Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending August 22, 2026 came in at 203,000, versus the adjusted number of 207,000 people from the week prior, down 4,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,778,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,796,000 people from the week prior, down 18,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week, but higher week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -9.45 points (-0.02%), closing out the week at 53,559.99, up 282.98 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -19.23 points (-0.25%), and closed out the week at 7,711.76, up 37.39 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -138.93 points (-0.52%), and closed out the week at 26,402.42, up 221.97 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 53,489 this morning, down 95 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$0.13 per barrel (-0.2%), to close at $83.40 on Friday of last week, and down -$3.66 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -$0.39 per barrel (-0.4%), to close at $89.31, and down -$5.08 per barrel week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for October delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$16.45 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$64.80 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 100,000 barrels week-over-week. At 428.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels week-over-week and are 14% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 32% above the five-year average for this time of year. 

Propane prices closed at 72.8 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 4.9 cents per gallon week-over-week, and up 6.1 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 100,000 barrels week-over-week during the week ending August 21, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026, a decrease of 435,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 565,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 176,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.792 million barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026, a decrease of 274,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.65 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week ending August 21, 2026, which was 1,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $86.62, up $3.24 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending August 26, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+4.35%) in week 35, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending August 26, 2026 were 337,309, up (+4.41%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 361,052, up (+4.29%) year over year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-6.16%). The largest increase was Metallic Ores and Metals (+23.47%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+5.15%), with the largest decrease coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-7.95%), while the largest increase came from Other (+17.83%). NS’s total volumes were up (+2.79%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+28.06%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-4.63%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+3.56%), with the largest increase coming from Forest Products (+28.56%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-14.73%). UP’s total volumes were up (+5.09%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+29.04%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-8.01%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+6.81%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+40.95%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-14.73%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+5.48%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+54.27%), while the largest decrease came from Farm Products (-20.68%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was unchanged week-over-week, but up by +52 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 588 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week, but up by +36 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 211 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +88 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 30,480 from 30,201 which was an increase of +279 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +5.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were also higher by +5.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mixed. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +3.0% week-over-week. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -8.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA). DOE’s most recent publicly documented award total remains more than 133 million barrels, while the department has continued executing the broader 172-million-barrel commitment.

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions. The IEA’s coordinated action remains the largest emergency oil-stock release in the agency’s history.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 289.726 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since December 1982. The SPR declined by 3.7 million barrels during the week ending August 21, 2026. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 123.599 million barrels, equivalent to an average of roughly 882,850 barrels per day through the week ending August 21, 2026. 

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have partially recovered from their initial near-shutdown, the IEA continues to identify significant uncertainty surrounding the pace and durability of the recovery.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. DOE has stated that its exchange structure is designed to return the borrowed crude with additional premium barrels, with the stated objective of strengthening the SPR over time.

We Are Watching Canadian Crude by Rail

The Canadian Energy regulator reported on August 26, 2026, that 81,226 barrels per day were exported during the month of June 2026, down from 87,977 barrels per day in May of 2026, a decrease of 6,751 barrels per day month-over-month.

Crude by rail will always be necessary out of Canada for stranded oil not connected by pipelines. Raw bitumen, which is shipped as a non-haz product and is not able to flow in pipelines, is competitive with pipeline tolls and is a growing market to keep an eye on. In a normal predictable market, we really need to see basis WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average) blowout to -18 per barrel for sustained periods of time to make economic sense. Current rail rates from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast have averaged roughly $17 per-barrel, making rail competitive whenever WCS-WTI spreads exceed $18 per barrel, including quality adjustments.

This is not a fleet that switches overnight: car owners and lessors want five-year commitments, the Class Ones expect similar term, and new 117J cars carry one to two year build times.

Folks, what we are in now is not a normal and predictable market.  Some would say nothing has been normal or predictable since COVID.  With pipelines out of Alberta full or nearly full one consideration is the outright price of oil itself, with the conflict in Iran not seeming to go away anytime soon, some may step up, take on some cars to get barrels to market quickly.  Mistreamers won’t do that, however, we may see the producer step up.  For the producer it is all about what their netback is, not how much it costs to get there. The producer can pay more than $18 per barrel at some point if that is their only outlet and pipelines are full. The risk reward ratio may make sense with elevated prices but the old saying – what goes up, must come down, it is just a matter of when.  We always have our eyes on this one please stay tuned to PFL or call the desk to trouble shoot.

We Continue to Watch Line 5

A parked, unoccupied semi truck rolled into an open excavation at an Enbridge Line 5 valve project near Saxon, in Iron County, Wisconsin, at about 10 a.m. last Tuesday, striking the pipe and releasing natural gas liquids into the air. Nearby rural homes were evacuated, power was cut to 55 customers inside the evacuation zone to eliminate ignition sources, and a temporary no-fly zone went up over the site. Line 5 has been shut since, taking 540,000 barrels per day of light crude and natural gas liquids out of service between Superior, Wisconsin and Sarnia, Ontario. Enbridge said Wednesday of last week that it expects to return the line to service on Saturday September 5. 

Line 5 Incident  –  Posted August 29th 2026

Source: Enbridge – PFL Analytics

Line 5 Incident  – Posted August 29th 2026

Source: Enbridge – PFL Analytics

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources sent Enbridge a letter on Thursday of last week asking the company to halt work on the $1 billion, 41-mile reroute around the Bad River Band reservation until the incident on the existing line is resolved. Secretary Karen Hyun wrote that the agency is deeply concerned about the spill and immensely frustrated by other recent noncompliance events and attached more than 20 questions covering the volume released, the worst case release of propane and butane vapors, and the timeline for controlling it. The frustration has a paper trail: the DNR has issued four notices of non-compliance on the reroute project, and there have been at least four releases of drilling fluid, the largest running as high as 1,900 gallons in late June. Governor Tony Evers said the state is exceedingly concerned about recent events involving Enbridge and wants answers expeditiously. The state has also noted that Enbridge took an hour and 15 minutes to call the spills hotline.

Michigan moved in the same week. Governor Gretchen Whitmer filed a response brief last Friday in the federal suit Enbridge brought in 2020 after she and the Department of Natural Resources revoked the 1953 Straits of Mackinac easement, arguing that the Straits belong to the people of Michigan and not to oil companies or the federal government. The reference to the federal government is pointed: Judge Robert Jonker sided with Enbridge on the shutdown question in December, the state appealed to the Sixth Circuit in January, and the Trump administration filed an amicus brief in July supporting Enbridge.

Attorney General Dana Nessel’s separate closure case sits in Ingham County Circuit Court, paused pending the shutdown appeal. The Michigan Supreme Court vacated the Public Service Commission permit for the Straits tunnel on July 31st and sent the analysis back to the commission, and the Seventh Circuit upheld the Bad River trespass ruling the day before that, though it gave Enbridge more time to finish the reroute Wisconsin now wants stopped. Every one of these files has been arguing about hypothetical failure modes, and last Tuesday one of them stopped being hypothetical.

Sarnia and the Ontario and Michigan propane market can absorb a one week outage without much drama – lots of propane in storage right now, and Enbridge has roughly 150 people on the response. We expect Enbridge to get the incident cleaned up and operations to resume quickly but the ongoing legal battle seemingly will continue.  We will continue to watch enbridge line 5

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne published Canada’s counter-tariff list last Tuesday, running close to 100 pages and more than 700 line items. Duties of 15%, 25% and 50% land on C$27.6 billion of U.S. imports at 12:01 a.m. on September 8, with existing steel and aluminum rates doubling to 50%. Ottawa paired the list with a C$7.5 billion support package for exposed businesses and workers, and Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said the targets were selected with U.S. midterm races in mind.

Steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper and electronics are the named sectors, which is to say most of the list rides on a flatcar, a boxcar or a centerbeam in one direction or the other. The U.S. duties cover roughly 5.5% of Canadian exports south and the Canadian counter covers roughly 6% of U.S. exports north, so both governments have chosen to tax about one dollar in seventeen and leave the rest of the flow alone. Energy, potash and critical minerals remain carved out on both sides, so crude, refined products and fertilizer keep moving on current terms.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith spent the week arguing against the one lever that would actually bite. Curtailing or surcharging hydrocarbon exports, she said, invites an equal and more forceful response, reciprocal curtailment of U.S. crude and refined product into central Canada would bring Ontario and Quebec to a grinding halt, and Washington can backfill Canadian heavy with Venezuelan barrels by reversing existing lines, at which point Canada may lose the customer entirely and maybe forever. Ontario’s Doug Ford says that everything is on the table and Quebec’s Christine Frechette will not exclude anything, which is how a country ends up with an energy export policy set by whichever premier is nearest a microphone.

Carney walked from the table on August 21st, promised dollar for dollar, delivered dollar for dollar four days later, and attached C$7.5 billion of domestic support to cushion a hit his own negotiators triggered. The counter-tariffs will not move Washington, and the support package is a transfer from Canadian taxpayers to Canadian firms for the privilege of paying more for American steel. In our opinion, the tell is the carve-out. The one file where Canada holds real leverage is the one file both sides quietly agreed not to touch, and everything else is theatre with a September 8th curtain.

We Continue to Watch the UP and the NS

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed their reply Wednesday of last week, telling the Surface Transportation Board they have presented an unprecedented evidentiary case and easily satisfied the prima facie threshold. Chief Executive Jim Vena said the applicants have more than cleared the threshold to move review forward and that opponents’ efforts to kill the deal do not change the facts.

The opposition is unusually broad. BNSF, CSX and Canadian Pacific Kansas City want the application rejected outright, seven state attorneys general are on record, and the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, American Chemistry Council, American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, The Fertilizer Institute and the National Industrial Transportation League filed a joint motion earlier this month arguing the applicants have not cleared the public interest bar. That coalition is essentially the tank car shipper base, and its central complaint is the reduction of Class I options at customer facilities from two to one and three to two. Canadian National left the opposition column earlier in the proceeding in exchange for haulage rights across the Midwest and southern U.S. and access to the affected facilities.

The Natural Resources Defense Council asked the Board last Tuesday to require public disclosure of the carbon emissions data behind the applicants’ claim of nearly 3.8 million tons per year of avoided CO2, which the railroads designated highly confidential. The NRDC pointed out that the railroads had already filed supplemental information correcting earlier nitrogen oxide figures, which is an awkward fact to carry while arguing the rest of the environmental case should stay sealed. The headline claims are unchanged: a 55,000 mile network handling about half of U.S. rail freight, coast to coast transit a day or two faster, an estimated $3.5 billion a year in shipper savings and 2.1 million trucks off the road.

Nothing in this proceeding moves until the Board rules on the prima facie question, and that ruling is the only date on the calendar worth marking. For shippers with cars routed over the affected interchanges, the planning assumption has not changed. This is a 2027 question at the earliest, and the service disruption risk sits on the far side of approval. We will be keeping our eye on this one.

We Are Watching Diesel

The U.S. Gulf coast ultra low sulfur diesel crack against Cushing WTI closed at $102.67 per barrel Thursday of last week. That is the first close above $100 since October 2022, on a spread that averaged $28.60 in January and $91.80 across August. Distillate inventories fell another 2.2 million barrels in the week ended August 21 and sit about 14% under the five-year average.

The shortage is in refining capacity, not in crude. Middle East refining took damage during the Iran conflict, Hormuz is still a chokepoint, Russian refining and exports keep absorbing drone strikes, and the permanent closures of the COVID years has left no slack anywhere in the system to absorb any of it. U.S. refiners ran flat out at 97.4% of operable capacity in the week ending August 21st, with crude inputs at 17.4 million barrels per day.

A 97.4% run rate means deferred turnarounds, maximum crude receipts and maximum clean product outbound, sustained on margins nobody is willing to walk away from. Roughly 500,000 barrels per day of crude distillation capacity is already scheduled offline in September with more expected as individual refineries update their schedules, which puts a ceiling on how long this run rate holds. Distillate this tight pulls product into inland markets by tank car wherever pipeline space is already committed, and clean product car utilization has been the quiet beneficiary all summer.

The fall turnaround calendar matters more here than the crack itself. A crack over $100 tells you the market has already repriced. September and October maintenance tells you whether it holds. Either way, a clean product car in serviceable condition is worth more than lease rates suggest.

We Are Watching Rail Corridors

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy launched America’s Great Corridors of Commerce last Wednesday, a voluntary program that lets railroads and state transportation departments lease their rights of way for transmission lines, fiber optic cable, water pipelines and other utilities. Right of way owners partner with private sector corridor managers on design, development, operation and maintenance, and the lease revenue is meant to fund track, bridge and tunnel work along the same corridor. The Build America Bureau published a request for information on August 18th and will follow with a request for expressions of interest.

The procedural piece is where the value sits. Using land the railroad already controls avoids assembling private property and lets projects lean on categorical environmental exclusions instead of full reviews. DOT expects to designate up to five corridors in the first round, with those corridors getting priority federal permitting coordination and access to funding and financing programs. Owners that are not designated can still pursue the same partnership structure on their own.

Lease income on otherwise idle right of way is the smaller half of this. Transmission capacity running alongside a rail line makes the adjacent property viable for data centers, manufacturing and processing plants, and those facilities generate construction inbound, feedstock inbound and finished product outbound for as long as they operate. The first five selections will say more about how serious the program is than the announcement did. Worth watching where they land.

We Are Watching Methanol

Methanex is idling its Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago as the facility’s natural gas contract expires this quarter, pulling 860,000 tonnes per year out of the Atlantic basin and putting the unit into preservation. Titan follows the 1.82 million tonne per year Atlas plant, idled since September 2024, which leaves Methanex with nothing running at Point Lisas. Trinidad has historically supplied the majority of the methanol imported through U.S. east coast ports.

The east coast is an import market with no meaningful local production, so the replacement barrels come out of the U.S. Gulf coast. There is no direct rail provider from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast, which is why the northeast truck and rail premium over the Gulf Coast has widened from roughly 8 cents per gallon across 2003 to 2023 to about 32 cents since 2024. Venezuela has taken share this year, capturing about 31% of total U.S. imports through June, though that is a supply source with its own political calendar.

The structural shift from waterborne import to domestic rail movement is the kind of demand that turns up in lease renewals two quarters out. It does not turn up in the spot market. Methanol moves in general purpose non-pressurized service, so this is not a specialty build problem. It is a car availability and routing problem in a lane that has not needed the cars before. PFL’s customers in chemical service should plan on the northeast being a harder lane to cover this winter than last. 

We are watching Copper

A major U.S. copper project received additional federal backing last week as the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) indicated up to $1.1 billion in potential debt financing for Ivanhoe Electric’s Santa Cruz Copper Project in Arizona.

Ivanhoe Electric announced the Preliminary Project Letter last week, increasing the potential EXIM financing from the $825 million contemplated last year. While the financing remains subject to further due diligence, underwriting and final approvals, the increase represents another significant step toward development of a new domestic source of refined copper.

Located near Casa Grande, Arizona, Santa Cruz is being developed as a large-scale underground copper mine designed to process approximately 20,000 tonnes of material per day. Current plans call for average annual production of approximately 72,000 tonnes of 99.99% pure copper cathode during the first 15 years of operation, with an expected mine life of 23 years.

The project is particularly significant as the U.S. looks to expand domestic supplies of critical minerals used in electrical infrastructure, power generation and transmission, manufacturing, technology and national defense. Rather than shipping concentrate elsewhere for processing, Santa Cruz is designed to produce finished copper cathode onsite.

Development activity is also beginning to move closer to construction. Ivanhoe has already received approval for its Site Development Plan and the necessary permits for initial construction activities. Excavation associated with the mine-access system is scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026, followed by additional mine and surface infrastructure development through 2027 and 2028. First copper cathode production is currently targeted for the second quarter of 2029.

For the freight and rail industries, projects of this scale extend well beyond the finished commodity. Mine construction and operation require significant volumes of steel, machinery, construction materials, chemicals and other industrial inputs, while eventual production creates another domestic supply source feeding U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure markets.

The increased financing consideration for Santa Cruz is another indication of the broader push to develop critical-mineral supply chains within the United States. As billions of dollars move into new mines, processing facilities, power infrastructure and manufacturing capacity, those investments can create new freight demand throughout the supply chain.

We are watching Class 1 Industrial Headcount 

Class I railroads employed 115,013 workers in the United States in July 2026, a -0.01% decrease from June 2026’s count of 115,030 and a -3.32% year-over-year decrease from July 2025’s total of 118,965, according to Surface Transportation Board data. 

Three of the six employment categories posted month-over-month increases between June and July 2026. These were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, up 0.49% to 7,992 workers; Professional and Administrative, which increased 1.67% to 8,872 workers; and Transportation (train and engine), which increased 0.06% to 48,993 workers.

The categories that posted month-over-month decreases were Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -0.53% to 28,641 workers; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -0.36% to 15,888 workers; and Transportation (other than train and engine), down -0.39% to 4,627 workers.

No employment categories posted a year-over-year gain in July 2026.

Categories that registered year-over-year decreases in July 2026 were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, down -0.11%; Professional and Administrative, down -4.62%; Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -1.50%; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -6.62%; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -6.69%; and Transportation (train and engine), down -3.20%.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Spending

In July 2026, total consumer spending adjusted for inflation was essentially unchanged from June 2026, rising less than 0.1% and marking a sharp slowdown from the 0.4% increase recorded in June. The slowdown suggests that rising consumer prices absorbed much of the modest increase in household spending, limiting growth in the volume of goods and services purchased.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending showed little overall growth in July. Current-dollar spending on services increased by $86.2 billion, while spending on goods declined by $49.9 billion, indicating a continued shift toward services as consumers reduced spending on goods.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppers located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 50, 28.3K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Kansas/Oklahoma. For use in Fuel Oil service. Period: 6 Months.
• 100, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Diesel service. Period: 1 year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.
• 15, 5750 CF Hopper located off of CSX, NS, CP, CN, BNSF, UP in St Louis. Last used in Grain.
• 50, 30 DOT 111 Tank located off of multiple class 1s in multiple location. Last used in Fuels.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

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Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending August 15, 2026 came in at 206,000, versus the adjusted number of 212,000 people from the week prior, down 6,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,799,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,781,000 people from the week prior, up 18,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week, but lower week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 517.8 points (0.98%), closing out the week at 53,277.01, down -455.40 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 33.21 points (0.43%), and closed out the week at 7,674.37, down -111.39 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 113.29 points (0.43%), and closed out the week at 26,180.45, down -548.71 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 53,335 this morning, down 18 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $0.23 per barrel (0.26%), to close at $87.06 on Friday of last week, and up $4.66 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $0.61 per barrel (0.65%), to close at $94.39, up $5.87 per barrel week-over-week.  

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for October delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$16.50 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$67.63 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.4 million barrels week-over-week. At 428.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 700,000 barrels week-over-week and are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 13% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2 million barrels week-over-week and are 31% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 67.9 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 2.4 cents per gallon week-over-week, and up 1.5 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 8.8 million barrels week-over-week during the week ending August 14, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day during the week ending August 14, 2026, a decrease of 746,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day, 1.2% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 366,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 109,000 barrels per day during the week ending August 14, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.066 million barrels per day during the week ending August 14, 2026, an increase of 1.008 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.569 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.4 million barrels per day during the week ending August 14, 2026, which was 215,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $85.23, down -$1.83 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending August 19, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+2.10%) in week 34, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending August 19, 2026 were 331,062, up (+2.48%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 352,258, up (+1.75%) year over year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-10.25%). The largest increase was Other (+12.01%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+1.87%), with the largest decrease coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-10.19%), while the largest increase came from Other (+23.01%). NS’s total volumes were down (-0.28%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+14.08%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-17.58%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+3.04%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+27.86%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-6.29%). UP’s total volumes were up (+4.09%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+10.97%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-7.83%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+2.70%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+27.86%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-18.63%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-3.21%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+38.17%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-18.16%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was down by -8 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week, but up by +50 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 588 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -3 rigs week-over-week but up by +36 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 216 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +86 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 30,201 from 29,912 which was an increase of +289 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were lower. CN’s shipments were lower by -5.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were lower by -7.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly lower. The UP was the sole gainer and was up by +1.0% week-over-week. The BNSF had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -7.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA). DOE’s most recent publicly documented award total remains more than 133 million barrels, while the department has continued executing the broader 172-million-barrel commitment.

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions. The IEA’s coordinated action remains the largest emergency oil-stock release in the agency’s history.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 293.426 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since December 1982. The SPR declined by 5.268 million barrels during the week ending August 14, 2026. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 121.638 million barrels, equivalent to an average of roughly 868,843 barrels per day through the week ending August 14, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have partially recovered from their initial near-shutdown, the IEA continues to identify significant uncertainty surrounding the pace and durability of the recovery.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. DOE has stated that its exchange structure is designed to return the borrowed crude with additional premium barrels, with the stated objective of strengthening the SPR over time.

We Continue to Watch Tariffs

Trade talks collapsed between Canada and the United States late last Friday night. Left wing Prime Minister Carney suspended negotiations and recalled Canada’s negotiators minutes before the deadline, saying last-minute changes to the U.S. terms were unfair, uneconomic and called into question the reliability of any deal. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer countered that new Canadian demands and walk-backs had upended a package that included tariff reductions on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. 50% Section 338 duties took effect in the early hours of last Saturday on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, and no further talks are scheduled.

What is not on the list matters more to this readership than what is. Energy, potash and critical minerals were carved out, so crude, refined products and fertilizer continue to move on current terms. The duties hit motor vehicles, alcohol, dairy, cement and building materials, clothing, furniture and hockey equipment, amounting to something over 5% of Canadian exports to the U.S. Carney has committed to match dollar for dollar, and the composition of that retaliation is the number worth waiting for, because Ottawa’s counter-tariffs in the last round reached well beyond the sectors Washington had targeted.

The Keystone XL revival the President floated Tuesday of last week goes back in the drawer alongside everything else. TC Energy cancelled the project in 2021 and wrote it off, no sponsor has put its name to a rebuild, and South Bow is already repurposing about 150 km of unused Keystone XL pipe into the proposed 550,000 b/d Prairie Connector. Most of the Canadian-side capacity being celebrated midweek was already in a queue under a different name, with a different owner, at roughly two thirds the volume. Any pipeline that was a bargaining chip midweek and gone by the weekend, was never a fleet planning input.

For rail the direct exposure is limited today, since the carve-out covers the commodities that fill tank cars and most covered hoppers. The second-order exposure is real enough: manifest volumes moving autos, lumber and building products across the border, and whatever Ottawa selects for retaliation. It seems to us at PFL, that the durable lesson from the week is that Washington will now put pipeline approvals on the table as tariff currency, and Ottawa will walk away rather than take the trade. That is a different negotiating world than the one Canadian shippers planned around two years ago, and we will be keeping our eye on this one.

We Continue to Watch the UP – NS Merger

The Surface Transportation Board removed the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern proceedings from abeyance last Tuesday and adopted a procedural schedule, having held the case since May pending supplemental filings the applicants delivered on July 7th and July 27th. Notices of intent to participate are due September 4th, comments and protests on the merits are due November 18th, preliminary comments from the Departments of Justice and Transportation are due December 3rd, and responses are due February 16, 2027. The schedule carries the evidentiary record past of May 28, 2027, with a final decision due within 90 days of the close of record.

The Board was careful to say that resuming the review reflects no view on the merits. It was less careful in its treatment of the applicants’ workpapers, finding that Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern had filtered out data they considered immaterial before submission, in several instances stripping substantial portions of the underlying analysis, and directing them to resubmit with unfiltered data. The Board also denied the request to sever the Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis divestiture into an expedited side proceeding, keeping it inside the main case.

BNSF, CSX, the Freight Rail Customer Alliance and the National Grain and Feed Association had asked for the longest evidentiary period the statute allows, and they got most of it. This is the first Class I combination to be judged under the tougher 2001 rules requiring applicants to show a merger enhances competition, rather than merely preserving it, and the Board has now signalled it intends to take the full statutory runway to do so.

For shippers the practical consequence is another eighteen months of planning against two possible networks. PFL is working with customers whose lease renewals and routing assumptions now straddle a decision date that keeps moving out, and we would rather build that optionality in at signing than negotiate it later.

We are Watching the Bakken

North Dakota Mineral Resources Director Nathan Anderson delivered the Director’s tale on crude oil production in North Dakota on Thursday of last week. June output averaged 1.153 million b/d, up 28,000 b/d in May and the highest since November. The state’s market price for June was $80.56 against a revenue forecast built on $59, with WTI trading near $86 at the time of the briefing. Wells waiting on completion fell to 290 from 328, the lowest since early 2025, which tells you operators are converting inventory, rather than waiting on price.

The rig count is the number that matters for 2027 volumes. North Dakota was running 33 rigs in mid-August against 26 in mid-July, and five of the additions came from operators that had no rig in the state a month earlier, among them Eben Operating, Firebird Services, Iron Oil Operating, Murex Petroleum and Zavanna Energy Operating. Producing wells hit an all-time high of 19,961. First-half output still runs roughly 25,000 b/d below the same period of 2025, so this is a recovery, rather than a boom.

Pipeline takes the marginal barrel first, and it will keep doing so until it is full. Bakken unit train economics to the Gulf Coast sit near $10.40 a barrel and to Philadelphia near $10.80, which is a rate that clears only when a coastal refiner is short or when a differential opens wide enough to pay for it. Seven more rigs, a shrinking uncompleted well inventory and a state price above $80 all push in the same direction over the next several quarters.

The fleet is the constraint, not the demand. There are not many DOT-117J crude cars sitting idle, build slots run one to two years out, and leasing companies and car owners are asking five-year commitments before they will commit equipment, with the Class Ones echoing similar long-term terms. It seems to us at PFL, that shippers who wait for the differential to confirm a trade may find the cars already spoken for. Time will tell, and it remains geopolitically dependent, but this is the closest the Bakken has looked to a rail cycle in some time. Call PFL before you need the cars, not after.

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith spent Thursday of last week at the Canadian Energy Executive Association conference in Banff defending the “grand bargain,” the trilateral memorandum that ties the Pathways carbon capture project and a revamped carbon pricing scheme to federal approval of a West Coast pipeline. Smith argued the memorandum gives industry flexibility and removes the timeline-driven approach of the previous Liberal government.

The arithmetic deserves an airing. Pathways as announced in 2021 targeted 22 million tonnes per year of emissions reductions by 2030, with oil sands operators committing to capture 10 to 12 million tonnes. Under the memorandum the carbon capture target is 6 million tonnes per year by the mid-2030s, with a further 10 million tonnes by 2045 not tied to any specific technology. That is a 73% cut to the 2030 capture target and roughly a decade of slippage, and Ottawa is presenting it as a breakthrough.

Producers are not behaving as though a breakthrough occurred. Canadian Natural has 340,000 b/d of growth on hold pending definitive agreements, specifically the 30,000 b/d Jackfish expansion, 70,000 b/d Pike 2, a 150,000 b/d Jackpine mine and 90,000 b/d of extraction and froth treatment at Horizon. The governments set themselves a November 15th deadline to convert the memorandum into definitive agreements. Suncor has said it is not yet willing to accelerate, and Enbridge postponed its Mainline second phase in the same fortnight.

The Prime Minister spent a year defending an emissions cap and now asks for credit for a non-binding document that the country’s largest oil sands operators will not yet spend against. In our opinion, a memorandum that leaves a quarter of a million barrels a day of announced projects parked is not policy success, it is policy postponement, and the November deadline is the only part of it worth marking on a calendar.

We are Watching the CPKC

Members of IBEW Canadian Signals and Communications System Council 11 rejected CPKC’s latest offer earlier this month, with 256 of 287 voting against on a 97% turnout. That is an 89% rejection twelve weeks into a strike that began May 31st and involves roughly 300 signals and communications employees between Vancouver and Montreal.

The dispute is over wages, on-call obligations, employee expenses and scheduling. CPKC has pointed to the seven-days-on, seven-days-off rotation already used by its Calgary workers as a template, while the union argues it does not transfer to communities such as Revelstoke. The railway says its contingency plans remain in place and operations continue, and it is separately relocating 123 Revelstoke railroaders to Kamloops. The union has filed 19 complaints with the Canada Industrial Relations Board.

The timing is what gives this a freight consequence rather than a labour-page consequence. CPKC closed the 2025-2026 crop year with a record 30.66 million tonnes of Canadian grain, 11% above the prior year, and the new crop year opened August 1st. The railway’s service plan contemplates up to 700,000 tonnes a week while the Port of Thunder Bay is open, supported by newly leased high-capacity hopper cars coming on line this month. Signals and communications work is invisible right up until the moment it constrains train spacing, and harvest peak is six to eight weeks out.

We are Watching Refining

U.S. refineries ran at 97.2% of operable capacity in the week ending on August 14th, up a full percentage point on the week, with crude inputs averaging 17.4 million b/d. Distillate inventories fell 1.5 million barrels to 105.6 million and sit about 13% below the five-year average, the tightest part of the barrel. Crude inputs through the first seven months of 2026, have been the highest since 2019, and the EIA expects crack spreads to keep runs near the top of the five-year range through year-end.

A refining system running flat out bids aggressively for every heavy barrel it can cover, and that bid is what keeps the Western Canadian Select discount narrow. Narrow discounts are the enemy of crude by rail economics. The rail move needs a wide spread to pay for itself, and refiners at 97% utilization are actively working against that spread by competing for the same barrels that would otherwise be stranded.

The offset is that a system with no spare capacity has no tolerance for an outage. A fire, a turnaround that runs long or a lightning strike on a products terminal removes barrels the market has no cushion to replace, and the arbitrage windows that open in those moments are short and steep. PFL has watched enough to know that these events do happen and happen without notice.  Having spare equipment as a contingency is not a bad idea call PFL today to trouble shoot all your rail car needs,

We Continue to Watch Enbridge

Building on our coverage of the Mainline over the past several weeks, the postponement of Mainline Optimization Phase 2 is hardening into something closer to a shelving. The Line 26 Optimization project page came off Enbridge’s website on July 31st, and the landowner open houses that had been planned across southeast Saskatchewan for this fall are no longer scheduled. Line 26 was to be reversed to carry Canadian crude south from Cromer to connect with Dakota Access, which made it the single most direct competitor to Bakken and Alberta rail volumes.

Capital is going to the U.S. end of the system instead. Enbridge is advancing a 100,000 b/d Flanagan South expansion and a 50,000 b/d Southern Access Extension through open season, and Mainline Optimization Phase 1, worth 150,000 b/d on the Mainline and 100,000 b/d on Flanagan South, remains on track for 2027. Liquids pipelines president Colin Gruending has said producers will not make commitments capable of supporting a final investment decision until the regulatory framework is settled, and has flagged a small system imbalance around 2028.

There is a structural reason Enbridge cannot solve this the way its competitors can. The Mainline is a common carrier with capacity nominated monthly, so it cannot underwrite an expansion with the long-term take-or-pay contracts available to Trans Mountain, the proposed West Coast line or Prairie Connector. The 250,000 b/d that Phase 2 would have carried, does not disappear from the basin. It sits in the ground, in storage, or on a train.

Tank cars on line across the six largest North American railroads averaged 257,637 in the week ended August 19th, against a trough near 247,000 last December. That is roughly 10,000 additional tank cars absorbed into the network in eight months, and the fleet is not being rebuilt at anything close to that pace. PFL has been saying for some time that egress delays end up on rail, and the equipment market is already pricing what the pipeline announcements have not yet admitted. Give us a call while there are still cars out there to talk about.  After saying that on a geopolitical basis the dynamics could change over night with the opening of the strait.

We are watching Key Economic Indicators

Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing accounts for approximately 75% of total output. Manufacturing output in July increased 0.20% from June 2026.

Capacity utilization is a measure of how fully firms are using machinery and equipment. Capacity utilization increased by 0.08% from June in July.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppers located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 50, 28.3K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Kansas/Oklahoma. For use in Fuel Oil service. Period: 6 Months.
• 100, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Diesel service. Period: 1 year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.
• 15, 5750 CF Hopper located off of CSX, NS, CP, CN, BNSF, UP in St Louis. Last used in Grain.
• 50, 30 DOT 111 Tank located off of multiple class 1s in multiple location. Last used in Fuels.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 8-24-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending August 8, 2026 came in at 209,000, versus the adjusted number of 200,000 people from the week prior, up 9,000 people week over week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,777,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,799,000 people from the week prior, down 22,000 week-over-week. 

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week, but mixed week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -107.58 points (-0.2%), closing out the week at 53,732.41, down -304.52 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -13.23 points (-0.17%), and closed out the week at 7,785.76, up 28.12 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -73.86 points (-0.28%), and closed out the week at 26,729.16, up 38.54 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 53,712 this morning, down -95 points from Friday’s close.

WTI Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week, and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $1.15 per barrel (1.42%), to close at $82.40 on Friday of last week, and up $4.22 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $1.45 per barrel (1.67%), to close at $88.52, up $4.97 per barrel week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for September delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$16.55 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$63.43 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 17.4 million barrels week-over-week. At 424.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1 million barrels week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 100,000 barrels week-over-week and are 12% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels week-over-week and are 31% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 65.5 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 1.6 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 1.2 cents year-over-year. 

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 15.7 million barrels week-over-week during the week ending August 7, 2026. 

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day during the week ending August 7, 2026, an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day week-over-week.  U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day during the week ending August 7, 2026, increased by 1.14 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day, 0.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 583,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 111,000  barrels per day during the week ending August 7, 2026

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.058 million barrels per day during the week ending August 7, 2026, a decrease of 627,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.391 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending August 7, 2026, which was 26,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $82.93, up $0.53 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending August 12, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+4.90%) in week 33, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending August 12, 2026 were 339,555, up (+5.52%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 359,464, up (+4.31%) year over year. 9 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-4.35%). The largest increase was Metallic Ores and Metals (+14.49%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+6.83%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-2.08%), while the largest increase came from Metallic Ores and Metals (+19.51%). NS’s total volumes were up (+3.54%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+25.84%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-9.50%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+4.27%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+34.02%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-15.77%). UP’s total volumes were up (+6.89%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+20.55%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-2.19%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+1.07%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+20.31%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-21.85%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+1.98%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+47.32%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-24.39%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was up by +8 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was up by +5 rigs week-over-week, and up by +54 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 593 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by +3 rigs week-over-week and up by +36 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 219 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +90 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,912 from 29,770 which was an increase of +142 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +7.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +3.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly higher. The CSX was the sole decliner and was down by -9.0% week-over-week. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +6.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA). DOE’s most recent publicly documented award total remains more than 133 million barrels, while the department has continued executing the broader 172-million-barrel commitment.

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions. The IEA’s coordinated action remains the largest emergency oil-stock release in the agency’s history.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 298.694 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since January 1983. The SPR declined by approximately 6.1 million barrels during the week ending August 7, which is one of the largest weekly withdrawals of the current emergency drawdown. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 116.748 million barrels, equivalent to an average of roughly 833,914 barrels per day through the week ending August 7, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have partially recovered from their initial near-shutdown, the IEA continues to identify significant uncertainty surrounding the pace and durability of the recovery.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. DOE has stated that its exchange structure is designed to return the borrowed crude with additional premium barrels, with the stated objective of strengthening the SPR over time.

We Are Watching Rail Car Storage

Weekly service data, filed with the Surface Transportation Board, shows the same tightening. Tank cars on line across the six Class I railroads stood near 257,000 in the week ending Wednesday of last week, up roughly 7,700 since January and about 4,700 higher than a year ago. Velocity is not helping matters: five of the six Class I’s have run slower over the past eight weeks than their 2026 averages, and slower railroads soak up cars.

The supply side is not keeping a steady pace. Industry orders in the second quarter came in around 5,800 cars against roughly 6,200 a year earlier, and build slots for new tank cars stretch well into 2027. A DOT-117J’s coiled and isolated car now commands $1,000 (+/-) per car per month for a one-to-five-year term. It seems to us at PFL that the easy capacity is starting to come back to come back to work, and much of what remains in storage as it relates to tank cars is a fleet nobody really wants (DOT 111, CPC 1238’s, 117R’s). We will be keeping our eye on this one.  Call PFL today for available tank cars.

We Continue to Watch Crude by Rail

Canadian crude by rail exports averaged 87,977 barrels per-day in May, up 4% from April, 30% higher than a year earlier, and the highest monthly volume since November 2024. Volumes have climbed steadily off the March low of about 74,200 barrels per-day. Last year averaged roughly 77,000 barrels per-day, a 13-year low, so the direction of travel has changed.

The push is coming from the pipelines. Enbridge apportioned heavy crude nominations on the Mainline by 14% for May flow, and Trans Mountain ran near effective capacity through springtime before accepting all nominations for August. Western Canadian Select at Hardisty closed at $16.55 per barrel under WTI at Houston last week for September delivery, at the edge of the range where rail works for shippers without commitments, against an Alberta to Gulf coast unit train rate near $16.80 per barrel.

CPKC said second quarter crude volumes grew in both conventional service and undiluted bitumen out of the Hardisty diluent recovery unit, though Gibson has left its expansion of that facility on the back burner while pipeline space lasts. Producers keep adding barrels: Cenovus expects to run above 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with new in-situ volumes at Leismer and Blackrod ramping through 2027. Not many 117J crude cars are available, build times could run one to two years, and car owners still want five-year commitments to build new cars, so any move back to rail will be slow. It seems to us at PFL that the lease commitments, and not the arbitrage, will set the pace of whatever comes next. Time will certainly tell!

We Continue to Watch Enbridge

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers approved the Line 5 tunnel Wednesday of last week, finding the project “not contrary to the public interest” in its record of decision. The review was fast-tracked under the January 2025 energy emergency order. The tunnel would carry a new 30-inch segment of the 540,000 barrel per day line beneath the Straits of Mackinac, replacing the two aging 20-inch pipes that sit exposed on the lakebed.

Construction still cannot begin. The Michigan Supreme Court vacated the state permit at the end of July, ruling that the Public Service Commission ran to narrow of a review, and Governor Whitmer and Attorney General Nessel continue to press for a full shutdown of the line. Six years into permitting, the project now holds a federal blessing but no state path.

Alberta and Ontario, for their part, keep studying the Northern Shield corridor, a 2,050-mile line from Hardisty to Sarnia that would bypass Michigan and the U.S. entirely. We have said before that we doubt Line 5 ever gets shut down, and nothing last week changed our view. Stay tuned to PFL.

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

Ottawa launched a CA$100 million rebate program last week covering half the cost of moving Canadian steel between provinces by rail or water. Applications under the Commodities Sectoral Support Program opened August 10th, and the money runs to summer 2027 or until it is claimed. Only steel with a Canadian origin and destination qualifies, in carload service for rail.

The arithmetic is simple enough. A 50% rebate means the fund covers about CA$4,000 in line-haul, the program is good for roughly 50,000 subsidized carloads, call it 1,000 cars a week for a year. Gondola and coil car demand gets a real bump, and the carriers will take it. But, the program exists because the U.S. tariff wall took away the export market, and the government is now paying to redirect steel it can no longer sell south.

Meanwhile, the Canada Gazette comment period on the national interest designation for a West Coast pipeline closes September 18. A subsidy for domestic steel movements and a comment period for a pipeline: seemingly that is the industrial strategy. It’s just a program for now; time will tell. Where is the money coming from is what we ask!

We Are Watching Grain

CN closed the 2025-26 crop year with a record 33.8 million metric tonnes of grain out of western Canada, announced last Tuesday, beating the prior record of 31.2 million tonnes set a year earlier. July alone came in at 2.62 million tonnes, past a July record that had stood since 2020. The railroad’s new grain plan calls for 30 to 33 million tonnes in 2026-27, which pushes toward the top of what its network can sustain.

CPKC set its own record: 30.66 million tonnes of Canadian grain and grain products for the crop year, with second quarter grain carloads up 18% to a record 168,000. Here in the U.S., grain carloads are up 13% through July, nearly 81,000 cars, the biggest absolute gain of any commodity group.

The equipment is following the crop. Covered hoppers on line across the Class I’s are up about 13,400 since January and are back near the highs of last spring. Two record crop years back to back, both Canadian railroads planning for a third, and the covered hopper fleet already working hard. Harvest will tell us the rest! 

We Are Watching Tariffs

The Commerce Department proposed adding another 14 product categories to the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs on August 6th, with comments due August 27th. Rail cars have been inside the tariff wall since last year’s derivative expansion, and tank cars have been assessed on full value since April.

GATX flagged unresolved tariff exposure on new cars during its second quarter call. Between tariffed steel, tariffed components, and a builder backlog stretching into 2027, replacement cost on a new tank car keeps moving in one direction. Lease rates are holding firm, and renewals get priced off replacement cost.

It seems to us at PFL that fleet decisions made over the next few quarters will be made against a structurally higher cost base, and the comment docket closes in under two weeks. We will be keeping our eye on this one!

We Continue to Watch the UP and NS Merger

Seven Republican State Attorney Generals have asked the Surface Transportation Board to reject the $85 billion Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern combination in a letter entered into the record on Tuesday of last week. Montana’s Austin Knudsen led the filing, joined by the attorneys general of Florida, Iowa, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota and Tennessee. It is the third such letter from the group since the application was filed.

This round takes aim at the railroads’ proposed Committed Gateway Pricing arrangement, which would protect rates on certain existing interline moves with BNSF and CSX through Chicago, St. Louis, Memphis and New Orleans. The states argue the remedy preserves a narrow slice of what shippers already have and creates no new routing option for anyone. Two days later, the same group asked the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division to weigh in on the deal.

The board may still find a path to approval with conditions, and the railroads continue to argue the combination improves service by taking out interchange points. For shippers, the outcome will shape routing options, cycle times and car utilization on every east-west move for a generation. We will keep following the docket.

We Are Watching the Gulf Coast

Williams agreed to acquire Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5 billion earlier this month, adding more than 4,000 miles of Haynesville gathering pipe, 6 Bcf per day of capacity and two expansion projects pointed at Gulf Coast LNG and power demand. The deal includes the $1.5 billion Delta Access expansion along the Transco corridor, targeted for 2029.

Cheniere, for its part, said first LNG from the seventh and final train of its Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion is expected imminently, and raised 2026 production guidance to 53 to 54 million tonnes. Trains 8 and 9 are already under construction next door. The buildout has run ahead of schedule the whole way.

Every incremental Bcf that flows into Gulf Coast liquefaction and the crackers beside it pulls plastics, LPGs and chemicals into rail-served supply chains. Plastic hopper and pressure car demand follows this buildout, with a lag measured in quarters. Worth watching as the projects come online.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Producer Price Index

In July 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was unchanged month-over-month, following a 0.1% decline in June, indicating that overall producer price pressures stabilized after the sharp increases earlier in the year. Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) increased 0.4% month over month, accelerating from June’s 0.1% increase and indicating that underlying producer-price pressures remained elevated despite the stability in headline PPI. The monthly results reflected a 0.7% decline in final demand goods, which followed a 1.4% decline in June, while final demand services increased 0.2%. Within goods, energy prices declined 3.1%, led by a 5.7% drop in gasoline prices, while food prices fell 0.9%. Goods less foods and energy increased 0.1%. Within services, prices rose 0.2%, with services less trade, transportation, and warehousing increasing 0.6%, while transportation and warehousing declined 1.8% and trade services fell 0.1%. Overall, the July data showed that lower energy and goods prices continued to restrain headline PPI, while underlying service-sector and core producer prices remained firm.

In July 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% month-over-month, reversing June’s 0.4% decline, while the index was up 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) increased 0.2% month-over-month and was up 2.5% year over year. Shelter increased 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase, while food prices also increased 0.1%. Energy prices declined 1.5% during the month, helping to limit the overall increase in headline inflation. Within core inflation, medical care, airline fares, communication, education, and recreation increased, while motor vehicle insurance declined. The July report showed a modest reacceleration in monthly inflation after June’s decline, although the 12-month headline and core measures both continued to ease, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain elevated, but are gradually moderating.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppers located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 50, 28.3K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Kansas/Oklahoma. For use in Fuel Oil service. Period: 6 Months.
• 100, 28.3K 117J Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Diesel service. Period: 1 year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.
• 15, 5750 CF Hopper located off of CSX, NS, CP, CN, BNSF, UP in St Louis. Last used in Grain.
• 50, 30 DOT 111 Tank located off of multiple class 1s in multiple location. Last used in Fuels.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 8-17-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending August 1, 2026 came in at 199,000, versus the adjusted number of 198,000 people from the week prior, up 1,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,801,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,777,000 people from the week prior, up 24,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 151.83 points (0.28%), closing out the week at 54,036.93, up 1,551.90 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 47.68 points (0.62%), and closed out the week at 7,757.64, up 267.92 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 342.26 points (1.30%), and closed out the week at 26,690.62, up 1,316.77 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 54,123 this morning, down 29 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week, but lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $0.89 per barrel (1.15%), to close at $78.18 on Friday of last week, but down $6.49 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $1.06 per barrel (1.3%), to close at $83.55, but down $6.57 per barrel week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for September delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$14.70 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$61.04 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week. At 407 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels week-over-week and are 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 12% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 800,000 barrels week-over-week and are 32% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 67.1 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 5.1 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 4.7 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2 million barrels week-over-week   during the week ending July 31, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day  during the week ending July 31, 2026, an increase of 515,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day, 4.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 463,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 99,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 31, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.685 million barrels per day during the week ending July 31, 2026, an increase of 218,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.557 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day, during the week ending July 31, 2026, which was 183,000 barrels per day less week-over-week. 

WTI is poised to open at $78.80, up $0.62 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending August 5, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+3.56%) in week 32, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending August 5, 2026 were 336,462, up (+2.53%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 355,383, up (+4.54%) year over year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-4.23%). The largest increase was Metallic Ores and Metals (+9.96%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+3.21%), with the largest decrease coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (-8.26%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+26.94%). NS’s total volumes were up (+3.30%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+30.30%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-11.87%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+6.02%), with the largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+20.45%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-5.14%). UP’s total volumes were up (+2.10%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+14.70%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-13.70%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+0.48%), with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+22.53%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-15.32%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+5.16%), with the largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+14.64%), while the largest decrease came from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (-2.52%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was down by -3 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was unchanged week-over-week, and up by +49 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 588 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -3 rigs week-over-week but up by +36 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 216 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +85 rigs collectively.

International rig count was up by +23 rigs month-over-month and up by +17 rigs year-over-year. Internationally there are 1096 active rigs.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,770 from 29,612 which was an increase of +158 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +2.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +2.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly higher. The UP was the sole decliner and was down by -5.0% week-over-week. The NS had the largest percentage increase and was up by +11.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 304.785 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since March 1983. Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 1.03 million barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending July 31, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Are Watching Line 5

The Michigan Supreme Court ruled 6 to 1 on July 31 that the Michigan Public Service Commission erred when it granted a key permit for the Line 5 tunnel beneath the Straits of Mackinac, vacating the permit and sending it back to the commission. The majority found the commission conducted a review that was too narrow, failed to consider whether the tunnel would harm public trust resources, and never studied whether Line 5 would shut down if the tunnel were not built. Writing for the majority, Justice Elizabeth Welch said that to assess the environmental consequences accurately the commission should have determined whether the project would be the proximate cause of the pipeline continuing to operate.

The 58-page opinion also held that the Court of Appeals wrongly deferred to the commission on its determination under the Michigan Environmental Protection Act rather than reviewing the question independently. The project would reroute a four-mile segment of the 645-mile pipeline that currently sits exposed on the lakebed, carrying crude oil and natural gas liquids from Superior, Wisconsin to Sarnia, Ontario.  The pipeline also feeds Michiganders with the energy it needs to power the state and is almost impossible to replace by rail in the current environment.  The commission approved the permit in December 2023 and the Court of Appeals upheld that approval in February 2025. The practical effect is that a review process already running eight years now restarts at the commission, with no timetable attached.

Refineries in the Sarnia complex depend on Line 5 volumes that originate in western Canada but route through the United States for both countries’ mutual benefit. For Canada, there is a Northern Shield Energy Corridor proposed pipeline that would run roughly 2,050 miles from Hardisty to Sarnia and bypass the United States entirely. That could solve Canada’s problem but is years away and won’t do anything for Michigan. The Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer, has wanted line 5 shut down for years and is seemingly getting closer to realizing her wish.  At PFL, we thought this one would go away because it does not make sense. Enbridge said it was disappointed with the decision.  Stay tuned to PFL, we have been watching this one for years and will continue to do so!

We Are Watching Bridger

South Bow reported second quarter results on Wednesday of last week and detailed its egress plans on Thursday. The company secured 20 year binding commitments from nine customers totaling 465,000 barrels per day of firm transportation service from Hardisty, Alberta to United States delivery points.

The route matters more than the quarter. The proposed Prairie Connector would run 330 miles from Hardisty to the Canada and United States border, built from roughly 240 miles of new 36 inch pipeline plus about 95 miles of previously installed and preserved 36 inch pipe together with two pump stations, before connecting to Bridger Pipeline facilities downstream. South Bow and Bridger are jointly developing the proposed Liberty Bridge Pipeline along a route that follows an existing corridor on privately held land. Chief executive Bevin Wirzba said achieving commercial success has moved the project into the next development phase, with a final investment decision targeted for mid 2027.

Wirzba was equally direct about the obstacle, describing permit durability as a key requirement and pointing to the stakeholder engagement, execution planning, cost refinement and financing work still ahead. South Bow expects its share of pre-decision development costs this year to run about 65 million dollars. The guidance worth holding onto, is the company’s own supply view, which is that western Canadian crude supply grows only modestly through 2026 and production remains below total pipeline egress capacity.

This project however hit a stumbling block on July 22.  In a surprising decision, the Montana Department of Environmental Quality on July 22nd withdrew a waiver it had previously granted to the Bridger Pipeline Expansion, a project expected to run from Canada through Montana and Wyoming.

The waiver allowed Bridger Pipeline Expansion, LLC to omit certain financial information and baseline environmental data from its state permit application with DEQ. Bridger must receive this permit, along with federal approval, to begin construction on the 650-mile pipeline, which permit application documents say will break ground in July of 2027.  Stay tuned to PFL for further details.

We Continue to Watch the Surface Transportation Board

Both sides of the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern application moved within 48 hours of each other last week. On Thursday the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, the American Chemistry Council, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, The Fertilizer Institute and the National Industrial Transportation League filed a joint motion asking the Board to deny the merger application outright. CSX and BNSF filed separately the same day seeking the same relief, with BNSF telling the Board that ending the proceeding now would avoid wasteful hearings and spare the industry a protracted review of a transaction that cannot be approved on this record.

The motion turns on a narrow question rather than the merits. The coalition argues the applicants have failed to establish a prima facie case that the transaction is consistent with the public interest, which is a preliminary screen assessing only the sufficiency of the evidence submitted, viewed in the most favorable light. The Board opened that door itself in May, when it accepted the application as complete but held the proceeding in abeyance and ordered supplemental information by July 27th, noting its review might include an evaluation of whether a prima facie case had been presented. The groups argue the supplemental filings still fail to address the full range of competitive harms, propose conditions that would enhance competition, document the benefit claims, or account for the likely impact of future mergers. AFPM put it more bluntly, saying that after three attempts the applicants have not demonstrated the merger would enhance competition or serve the public interest.

The applicants are not short of support. More than 2,000 businesses, unions, farmers and community leaders have filed with the Board in favor of the transaction, and Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern continue to argue the combination removes a mid-continent handoff that adds time, cost and uncertainty for shippers. What makes this filing different is the burden itself, since this is the first major merger tested under the 2001 rules, which require applicants to show a transaction enhances competition rather than merely preserves it.

It seems to us at PFL that both camps are describing the same underlying problem, which is interchange friction, and disagreeing only about whether consolidation is the remedy. Fleet planning through 2027 should assume this review runs its full course. 

We are Watching Clearing Yard

The Surface Transportation Board wrote to the Belt Railway Company of Chicago on August 3 and copied the presidents and chief executives of all six Class I railroads. Average railcar inventory at Clearing Yard reached 5,048 cars in week 30, up 57% from 3,212 cars in the same week of 2025, while average dwell rose 72% from 18 hours to 31 hours. Measured from the beginning of April, average weekly inventory is up 26% from 4,012 cars and average yard dwell is up 63% from 19 hours.

The Board called the simultaneous increase in car inventory and dwell concern and said it could indicate growing congestion in the larger Chicago complex and the region, warning that severe and persistent congestion around Chicago can impair regional fluidity with ripple effects reaching across the network. The Belt Railway must explain the trends, set out how it will work with the Class I carriers to return service to normal, and file weekly reports covering dwell, inventory, cars humped, cars rehumped, cars received, cars departed and on-time departure percentage until both dwell and inventory have normalized on a sustained basis to 2025 levels.

Clearing Yard covers 786 acres across 5.5 miles, supports more than 250 miles of track, and dispatches more than 8,400 cars a day, which makes it the busiest classification facility in Chicago. Independent analyst Rick Paterson flagged the trend a day before the Board did, noting in his State of the Rails Report that the railroad triggers a yellow alert at 4,800 average daily cars and a red alert at 5,100, leaving it between the two, and that inventory has topped 5,000 for the first time in data going back to 2017. The increase coincides with CSX reducing use of its Barr Yard in April in favor of Clearing and, to a lesser extent, the Indiana Harbor Belt, although the Board letter did not attribute the deterioration to that change.

There is a second reading worth noting. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern have built much of their merger case on the proposition that mid-continent interchange is the structural bottleneck in the network, and the Board has now opened a separate inquiry into exactly that gateway. Whichever way the congestion question resolves, the data series that begins today will be quoted back into the merger docket.

PFL advises clients with cars routing through Chicago to revisit cycle time assumptions now rather than at renewal. Thirteen additional hours of dwell at a single classification yard is capacity removed from a fleet.

We Are Watching the Federal Railroad Administration

The Federal Railroad Administration published a notice of proposed rulemaking on July 31 under Docket FRA-2026-2014, opening a 60 day comment period. The rule would establish English language proficiency as a requirement for a railroad to certify and recertify locomotive engineers and conductors, and would mandate that all training and testing for certification be conducted in English. The agency says proficiency is essential because railroad rules, practices and communications in the United States all take place in English.

The border provisions are the sharper end of the proposal. Crews based in Mexico would be limited to operating no more than 10 route miles into the United States, and the United States railroad running the train would have to train, test and certify those crews directly, rather than rely on Mexican certification. The agency has determined that the proficiency requirement alone is not sufficient at the southern border. Canadian crews would need English proficiency but face no distance limit, because the agency finds United States and Canadian standards already align.

The proposal follows December 2025 inspections of cross-border operations on Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, where inspectors observed inbound crew members having difficulty interpreting general track bulletins and communicating safety requirements in English. Two further provisions matter to operations. Skill testing and observation of engineers would have to be conducted without cruise-control type systems that reduce the need to work the throttle or brakes, and territorial qualification would be narrowed to the specific direction traveled during qualification. Both major operating unions endorsed the proposal, while CPKC and the Association of American Railroads declined to comment while they study it, and Union Pacific said only that it shares the goal of safe operations that keep the supply chain fluid.

We Are Watching the Truck Market

Three readings landed on August 4 and they all point the same direction. The Logistics Managers Index put transportation capacity at 28.4 in July, a decline of 2.4 points from June that ties the second fastest contraction in the roughly ten year history of the index and returns the measure to its lowest level in six years. Capacity has now contracted for eight consecutive months. Transportation utilization read 65 and transportation prices 86.9, both down from June but still firmly expansionary, and the overall index came in at 68.9 against June 71.1.

The United States Bank Freight Payment Index told the same story from the shipper side. National shipment volumes fell 1.1% from the first quarter and 2.8% from a year earlier, while spending rose 6.4% sequentially and 28.1% year over year. DAT reported second quarter spot rates averaging $3.02 per mile against contract rates of $3.06, a gap of four cents where it stood at .39 cents a year earlier. Fuel was not the driver, and the national average diesel price came off an April peak above $5.64 per gallon to $4.67 late in the quarter.

Bob Costello of the American Trucking Associations attributed the move to capacity tightening after several years of excess supply rather than to demand recovery, noting that rates are rising even though the freight market remains relatively soft. The report also credits enforcement, citing English language proficiency requirements, revocations of non-domiciled commercial driver licenses, oversight of driver training schools and a crackdown on cabotage by Mexican B-1 visa holders as factors reducing available capacity. Spot leads contract into the next bid cycle, which means the harder market for truck shippers is still in front of them rather than behind them.

We are watching the Black Sea 

Global grain markets faced renewed uncertainty last week as intensified attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea port infrastructure disrupted one of the world’s major agricultural export routes. Last week, Ukrainian officials reported that the country was working to redirect additional grain exports through rail, road, and Danube River routes as pressure on its seaports continued.

The potential impact is significant. Ukrainian officials estimate that alternative transportation routes can currently accommodate only about 50–55% of the volumes normally handled through the affected Black Sea ports. If the disruption is not resolved, just over 30 million metric tons of grain and oilseeds could fail to reach international markets.

Ukraine remains an important supplier to global agricultural markets, particularly for wheat, corn, and oilseeds. Any prolonged reduction in its export capacity could alter global commodity flows as international buyers look to other producing regions to meet demand.

That makes the situation particularly relevant for Canada and the United States as the 2026 harvest season approaches. Both countries are major agricultural exporters with extensive rail networks connecting producing regions with domestic and export markets. Canada is also entering the season with a strong export outlook, with current forecasts calling for approximately 50.5 million tonnes of grain and oilseed exports in the 2026–27 crop year.

For the rail industry, the question is whether disruption overseas ultimately translates into additional North American export demand. If purchasing patterns shift toward U.S. or Canadian suppliers, higher volumes could affect grain elevator activity, covered-hopper utilization, railcar availability, and the inspections, maintenance, cleaning, storage, and field support required to keep equipment moving efficiently.

PFL is watching how conditions in the Black Sea develop and whether global grain purchasing patterns begin to shift in response. It is still too early to determine the impact on North American volumes, but with harvest approaching and more than 30 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds potentially at risk of reaching global markets, the situation could become increasingly important for agricultural shippers and the rail industry in the weeks ahead.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases two PMI reports each month—one covering manufacturing and the other covering services. These reports are based on surveys of supply managers across the country and measure changes in business activity. A reading above 50% indicates expansion, while a reading below 50% signals contraction, with the pace of change increasing as the index moves farther from 50.

The Manufacturing PMI registered 55.6% in July 2026, up from 53.3% in June and marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. The reading was the strongest since May 2022, reflecting broad-based gains in production, new orders, and factory activity. While manufacturing momentum strengthened significantly, survey respondents continued to cite higher input costs and tariff-related price pressures as ongoing challenges. 

The Services PMI registered 53.1% in July 2026, down from 54.0% in June, but remained firmly in expansion territory for the 25th consecutive month. Business activity and new orders continued to grow, though at a slower pace than in June, reflecting continued resilience in the service sector despite moderating growth. Employment remained in expansion, while easing price pressures suggested some improvement in operating cost inflation. Overall, the report indicates that the U.S. services sector continues to expand.

U.S. Unemployment

On August 7th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy lost a preliminary 23,000 net nonfarm payroll jobs in July 2026, marking the first monthly decline in employment since February and falling short of market expectations. The BLS also revised employment figures for the prior two months downward, subtracting a combined 103,000 jobs from May and June totals. May was revised down to 63,000 new jobs, while June was revised down to 20,000.

According to the BLS, total nonfarm payroll employment has increased by approximately 60,000 jobs over the last three months (May through July 2026). The official unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% in July from 4.2% in June, although the decline was largely attributable to a drop in labor force participation rather than stronger hiring, suggesting labor market conditions weakened during the month. The good news is that government jobs continue to decline while manufacturing and private sector jobs continue to increase.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppercars located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tank located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tank located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 50, 28.3K 117J Tank located off of BNSF in Kansas/Oklahoma. For use in Fuel Oil service. Period: 6 Months.
• 100, 28.3K 117J Tank located off of CN in Canada. For use in Diesel service. Period: 1 year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 8-10-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending July 25, 2026 came in at 197,000, versus the adjusted number of 188,000 people from the week prior, up 9,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,782,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,789,000 people from the week prior, down 7,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 276.97 points (0.53%), closing out the week at 52,485.03, up 537.78 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 52.09 points (0.70%), and closed out the week at 7,489.72, up 77.74 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 251.68 points (1.00%), and closed out the week at 25,373.85, up 398.03 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 52,988 this morning, up 353 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week, but lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $1.08 per barrel (1.3%), to close at $84.67 on Friday of last week, but down $4.64 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $1.09 per barrel (1.2%), to close at $90.12, but down $6.66 per barrel week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for September delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$14.30 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$65.63 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.2 million barrels week-over-week. At 404.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 7% below the five-year average for this time of year. 

Total motor gasoline inventories slightly increased week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 9% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 34% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 72.2 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 1.4 cents per gallon week-over-week, but up 3.1 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels week-over-week  during the week ending July 24, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day during the week ending July 24, 2026, a decrease of 124,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day, 6.9% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 659,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 98,000 barrels per day  during the week ending July 24, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.467 million barrels per day during the week ending July 24, 2026, an increase of 114,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.451 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.3 million barrels per day, during the week ending July 24, 2026, which was 271,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $79.70, down $4.97 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending July 29, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+3.31%) in week 31, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending July 29, 2026 were 334,577, up (+3.27%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 355,620, up (+3.35%) year over year. 9 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-1.33%). The largest increase was Metallic Ores and Metals (+12.46%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+4.43%), with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-0.09%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+19.88%). NS’s total volumes were up (+2.63%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+9.19%), while the largest decrease came from Farm Products (-7.40%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+2.77%), with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+13.21%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-6.72%). UP’s total volumes were up (+4.07%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+19.78%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-6.72%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+1.67%), with the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+20.01%), while the largest decrease came from Nonmetallic Minerals (-23.42%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+3.18%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+57.40%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-19.44%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was up by +16 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was up by +1 rig week-over-week, and up by +48 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 588 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by +15 rigs week-over-week and up by +42 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 219 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +90 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,612 from 29,656 which was a decrease of -44 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +1.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +7.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mixed. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -4.0% week-over-week. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +8.0% week over week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 307.692 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since March 1983. Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 1.05 million barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending July 24, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Are Watching Canadian Crude by Rail

The Canadian Energy regulator reported on July 22, 2026, that 87,977 barrels were exported during the month of May 2026, up from 84,534 barrels in April of 2026, an increase of 3,443 barrels per day month-over-month. Its largest reading since November of 2024 where 94,188 barrels per day were exported to the United States.

Crude by rail will always be necessary out of Canada for stranded oil not connected by pipelines. Raw bitumen, which is shipped as a non-haz product and is not able to flow in pipelines, is competitive with pipeline tolls and is a growing market to keep an eye on. In a normal predictable market we really need to see basis WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average) blowout to -18 per barrel for sustained periods of time to make economic sense. Current rail rates from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast have averaged roughly $17 per barrel, making rail competitive whenever WCS-WTI spreads exceed $18 per barrel, including quality adjustments.

This is not a fleet that switches overnight: car owners and lessors want five-year commitments, the Class Ones expect similar term, and new 117J cars carry one to two year build times.

Folks, what we are in now is not a normal and predictable market.  Some would say nothing has been normal or predictable since COVID.  With pipelines out of Alberta full or nearly full one consideration is the outright price of oil itself, with the conflict in Iran not seeming to go away anytime soon, some may step up, take on some cars to get barrels to market quickly.  Mistreamers won’t do that, however, we may see the producer step up.  For the producer it is all about what their netback is, not how much it costs to get there.  The producer can pay more than $18 per barrel right now if that is their only outlet and pipelines are full.  The risk reward ratio may make sense with elevated prices but the old saying – what goes up must come down it is just a matter of when.  We always have our eyes on this one please stay tuned to PFL or call the desk to trouble shoot.

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

Canadian oil sands producer and refiner Cenovus chief executive Jon McKenzie told analysts on the company’s second quarter call on Wednesday of last week that trilateral negotiations among Alberta, Ottawa and the Oil Sands Alliance on a deal to grow production and export capacity while reducing emissions are advancing. He also said the underlying memorandum still carries an “uncompetitive carbon tax that uniquely burdens Canadian industry,” while allowing that it creates a framework for governments and industry to work together on production growth, emissions reduction and expanded market access.

The trilateral deal extends the federal and Alberta memorandum that set out the conditions for a West Coast pipeline, which include new industrial carbon taxes and construction of the Pathways carbon capture project. The Oil Sands Alliance signed its own memorandum with both governments in early July. Ottawa’s has an October 1st deadline to designate the pipeline a project of national interest is still in the cards – Alberta’s submission carried no shipper commitments.

The carbon tax is not the only constraint on oil sands capital. Under the OSFI B-15 guideline, federally regulated banks and insurers must measure and report the emissions financed through their loan books. The first Climate Risk Returns cycle, covering Canada’s six systemically important banks and four internationally active insurance groups, found approximately 360 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in financed emissions, 301 million at the banks and 58.2 million at the insurers, against a national inventory of roughly 694 million tonnes. Setting aside sovereign holdings, transition vulnerable sectors accounted for about half of the banks’ financed emissions, led by agriculture, transportation and fossil fuels. The banks through regulation in Canada are married to Canada’s version of what we use to call at PFL “The Green New Deal”.

Nobody in Ottawa has instructed a bank not to lend to an oil sands producer. The regime does not work that way. It requires the lender to carry the borrower’s emissions on its own regulatory return, which makes the credit expensive to hold whatever the project economics look like. The Big Five left the Net-Zero Banking Alliance in January 2025 and kept the reporting machinery running, because the reporting is mandatory. Scope 3 disclosure has been deferred to fiscal 2028 and off-balance-sheet capital markets emissions to fiscal 2029, so the obligation grows from here.

In our opinion, a framework is not a final investment decision. Ottawa gets to announce a pipeline while keeping both the levy and the disclosure regime that make it harder to finance and calls the result a partnership.  We continue to watch this one folks – please call PFL today to trouble shoot.

We Are Watching Renewables

Ethanol D6 and biomass-based diesel D4 credits set all-time highs of $2.5025 and $2.565 on July 7th and have given back roughly 40 cents apiece since. D6 closed Friday of last week at $2.11 and D4 at $2.16, down 28 cents and 27 cents week-over-week. The selloff ran three straight sessions. D6 lost 4 cents Monday of last week, 9.5 cents Tuesday and 15.5 cents Wednesday, taking both credits to 10-week lows, the weakest since May 21. Thursday brought a 3 cent bounce and Friday gave 2 cents of it back. Ethanol at Argo finished the week at $1.96 per gallon, up 3 cents, and California LCFS credits closed at $80 per tonne, up $5.50.

Two things drove the selloff. Market participants pointed to speculation that EPA will side with refiners seeking exemption from the Renewable Fuel Standard, and a court filing confirmed the agency must rule on two small refinery exemption petitions for the 2024 compliance year, covering HF Sinclair’s Parco refinery in Wyoming and Alon’s Krotz Springs facility in Louisiana, no later than August 3. HF Sinclair has sued EPA over the delay with the 2025 compliance deadline set for September 1st, and Reuters reported the agency is weighing an extension of that deadline. The soybean oil to heating oil spread also collapsed, falling below $1 for the first time since early April, and credit prices generally follow it.

The obligated parties see it differently. Valero’s senior vice president of renewable operations said on the company’s second quarter call that 2026 will be a low production year against the obligation, drawing down the credit bank and keeping D4 structurally elevated, with the bank potentially exhausted between year end and the middle of 2027. Chairman Lane Riggs noted the market has little precedent for how the standard would function if credits were no longer available. CVR Energy reported $216 million of compliance costs in the second quarter, a net RIN expense of $11.16 per barrel, and slowed its purchases on the view that EPA will eventually be forced to intervene. CoBank put numbers on the gap: the 2026 and 2027 obligations jump 67% and 70% above the 2025 total of 5.42 billion gallons, which would require biomass-based diesel capacity use to reach 90% this year and 95% next, against nearly 60% in 2025.

U.S. ethanol production reached 1.133 million barrels per day in the week ended July 24, the second highest rate on record and a 28-week high, running 3.4% above the same week last year. Inventories built for a third consecutive week to 24.726 million barrels. Rule 11 railcar ethanol at Chicago last changed hands near $1.94 per gallon, four cents higher on the week, while FOB railcar Nebraska traded $1.76 on the Union Pacific line and as much as $1.80 on the BNSF line. ADM said last Thursday it will expand oilseed crush capacity at four plants by roughly 700,000 tonnes per year, including Spiritwood, North Dakota, which feeds Marathon’s 184 million gallon per year renewable diesel plant at Dickinson.

A mandate rising 67% has to be met with physical gallons moving to blend points, and the capacity to make them is not built yet. That is a tank car and covered hopper problem.

We Are Watching the Lease Market

GATX reported second quarter results on Thursday of last week showing the renewal lease rate change on its Lease Price Index at positive 16.8%, down from 22.3% in the first quarter and 24.2% in the second quarter of 2025. The average renewal term on cars in the index fell to 54 months from 60 months a year ago, even as the renewal success rate climbed to 82.6% from 79.1% in the prior quarter. Rail North America finished the quarter with fleet utilization at 98.0% across roughly 201,800 cars excluding boxcars, and segment profit rose to $118.5 million from $96.6 million a year earlier.

Trinity reported the same day. Orders of 1,560 cars against 1,570 deliveries put book-to-bill at roughly 1.0, while backlog closed at 11,340 units and $1.59 billion, down 19.8% in units and 19.1% in dollars from a year earlier. Earnings of $1.25 per share leaned on a $132 million non-cash pre-tax gain from the Napier Park partnership transaction. Rail Products operating profit fell 61.8% on lower deliveries and a production interruption at the Longview, Texas plant, where a two-facility consolidation runs into early 2027. Lease fleet utilization was 97.3%, renewal success improved to 75%, and the future lease rate differential was positive 3.5%. Jean Savage told analysts the market is turning.

Lessees are renewing more often than they were three months ago but signing shorter deals, and the rate escalation that held above 20% for two years has broken. GATX said the index was held down by an outsized quarter of sand car renewals at lower rates, the same in-basin sand substitution we covered last week. Trinity holds just under half the industry backlog, so book-to-bill near 1.0 at that share sets a floor. It does not signal a recovery.

Section 232 tariffs on imported tank cars remain unresolved. GATX said it is contractually responsible for those tariffs, has seen no material impact to date, and described the situation as fluid. It seems to us at PFL that the shortening renewal term matters more than the headline rate. Fifty-four months is still a long commitment, but it is half a year shorter than it was, and lessees who expect softer rates ahead do not lock in five years.

We Continue to Watch the Surface Transportation Board

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed their second and final supplemental response on July 27th, meeting the deadline the Surface Transportation Board set on May 28th when it accepted the revised application and placed the proceeding, including the environmental review, in abeyance. The filing completes the applicants’ response and clears the way for the Board to lift the abeyance and start the formal evaluation clock on the $85 billion transaction.

Four commitments came with it. Committed gateway pricing roughly doubles the number of eligible shipments and extends to bulk unit train shippers, which the applicants describe as the functional equivalent of thousands of haulage agreements in a single enforceable commitment. The railroads also pledged to preserve Class I options for shippers dropping from three carriers to two, not only from two to one, wherever they can legally grant access to another railroad. Service-level protections would let customers seek temporary alternate rail service in the event of a service decline, and a new rate relief process adds Board oversight. An earlier filing on July 7th addressed the Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis, Kansas City Terminal Railway and TTX.

Union Pacific and CN signed a binding memorandum of understanding on July 22nd. CN takes Norfolk Southern’s ownership interests in the Kansas City Terminal Railway and the Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis, gains overhead rights between Tuscola and East St. Louis, Illinois, wins the right to serve customers between St. Louis and Kansas City including use of Union Pacific’s Neff Yard, and picks up operating rights between Memphis and the Eagle Pass gateway to Mexico. Union Pacific gains rights over CN’s former Elgin, Joliet and Eastern route around Chicago. In exchange, CN agreed not to oppose the merger, removing one of the four Class I objectors.

BNSF was not persuaded. In a July 24 customer letter, chief marketing officer Tom Williams argued that the CN agreements demonstrate new routes and market access can be created through commercial partnerships, which cuts against more than a year of Union Pacific’s case that only a merger could deliver them. BNSF’s position is that the combined railroad would still control roughly half the U.S. freight rail market and leave some customers with fewer competitive options. Applicants continue to target mid-2027 for closing.

The Board has not said when it will rule on the supplement. Committed gateway pricing and the three-to-two access commitment are the provisions to track through the conditions phase, since they carry most of the value to a private car owner.

We Are Watching Demurrage

RailPulse said on Wednesday of last week that beginning October 1st, railcar location and time data submitted by subscribers and generated through its platform will serve as the definitive record for demurrage and storage charge dispute resolution, subject to limited exceptions, between participating subscribers and RailPulse member railroads. These disputes have historically turned on competing and occasionally conflicting records of when a car arrived and how long it sat, and the framework replaces that with a single shared dataset.

Arrival, departure and dwell events come from certified telemetry devices on subscriber-equipped cars. Billing continues under each railroad’s existing process, so the invoice does not change, only the record behind it. Mike McClellan, the RailPulse founder who is also senior vice president and chief strategy officer at Norfolk Southern, described standardized data that shippers and railroads agree on as resolving a long-standing friction point. Nucor chief mechanical officer Steve Skeels noted that these disputes absorb significant time and attention before the underlying issue is even addressed.

A fleet carrying certified telemetry argues from its own record after October 1st, and a fleet without it argues with the railroad’s. That makes it an equipment decision with a deadline on it. The framework applies only among participating subscribers and member railroads, so the practical value to any given fleet depends on which railroads it interchanges with.

PFL works with fleet operators weighing telematics against cycle-time and dwell exposure. It seems to us at PFL that owners with cars in high-dwell service should price the devices against a couple of years of contested demurrage before they look at the hardware cost!

We Are Watching Barstow

A coalition of environmental groups sued on July 1 to send BNSF’s Barstow International Gateway back to the start of environmental review, two weeks after the project won unanimous support from the Barstow City Council in June and after it had already cleared a two-year California review. The $4 billion, 4,500-acre intermodal terminal, block-swap yard and container transload facility is now tied up in litigation.

International containers arriving at Los Angeles and Long Beach would load directly onto well cars at the ports and move 130 miles by rail to Barstow, where they would be transloaded into domestic containers at warehouses on site and railed to inland destinations. The terminal would handle just over 2 million inbound containers by rail per year in 2028, each one eliminating a truck move. At present those boxes are trucked roughly 60 miles to the Inland Empire, transloaded, then trucked again to BNSF terminals at San Bernardino and Hobart.

Moving freight by rail produces up to 75% fewer greenhouse gas emissions than moving it by truck. The site would use zero-emission rail-mounted gantry cranes, hybrid rubber-tired gantry cranes, zero-emission forklifts and hostlers, electric plug-ins for refrigeration units and a 21-megawatt solar farm, with Tier 4 locomotives dedicated to the port shuttles and agreements already in place with the Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District and the California Air Resources Board. Plaintiffs want the main line electrified instead, which is not a product anyone can currently buy: battery-electric and hydrogen fuel cell line-haul locomotives remain prototypes, and overhead catenary would require a high-traction, high-horsepower locomotive that has not been developed.

The project is projected to create 3,627 direct jobs in 2028 in a town where 23% of residents live below the poverty line. A project that cleared state review, won unanimous local approval and arrived with this mitigation package can still lose years to litigation, and anyone modeling a large terminal, transload or storage facility should price that in. We will be keeping our eye on this one. 

We Are Watching the CN

CN said Friday of last week that it is supporting more than 300 shipper development projects across its North American network while investing about C$2.8 billion in capital improvements during 2026. The railway brought more than 70 customer projects into service in 2025, representing over C$2 billion in customer investment, and has put 30 shipper-led projects into service so far in 2026 with another 70 expected through the end of the year and into early 2027.

Sandra Ellis, CN’s vice president of bulk, industrial and business development, tied the pipeline of projects to customer confidence in network capacity, pointing to investment in the capacity, infrastructure and operating model needed to support new business while maintaining fluidity. Named capital projects include a new Zanardi Rapids Bridge at the Port of Prince Rupert and a double-track project at Glen Valley, British Columbia, both on the western corridor.

Growth in rail traffic extends well beyond the movement of freight. Every new customer, facility and railcar added to the network increases the need for the services that keep equipment operating safely and efficiently throughout its lifecycle. Railcar inspections, maintenance, cleaning, repairs, qualifications, storage and field support all play an essential role in ensuring rail assets remain safe, compliant and available to meet growing customer demand.

PFL works with shippers and fleet operators standing up new facilities, where the car requirement and the service plan tend to get settled later than they should. It seems to us at PFL that 300 projects entering service across roughly eighteen months is worth planning against now, well ahead of when the cars are needed.

We Are Always Watching Safety

As North America’s rail network continues to grow and operations become more complex, the industry’s commitment to safety has never been more important. Whether it’s a Class I railroad, a short line, an industrial facility, or a customer siding, today’s operations are busier than ever. More trains, more switching, and more people working around rail equipment mean every movement must be carefully planned and executed.

One of the biggest trends shaping the industry is the increasing use of technology to support safe operations. Automated inspection systems, real-time monitoring, enhanced communications, and advanced detection technologies are giving crews better visibility into potential hazards and helping them make informed decisions in the field. These tools don’t replace experience, they complement it by providing another layer of awareness in dynamic operating environments.

Even with these advances, technology is only part of the solution. The foundation of every safe rail operation remains experienced people, thorough training, clear communication, disciplined operating procedures, and a strong safety culture. Every inspection completed, every repair verified, and every pre-job briefing contributes to preventing incidents before they occur.

Here at PFL, that philosophy guides every project we undertake. Our crews support customers across North America with railcar inspections, mobile repairs, valve services, cleaning, flaring, maintenance, and field support. Whether we’re working in an active rail yard, refinery, petrochemical complex, transload facility, or on a short line, every job begins with proper planning, hazard identification, equipment verification, and clear communication. We believe there is no substitute for doing the job safely the first time.

Safety also extends beyond protecting people, it protects our customers’ operations. Well-maintained railcars, properly executed repairs, and disciplined field practices help reduce downtime, improve reliability, and keep freight moving efficiently throughout the supply chain. A strong safety culture benefits everyone, from railroad employees and contractors to shippers and the communities we serve.

As the industry continues to invest in new technologies and best practices, the goal remains the same: reduce risk while improving operational reliability. Innovation will continue to shape the future of rail safety, but experienced people, disciplined execution, and a commitment to continuous improvement will always be at its core.

PFL is watching how safety continues to evolve across the North American rail industry. By combining experienced field crews with proven operating practices and a commitment to continuous improvement, we remain focused on helping our customers operate safely, reliably, and efficiently every day. 

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Spending

In June 2026, total consumer spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.4% from May 2026, continuing a moderate pace of growth in household demand. This follows a 0.3% increase in May 2026 and no change in April 2026. Year-over-year inflation-adjusted total spending remained positive, reflecting continued resilience in consumer demand, despite moderating inflation.

Inflation-adjusted spending on goods and services both increased in June. Services spending continued to outpace goods spending, extending the ongoing strength in service-sector consumption, while goods spending was supported by broad-based gains outside of energy-related purchases.

Consumer Confidence

The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased from 49.5 in June to 55.2 in July.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased from 92.2 in June to 90.8 in July.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppercars located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tank located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tank located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 50, 28.3K 117J Tank located off of BNSF in Kansas/Oklahoma. For use in Fuel Oil service. Period: 6 Months.
• 100, 28.3K 117J Tank located off of CN in Canada. For use in Diesel service. Period: 1 year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 8-3-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending July 18, 2026 came in at 187,000, versus the adjusted number of 209,000 people from the week prior, down 22,000 people week over week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,796,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,798,000 people from the week prior, down 2,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed mixed on Friday of last week, but lower week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 235.60 points (0.46%), closing out the week at 51,947.25, down -198.96 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 3.68 points (0.05%), and closed out the week at 7,411.98, down -45.71 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -161.87 points (-0.64%), and closed out the week at 24,975.82, down -544.42 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 52,674 this morning, up 550 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week, but higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$2.88 per barrel (-3.12%), to close at $89.31 on Friday of last week, but up $6.82 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -$3.91 per barrel (-3.88%), to close at $96.78, but up $8.68 per barrel week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for September delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$13.90 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$75.41 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2 million barrels week-over-week. At 411.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Cushing fell to 19.4 million barrels, below the roughly 20 million barrels operators treat as minimum working inventory. Below tank bottoms the hub stops behaving like a storage buffer and starts behaving like a bottleneck, and every differential priced off Cushing gets noisier.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 800,000 barrels week-over-week and are 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels week-over-week and are 10% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 6.3 million barrels week-over-week and are 34% above the five-year average for this time of year..

Propane prices closed at 73.6 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 4.3 cents per gallon week-over-week, and up 3.3 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.6 million barrels week-over-week  during the week ending July 17, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 117,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day, 11.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 494,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 173,000 barrels per day  during the week ending July 17, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.353 million barrels per day during the week ending July 17, 2026, a decrease of 368,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.586 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day, during the week ending July 17, 2026  which was 58,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $82.21, down $7.10 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending July 22, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+4.49%) in week 30, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending July 22, 2026 were 325,576, up (+1.48%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 359,422, up (+7.37%) year over year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-4.91%). The largest increase was Other (+12.45%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+6.85%), with the largest decrease coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (-7.02%), while the largest increase came from Other (+20.64%). NS’s total volumes were up (+3.21%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+16.60%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-11.09%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+5.55%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+11.52%), while the largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-8.55%). UP’s total volumes were up (+3.87%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+31.77%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-8.61%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-0.62%), with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+30.49%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-14.46%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+6.12%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+41.96%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-15.08%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was up by +5 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was down by -1 rig week-over-week, but up by +45 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 587 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by +6 rigs week-over-week and up by +22 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 204 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +67 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 311.447 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since March 1983. Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 1.04 million barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending July 17, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Are Watching the Bakken

North Dakota crude sold at a $2.56 per barrel premium to WTI in May. Justin Kringstad of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority told the state’s monthly briefing on 22 July that he had to go back to 1986 to find a comparable premium, and called it an anomaly he does not expect to hold. The state’s average realized price was $100.64, some 70.6% above the price assumption in its own revenue forecast, worth an estimated $29mn in additional oil tax receipts for the month.

Production was 1.125 million barrels per day in May, a twelve-month low, with only 24 active rigs. A basin producing less oil and still commanding a premium to the benchmark is telling you the barrels are being pulled to market rather than pushed into it. Cushing tank bottoms is the same signal from the other end of the pipe.

Enbridge reduced apportionment on the Mainline for a second consecutive month for August flow as oil sands turnaround season cut the barrels chasing southbound space. That is a Canadian signal, not a Bakken one, and the two basins are not competing for the same cars.

We Are Watching Trans Mountain

Trans Mountain’s binding open season for firm service on the 890,000 barrel per day system ran from 7 April to 2 June. The company expects the result to leave 80% to 90% of the system under contract, against a committed base of roughly 707,500 barrels per day going in. The results and a long-term tolling arrangement have gone to the Canada Energy Regulator for approval as a package.

At the top of that range the system would hold about 801,000 barrels per day under contract, leaving just under 90,000 barrels per day of uncommitted space on the only tidewater route out of Alberta. Anyone without a contract is being pushed toward spot pipeline capacity that is shrinking by design. 

There is a second open season for Trans Mountain going on right now, this one for expansion capacity, opened 13 July and closes 10 August. The drag reducing agent project adds 90,000 barrels per day and is expected to be complete early 2027. The larger Mainline Optimization Project has been cut to 210,000 barrels per day from as much as 270,000 and pulled forward to year end 2028. 

We Are Watching Left Wing Carney

Canada’s premiers met in Charlottetown P.EI. last week.from July 21-23, with Prime Minister Mark Carney joining after Donald Trump signed orders raising levies on a range of Canadian goods by 50%. Carney said he would do whatever it takes to protect Canada but responding before the tariffs take effect on 19 August could be counterproductive. The closing communique asked Ottawa for a clear and timely consultation process, which is the polite way of saying the premiers have not been shown a plan.

Cement, agricultural products and alcohol are covered by the new levies. Energy and potash are exempt, which is the whole argument in one line: the U.S. carved out the two commodities it cannot readily replace and taxed the ones it can. Doug Ford, Ontario’s premier, said that Canada could dismantle the U.S. if it wanted. This was a comment only for good television. Alberta and Saskatchewan premiers are quiet – Alberta sits on the world’s fourth largest oil deposit and sells essentially all of it to one customer, over infrastructure that customer’s refiners have spent forty years configuring to receive.  Saskatchewan on the other hand sits on all the potash and wants it sold.

Eighteen months of tariff escalation have produced no new sanctioned export egress. Embridge’s Mainline ran at 95.2% utilization in 2025 and has been apportioned in most months since the Trans Mountain expansion started up, and the only near-term capacity coming to either system is drag reducing agent injection. Wab Kinew Manitoba’s premier said Manitoba is willing to entertain an Alberta to Ontario crude oil pipeline. Entertaining is not permitting, and permitting is not building.

In our opinion, a country that spends eighteen months talking about leverage while its only export route runs full and apportioned does not have leverage. It has a customer! Rail is the one egress option in Canada that can be added in quarters rather than decades, and it is the option to our knowledge nobody in Charlottetown mentioned.  We continue to watch this one.

We Are Watching Fuel Surcharges

Union Pacific posted record second quarter freight revenue of $6.518bn, up 12%. Fuel expense rose 63% on a 60% increase in average fuel price and cost the railroad roughly 120 basis points of operating ratio. Jennifer Hamann told analysts recent purchases have been above $4 per gallon. Fuel surcharge revenue contributed about $460mn and 750 basis points of the freight revenue growth.

Strip the surcharge out and freight revenue grew 4%, so the headline is a fuel pass-through rather than a demand story. The same arithmetic is running through every carrier’s income statement in both modes. CN reported Friday of last week with revenue ton miles up 5% on grain and energy products and raised its guidance for the year. Jim Vena said he would rather see lower fuel prices despite the surcharge revenue, which is the correct answer.

Where it gets interesting is the spread. Union Pacific improved fuel consumption 1% in the quarter to 1.051 gallons per thousand gross ton miles. A railroad recovering fuel through a published surcharge on that consumption profile is in a structurally different position from a fleet buying retail diesel at $5.13 with a driver shortage layered on top. In our opinion, that spread is the best argument rail has in this market, and it is going to show up in the 2027 bid season.

We Are Watching Trucking

U.S. on-highway diesel averaged $5.134 per gallon in the week ending July 20th, up 33.8 cents on the week and 55.6 cents over two weeks. A year earlier, the same number was $3.812, so fleets are carrying a 34.7% increase in their single largest variable cost. The spike that followed the opening of the Iran war in March never fully unwound, and the July blockade has taken the price back toward the highs.

The supply side is worse than the cost side. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration rule on non-domiciled commercial licences took effect 16 March and limits eligibility to holders of H-2A, H-2B and E-2 status. The agency’s own estimate is that 97% of roughly 200,000 non-domiciled licence holders cannot meet the new standard. Washington is enforcing it with money. The Department of Transportation withheld $73.5mn in highway funds from New York on 16 April over licences the state declined to revoke, roughly 4% of its funding under two federal programs. New York and California are the only two states to have actually lost funding. The rest fell into line.

English language proficiency enforcement runs alongside it. Drivers who fail the roadside assessment are placed out of service, and the American Trucking Associations puts the run rate at roughly 2,000 drivers a month. J.B. Hunt has told the market that the two rules together could remove between 214,000 and 437,000 drivers from the workforce over two to three years. Neither measure is reversible by memo. The out-of-service criterion was written into the Consolidated Appropriations Act in February and printed in the April edition of the national inspection criteria.

C.H. Robinson raised its 2026 dry van cost per mile forecast to 34% above last year, with refrigerated at 35%. Spot rates are trading above contract rates for the first time since 2021, which is the clearest signal this market gives that route guides have stopped holding. Tender rejections are at multi-year highs, and the carriers that left after 2022 have not come back.

The freight is already moving. Union Pacific’s domestic intermodal carloads rose 19% in the second quarter against 2% total carload growth, and CSX booked 9% intermodal growth on 6% total volume. ACT Research expects 15.6 million intermodal loads in 2026, ahead of the 2018 record of 15.3 million.

In our opinion, this is not a seasonal wobble. When the marginal truck is both more expensive and harder to find, lanes that were marginal for rail on transit time alone start clearing on landed cost, and converted lanes tend to stay converted. PFL is having this conversation with shippers now. The fleet planning needs to happen before the bid season, not during it.

We Are Watching Frac Sand

Magnolia Oil & Gas agreed on 20 July to buy WildFire Energy from Warburg Pincus and Kayne Anderson for approximately $4.06bn including debt. The detail that matters to our  readers is buried in the asset list. Included in the transaction is a sand mine that already supplies roughly 80% of Magnolia’s annual sand consumption, all of WildFire’s requirements, and third-party volumes on top. The deal adds about 810,000 net acres in Giddings and takes the pro forma position past 1.25 million net acres across the Austin Chalk, Eagle Ford and Woodbine.

A producer that owns its own in-basin mine does not buy sand carloads. The long-haul Northern White business that filled covered hoppers out of Wisconsin and Minnesota was hollowed out by in-basin sand years ago, and a transaction like this converts that displacement from a commercial decision into a structural one. Magnolia is not renting capacity from a supplier who might one day price rail back into the equation. It owns the pit.

The synergy math says the same thing out loud. Magnolia expects more than $100mn in annual savings with a net present value of roughly $700mn, and the named sources include shared facilities and infrastructure, streamlined field operations and, explicitly, supply chain and logistics pricing. More than 500 miles of gas gathering pipeline came with the assets as well. Every line item on that list is a transport cost coming down.

Nor is this a drilling boom. Magnolia has committed to holding capital spending at 55% of annual adjusted EBITDAX for what it calls moderate production growth, and lifted its standalone 2026 production guidance only to 6% from 5%. The acquired assets run at roughly 53,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on a 29% base oil decline, sit next to Gulf Coast markets and are served by pipe. There is no crude by rail in the Eagle Ford and there is not going to be.

In our opinion, the consolidation wave in U.S. shale keeps being sold to the freight market as a demand story and it is nothing of the sort. Bigger, better capitalized operators sitting on contiguous acreage buy fewer miles of everything. Covered hopper owners should read this deal as a warning rather than a green light, and anyone still waiting for a shale recovery to soak up an idle sand fleet  (what’s left of it) is going to keep waiting.

We Are Watching the Surface Transportation Board

Canadian National and Union Pacific signed two memorandums of understanding on July 22nd. The first is contingent on Surface Transportation Board approval of the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger and commits CN to withdraw its opposition. In exchange, CN gets access to shipper facilities where the merger would cut Class I options from three to two or from two to one. CN also takes overhead rights between Tuscola and East St. Louis in Illinois and between St. Louis and Kansas City in Missouri, usage of Union Pacific’s Neff Yard in Kansas City, and Norfolk Southern’s ownership interests in the Kansas City Terminal Railway and the Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis.

The second memorandum is not tied to the merger at all. Union Pacific gets expanded rights over CN’s Elgin, Joliet and Eastern corridor around Chicago, and CN gets new rights over Union Pacific between Memphis and Eagle Pass, Texas. Tracy Robinson called it a natural extension of CN’s north-south franchise. Jim Vena was blunter, saying he wanted the quickest way around Chicago. For anyone routing freight between Canada and Mexico, this is the more consequential of the two documents.

The Board is not softening. It ordered Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern on 22 July to redesignate their employee impact exhibits as public by 27 July, rejecting the argument that the data was too commercially sensitive to release. Those exhibits set out how many craft and management positions would be abolished, created or transferred. The Board noted comparable information has been public in past merger cases. Labor asked for it and got it.

Losing CN removes one obstacle and may give Union Pacific a path to arguing that competitive concerns can be addressed through targeted access rather than opposition. It does not remove CPKC, BNSF, agricultural and commodity shippers, or the unions. The combination would create a roughly 55,000 mile network handling about half of U.S. rail freight, and it is the first major Class I merger tested against the 2001 rules requiring applicants to enhance competition rather than merely preserve it. The supplemental filing deadline is 27 July. In our opinion CN did very well here. Kansas City and a Mexico route, in exchange for dropping a comment letter it was probably never going to win with, is a good trade!

We are watching Class 1 Industrial Headcount

Class I railroads employed 115,013 workers in the United States in June 2026, a -0.01% decrease from May 2026’s count of 115,030, and a -3.32% year-over-year decrease from June 2025’s total of 118,965, according to Surface Transportation Board data.

Two of the six employment categories posted month-over-month increases between May and June 2026. These were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, which increased 0.49% to 7,992 workers, and Professional and Administrative, which increased 1.67% to 8,872 workers.

The categories that posted month-over-month decreases were Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -0.53% to 28,641 workers; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -0.36% to 15,888 workers; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -0.39% to 4,627 workers; and Transportation (train and engine), down -0.06% to 48,993 workers.

No employment categories posted a year-over-year gain in June 2026.

Categories that registered year-over-year decreases in June 2026 were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, down -0.11%; Professional and Administrative, down -4.62%; Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -1.50%; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -6.62%; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -6.69%; and Transportation (train and engine), down -3.20%

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppercars located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tank located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tank located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 12, 21.5K-25K DOT 111 Tanks located off of Various Class 1s in Michigan. For use in Diesel, Asphalt, Crude service. Coiled and Insulated.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Moving. Last used in styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in giesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 7-27-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending July 11, 2026 came in at 208,000, versus the adjusted number of 216,000 people from the week prior, down 8,000 people week over week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,805,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,821,000 people from the week prior, down 16,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -406.76 points (-0.77%), closing out the week at 52,146.21, down -490.88 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -76.08 points (-1.01%), and closed out the week at 7,457.69, down -117.57 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -361.70 points (-1.40%), and closed out the week at 25,520.24, down -761.37 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 52,512 this morning, up 137 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $3.54 per barrel (4.59%), to close at $82.49 on Friday of last week, and up $11.08 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $3.87 per barrel (4.48%), to close at $88.10, and up $12.09 per barrel week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for August delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$13.15 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$69.34 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week. At 409.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.6 million barrels week-over-week and are 11% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3 million barrels week-over-week and are 28% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 69.3 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 0.2 cents per gallon week-over-week, but down 3.8 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 13.3 million barrels week-over-week during the week ending July 10, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day during the week ending July 10, 2026, an increase of 60,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day, 12.2% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 354,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 93,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 10, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.721 million barrels per day during the week ending July 10, 2026, an increase of 459,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.915 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending July 10, 2026, which was 99,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $81.34, down 44 cents per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending July 15, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+2.89%) in week 29, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending July 15, 2026 were 323,225, up (+1.83%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 338,299, up (+3.93%) year over year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-7.11%). The largest increase was Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+8.72%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+2.38%), with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-13.46%), while the largest increase came from Other (+15.83%). NS’s total volumes were up (+3.16%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+15.68%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-13.94%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+5.07%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+15.63%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-6.17%). UP’s total volumes were up (+1.66%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+24.36%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-17.53%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-1.23%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+30.18%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-14.32%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+4.84%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+37.24%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-17.51%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was up by +26 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was up by +7 rigs week-over-week, and up by +44 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 588 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by +19 rigs week-over-week and up by +26 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 198 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +70 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

PFL Attended MARS Summer Meeting in Lake Geneva, WI

The 2026 MARS Summer Meeting once again showed why it continues to be a staple of the rail industry. The conference drew a huge turnout, and every networking event was well attended, especially the annual scholarship golf outing, where plenty of good conversations took place. Much of the discussion centered around the future of the DOT-117 fleet and upcoming regulatory requirements, as well as the remaining DOT-111 cars that still need to be qualified but cannot remain in hazardous service after 2029. The general consensus was that many owners are choosing to scrap those DOT-111 cars, as there are limited opportunities to repurpose them into other services. Between the informative sessions and the networking throughout the event, this year’s MARS meeting once again proved to be one of the industry’s most important annual gatherings.

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,839 from 29,746 which was an increase of +93 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were mixed. CN’s shipments were lower by -4.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +1.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were also mixed. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -11.0% week-over-week. The BNSF had the largest percentage increase and was up by +5% week over week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 316.489 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since April 1983. Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 989,000 barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending July 10, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Continue to Watch Hormuz

The June ceasefire is dead. President Trump declared the Iran deal over at last week’s NATO summit, and U.S. forces ran a second round of strikes after Iran fired on commercial vessels and again declared the strait closed. Tanker traffic through Hormuz has collapsed to a fraction of normal, shutting the waterway for the second time this year and choking off roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. Crude climbed on the escalation, with WTI back into the low $80s.

The war keeps a firm bid under North American crude and pulls barrels toward both coasts, with Asian import flows to the U.S. west coast disrupted and Canadian heavy finding firmer Pacific-basin bids as a Mideast substitute. No one is adding tank cars to chase a geopolitical spike, so what matters this cycle is whether the cars and commitments already in place are working, and right now most are. The Jones Act tanker waiver first issued in March has been extended again into the summer to keep Bakken barrels moving from the Gulf to eastern refineries.

We Continue to Watch Enbridge

Michigan issued the last major state permits for Enbridge’s Line 5 tunnel last Wednesday, with the Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy reissuing the wetlands and bottomlands permits and the Department of Natural Resources granting its rare-species permit. The approvals clear the state track for the four-mile tunnel under the Straits of Mackinac that would house the 540,000 barrel per day crude and NGL line, after roughly eight years of litigation and a 16-month review. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who campaigned in 2018 on shutting the line down, drew the opponents’ fire directly, and Attorney General Dana Nessel’s shutdown effort continues alongside promised new lawsuits.

Two approvals still stand between Enbridge and construction: a water discharge permit EGLE expects to rule on by September 30, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which narrowed and sped up its review last year. The tunnel will cost $500 million and would take two years to build, which keeps the existing dual pipelines in service through the back half of the decade regardless of how the shutdown fight resolves. Line 5 feeds Sarnia and the Ontario refineries, and the shutdown risk has been the standing bull case for eastern Canadian rail demand for years. PFL has been watching this one for years and doubts the pipeline will ever be forced to be shut down.

We Are Watching CARB

The House Energy and Commerce environment subcommittee advanced the LOCOMOTIVES Act on Tuesday of last week, forwarding it to the full committee by voice vote. The Bill would pre-empt states from writing their own locomotive emissions standards, aimed squarely at the California Air Resources Board and its rule to force zero-emission locomotives onto the state’s rails by 2030. Sponsor Buddy Carter of Georgia framed CARB’s approach as a mandate that would ban much of the national fleet from operating in California and raise consumer prices without cleaner air.

CARB withdrew its EPA authorization request for the In-Use Locomotive rule in January 2025, but the industry wants the loophole shut by statute rather than left to the next administration. The Association of American Railroads has argued the rule would have forced early retirement of much of the national fleet and leaned on zero-emission locomotives that are not yet commercially viable. A companion Senate effort and related bills are moving on a parallel track. This is the rare regulatory fight where the fleet math and the politics point the same direction.

We Are Watching Trucking

The U.S. truckload spot market crossed a line in June it had not seen since February 2022, with the national average dry van spot rate moving above the contract rate. Rates climbed faster than volumes through the month, the signature of tightening capacity rather than a demand surge, and spot pricing pushed past the COVID-era peak. FMCSA enforcement has pulled tens of thousands of drivers out of service, small carriers keep exiting, and the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index ran 6.9% above a year ago in May.

As truckload rates and route-guide failures climb, intermodal is regaining some market share, with brokers flagging renewed shipper interest in moving freight back onto rail. Contract rates lag spot by roughly six months, so the cost pressure builds into 2027. For fleet operators, a tightening truck market is the tailwind that turns idle capacity into utilized capacity. PFL works with shippers positioning cars ahead of that shift, rather than scrambling after it.

We Are Watching Pueblo

Union Pacific took delivery of the first stick of rail from Rocky Mountain Steel’s new $1.2 billion long-rail mill in Pueblo, Colorado last Thursday, with CEO Jim Vena on site to mark the start of operations. The plant is the only dedicated steel rail mill left in the United States, rolling 328-foot sections that need about 80% fewer welds than standard 80-foot rail, running on electric arc furnaces powered by an 1,800-acre solar farm.

The mill anchors a seven-year contract signed in April under which Union Pacific buys the majority of its rail from the Colorado steelmaker, now under Orion Steel ownership. The deal ended UP’s Nebraska lawsuit over rail pricing, though BNSF’s dispute with the mill is still pending. Union Pacific tied the reopening directly to its pending Norfolk Southern merger, framing domestic rail supply as part of the case for the first transcontinental railroad.

Longer rail means fewer welds, fewer defects, and a network built to run heavier for longer. PFL helps shippers and fleet operators keep pace with that buildout through storage, inspections, repairs, cleaning, and transloading, the unglamorous work that keeps cars in service while the majors pour billions into track.

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

The Pathways carbon capture agreement we flagged last week as the missing piece is now signed. Ottawa, Alberta, and the five-company Oil Sands Alliance made the memorandum public last Monday, clearing the condition Carney and Premier Danielle Smith attached to the West Coast oil pipeline they unveiled in Calgary on July 2. Ottawa commits to extend carbon capture investment tax credits to 2035, and Alberta to bankroll incentives that spur the oil production growth needed to fill the new line.

Pathways would capture about six million tonnes of CO2 a year once its first phase reaches service on January 1, 2032, with the full build three years later. Set against the roughly 92 million tonnes the oil sands emitted in 2024, the project offsets about 7% of current output while the pipeline it unlocks is engineered to drive production higher. The price tag has already climbed from an initial $16.5 billion to a range of $20 billion to $30 billion.

The West Coast line itself is a Crown project, led by Trans Mountain Corporation with Pembina the lone private investor, on the same taxpayer-funded model as the $34 billion Trans Mountain expansion. Binding agreements with each producer are due by November 15. It is Canadian taxpayers underwriting both the pipe and the capture hub. In our opinion, this is not a market building pipelines. It is a government buying them, then calling a 7% offset a climate plan.  Our message to Prime Minister Carney – put out the wildfires in Canada!  Enact proper forest management measures.  That would be the first step for saving the planet from climate change.  The active wildfires in Canada release vast quantities of pollution each day, with daily emissions shifting based on weather and how fast the blazes spread. While overall total volume fluctuates, researchers tracking individual peak fire days have measured daily carbon dioxide emissions hitting as high as 1.7 million megatons (1.73 million metric tonnes per-day) during extreme flare-ups.

We Are Watching 45Z

The regulatory fog around clean fuel policy thinned a little earlier this month. The White House budget office’s 2026 Unified Agenda, released July 3rd, lists final 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit rules targeted for November, the first firm timeline producers have had since proposed rules landed in February. The credit runs through 2029 and covers ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, renewable natural gas, and sustainable aviation fuel, all of which move by rail in volume.

The bigger structural shift is on feedstock. Fuel produced after 2025 must use feedstocks grown in the United States, and USDA’s finalized Regenerative Feedstock Rule, effective July 29, sets the framework for corn, soybean, sorghum, and spring canola grown under qualifying practices to earn lower carbon scores. A domestic-only feedstock rule redraws where the grain and oil originate, pulling more volume onto North American rail and away from imported inputs. Until Treasury finalizes in November, the ethanol and renewable diesel plants sizing 2027 volumes are working off a proposed rule, and that limbo is exactly what freezes committed rail bookings.

We are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Producer Price Index

In June 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand declined 0.3% month-over-month, following a 1.1% increase in May, reflecting a sharp easing in upstream price pressures as energy prices retreated. Core PPI (final demand less foods and energy) increased 0.2% month over month, indicating underlying inflation remained relatively stable despite the decline in headline producer prices. The monthly decrease was driven primarily by goods, which fell 1.4%, led by a 6.4% decline in energy prices, including a sharp drop in gasoline prices. Food prices also declined modestly, while core goods (excluding foods and energy) increased 0.2%, suggesting underlying goods inflation remained firm. Within services, prices rose 0.2%, led by stronger trade margins, while transportation and warehousing edged lower, pointing to continued resilience in service-sector inflation despite easing commodity costs.

In June 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased 0.4% month-over-month, reversing May’s 0.5% increase, while the index was up 3.5% year over year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) was unchanged on the month and increased 2.6% year over year. The decline in headline inflation was driven primarily by a 5.7% drop in energy prices, which more than offset continued increases in food and shelter costs. Food prices continued to rise modestly, while shelter remained one of the largest contributors to underlying inflation. Despite the sharp decline in headline CPI, core inflation remained relatively stable, suggesting that most of the month’s improvement reflected lower energy prices rather than a broad-based easing in underlying inflation pressures.

Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing accounts for approximately 75% of total output. Manufacturing output in June increased 0.08% from May 2026.

Capacity utilization is a measure of how fully firms are using machinery and equipment. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.01 percentage points from May in June.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.
• 100, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 10-20, 3200 or 3281 Covered Hoppercars located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Sodium Sulphate service. Period: 3-5 years. Lined.
• 50, 340W Pressure Tank located off of CN or CP in Canada. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 30-50, 340W pressure Tank located off of NS or CSX in Northeast U.S. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.
• 25, 340W Pressure Tank located off of UP or BN in US. For use in Propane service. Period: Winter.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Moving. Last used in styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in giesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 41, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 7-20-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

– Hypatia

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending July 4, 2026 came in at 215,000, versus the adjusted number of 217,000 people from the week prior, down 2,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,814,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,806,000 people from the week prior, up 8,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and mixed week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 149.68 points (0.29%), closing out the week at 52,637.09, down -262.98 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 31.62 points (0.42%), and closed out the week at 7,575.26, up 92.02 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 74.72 points (0.29%), and closed out the week at 26,281.61, up 448.94 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 52,939 this morning, up 33 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$0.67 per barrel (-0.93%), to close at $71.41 on Friday of last week, but up $2.72 per barrel week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -$0.29 per barrel (-0.38%), to close at $76.01, but up $4.21 per barrel week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for August delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$14.40 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$57.39 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3 million barrels week-over-week. At 411.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5 million barrels week-over-week and are 12% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 800,000 barrels week-over-week and are 29% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 69.1 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 0.8 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 2.2 cents per gallon year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.0 million barrels week-over-week during the week ending July 3, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2026, an increase of 351,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.4 million barrels per day, 11.4% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 423,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 87,000 barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.262 million barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2026, a decrease of 746,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.067 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17 million barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2026, which was 173,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $72.82, up $1.41 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending July 8, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-5.78%) in week 28, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending July 8, 2026 were 303,100, up (+1.59%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 256,823, down (-13.21%) year over year. 6 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year decreases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-26.44%). The largest increase was Metallic Ores and Metals (+34.65%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+8.25%), with the largest decrease coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-9.90%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+33.27%). NS’s total volumes were down (-60.45%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+141.01%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-96.86%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+10.58%), with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+19.18%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-28.68%). UP’s total volumes were up (+8.19%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+23.40%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-6.21%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+0.39%), with the largest increase coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (+19.95%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-28.68%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+5.50%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+39.66%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-16.20%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was down by -10 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was up by +1 rig week-over-week, and up by +44 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 581 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -11 rigs week-over-week but up by +17 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 179 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +61 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,746 from 29,667 which was an increase of +79 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +2.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +3.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were lower across the board. CSX had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -8.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 319.489 million barrels, down from 415.442 million barrels at the start of the conflict with Iran and reaching their lowest level since May 1983. Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. Since the first SPR drawdown began, the United States has withdrawn approximately 975,000 barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending July 3, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Continue to Watch Hormuz

War on – War off led to a volatile week in Oil Markets last week. Brent slipped below $70 a barrel on July 1st as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebuilt following the June 18th memorandum of understanding, and Morgan Stanley cut its price forecast twice in two weeks while openly warning of a glut. That call did not survive the week. Last Tuesday, the U.S. revoked the sanctions waiver that had briefly let Iranian barrels back onto the market, ordering a wind-down by July 17th, after projectiles struck multiple tankers near the strait.

Washington then struck Iran for two days – knocking out key military targets, Tehran then lashed out against U.S. bases in the region, and President Trump declared the ceasefire over while threatening a fresh blockade and strikes on the Kharg Island export terminal. WTI settled back above $72 and traded near $73.50 by Thursday, its strongest single-session gain since May. The reopening that markets had booked as permanent is once again conditional on a deal that Iran is not honoring.

The June Short-Term Energy Outlook assumed most shut-in Middle East supply returns by year end, which is what fed the glut talk in the first place. That assumption is now the entire market, and it is being rewritten in real time by whether tankers can clear Hormuz without being fired on. The cushion behind U.S. prices is thin: crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down about 21% on the year to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. For rail the read is simple: sustained strength in North American crude keeps refiners and terminals pulling hard and keeps tank cars turning. We continue to watch this one one – and have seen sporadic added service.

We Are Watching Enbridge

Enbridge raised apportionment on light crude nominations for July flow on the Canada-U.S. Mainline and trimmed its heavy allocation, with the system running near 95% utilization and moving roughly two-thirds of all Canadian crude that leaves the country by pipeline. The largest export line on the continent has no room to add barrels, and that is the precondition for any rail conversation. Canada’s crude-by-rail exports ran 84,534 barrels per day in April, the latest month the Canada Energy Regulator has reported on, which was up from 74,248 in March and back near the top of the roughly 63,000 to 87,000 barrel-per-day band that has held since Trans Mountain came online in May 2024.

The economics are not there yet. One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for August delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$14.40 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$57.39 per barrel, while the all-in cost of railing heavy crude from Alberta to the Gulf Coast runs close to $18 a barrel. Rail needs the discount to run wider, but is irrelevant at this point – with pipelines full the producer will just have to settle for lower netbacks.  The good news is Alberta inventories are at the lowest levels for this time of year since 2017, so there is some cushion to absorb excess production at least for a little while.

The problem is oil production keeps climbing into a full system.  Oil sands projects take years and billions of dollars to plan for and the market never planned for the 1 million barrel per day Key Stone XL pipeline to be cancelled by President Biden on his first day in office.  Growth from oil sands producers such as Strathcona, along with raw bitumen moving non-hazardous out of the Hardisty diluent recovery unit at rates competitive with pipeline tolls, is precisely the barrel with nowhere to go when the Mainline apportions. Enbridge’s own $1.4 billion optimization adds 150,000 barrels per day by the end of 2027, with a second 250,000-barrel phase not due before the end of 2028 and not yet sanctioned. Four Canadian pipeline proposals totaling roughly 2.75 million barrels per day are on the drawing board, but none carries an in-service date before 2028 and analysts already warn of an over-build.

PFL has watched enough of these cycles to know the fleet math runs ahead of the price signal. There are not many 117J crude cars sitting idle, build times run one to two years, and lessors and car owners, not shippers, set the terms, usually five-year commitments are required with the Class 1’s.

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Carney

A West Coast oil pipeline was filed with Ottawa’s Major Projects Office on Thursday of last week, a 1,200-kilometre line from Bruderheim, Alberta to the southern British Columbia coast along the Trans Mountain right-of-way, sized above one million barrels per day. Danielle Smith told Albertans last October that provincial taxpayers would not be on the hook to build it, yet the proposal that landed has Canada and Alberta as equal partners with the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission holding equity. Pembina is the lone private participant, at a 10% construction stake with an option for another 10%, under a non-binding agreement.

Mark Carney called the line a catalyst for more than $200 billion in investment and described that as a lowball figure. The memorandum he signed last November referenced privately constructed and financed pipelines. What arrived instead is another Crown-backed project on the model of the $34 billion Trans Mountain expansion, funded by taxpayers with no producers participation. Alberta pegs the cost at C$35 billion to C$44 billion, construction would not start until October 2027, and the line would not be in service before 2032. The province’s own earlier promises are now on record against the structure.

The deeper problem is that nothing gets built on a workable timeline. WSP’s Corey McNair told the Global Energy Show that the regulatory process is broken, pointing to more than 500 federal and provincial impact assessments and no clear standard for what Indigenous consultation requires. The same permitting quagmire choking pipelines is now stalling the critical-minerals mines Ottawa says it wants built, and no decision on the West Coast line is expected before October. The northern tanker ban stays, and Pathways, the oil sands carbon-capture project, remains explicitly linked to the pipeline and still unsigned.

In our opinion, a government that took nine months to file for a pipeline it will pay for itself, on a route that already exists, is not the government that gets a barrel to tidewater this decade. Maybe rail comes into play somewhat as a back stop but no one is really talking about going down that path in a meaningful way – at least not yet.

We Continue to Watch the Surface Transportation Board

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed the first tranche of supplemental information with the Surface Transportation Board on Tuesday of last week, offering to dilute or divest their stakes in three jointly-owned Class I businesses, the Terminal Railroad Association of St. Louis, the Kansas City Terminal Railway and TTX, whose pool alone manages about 177,000 railcars that all the majors run on. The rest of the board’s requests are due by July 27, and that filing, not the press releases, decides whether the $85 billion combination advances. The board accepted the revised application as complete on May 28 and held the proceeding in abeyance until then, with a decision clock that points to mid-2027.

This is the first real test of the 2001 rules that require a major railroad merger to enhance competition, not merely preserve it, and the applicants are selling it hard: a 55,000-mile single-line network moving about half of U.S. rail freight, transit 24 to 48 hours faster, an estimated $3.5 billion in annual shipper savings and 2.1 million trucks off the road. There is no voting trust, so Union Pacific takes no operational control until final approval, and the reverse termination fee sits at $2.5 billion if the deal falls apart. Shipper and other Class I opposition remains lined up on rates, competition and service, though President Trump and SMART-TD, the largest rail union, are both on side.

One wildcard sits outside the evidentiary record: last week’s Supreme Court ruling striking down 90-year-old removal protections lets the President fire commissioners at independent agencies, the board included, and he is openly for this deal. A single-line transcontinental reshapes routing, car supply and interchange for every commodity that crosses the Mississippi. We continue to watch the July 27th filing closely, and note the board may have a path to conditions rather than a clean yes or no.

We Are Watching RIN’s

The D4 biomass-based diesel RIN has climbed roughly 130% so far in 2026, closing at $2.54 per RIN on Friday of last week (see PFL RIN report). The EPA’s Set 2 rule, the highest renewable volumes in the program’s history, took effect June 15, and the driver is no longer just the mandate. The 70% step-up in the biomass-based diesel obligation to six billion gallons lit the fuse, but the end-of-year RIN bank has been drawn down to roughly 0.65 billion credits for 2026 against 3.6 billion as recently as 2024. That is the thinnest compliance cushion the program has carried since 2022, and the agency-built part of that drawdown into the rule through its 70% reallocation of small-refinery exemptions.

A depleted bank forces obligated parties to meet the mandate with current-year physical blending instead of leaning on stockpiled credits, and physical blending moves biodiesel, renewable diesel and their feedstocks by tank car. EIA data reported last week put April biofuel feedstock consumption near 28 billion pounds, down about 8% from March but up 4% from a year earlier, and the USDA’s new 45Z regenerative feedstock rule is designed to pull still more soybean and canola oil into the pool. Higher mandated volumes on top of a bare RIN bank is a direct demand signal for the cars that carry biofuel and vegetable oil.

This one sits squarely in PFL’s lane. The ethanol and biodiesel fleet does not flex overnight, and a mandate step-change with no credit bank to absorb it lands directly on car availability. Higher renewable volumes also pull through the recurring work that keeps those fleets moving: tank car cleaning on product changeovers, inspections, repairs and storage for the seasonal swings. In our opinion the shippers who lock capacity and service ahead of the compliance crunch will be glad they did. Give the RIN bank a hard look, then give us a call.

We Are Watching Freight Rates

Transportation costs are spiking on the water and on the ground as an early trans-Pacific peak meets tight capacity. U.S. importers are paying close to double their contracted ocean rates as frontloaded fall and holiday freight, war-linked emergency fuel surcharges and higher bunker adjustments stack up, with spot cargo carrying an even steeper premium. Market sources expect the frontloading to lose steam by late July, though some see enough underlying demand to push volumes into the fall.

On the surface a regulatory-driven capacity shortage is lifting dry-van, less-than-truckload and flatbed rates, and Union Pacific has layered its own peak-season surcharge on outbound domestic intermodal from Southern California. When trucking tightens and intermodal carries a surcharge at the same time, shippers lose the pressure valve they use to arbitrage the two, and rates hold higher for longer. FreightWaves has flagged the same truckload tightening across its spot indices.

None of this reads as a one-week blip. The capacity that left the truckload market for regulatory reasons is not returning before peak, and the intermodal surcharge says the railroads know it. We are watching whether the late-July fade shows up on schedule or whether this runs deep into the fall.

We Are Watching FreightCar America

FreightCar America booked a multi-year order for 1,900 railcars last Monday, deliveries running through 2028, and put second-quarter orders at roughly 3,000 cars worth about $300 million, which management called a commercial inflection point. The order came across every core car type, and that breadth matters more than the headline number in a market where new-car demand has been soft on tariff uncertainty.

Set that against a builder base that is shrinking and now taxed. Greenbrier delivered 3,200 cars in its fiscal third quarter, down 6% on the year, and cut its full-year guide to 15,850, with industry deliveries for 2026 tracking below 25,000, the fewest since 2010. A 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminum and a new 25% tariff on imported tank cars, with steeper rates on axles and wheels, have raised costs across the builders and pushed shippers to hold older leased cars rather than order new. Trinity and GATX face the same input squeeze, retirements of aging cars are still outrunning deliveries, and Greenbrier, whose chief executive calls rising demand a matter of when, not if, is fighting the tank-car tariff through an administrative appeal.

Folks, this is the quiet part of the cycle that sets up the loud part. Retirements outrunning builds, with tariffs now taxing every new car built outside of the U.S., means tight availability the moment any commodity, crude or biofuel or grain, calls for cars at once. PFL advises shippers on exactly this timing, and in our opinion the fleet is closer to a squeeze than the soft order headlines suggest.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

U.S. Unemployment

On July 2, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that a preliminary 57,000 net new jobs were created in June 2026, well below expectations and marking a notable slowdown in hiring from the stronger pace seen earlier this spring. The BLS also revised employment figures for the prior two months downward, subtracting a combined 74,000 jobs from April and May totals. April was revised down to 148,000 new jobs, while May was revised down to 129,000. 

According to the BLS, total nonfarm payroll employment has increased by approximately 334,000 jobs over the last three months (April through June 2026). The official unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% in June from 4.3% in May, indicating that while hiring slowed considerably, the labor market remained relatively stable overall.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Moving. Last used in styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in giesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.
• 68, 30K Tanks located off of in Brownsville. Last used in Diesel.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 7-13-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending June 27, 2026 came in at 215,000, versus the adjusted number of 216,000 people from the week prior, down 1,000 people week-over-week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,814,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,812,000 people from the week prior, up 2,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed mixed on Thursday of last week but higher week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Thursday of last week, up 594.83 points (1.14%), closing out the week at 52,900.07, up 1,023.96 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday of last week, up 0.01 points (0.00%), and closed out the week at 7,483.24, up 129.22 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Thursday of last week, down -207.36 points (-0.80%), and closed out the week at 25,832.67, up 535.05 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 53,214 this morning, up 31 points from Thursday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday of last week but lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $0.11 per barrel (0.2%), to close at $68.69 on Thursday of last week, but down $0.54 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $0.23 per barrel (0.3%), to close at $71.80, but down $0.19 week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for August delivery settled on Thursday of last week at US$15.35 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$53.27 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.8 million barrels week-over-week. At 408.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels week-over-week and are 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels week-over-week and are 33% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 69.9 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 2 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 4.2 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 700,000 barrels week-over-week during the week ending June 26, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day during the week ending June 26, 2026, a decrease of 291,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day, 10.9% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 639,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 108,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 26, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.008 million barrels per day during the week ending June 26, 2026, a decrease of 661,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.461 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending June 26, 2026, which was 85,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $70.44, up $1.21 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending July 1, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+6.13%) in week 27, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending July 1, 2026 were 335,005, up (+2.65%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 354,541, up (+9.65%) year-over-year. 8 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-4.23%). The largest increase was Other (+12.29%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+7.39%), with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-15.17%), while the largest increase came from Other (+17.55%). NS’s total volumes were up (+7.10%), with the largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+20.23%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-6.29%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+8.99%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+28.43%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-9.60%). UP’s total volumes were up (+4.08%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+14.72%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-16.49%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-2.58%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+40.32%), while the largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-13.95%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+6.10%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+51.70%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-22.70%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was unchanged week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was up by +7 rigs week-over-week, and up by +41 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 580 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -7 rigs week-over-week, but up by +39 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 190 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +80 rigs collectively.

International rig count was up by +27 rigs month-over-month but down by -2 rigs year-over-year. Internationally there are 1073 active rigs.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We were watching July 4^th

Well, folks we hope everyone had a great July 4^th weekend.  The Country got into what seemed to be a multi week celebration in a big way.  Having the World Cup over here in North America added to the flair.

Over the July 4th weekend, railroads and rail industry suppliers across North America recognized America’s 250th anniversary with a series of commemorative locomotives and railcars celebrating the industry’s long-standing role in supporting the nation’s economy and supply chains.

The effort extended well beyond the class 1’s. Last week, Genesee & Wyoming unveiled a commemorative locomotive featuring Mount Rushmore, OmniTRAX introduced a patriotic locomotive on its Chicago Rail Link, The Prairie Line dedicated locomotive No. 1776 to members of the U.S. Armed Forces, and Union Tank Car Company (UTLX) rolled out a custom-painted tank car honoring American manufacturing. These joined America250 locomotives previously introduced by Class I railroads including BNSF, CPKC, CN, CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific, with all expected to remain in regular freight service across their respective networks.

While primarily commemorative, the coordinated effort highlights freight rail’s continued role in moving the commodities that support North American industry, including agricultural products, chemicals, energy products, steel, automotive parts, consumer goods, and intermodal freight. Rather than serving as static displays, the locomotives and railcars will continue operating across North America throughout the anniversary celebration.

The broad participation from Class I railroads, short lines, railcar manufacturers, and suppliers demonstrates a shared focus on freight rail’s role in supporting North America manufacturing, commerce, and supply chains as the industry looks toward continued investment and growth.

PFL had its annual July 4^th fireworks show and celebration on July 4^th and it reminded us how important each and everyone of you our readers are vital in keeping this country moving, rocking and rolling in the free world.  Happy 250 America and for our Canadian friends we hope that you had a great Canada day celebration.

We Continue to Watch Hormuz

The war premium has fully unwound. WTI has traded back below $70 and Brent below $71, both at their lowest since late February, the day before the Iran war began. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered beyond 10 million barrels per day with the U.S. naval blockade lifted, the UAE back above pre-war export levels, and Iranian barrels returning to the water, which has turned a four-month supply scare into a surplus.

The demand side is confirming the move. U.S. retail gasoline fell to roughly $3.83 last week, the lowest since early March, as U.S. crude inventories have drawn steadily to historic lows. OPEC+ is ramping into the reopening even as it fractures, with Iraq pressing for a larger quota and floating an exit after the UAE already walked in May. The next round of U.S.-Iran talks slipped in Doha, so headline risk is not gone, but the market is pricing in normalization.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 133 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA). .

The United States continues to execute its commitment to make available up to 172 million barrels from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets.  Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 325.655 million barrels, down sharply from levels above 450 million barrels earlier this year and reaching their lowest level since June 1983 . Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. On average, since the war started with Iran, the United States has withdrawn approximately 1.15 million barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending June 26, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Are Watching Left Wing Carney

Ottawa referred Alberta’s proposed 1 million barrel per day West Coast oil pipeline to the Major Projects Office on Thursday of last week, the clearest sign yet that the Carney government seemingly intends to see a bitumen line to tidewater built on its watch. The project is structured as an equal federal-provincial partnership, with Trans Mountain Corporation (government owned pipeline) leading development, Pembina Pipeline was named as the lone named private investor, and there is a reserved equity stake for Indigenous communities. The route would largely follow the existing Trans Mountain corridor to a deep-water port in the Vancouver area capable of loading very large crude carriers, and Ottawa is targeting a national-interest listing by October 1st with construction possible as early as September 2027.

That same day, Carney and B.C. Premier David Eby signed a Canada-B.C. agreement that keeps the northern tanker ban intact and expands the Roberts Bank terminal in Delta, killing Premier Smith’s preferred Prince Rupert deep-water endpoint. Eby stated that the province will not go to court to fight a pipeline project and removed the legal obstruction that dogged the original Trans Mountain expansion. Ottawa has been explicit that the pipeline remains conditional on the Pathways carbon-capture project proceeding, so two multi-billion-dollar megaprojects are now lashed together.

For a Liberal government that spent a decade stacking climate policy on the oil patch, this is a full reversal, and Carney said so himself last Tuesday in a video telling Canadians the country cannot restrain the growth of oil and gas. The tell is that after a referral, a route sketch, and a partnership announcement, there is still no private proponent willing to finance and build the line, which Carney conceded last week. A one-million-barrel proposal with no builder, no funding model, and a decision gate that does not close until October is just a press release but time will tell.

We Are Watching Greenbrier

Greenbrier’s fiscal third quarter, was reported last Wednesday for the period ended May 31, is a clean read on a bifurcated market. The owned lease fleet grew 23% sequentially to 20,600 cars at 99% utilization, with demand called out specifically for tank cars and covered hoppers. Leasing is doing the heavy lifting while manufacturing  softens, with revenue at $576.5mn against $842.7mn a year earlier and a fresh $425mn non-recourse term loan taken to keep feeding the lease fleet.

The build side is the soft spot. New orders were 2,200 units against 3,600 delivered, dropping the backlog to roughly $2.0bn from $2.2bn a year ago and $3.4bn the year before. Management pegged calendar-2026 North American railcar deliveries as the lowest since 2010, under 25,000 units, before a rebound above 34,000 in 2027. The company is also watching a possible tariff on tank cars built in Mexico, which would feed straight into new-car cost.

The signal for a fleet owner is that a starved order book on top of 99% utilization is what holds lease economics firm on the cars already on the rails. It seems to us at PFL that Greenbrier results of the leasing industry are reminiscent of all owners who have high utilization rates and the secondary market, once robust, is thinning. 

We Are Watching Refineries

The U.S. refining map took several hits at once last week. A June 25 fire at Monroe Energy’s 185,000 b/d Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania pulled a key Atlantic Coast plant offline and helped drive regional refinery runs to about 68%, the lowest since April 2025. That came on top of reported unit outages at Gulf Coast plants, and Gulf Coast gasoline stocks fell to 20-month lows as strong exports compounded the disruptions.

The rail angle sits in PADD 1. A hobbled Trainer and thin Atlantic Coast supply is the kind of setup that historically pulls Bakken barrels east, by pipe where it exists and by rail at the margin. What is capping that pull this year is the Jones Act waiver, which is letting foreign-flag tankers move product coastwise into the northeast, and how much of the shortfall clears by rail depends on how long these units stay down and whether the waiver is extended past mid-August.

We Are Watching the USMCA Review

The Trump administration declined to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement at its scheduled six-year review last Wednesday, leaving the deal in force but triggering a round of annual reviews that runs to 2036. There is no immediate hit to freight rail, but the industries most exposed to the outcome, automotive, chemicals, plastics, steel, agriculture, and intermodal, are core rail traffic. The next round of U.S.-Mexico talks is expected to begin the week of July 20, with Canada so far largely kept out of the negotiating room.

The direction of the effect depends on where the rules land. Stricter regional content requirements would, over time, favor North American manufacturing and the raw-material, industrial, and finished-goods shipments that move it by rail, a net positive for volumes. The near-term risk runs the other way, as shippers facing an uncertain rulebook tend to defer the plant and sourcing decisions that generate that traffic in the first place.

For the cross-border franchises this matters most to CPKC, whose single-line Mexico-to-Canada network is built around exactly the automotive and industrial flows now on the table. The July 20 round is the next real signal on rules of origin, and it is worth watching before anyone commits to fleet or routing changes.

We Are Watching Carbon by Rail

A genuinely new tank car demand category is taking shape. Union Pacific is moving to haul carbon dioxide captured at Midwest ethanol plants to sequestration sites in Wyoming along its Overland Route, with a target startup in late 2027. Greenbrier says it already has next-generation CO2 tank cars under construction against multiple orders, and the economics run on the $85-per-ton 45Q credit for captured and stored carbon.

What makes this more than a one-railroad story is that overlaying ethanol producers with favorable geology puts BNSF, CPKC, and CN in line for the same traffic, and it rhymes directly with the Pathways carbon-capture build-out that Ottawa and has now tied to a new Alberta pipeline. For a fleet that has spent a decade watching crude by rail car counts shrink, a durable, credit-backed CO2 flow could be the kind of new lease demand worth looking into.  Last we checked CO2 cars were very expensive.  We will be keeping our eye on this one.

We Are Watching the Jones Act

The national-security rationale for the coastwise waiver is wearing thin. A Chinese-flagged tanker operated by a Cosco subsidiary the Pentagon has flagged as a security risk is running everyday domestic cargoes such as asphalt into Baltimore under a waiver meant to backstop military fuel supply during the Hormuz disruption. Roughly a quarter of the waiver voyages approved since March have gone to Chinese-owned or Chinese-subsidized ships.

The waiver runs to mid-August with no word on extension. Every coastwise cargo that moves on a foreign-flag tanker is a cargo that domestic tug-and-barge operators, and at the margin the railroads, would otherwise carry. The domestic maritime lobby is making the point loudly, and if the administration lets the waiver lapse into a tight East Coast product market, the displaced volume has to find another mode.

We Continue to Watch the Surface Transportation Board

The UP-NS clock is inside four weeks. The applicants’ supplemental filing is due July 27, with the merits proceeding and the environmental review still held in abeyance and the Board having denied a broad ex-parte waiver. Nothing new filed over the past week, so this is a status check rather than a development.

The base case remains a long review. The Board is applying its 2001 merger rules for the first time to a Class I combination, the companies still point to an early-2027 close, and if the supplement lands clean at month-end the environmental review and its public meetings would then set the real timeline. We will treat any read on the eventual outcome as speculation until the record actually builds.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management releases two PMI reports—one covering manufacturing and the other covering services. These reports are based on surveys of supply managers across the country and track changes in business activity. A reading above 50% on the index indicates expansion, while a reading below 50% signifies contraction, with a faster pace of change the farther the reading is from 50.

The Manufacturing PMI registered 53.3% in June 2026, down from 54.0% in May but still marking the sixth consecutive month of expansion. While manufacturing activity moderated from May’s four-year high, growth continued to be supported by expanding new orders and production. The New Orders Index eased to 56.0% from 56.8% in May, while the Employment Index improved to 49.7% from 48.6%, though it remained in contraction territory, indicating manufacturers continue to be cautious about hiring.

The Services PMI for June 2026 has not yet been released. The most recent reading remains 54.5% (May 2026), up from 53.6% in April, reflecting the sector’s 23rd consecutive month of expansion. Business activity and new orders both strengthened during the month, with the New Orders Index increasing to 57.3% from 53.5% in April. However, the Employment Index fell to 47.9%, signaling continued weakness in service-sector hiring despite solid overall business activity.

Consumer Confidence

The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased from 49.5 in May to 44.8 in June.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased from 90.6 in May to 91.2 in June.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Moving. Last used in styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in giesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

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Jobs Update

Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending June 20, 2026 came in at 215,000, versus the adjusted number of 227,000 people from the week prior, down 12,000 people week over week.

Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,821,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,800,000 people from the week prior, up 21,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and mixed week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -44.51 points (-0.09%), closing out the week at 51,876.11, up 311.41 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -3.47 points (-0.05%), and closed out the week at 7,354.02, down -146.56 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -60.99 points (-0.24%), and closed out the week at 25,297.62, down -1,220.31 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 52,370 this morning, up 161 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed mixed on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -$2.69 per barrel (-3.74%), to close at $69.23 on Friday of last week, and down $7.37 week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -$3.27 per barrel (-4.34%), to close at $71.99, and down $7.86 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for August delivery settled on Thursday of last week at US$13.90 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$57.46 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.1 million barrels week-over-week. At 412.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 10% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels week-over-week and are 35% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 71.9 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 6 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 8.7 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels week-over-week during the week ending June 19, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day during the week ending June 19, 2026, an increase of 436,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day, 4.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 647,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 135,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 19, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.669 million barrels per day during the week ending June 19, 2026, an increase of 342,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.928 million barrels per day

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending June 19, 2026, which was 81,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $70.44, up $1.21 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending June 24, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+7.23%) in week 26, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending June 24, 2026 were 333,212, up (+1.90%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 352,664, up (+12.81%) year over year. 9 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Coal (-7.17%). The largest increase was Intermodal Units (+12.81%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+9.12%), with the largest decrease coming from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-2.11%), while the largest increase came from Other (+19.95%). NS’s total volumes were up (+6.87%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+19.39%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-19.06%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+12.52%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+38.56%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-26.70%). UP’s total volumes were up (+5.23%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+21.23%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-18.12%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-3.79%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+7.21%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-26.70%). CPKCS’s total volumes were up (+1.69%), with the largest increase coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (+36.76%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-19.03%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

North American rig count was up by +21 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was up by +10 rigs week-over-week, and up by +26 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 573 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by +11 rigs week-over-week and up by +57 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 197 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are up by +83 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We Are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,667 from 29,476 which was an increase of +191 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were lower. CN’s shipments were lower by -3.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were lower by -5.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly higher. The UP was the sole decliner and was down by -1.0%. The CSX had the largest percentage increase and was up by +9.0% week-over-week.

We Continue to Watch Our Strategic Petroleum Reserves 

The ongoing emergency drawdown of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains a major component of global efforts to offset crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the continued restrictions on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, the Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded exchanges covering more than 80 million barrels of crude oil, with additional releases expected as part of a broader international response coordinated through the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The United States committed to making up to 172 million barrels available from the SPR under the IEA’s collective plan to inject roughly 400 million barrels into global energy markets. Officials have argued that the releases are necessary to help stabilize crude supplies and limit further increases in fuel prices as refiners compete for replacement barrels amid ongoing transportation disruptions.

As releases have accelerated, inventories in the SPR have declined to 331.191 million barrels, down sharply from levels above 450 million barrels earlier this year and reaching their lowest level since June 1983. Recent weekly withdrawals have ranked among the largest on record, highlighting the scale of the government’s intervention in oil markets. On average, since the war started with Iran, the United States has withdrawn approximately 1.13 million barrels per day from the SPR through the week ending June 19, 2026.

Global petroleum inventories have also tightened considerably. The IEA has reported substantial draws in commercial crude and refined-product stockpiles across major consuming nations, underscoring the strain that the conflict has placed on world energy markets. Agency officials have indicated that further coordinated actions remain possible should supply disruptions persist or intensify.

The Administration continues to emphasize that the current program consists primarily of exchange agreements, rather than outright sales. Under these arrangements, companies receiving crude oil today are required to return the borrowed barrels in the future along with additional volumes as a premium. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has stated that the objective is to eventually restore the SPR to levels above those that existed prior to the current emergency releases.

We Are Watching Canadian Crude by Rail

The Canadian Energy regulator reported on June 20, 2026, that 84,534 barrels were exported during the month of April 2026, up from 74,248 barrels in February of 2026, an increase of 10,286 barrels per day month-over-month.

Crude by rail will always be necessary out of Canada for stranded oil not connected by pipelines. Raw bitumen, which is shipped as a non-haz product and is not able to flow in pipelines, is competitive with pipeline tolls and is a growing market to keep an eye on. We really need to see basis WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average) blowout to -18 per barrel for sustained periods of time to make economic sense. Current rail rates from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast have averaged roughly $17 per barrel, making rail competitive whenever WCS-WTI spreads exceed $18 per barrel, including quality adjustments.

This is not a fleet that switches overnight: car owners and lessors want five-year commitments, the Class Ones expect similar term, and new 117J cars carry one to two year build times.

PFL is fielding questions from shippers weighing whether to secure term coverage now rather than chase cars into a tightening market. Locking equipment ahead of a constraint is a very different exercise than scrambling for it after the spread blows out but this is an expensive proposition. One consideration is the outright price of oil itself now that the Iran situation seems somewhat contained (there were a few skirmishes over the weekend – Iran shoot at ships and us taking out more targets)  – If crude were to go to $50 per barrel and basis went to -30, that would mean a Canadian producer would get paid $20 per barrel, well below production costs and that is where we would see crude by rail collapse as it did in February 2020 where crude by rail out of Canada was running at 420,000 and overnight dropped to 50,000 barrels per day..

We Continue to Watch the UP and the NS 

The Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger drew fresh scrutiny last week as board member Karen Hedlund faced the Senate Commerce Committee at a June 24 hearing on her renomination to the Surface Transportation Board. Pressed by Chairman Ted Cruz and Senator Tammy Baldwin, Hedlund called maintaining competition in an already concentrated rail industry “a significant concern” and pointed to the enhanced-competition standard the Board adopted in 2001. She added that any retaliation against shippers who oppose the deal would be unacceptable, after Baldwin cited reports that Union Pacific had threatened exactly that, a charge the railroad denies.

The hearing landed in the middle of a fight over the clock. The Board accepted the revised application on May 28th, but held the proceeding in abeyance and ordered the railroads to file supplemental information by July 27th before any formal review begins. Union Pacific chief executive Jim Vena has argued the twelve-month statutory review clock started ticking on May 28, pointing toward a decision by mid-2027, while the Stop the Rail Merger Coalition, which includes BNSF, CPKC, the American Chemistry Council and the Teamsters, has accused the railroad of trying to rush an incomplete process.

The transaction would create the first U.S. transcontinental railroad, a network of roughly 55,000 miles handling about half of the country’s rail freight, which the applicants say would speed transit by 24 to 48 hours and take more than two million trucks off the road. For shippers with corridor or interchange exposure, the weeks before the July 27 filing are a planning window, not a waiting room. PFL is helping customers map how single-line routing across a combined network would reshape their movements, well ahead of any Board decision.

We Are Watching the Trona Railway

Searles Valley Minerals filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 15 in Delaware, pulling its short-line Trona Railway into a court-supervised sale of substantially all the company’s assets. The borate, sodium sulfate and salt producer, owned by India’s Nirma, will market the railway alongside its Westend boron plant, mineral reserves and a local water utility under a Section 363 process run by Lazard. Operations continue during the case, funded by twenty million dollars from the parent and an interest-free twenty million dollar advance from Tata Chemicals North America.

The filing follows a brutal stretch for the Searles Lake complex. The company mothballed its soda ash operations in February and cut roughly half of its workforce, citing damage from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes, a flood of low-priced Chinese soda ash, and a fiscal-year loss near seventy-one million dollars. The Trona Railway, which connects the Searles Lake facilities to the Union Pacific main line, keeps running and moving product to interchange while the sale proceeds.

The piece worth watching is on the equipment side. A July 7th omnibus hearing will take up rejection of the railcar leases tied to the idled soda ash operations, which would send those cars back to lessors and into a market already absorbing returned equipment. PFL works with owners and shippers on exactly this kind of redeployment, and a short-line changing hands is often where covered-hopper and specialty fleets get repriced.

We Are Watching Cargo Theft

Cargo theft is running about 60% ahead of last year and now costs U.S. businesses an estimated $35 billion annually, the backdrop for a product Samsara rolled out last Wednesday at its Las Vegas conference. The new Tracking Label is a single-use, paper-thin Bluetooth tag that reports a shipment’s location in near real time off the company’s network of millions of connected vehicles and devices, with no action required from the carrier. It carries a 45-day battery, no lithium or hazardous materials, and ships cleared for air, ground and rail.

The pitch is visibility between scans, the blind stretch where freight typically goes dark from pickup to delivery. For high-value rail and intermodal loads, a disposable tag that clears rail out of the box is a cheaper answer than the GPS and cellular trackers shippers have leaned on, and it arrives as organized theft rings grow more sophisticated. Early adopters are using it on electronics and other high-value cargo, the same loads that draw the most attention from thieves.

Whether a sticker-sized tracker meaningfully dents a $35 billion problem is an open question, but the direction of travel is clear. Loss prevention is becoming a data exercise, and the equipment moving high-value freight is getting smarter whether the cars are owned, leased or interchanged. We will be watching how quickly the rail side adopts it. 

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Spending

In May 2026, total consumer spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.3% from April 2026, accelerating from the 0.1% increase recorded in April and reflecting continued resilience in household demand despite rising inflation and debt pressures. Consumer spending remained supported by solid income growth, tax refunds, and a strong labor market.

Inflation-adjusted spending on goods and services both contributed to the increase in May, with consumer demand remaining broad-based across categories. Services spending continued to outperform goods spending, extending the long-running trend of stronger service-sector consumption as households allocate a larger share of spending toward travel, healthcare, recreation, and other service-related activities.

Lease Bids

• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, and  Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in various locations. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 20, DOT 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in various locations. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.
• 300, 5200CF Covered Hoppers located off of CP or CM in Canada. For use in Petcoke service. Period: 3 Year.
• 10, 30K 117J Tanks located off of BNSF in Canada. For use in Propane or Butane service. Period: 3 Year.
• 20, 28K or larger 117J Tanks located off of BNSF or UP in California. For use in Crude service. Period: 6 months.
• 75, 30K 117 Tanks located off of NS in Ohio. For use in Condensate service. Period: 6-12 Months. Mag Rods Not Needed.
• 100, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CP or CN in Canada. For use in VGO service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 5, 28.3K DOT 111 or 117 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Bitumen service. Period: Trip Lease.
• 5-10, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of CN in Canada. For use in Caustic service. Period: 3-6 Months.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.

Lease Offers

• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Moving. Last used in styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Texas. Cars are currently clean.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of all class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in propane and butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of all class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 6, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in surfactant. Cars are currently clean.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in the South. Last used in ethanol.
• 30, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable jet fuel.
• 80, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable diesel.
• 10, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF in Washington. Last used in renewable naphtha.
• 10, 29K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline additive. Coiled and Insulated.
• 39, 31K CPC1232 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Iowa. Last used in diesel.
• 2, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in giesel.
• 1, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gas blend stock.
• 3, 30K DOT 117R Tanks located off of BNSF and UP in Texas. Last used in gasoline.

Sales Offers

• 81, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BNSF in TX. Last used in Multiple Services. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BNSF in the Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

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