The rally was supported by U.S. inventory data showing a mixed but ultimately bullish picture. While crude stocks increased by 1.9 million barrels, both gasoline and distillate inventories posted larger-than-expected draws, signaling firm downstream demand and ongoing strain in refined product markets.

Geopolitical risks also intensified, adding to the market’s risk premium. Reports of gunfire attacks on multiple container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, along with vessel seizures by Iranian forces, underscored the continued instability in a key global energy chokepoint. The waterway, which previously handled roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, remains heavily restricted.

Diplomatic progress remains limited. Although the U.S. signaled an indefinite extension of the ceasefire, the move appears unilateral, with Iran indicating that a full truce is incompatible with the ongoing U.S. naval blockade. The lack of coordinated de-escalation continues to cloud the outlook for any meaningful restoration of oil flows.

Broader regional tensions persist, with renewed conflict activity in Lebanon further complicating the geopolitical backdrop and increasing the risk of spillover disruptions.

On the supply side, additional uncertainty is emerging from shifting trade flows. Russia is set to reroute some crude exports away from Europe, while temporary U.S. sanctions relief on seaborne Russian oil highlights growing concerns among import-dependent economies facing supply shortages.

Overall, oil markets remain highly sensitive to both physical supply signals and geopolitical developments. While refined product draws are offering near-term support, sustained price direction will depend on whether disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ease and whether meaningful progress is made in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-22-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The market remains focused on whether talks will materialize before the ceasefire expires, with Iran yet to confirm its attendance. At the same time, U.S. messaging has signaled readiness to escalate if a deal is not reached, reinforcing uncertainty around the near-term outlook.

Supply conditions remain highly constrained. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to run at minimal levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting the waterway in the past 24 hours. The prolonged disruption has already removed a significant volume of oil from the market, tightening global balances.

Broader regional tensions also persist, adding to geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, global markets are beginning to feel the economic effects of higher energy prices, with signs of strain emerging across Europe and continued strength in U.S. fuel-driven spending.

On the supply side, attention is turning to weekly U.S. inventory data, with expectations for another crude draw that would signal ongoing demand strength and limited near-term supply relief.

Overall, oil markets remain highly reactive, with price direction tied closely to developments around negotiations, the status of the ceasefire, and the pace at which disrupted supply may eventually return.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-21-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The latest gains were driven by escalating tensions over the weekend, including the seizure of an Iranian vessel by U.S. forces and subsequent threats of retaliation from Tehran. These developments have cast doubt on the durability of the ceasefire and the likelihood of near-term progress in negotiations.

With the current ceasefire set to expire soon, markets are increasingly focused on whether talks will resume and lead to a more lasting resolution. Uncertainty around a potential extension, alongside continued military posturing, has reintroduced a risk premium into prices.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited, with traffic running at a fraction of normal levels. The persistence of restrictions—effectively creating a dual blockade dynamic—continues to constrain global supply, reinforcing volatility in crude markets.

While some vessel movement has been recorded in recent days, flows remain inconsistent, and the path toward normalization is unclear. As a result, market sentiment remains highly reactive to geopolitical developments.

Despite the recent rebound, prices are still below the peaks reached earlier in the conflict. Longer term, even in the event of de-escalation, supply restoration is expected to be gradual, suggesting that prices may remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels.

Overall, oil markets continue to be driven by shifting expectations around the conflict, with price direction closely tied to developments in negotiations, the status of the ceasefire, and the pace of recovery in global oil flows.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-20-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post RIN Recap 4-20-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending April 11, 2026 came in at 207,000, versus the adjusted number of 218,000 people from the week prior, down 11,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,818,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,787,000 people from the week prior, up 31,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 869.20 points (1.79%), closing out the week at 49,447.92, up 1,531.35 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 84.76 points (1.20%), and closed out the week at 7,126.04, up 309.15 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 365.78 points (1.52%), and closed out the week at 24,468.48, up 1,565.59 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 49,377 this morning, down 264 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -10.84 per barrel (-11.5%), to close at $83.85 on Friday of last week, and down $12.72 week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -9.01 per barrel (-9.1%), to close at $90.38, and down $4.82 week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for May delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$17.00 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$72.77 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 900,000 barrels week-over-week. At 463.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels week-over-week and are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 300,000 barrels week-over-week and are 68% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 71 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 5.2 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 3.8 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.0 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending April 10, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026, a decrease of 1.0 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels per day, 1.3% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 316,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 118,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 5.225 million barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026, an increase of 1.076 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.054 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16 million barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026, which was 208,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $87.13 this morning, up $4.54 from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending April 15, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+1.31%) in week 16, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending April 15, 2026 were 337,539, up (+5.48%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 327,175, down (-2.66%) year over year. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-8.90%). The largest increase was Coal (+21.06%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+4.60%), with the largest decrease coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (-7.89%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+20.18%). NS’s total volumes were up (+0.12%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+17.82%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-10.49%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+4.04%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+69.60%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-2.11%). UP’s total volumes were down (-0.59%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+15.52%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-8.19%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+11.87%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+136.50%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-22.00%), with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+33.18%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-67.15%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -7 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was down by -2 rigs week-over-week, and down by -42 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 543 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week and down by -4 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 130 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -46 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We were at last week’s tank car committee meeting

The April 2026 Tank Car Committee (TCC) meeting, held in Nashville, Tennessee, brought together key people from across the rail industry, including major railroads, regulatory agencies, and industry organizations, to address ongoing safety, regulatory, and operational priorities. The open session, conducted over April 15–16, focused on a structured agenda that included safety briefings, regulatory updates from agencies such as the FRA, PHMSA, and NTSB, and discussions surrounding the Tank Car Research Program. A significant portion of the meeting centered on active dockets, covering topics such as inspection standards, service equipment performance, cryogenic service approvals, and updates to AAR Manual M-1002 requirements—highlighting the industry’s continued emphasis on safety, compliance, and standardization.

In addition to technical discussions, the committee addressed new business items and ongoing industry challenges, including equipment recalls, regulatory changes in North America, and improvements to data tracking systems like UMLER.  Overall, the April TCC meeting demonstrated the industry’s proactive approach to improving tank car integrity, operational efficiency, and safety across the rail network, while setting the stage for continued progress in upcoming meetings later in 2026. As always please reach out to PFL for further details on what was discussed.  David Cohen and Brian Baker were there representing PFL

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,080 from 29,206 which was a decrease of -126 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were mixed. CN’s shipments were lower by 17.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by 15.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments also mixed. The BN had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -12.0%. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +11.0% week-over-week.

We Are Watching Hormuz

Hormuz opened, then closed, then closed harder, all inside 48 hours. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the strait open to commercial traffic last Friday afternoon via X. Markets crashed within the hour with the second-largest one-day drop since the war began, WTI falling 11.4% to $83.85 and Brent 9% to $90.38. Iran’s IRGC reimposed restrictions last Saturday, citing “repeated breaches of trust” by the US on the port blockade, and by Sunday chief negotiator Qalibaf told Iranian state TV that “it is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot.”

The walkback walked back. The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports is in full force, forcing 23 ships to turn around over the weekend according to CENTCOM. The ten-day US-Iran truce expires this Tuesday, April 21. Over the weekend, Trump posted that Iran had “decided to fire bullets” in the strait and threatened to “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran” if talks fail, while senior national security officials including the Defense Secretary, CIA Director, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs cycled through the White House last Saturday.

The IEA’s monthly oil market report last Tuesday flipped the agency’s 2026 outlook on its head. The Paris-based agency now projects world oil supply will fall 1.5 million bpd this year, calling it the largest oil supply shock in history. That is a reversal from last month’s forecast of 1.1 million bpd of supply growth. The IEA also lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast to a contraction of 80,000 bpd, from a 640,000 bpd rise in March. The IMF separately warned that restoring a meaningful portion of disrupted Mideast Gulf oil and gas output could take up to two years.

The demand response in North America is already visible. US crude net imports fell to just 66,000 bpd in the week ended April 10, the lowest in weekly data going back to 2001, as export loadings surged to 5.23 million bpd on strong Asian and European pulls. Asia-Pacific refiners have bought between 50 and 70 million barrels of May-loading US crude, with Japan alone taking roughly 30 million. Aframax rates for Vancouver loadings hit record highs on April 13 at $36.20 per ton, as Asian buyers turn to Western Canada, Alaska, and Latin America to replace lost Mideast Gulf barrels. Trans Mountain waterborne exports hit a four-month high of 457,000 bpd in March, and WTI is now landing in Asia at a $26.40 premium to Dubai, more economical than Abu Dhabi’s Murban at a $29.59 premium.

For tank car owners, the oil price whipsaw does not change the structural reality of the North American crude-by-rail fleet. Available crude tank cars are scarce, new builds run twelve to twenty-four months from order to delivery, and any commitment to unit train service requires a minimum five-year lease plus a five-year take-or-pay with the carrier. Crews and locomotives are not sitting in reserve. Whether Hormuz reopens on Tuesday or stays shut through a second round of talks, neither outcome calls new crude cars into service. California remains the canary given CARB specifications and the roughly 30 to 35 percent loss of in-state refining capacity since 2020. Marine insurance for vessels still willing to transit Hormuz is running roughly ten times pre-war prices. Stay tuned to PFL this story is changing by the minute.

We Are Watching the Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

The Liberals won a majority in government on Monday of last week. Three by-election wins in two Toronto ridings and Terrebonne, Quebec, combined with five earlier floor crossings, gave Prime Minister Mark Carney 174 of 343 seats in the House of Commons. Parliament can sit until October 2029 without a no confidence vote. The Conservatives remain the official opposition at 140 seats.

Carney put his new authority to work last Tuesday, meeting Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew on Parliament Hill and signing a Canada-Manitoba Co-operation Agreement on Environmental and Impact Assessment, applying a “one project, one review” framework to major Manitoba infrastructure. The flagship project is Port of Churchill Plus, which includes an all-weather road, rail line upgrades, a new energy corridor, and strengthened ice-breaking capacity. Federal money is moving, with $500,000 already provided to the Manitoba Crown Indigenous Corporation and $40 million over three years committed for Indigenous engagement on Major Projects Office files.

Kinew is carrying the rail and pipeline part of the messaging. He has openly said that the northern Manitoba trade corridor could include a pipeline to ship Western Canadian energy to Hudson Bay for export to Europe and India. “As the war in Iran drives up energy costs and destabilizes global supply chains, the importance of Churchill cannot be overstated,” Kinew said in a news release. That is a striking endorsement of pipeline economics from a left-leaning premier, and more direct than anything the Prime Minister himself has said.

Carney’s contribution was carefully on-message and carefully vague, talking about cutting red tape, trade corridors, and high-paying Canadian careers. He did not commit to a pipeline. Kinew did. If Manitoba is serious about a natural gas line running through the province, right of way is the largest single line item in pipeline construction, and laying two pipes in one trench is the cheapest way to add export capacity for the next decade. That requires a Prime Minister willing to use the word oil.

The more immediate rail question is what a Liberal majority means for Alberta’s planned West Coast crude oil pipeline, which the province plans to file to the federal Major Projects Office this summer. Carney’s government has attached conditions, including a multi-billion-dollar oil sands investment in carbon capture and sequestration tied to the Pathways project. With a four-year majority runway, Ottawa has no tactical reason to soften those conditions.

We Are Watching Alberta

Last Tuesday, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean introduced a bill that puts Premier Danielle Smith’s cabinet at the front of the project review process for industrial proposals over $250 million in capital spending. Cabinet conducts an initial review with no fixed deadline. A deputy ministers’ committee gets 30 days. Once cabinet issues an order, regulators have a four-month clock to assess and issue permits. Projects must come in with completed environmental assessments and First Nations consultations.

The pace target is real. Jean noted that US major projects can be approved in under a month and called Ottawa’s two-year Major Projects Office window too slow, saying federal policy has cost Canada billions in foregone investment. Alberta still plans to file an application for a new West Coast crude oil pipeline this summer to that same federal Major Projects Office, even as the province builds its own faster track.

The pace push came the same week Alberta’s energy CEOs went after the federal industrial carbon price at the BMO CAPP Energy Symposium in Toronto last Tuesday. CAPP head Lisa Baiton said the war in the Middle East has put an exclamation point on the case for Canadian production. Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie called the carbon levy a fallacy as a decarbonization driver. Birchcliff CEO Chris Carlsen said mid-sized producers do not have the scale to make CCS work. Under the Alberta-federal MOU signed late last year, Alberta’s industrial carbon price is set to rise from $95 to $130 per tonne, with Pathways CCS economics tied to that price. The April 1 deadline to finalize that piece passed nearly three weeks ago without resolution.

For rail planning, the practical upshot is a wider gap between what Alberta is willing to approve quickly and what Ottawa can deliver. The faster Alberta moves on an upgrader, refinery, or petrochemical expansion, the longer the lead time it gives car manufacturers and lessors. 

We Are Watching Enbridge

The White House issued nine presidential permits to Enbridge last Wednesday, authorizing cross-border crude and petroleum product pipeline operations. Eight of the nine refresh existing authorizations dating back as far as 1991, covering Enbridge Mainline’s six lines in Pembina County North Dakota, two Mainline export lines from St. Clair Michigan, and the Southern Lights and existing Bakken pipelines. The ninth permit authorizes a newly constructed 24-inch pipeline tied to Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization Phase 2 project.

Phase 2 is the piece worth watching. The project would shift light crude off Enbridge’s Canadian Mainline onto the Bakken Pipeline system and into Dakota Access for delivery to Patoka, Illinois, and onward to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Enbridge has said Phase 2 could add up to 250,000 bpd of capacity as early as late 2028. Phase 1 of the Mainline Optimization program, approved in November 2024 at a cost of US$1.4 billion, adds 150,000 bpd to the Canadian Mainline and 100,000 bpd to Flanagan South, with those volumes targeted for 2027.

The Canadian Mainline is already running hot. In January 2026, Enbridge apportioned heavy and light crude nominations by 13 percent as Alberta production surged into the colder months. Trans Mountain took 457,000 bpd in waterborne exports in March, a four-month high, with 93,000 bpd going to the U.S. West Coast and the rest to Asia. Keystone has operated at 94 to 100 percent utilization through the first half of 2026. Phase 2 is a multi-year pull-forward for Canadian crude egress and a direct substitute for the remaining crude-by-rail volumes out of Western Canada.

The Bakken angle is separate. Line 26 currently flows 145,000 bpd northbound from North Dakota to Cromer, Manitoba and into the Enbridge Mainline system. A southbound reversal, paired with a new 24-inch border crossing, would create a direct southbound path through DAPL to the USGC. Bakken barrels moving to tidewater via pipeline is a structural negative for unit-train crude out of North Dakota, and a further tailwind for USGC export terminals.

For PFL customers operating crude tank car fleets, the announcement does not move immediate volumes. The first capacity additions are twelve to twenty-four months out and Phase 2 another year beyond. Lease decisions being made now on DOT-117 cars should price in a tighter residual crude-by-rail market by 2028, and that is the renewal conversation PFL is having with fleet operators this quarter. 

We Are Watching Fuel Surcharges

Every Class I railroad is raising fuel surcharges in May as the Iran war diesel spike works through mileage-based formulas that reference the EIA’s monthly on-highway diesel average. Union Pacific’s May surcharge rises to 57 cents per mile, up 73 percent from 33 cents in April. CSX goes to 74 cents per mile, up from 44 cents.

The lag explains the magnitude. UP’s April surcharge referenced the February on-highway diesel price of $3.72 per gallon, before the war spike. On-highway diesel averaged $4.92 per gallon in March, up 40 percent from January’s $3.52. During the second week of April, it averaged $5.61. The full lag from the March and April moves will not reach shipper invoices until June and July. U.S. retail diesel averaged $5.608 per gallon in the week ended April 13, up about $1.80 per gallon since the week before the war began on February 23.

Shippers are not taking it quietly. The Alliance for Chemical Distribution petitioned the Surface Transportation Board in March to monitor surcharges on chlorine and other chemical shipments, citing the COVID-19 period and the 2024 rail labor disruption as examples of carriers leveraging external events into permanent fee structures. The STB said on March 20 it would ensure carriers engage in reasonable rules and practices on fuel surcharges and reiterated the 20-day notice requirement. Chlor-alkali producers Westlake and Olin have added their own fuel surcharges effective April 1 on rail and truck shipments.

For PFL customers, the fuel surcharge is an unavoidable layer on top of every loaded mile. The most exposed lanes are long-haul manifest moves in commodities that already carry thin margins, including chemicals, fertilizer, plastics, and ethanol. Tank car lease rates themselves have been steady, with non-pressurized CPC-1232 cars on 1-to-5-year terms at $800 per month and DOT-117s at $1,000. The fuel surcharge piece is what will hit the monthly invoice through Q2 and into Q3. Where alternative routings exist on a given lane, PFL can help shippers model the carrier-by-carrier differential before the May schedules take effect. 

We Are Watching Schedule 5.8

Four shipper trade associations filed a joint motion with the Surface Transportation Board last Tuesday asking the agency to reclassify a key section of the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger agreement from “Highly Confidential” to public. The filing came from the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, the American Chemistry Council, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, and The Fertilizer Institute. Those four groups cover virtually every bulk shipper category, PFL advises.

The section in question is Schedule 5.8, which defines what qualifies as a “Materially Burdensome Regulatory Condition” under the merger agreement. That definition is the trigger that would let UP walk away from the $250 billion-plus transaction and pay Norfolk Southern a $2.5 billion breakup fee. In other words, Schedule 5.8 is where UP has listed the regulatory concessions it is not willing to accept. The shipper groups argue the document contains no trade secrets, rates, costs, or shipper-identifying data, and therefore does not qualify as confidential under the protective order the STB entered in August 2025.

The STB rejected UP and NS’s original December 19 merger application on January 16 as incomplete, specifically flagging the missing Schedule 5.8 as one of the deficiencies. UP and NS are scheduled to refile their revised application on April 30, ten days after this report publishes. Whether Schedule 5.8 is made public or kept sealed will shape what shippers, competing railroads, and state attorneys general can see and contest during the comment window that follows.

For rail car interests, this is not background noise. The conditions UP has flagged as deal-breakers are effectively its map of where it expects regulatory fights, which means they are also a map of where service commitments, gateway access, interchange rules, and rate remedies are most likely to be negotiated. Chemical, petrochemical, and fertilizer shippers pushing for disclosure are doing so because they want to know, before comment period closes, whether the combined carrier is willing to absorb conditions that protect their interests or intends to walk if those conditions are imposed.

We Are Watching Permian NGL

Enterprise Products Partners hosted its annual supply appraisal forecast call last Tuesday and raised its five-year outlook for Permian NGL production. The company now expects Permian NGLs from natural gas processing to grow 24 percent from 2025 levels to 4.7 million bpd by 2030, 200,000 bpd above the April 2025 outlook. Associated natural gas is projected to grow 23 percent to 35.4 bcf per day over the same period. The 2030 crude forecast was trimmed.

The basin is getting gassier. Enterprise now projects NGL and natural gas output to outpace crude production by 60%across the forecast horizon, up from a 40% gap in last year’s view. Wells are producing higher gas-to-oil ratios as operators step into new horizons and refine completion techniques. That is a structural shift in what the Permian pulls out of the ground, not a cyclical move. Total U.S. NGL production was trimmed by 100,000 bpd to 9.0 million bpd in 2030, which means the Permian is taking share from other basins, rather than riding a general tide.

The Iran war is adding near-term demand pull. Enterprise executives said on the call that NGL demand is stronger for longer because of the supply constraints that emerged over the last six to seven weeks, and that LPG export capacity is sufficient to handle expected volume growth for the foreseeable future. LPG exports out of the U.S. Gulf Coast are the primary channel for moving Permian propane and butane to Asian and European buyers displaced by the Hormuz disruption.

For rail, the read is mixed but net positive on the non-crude side. Permian NGL takeaway is primarily a pipeline story, with Enterprise’s Bahia line, Mont Belvieu fractionation, and Neches River export terminal absorbing most of the physical volume growth. But pressurized LPG cars still matter for inland distribution, fractionation redistribution, and any lane where pipeline capacity falls short. Pressurized tank car lease rates on one to five year terms are at $1,200 per month and utilization is holding firm. 

We Are Watching Union Pacific and Rocky Mountain Steel

This week, Union Pacific signed a seven-year rail supply agreement with Rocky Mountain Steel Mills, the only remaining dedicated steel rail production mill in the United States.

The Pueblo, Colorado facility has supplied rail to Union Pacific since the early 1890s. The new long-term contract extends that relationship and signals that UP is planning for a significantly larger network, UP CEO Jim Vena directly linked the deal to the proposed Norfolk Southern merger, noting the partnership becomes more important as the railroad prepares to expand to a coast-to-coast system.

The investment happening in Pueblo right now we thought was interesting. Rocky Mountain Steel is putting more than $1 billion into a new long-rail mill at the site, expected to begin operations later this year. The mill will produce 328-foot rail sections versus the traditional 80-foot sections used today, resulting in approximately 80% fewer welds along the track. Fewer welds mean fewer failure points, lower maintenance costs, and better ride quality. The mill will be powered by a dedicated 1,800-acre solar farm, making it the world’s largest solar-powered steel mill when complete.

The deal also resolved an existing legal dispute: Union Pacific withdrew a previously filed lawsuit against Rocky Mountain Steel in Nebraska as part of the agreement. Steel at the Pueblo facility is produced by United Steelworkers union members.

A seven-year domestic rail supply agreement covering what may become a 50,000-mile transcontinental network is not routine procurement. In a market where steel tariffs are in effect and domestic manufacturing is a political priority, locking in a long-term U.S.-only supply deal is both strategically and politically smart. It is also a clear statement that Union Pacific is building for the long term regardless of how the merger review unfolds.

We are watching Class 1 Industrial Headcount

Class I railroads employed 115,080 workers in the United States in March 2026, a 0.23% increase from February 2026’s count of 114,811 but a -3.75% year-over-year decrease from March 2025’s total of 119,562, according to Surface Transportation Board data. 

Three of the six employment categories posted month-over-month increases between February and March 2026. These were Professional and Administrative, up 0.62% to 8,887 workers; Maintenance of Way and Structures, which increased 0.64% to 28,343 workers; and Transportation (train and engine), which increased 0.51% to 48,860 workers.

The categories that posted month-over-month decreases were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, down -0.41% to 8,079 workers; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -0.72% to 16,234 workers; and Transportation (other than train and engine), down -1.31% to 4,677 workers.

Year-over-year, only one category posted an employment gain: Executives, officials, and staff assistants, up 2.76%.

Categories that registered year-over-year decreases in March 2026 were Professional and Administrative, down -7.96%; Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -0.53%; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -4.79%; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -7.40%; and Transportation (train and engine), down -5.03%.

We are watching Key Economic Indicators

Producer Price Index

In March 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.2% month-over-month, easing further from the 0.3% increase in February and indicating a gradual moderation in upstream price pressures. Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) increased 0.2% month over month, in line with February’s pace. The monthly increase was driven primarily by services, which rose 0.3%, while goods increased 0.1%. Within goods, food prices were relatively flat, while energy prices were mixed; goods less foods and energy increased 0.2%, suggesting steady but cooling core goods pricing. Within services, trade margins remained firm, while transportation and warehousing posted modest gains, and services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were subdued, pointing to more balanced services inflation.

In March 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% month-over-month, moderating slightly from February’s gain, and was up approximately 2.8% year over year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.3% month-over-month and was up approximately 2.7% year-over-year. Shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly increase. Food prices continued to rise modestly, while energy prices were mixed, contributing to a slightly softer headline figure compared to the prior month.

Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing accounts for approximately 75% of total output. Manufacturing output in March declined 0.10% from February 2026, following a 0.20% increase in February.

Capacity utilization is a measure of how fully firms are using machinery and equipment. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.48 percentage points from February in March. 

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 70, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Ohio. For use in Diesel service. Period: 3 months.
• 100, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 20, 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in Various. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 106, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 20, 31.8K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 86, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.
• 117, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 4-20-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The selloff followed confirmation that commercial vessels would be allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire period, alongside indications that Iran would not seek to close the waterway again. Early shipping data showed a pickup in outbound traffic, reinforcing expectations that disrupted supply could begin returning to global markets.

Market sentiment shifted quickly as traders moved away from pricing in severe supply disruptions toward a normalization scenario. The reopening of the strait, even on a controlled basis, is viewed as a key step in restoring flows after weeks of significant outages.

Progress in diplomatic negotiations has further supported the move lower. Reports suggest that both sides are advancing toward a preliminary agreement aimed at ending the conflict, with additional talks expected in the near term.

Despite the sharp decline, some caution remains. The reopening process is still evolving, and logistical constraints—including transit coordination and shipping delays—are likely to slow the pace of normalization. In addition, underlying geopolitical risks persist, particularly if negotiations stall or key issues remain unresolved.

Regional supply dynamics also suggest that tightness may linger in certain markets, especially in Europe, where delivery timelines from the Gulf can extend several weeks.

On the supply side, U.S. drilling activity declined again this week, indicating some restraint from producers despite recent price volatility.

Overall, the market has shifted decisively toward pricing in improving supply conditions, though prices remain sensitive to the durability of the ceasefire and the pace at which global oil flows fully recover.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-17-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

The rally reflects persistent concerns over constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic remains significantly limited. The continued disruption—impacting a substantial share of global oil and LNG shipments—is tightening supply conditions as inventories are steadily drawn down.

Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, market participants remain cautious about the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement. Current discussions appear to be focused on more limited arrangements aimed at preventing further escalation rather than fully restoring supply flows. As a result, prices showed little reaction to more optimistic political statements.

Supply constraints are increasingly visible in inventory data, with U.S. crude stocks posting an unexpected draw alongside declines in gasoline and distillate inventories, driven in part by stronger export demand as buyers seek alternatives to Middle Eastern supply.

Estimates suggest a significant volume of global oil flows remains disrupted due to the closure of the Strait, continuing to strain physical markets—particularly in regions reliant on imported fuels.

While there are indications that negotiations could resume in the near term, any meaningful recovery in flows is likely contingent on a broader agreement. In the interim, ongoing restrictions—including the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports—pose additional downside risks to supply.

Overall, the market remains supported by tight fundamentals and a sustained geopolitical risk premium, with price direction closely tied to developments in negotiations and the pace of any potential supply restoration.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-16-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Market stability reflects a balance between tentative signs of de-escalation and ongoing constraints on global supply. Discussions around a potential agreement have included provisions that could allow limited transit through parts of the Strait of Hormuz, though a full normalization of flows remains uncertain.

More than six weeks into the conflict, traffic through the strait remains significantly below normal levels, with only a small portion of typical volumes moving through the waterway. While there are indications of a gradual increase in tanker activity, flows continue to recover unevenly rather than rebounding quickly.

At the same time, cumulative supply losses from the Middle East have been substantial, underscoring the scale of disruption still embedded in the market. Ongoing restrictions—including the U.S. blockade on Iranian exports—continue to limit available supply.

Recent data suggests the market is no longer pricing in a complete outage, but a residual risk premium remains as supply recovery progresses slowly.

On the macro side, the broader economic impact of the conflict continues to build. Policymakers have flagged risks to global growth, while higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions are contributing to inflationary pressures. Several countries are already taking steps to secure additional energy supplies and strengthen reserves.

In the U.S., a surprise draw in crude inventories provided some underlying support to prices, pointing to continued demand resilience despite elevated price levels.

Overall, the market remains in a holding pattern, with prices stabilizing as traders weigh gradual supply improvements against lingering geopolitical risks and an uncertain path toward a lasting resolution.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-15-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Brent crude fell $4.57, or 4.6%, to settle at $94.79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped $7.80, or 7.9%, to $91.20. The decline follows gains in the previous session, when prices rose on news of expanded U.S. military actions in the region.

The selloff reflects growing expectations that negotiations could lead to a de-escalation and eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global crude and refined product flows. Sentiment has shifted toward a more constructive outlook, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of improved supply conditions.

However, underlying fundamentals remain tight. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure have resulted in a significant loss of global supply, with disruptions reaching historic levels in recent months. As a result, the market continues to balance optimism around diplomacy with the reality of constrained physical flows.

The potential resumption of negotiations remains a key focal point. While discussions are expected to continue, uncertainty persists regarding their outcome and timing. Market participants note that without a meaningful restoration of flows through the Strait, supply pressures could quickly re-emerge.

Additional risks remain on the supply side, including the potential for further escalation tied to the expanded U.S. naval presence and Iran’s threats to target regional infrastructure.

At the same time, updated forecasts point to a softer outlook for both supply and demand growth, reflecting the broader economic impact of elevated energy prices and ongoing geopolitical instability.

Overall, while easing geopolitical tensions have driven the recent pullback in prices, the market remains highly sensitive to developments around negotiations and the pace at which disrupted supply can return to global markets.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-14-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Brent crude gained $4.16, or 4.4%, to settle at $99.36 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $2.51, or 2.6%, to $99.08. Both benchmarks pulled back from earlier gains, with Brent up more than $8 and WTI more than $9 at session highs, highlighting ongoing volatility.

The market reaction reflects renewed concern over supply disruptions tied to restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for approximately 20% of global oil and LNG shipments. Traffic through the strait remains significantly below normal levels, underscoring the scale of the disruption.

Despite elevated prices in physical markets, futures trading has been more cautious, with sentiment influenced by shifting geopolitical signals and uncertainty around the trajectory of the conflict.

Rising energy costs are increasingly impacting the global economy. Fuel prices have climbed sharply, prompting demand adjustments in key regions, while governments are implementing measures to offset higher energy costs. At the same time, demand expectations have been revised lower in the near term.

Physical crude markets remain exceptionally tight, with spot prices for immediate delivery reaching record levels, well above futures benchmarks. This divergence suggests continued strain in prompt supply availability.

On the policy side, there is potential for additional supply from strategic reserves if conditions worsen, though such measures have not yet been fully deployed.

Overall, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with price direction driven by expectations around supply disruptions, the effectiveness of the blockade, and the potential for renewed diplomatic progress.

On Mobile? Click here to download the PDF

The post Petroleum Daily Report 4-13-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.