slowdown from the 0.4% increase recorded in June. The slowdown suggests that rising consumer prices absorbed much of the modest increase in household spending, limiting growth in the volume of goods and services purchased.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending showed little overall growth in July. Current-dollar spending on services increased by $86.2 billion, while spending on goods declined by $49.9 billion, indicating a continued shift toward services as consumers reduced spending on goods.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppers located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 50, 28.3K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Kansas/Oklahoma. For use in Fuel Oil service. Period: 6 Months.
• 100, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Diesel service. Period: 1 year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.
• 15, 5750 CF Hopper located off of CSX, NS, CP, CN, BNSF, UP in St Louis. Last used in Grain.
• 50, 30 DOT 111 Tank located off of multiple class 1s in multiple location. Last used in Fuels.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 8-31-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Oil prices remained under pressure as diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz gained momentum. Mediators are working with Iran on conditions for restoring normal traffic, while shipping flows through the waterway showed signs of a tentative but uneven recovery. Seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Thursday, down from 17 the previous day and below the 10-day average of 15.

At the same time, concerns over tighter monetary policy added pressure to crude prices after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated that interest rates could be raised later this year to contain inflation. The prospect of higher rates weighed on expectations for economic growth and future oil demand.

Supply risks remain elevated, however, as disruptions continue across the Middle East and Russia. Recent estimates put Gulf oil exports at 15–16 million barrels per day, still 7–8 million bpd below pre-war levels. Meanwhile, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are tightening global refined-product supplies.

With Hormuz traffic gradually recovering and diplomatic efforts gaining traction, the market is beginning to price in some easing of the supply disruption, although continued geopolitical risks and uneven shipping flows are keeping significant uncertainty in the oil market.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 8-28-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The rebound followed reports that the Trump administration is not interested in returning to the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June. Washington also confirmed that it is not currently engaged in talks with Tehran, despite renewed diplomatic efforts by regional mediators.

The lack of progress toward a broader agreement caused investors to scale back expectations for a near-term increase in Middle Eastern oil supplies. The United States remains focused on applying additional economic pressure on Iran, while Tehran has continued to push back against the sanctions and warned against further escalation.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz showed some improvement, with 10 commodity vessels transiting the waterway on Wednesday. While higher than recent lows, traffic remained below the 10-day average of 15 vessels and far below pre-conflict levels. Before the war began in late February, the Strait of Hormuz handled approximately one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Some regional refining capacity has also begun returning, with Kuwait’s 615,000-barrel-per-day Al-Zour refinery restarting all three crude units and operating at approximately 60% capacity as of August 19.

With diplomatic efforts continuing but no direct negotiations between the United States and Iran underway, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern oil flows remains a key source of support for crude prices.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 8-27-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Both benchmarks fell to their lowest levels since August 10 during the session as hopes for increased shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on prices. Losses were later limited after U.S. inventory data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in commercial crude stocks.

U.S. crude inventories increased by just 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels for the week ending August 21, compared with expectations for a 597,000-barrel increase.

Market sentiment has shifted as Iran and Oman work toward an agreement governing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Progress toward a negotiated arrangement has raised expectations that traffic through the waterway could gradually increase, potentially reducing the geopolitical risk premium that has supported crude prices.

Shipping activity, however, remains well below normal levels. Only five commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, compared with a 10-day average of 15 vessels and significantly below pre-war traffic levels. Before the conflict began at the end of February, the waterway handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies.

Broader diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions also continued, with Pakistan reporting progress in discussions with Iran and Qatar preparing additional talks with Iranian officials.

Meanwhile, supply disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine war continued. Russia’s NORSI refinery, the country’s fourth-largest refinery and second-largest gasoline producer, suspended crude processing following a Ukrainian drone attack.

Growing expectations for increased shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on crude prices, although traffic remains severely constrained and ongoing disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure are limiting the market’s downside.

The post Petroleum Daily Report 8-26-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.