Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending April 11, 2026 came in at 207,000, versus the adjusted number of 218,000 people from the week prior, down 11,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,818,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,787,000 people from the week prior, up 31,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 869.20 points (1.79%), closing out the week at 49,447.92, up 1,531.35 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 84.76 points (1.20%), and closed out the week at 7,126.04, up 309.15 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 365.78 points (1.52%), and closed out the week at 24,468.48, up 1,565.59 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 49,377 this morning, down 264 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -10.84 per barrel (-11.5%), to close at $83.85 on Friday of last week, and down $12.72 week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -9.01 per barrel (-9.1%), to close at $90.38, and down $4.82 week-over-week. 

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for May delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$17.00 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$72.77 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 900,000 barrels week-over-week. At 463.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 6.3 million barrels week-over-week and are 1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 300,000 barrels week-over-week and are 68% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 71 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 5.2 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 3.8 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.0 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending April 10, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.3 million barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026, a decrease of 1.0 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels per day, 1.3% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 316,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 118,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 5.225 million barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026, an increase of 1.076 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.054 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16 million barrels per day during the week ending April 10, 2026, which was 208,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $87.13 this morning, up $4.54 from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending April 15, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+1.31%) in week 16, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending April 15, 2026 were 337,539, up (+5.48%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 327,175, down (-2.66%) year over year. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-8.90%). The largest increase was Coal (+21.06%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+4.60%), with the largest decrease coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (-7.89%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+20.18%). NS’s total volumes were up (+0.12%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+17.82%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-10.49%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+4.04%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+69.60%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-2.11%). UP’s total volumes were down (-0.59%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+15.52%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-8.19%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+11.87%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+136.50%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-22.00%), with the largest increase coming from Farm Products (+33.18%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-67.15%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -7 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was down by -2 rigs week-over-week, and down by -42 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 543 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -5 rigs week-over-week and down by -4 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 130 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -46 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We were at last week’s tank car committee meeting

The April 2026 Tank Car Committee (TCC) meeting, held in Nashville, Tennessee, brought together key people from across the rail industry, including major railroads, regulatory agencies, and industry organizations, to address ongoing safety, regulatory, and operational priorities. The open session, conducted over April 15–16, focused on a structured agenda that included safety briefings, regulatory updates from agencies such as the FRA, PHMSA, and NTSB, and discussions surrounding the Tank Car Research Program. A significant portion of the meeting centered on active dockets, covering topics such as inspection standards, service equipment performance, cryogenic service approvals, and updates to AAR Manual M-1002 requirements—highlighting the industry’s continued emphasis on safety, compliance, and standardization.

In addition to technical discussions, the committee addressed new business items and ongoing industry challenges, including equipment recalls, regulatory changes in North America, and improvements to data tracking systems like UMLER.  Overall, the April TCC meeting demonstrated the industry’s proactive approach to improving tank car integrity, operational efficiency, and safety across the rail network, while setting the stage for continued progress in upcoming meetings later in 2026. As always please reach out to PFL for further details on what was discussed.  David Cohen and Brian Baker were there representing PFL

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,080 from 29,206 which was a decrease of -126 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were mixed. CN’s shipments were lower by 17.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by 15.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments also mixed. The BN had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -12.0%. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +11.0% week-over-week.

We Are Watching Hormuz

Hormuz opened, then closed, then closed harder, all inside 48 hours. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi declared the strait open to commercial traffic last Friday afternoon via X. Markets crashed within the hour with the second-largest one-day drop since the war began, WTI falling 11.4% to $83.85 and Brent 9% to $90.38. Iran’s IRGC reimposed restrictions last Saturday, citing “repeated breaches of trust” by the US on the port blockade, and by Sunday chief negotiator Qalibaf told Iranian state TV that “it is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot.”

The walkback walked back. The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports is in full force, forcing 23 ships to turn around over the weekend according to CENTCOM. The ten-day US-Iran truce expires this Tuesday, April 21. Over the weekend, Trump posted that Iran had “decided to fire bullets” in the strait and threatened to “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran” if talks fail, while senior national security officials including the Defense Secretary, CIA Director, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs cycled through the White House last Saturday.

The IEA’s monthly oil market report last Tuesday flipped the agency’s 2026 outlook on its head. The Paris-based agency now projects world oil supply will fall 1.5 million bpd this year, calling it the largest oil supply shock in history. That is a reversal from last month’s forecast of 1.1 million bpd of supply growth. The IEA also lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast to a contraction of 80,000 bpd, from a 640,000 bpd rise in March. The IMF separately warned that restoring a meaningful portion of disrupted Mideast Gulf oil and gas output could take up to two years.

The demand response in North America is already visible. US crude net imports fell to just 66,000 bpd in the week ended April 10, the lowest in weekly data going back to 2001, as export loadings surged to 5.23 million bpd on strong Asian and European pulls. Asia-Pacific refiners have bought between 50 and 70 million barrels of May-loading US crude, with Japan alone taking roughly 30 million. Aframax rates for Vancouver loadings hit record highs on April 13 at $36.20 per ton, as Asian buyers turn to Western Canada, Alaska, and Latin America to replace lost Mideast Gulf barrels. Trans Mountain waterborne exports hit a four-month high of 457,000 bpd in March, and WTI is now landing in Asia at a $26.40 premium to Dubai, more economical than Abu Dhabi’s Murban at a $29.59 premium.

For tank car owners, the oil price whipsaw does not change the structural reality of the North American crude-by-rail fleet. Available crude tank cars are scarce, new builds run twelve to twenty-four months from order to delivery, and any commitment to unit train service requires a minimum five-year lease plus a five-year take-or-pay with the carrier. Crews and locomotives are not sitting in reserve. Whether Hormuz reopens on Tuesday or stays shut through a second round of talks, neither outcome calls new crude cars into service. California remains the canary given CARB specifications and the roughly 30 to 35 percent loss of in-state refining capacity since 2020. Marine insurance for vessels still willing to transit Hormuz is running roughly ten times pre-war prices. Stay tuned to PFL this story is changing by the minute.

We Are Watching the Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

The Liberals won a majority in government on Monday of last week. Three by-election wins in two Toronto ridings and Terrebonne, Quebec, combined with five earlier floor crossings, gave Prime Minister Mark Carney 174 of 343 seats in the House of Commons. Parliament can sit until October 2029 without a no confidence vote. The Conservatives remain the official opposition at 140 seats.

Carney put his new authority to work last Tuesday, meeting Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew on Parliament Hill and signing a Canada-Manitoba Co-operation Agreement on Environmental and Impact Assessment, applying a “one project, one review” framework to major Manitoba infrastructure. The flagship project is Port of Churchill Plus, which includes an all-weather road, rail line upgrades, a new energy corridor, and strengthened ice-breaking capacity. Federal money is moving, with $500,000 already provided to the Manitoba Crown Indigenous Corporation and $40 million over three years committed for Indigenous engagement on Major Projects Office files.

Kinew is carrying the rail and pipeline part of the messaging. He has openly said that the northern Manitoba trade corridor could include a pipeline to ship Western Canadian energy to Hudson Bay for export to Europe and India. “As the war in Iran drives up energy costs and destabilizes global supply chains, the importance of Churchill cannot be overstated,” Kinew said in a news release. That is a striking endorsement of pipeline economics from a left-leaning premier, and more direct than anything the Prime Minister himself has said.

Carney’s contribution was carefully on-message and carefully vague, talking about cutting red tape, trade corridors, and high-paying Canadian careers. He did not commit to a pipeline. Kinew did. If Manitoba is serious about a natural gas line running through the province, right of way is the largest single line item in pipeline construction, and laying two pipes in one trench is the cheapest way to add export capacity for the next decade. That requires a Prime Minister willing to use the word oil.

The more immediate rail question is what a Liberal majority means for Alberta’s planned West Coast crude oil pipeline, which the province plans to file to the federal Major Projects Office this summer. Carney’s government has attached conditions, including a multi-billion-dollar oil sands investment in carbon capture and sequestration tied to the Pathways project. With a four-year majority runway, Ottawa has no tactical reason to soften those conditions.

We Are Watching Alberta

Last Tuesday, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean introduced a bill that puts Premier Danielle Smith’s cabinet at the front of the project review process for industrial proposals over $250 million in capital spending. Cabinet conducts an initial review with no fixed deadline. A deputy ministers’ committee gets 30 days. Once cabinet issues an order, regulators have a four-month clock to assess and issue permits. Projects must come in with completed environmental assessments and First Nations consultations.

The pace target is real. Jean noted that US major projects can be approved in under a month and called Ottawa’s two-year Major Projects Office window too slow, saying federal policy has cost Canada billions in foregone investment. Alberta still plans to file an application for a new West Coast crude oil pipeline this summer to that same federal Major Projects Office, even as the province builds its own faster track.

The pace push came the same week Alberta’s energy CEOs went after the federal industrial carbon price at the BMO CAPP Energy Symposium in Toronto last Tuesday. CAPP head Lisa Baiton said the war in the Middle East has put an exclamation point on the case for Canadian production. Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie called the carbon levy a fallacy as a decarbonization driver. Birchcliff CEO Chris Carlsen said mid-sized producers do not have the scale to make CCS work. Under the Alberta-federal MOU signed late last year, Alberta’s industrial carbon price is set to rise from $95 to $130 per tonne, with Pathways CCS economics tied to that price. The April 1 deadline to finalize that piece passed nearly three weeks ago without resolution.

For rail planning, the practical upshot is a wider gap between what Alberta is willing to approve quickly and what Ottawa can deliver. The faster Alberta moves on an upgrader, refinery, or petrochemical expansion, the longer the lead time it gives car manufacturers and lessors. 

We Are Watching Enbridge

The White House issued nine presidential permits to Enbridge last Wednesday, authorizing cross-border crude and petroleum product pipeline operations. Eight of the nine refresh existing authorizations dating back as far as 1991, covering Enbridge Mainline’s six lines in Pembina County North Dakota, two Mainline export lines from St. Clair Michigan, and the Southern Lights and existing Bakken pipelines. The ninth permit authorizes a newly constructed 24-inch pipeline tied to Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization Phase 2 project.

Phase 2 is the piece worth watching. The project would shift light crude off Enbridge’s Canadian Mainline onto the Bakken Pipeline system and into Dakota Access for delivery to Patoka, Illinois, and onward to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Enbridge has said Phase 2 could add up to 250,000 bpd of capacity as early as late 2028. Phase 1 of the Mainline Optimization program, approved in November 2024 at a cost of US$1.4 billion, adds 150,000 bpd to the Canadian Mainline and 100,000 bpd to Flanagan South, with those volumes targeted for 2027.

The Canadian Mainline is already running hot. In January 2026, Enbridge apportioned heavy and light crude nominations by 13 percent as Alberta production surged into the colder months. Trans Mountain took 457,000 bpd in waterborne exports in March, a four-month high, with 93,000 bpd going to the U.S. West Coast and the rest to Asia. Keystone has operated at 94 to 100 percent utilization through the first half of 2026. Phase 2 is a multi-year pull-forward for Canadian crude egress and a direct substitute for the remaining crude-by-rail volumes out of Western Canada.

The Bakken angle is separate. Line 26 currently flows 145,000 bpd northbound from North Dakota to Cromer, Manitoba and into the Enbridge Mainline system. A southbound reversal, paired with a new 24-inch border crossing, would create a direct southbound path through DAPL to the USGC. Bakken barrels moving to tidewater via pipeline is a structural negative for unit-train crude out of North Dakota, and a further tailwind for USGC export terminals.

For PFL customers operating crude tank car fleets, the announcement does not move immediate volumes. The first capacity additions are twelve to twenty-four months out and Phase 2 another year beyond. Lease decisions being made now on DOT-117 cars should price in a tighter residual crude-by-rail market by 2028, and that is the renewal conversation PFL is having with fleet operators this quarter. 

We Are Watching Fuel Surcharges

Every Class I railroad is raising fuel surcharges in May as the Iran war diesel spike works through mileage-based formulas that reference the EIA’s monthly on-highway diesel average. Union Pacific’s May surcharge rises to 57 cents per mile, up 73 percent from 33 cents in April. CSX goes to 74 cents per mile, up from 44 cents.

The lag explains the magnitude. UP’s April surcharge referenced the February on-highway diesel price of $3.72 per gallon, before the war spike. On-highway diesel averaged $4.92 per gallon in March, up 40 percent from January’s $3.52. During the second week of April, it averaged $5.61. The full lag from the March and April moves will not reach shipper invoices until June and July. U.S. retail diesel averaged $5.608 per gallon in the week ended April 13, up about $1.80 per gallon since the week before the war began on February 23.

Shippers are not taking it quietly. The Alliance for Chemical Distribution petitioned the Surface Transportation Board in March to monitor surcharges on chlorine and other chemical shipments, citing the COVID-19 period and the 2024 rail labor disruption as examples of carriers leveraging external events into permanent fee structures. The STB said on March 20 it would ensure carriers engage in reasonable rules and practices on fuel surcharges and reiterated the 20-day notice requirement. Chlor-alkali producers Westlake and Olin have added their own fuel surcharges effective April 1 on rail and truck shipments.

For PFL customers, the fuel surcharge is an unavoidable layer on top of every loaded mile. The most exposed lanes are long-haul manifest moves in commodities that already carry thin margins, including chemicals, fertilizer, plastics, and ethanol. Tank car lease rates themselves have been steady, with non-pressurized CPC-1232 cars on 1-to-5-year terms at $800 per month and DOT-117s at $1,000. The fuel surcharge piece is what will hit the monthly invoice through Q2 and into Q3. Where alternative routings exist on a given lane, PFL can help shippers model the carrier-by-carrier differential before the May schedules take effect. 

We Are Watching Schedule 5.8

Four shipper trade associations filed a joint motion with the Surface Transportation Board last Tuesday asking the agency to reclassify a key section of the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger agreement from “Highly Confidential” to public. The filing came from the Alliance for Chemical Distribution, the American Chemistry Council, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, and The Fertilizer Institute. Those four groups cover virtually every bulk shipper category, PFL advises.

The section in question is Schedule 5.8, which defines what qualifies as a “Materially Burdensome Regulatory Condition” under the merger agreement. That definition is the trigger that would let UP walk away from the $250 billion-plus transaction and pay Norfolk Southern a $2.5 billion breakup fee. In other words, Schedule 5.8 is where UP has listed the regulatory concessions it is not willing to accept. The shipper groups argue the document contains no trade secrets, rates, costs, or shipper-identifying data, and therefore does not qualify as confidential under the protective order the STB entered in August 2025.

The STB rejected UP and NS’s original December 19 merger application on January 16 as incomplete, specifically flagging the missing Schedule 5.8 as one of the deficiencies. UP and NS are scheduled to refile their revised application on April 30, ten days after this report publishes. Whether Schedule 5.8 is made public or kept sealed will shape what shippers, competing railroads, and state attorneys general can see and contest during the comment window that follows.

For rail car interests, this is not background noise. The conditions UP has flagged as deal-breakers are effectively its map of where it expects regulatory fights, which means they are also a map of where service commitments, gateway access, interchange rules, and rate remedies are most likely to be negotiated. Chemical, petrochemical, and fertilizer shippers pushing for disclosure are doing so because they want to know, before comment period closes, whether the combined carrier is willing to absorb conditions that protect their interests or intends to walk if those conditions are imposed.

We Are Watching Permian NGL

Enterprise Products Partners hosted its annual supply appraisal forecast call last Tuesday and raised its five-year outlook for Permian NGL production. The company now expects Permian NGLs from natural gas processing to grow 24 percent from 2025 levels to 4.7 million bpd by 2030, 200,000 bpd above the April 2025 outlook. Associated natural gas is projected to grow 23 percent to 35.4 bcf per day over the same period. The 2030 crude forecast was trimmed.

The basin is getting gassier. Enterprise now projects NGL and natural gas output to outpace crude production by 60%across the forecast horizon, up from a 40% gap in last year’s view. Wells are producing higher gas-to-oil ratios as operators step into new horizons and refine completion techniques. That is a structural shift in what the Permian pulls out of the ground, not a cyclical move. Total U.S. NGL production was trimmed by 100,000 bpd to 9.0 million bpd in 2030, which means the Permian is taking share from other basins, rather than riding a general tide.

The Iran war is adding near-term demand pull. Enterprise executives said on the call that NGL demand is stronger for longer because of the supply constraints that emerged over the last six to seven weeks, and that LPG export capacity is sufficient to handle expected volume growth for the foreseeable future. LPG exports out of the U.S. Gulf Coast are the primary channel for moving Permian propane and butane to Asian and European buyers displaced by the Hormuz disruption.

For rail, the read is mixed but net positive on the non-crude side. Permian NGL takeaway is primarily a pipeline story, with Enterprise’s Bahia line, Mont Belvieu fractionation, and Neches River export terminal absorbing most of the physical volume growth. But pressurized LPG cars still matter for inland distribution, fractionation redistribution, and any lane where pipeline capacity falls short. Pressurized tank car lease rates on one to five year terms are at $1,200 per month and utilization is holding firm. 

We Are Watching Union Pacific and Rocky Mountain Steel

This week, Union Pacific signed a seven-year rail supply agreement with Rocky Mountain Steel Mills, the only remaining dedicated steel rail production mill in the United States.

The Pueblo, Colorado facility has supplied rail to Union Pacific since the early 1890s. The new long-term contract extends that relationship and signals that UP is planning for a significantly larger network, UP CEO Jim Vena directly linked the deal to the proposed Norfolk Southern merger, noting the partnership becomes more important as the railroad prepares to expand to a coast-to-coast system.

The investment happening in Pueblo right now we thought was interesting. Rocky Mountain Steel is putting more than $1 billion into a new long-rail mill at the site, expected to begin operations later this year. The mill will produce 328-foot rail sections versus the traditional 80-foot sections used today, resulting in approximately 80% fewer welds along the track. Fewer welds mean fewer failure points, lower maintenance costs, and better ride quality. The mill will be powered by a dedicated 1,800-acre solar farm, making it the world’s largest solar-powered steel mill when complete.

The deal also resolved an existing legal dispute: Union Pacific withdrew a previously filed lawsuit against Rocky Mountain Steel in Nebraska as part of the agreement. Steel at the Pueblo facility is produced by United Steelworkers union members.

A seven-year domestic rail supply agreement covering what may become a 50,000-mile transcontinental network is not routine procurement. In a market where steel tariffs are in effect and domestic manufacturing is a political priority, locking in a long-term U.S.-only supply deal is both strategically and politically smart. It is also a clear statement that Union Pacific is building for the long term regardless of how the merger review unfolds.

We are watching Class 1 Industrial Headcount

Class I railroads employed 115,080 workers in the United States in March 2026, a 0.23% increase from February 2026’s count of 114,811 but a -3.75% year-over-year decrease from March 2025’s total of 119,562, according to Surface Transportation Board data. 

Three of the six employment categories posted month-over-month increases between February and March 2026. These were Professional and Administrative, up 0.62% to 8,887 workers; Maintenance of Way and Structures, which increased 0.64% to 28,343 workers; and Transportation (train and engine), which increased 0.51% to 48,860 workers.

The categories that posted month-over-month decreases were Executives, officials, and staff assistants, down -0.41% to 8,079 workers; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -0.72% to 16,234 workers; and Transportation (other than train and engine), down -1.31% to 4,677 workers.

Year-over-year, only one category posted an employment gain: Executives, officials, and staff assistants, up 2.76%.

Categories that registered year-over-year decreases in March 2026 were Professional and Administrative, down -7.96%; Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -0.53%; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -4.79%; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -7.40%; and Transportation (train and engine), down -5.03%.

We are watching Key Economic Indicators

Producer Price Index

In March 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.2% month-over-month, easing further from the 0.3% increase in February and indicating a gradual moderation in upstream price pressures. Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) increased 0.2% month over month, in line with February’s pace. The monthly increase was driven primarily by services, which rose 0.3%, while goods increased 0.1%. Within goods, food prices were relatively flat, while energy prices were mixed; goods less foods and energy increased 0.2%, suggesting steady but cooling core goods pricing. Within services, trade margins remained firm, while transportation and warehousing posted modest gains, and services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were subdued, pointing to more balanced services inflation.

In March 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% month-over-month, moderating slightly from February’s gain, and was up approximately 2.8% year over year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.3% month-over-month and was up approximately 2.7% year-over-year. Shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly increase. Food prices continued to rise modestly, while energy prices were mixed, contributing to a slightly softer headline figure compared to the prior month.

Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing accounts for approximately 75% of total output. Manufacturing output in March declined 0.10% from February 2026, following a 0.20% increase in February.

Capacity utilization is a measure of how fully firms are using machinery and equipment. Capacity utilization decreased by 0.48 percentage points from February in March. 

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 70, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Ohio. For use in Diesel service. Period: 3 months.
• 100, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 20, 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in Various. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 106, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 20, 31.8K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 86, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.
• 117, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 4-20-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending April 4, 2026 came in at 219,000, versus the adjusted number of 203,000 people from the week prior, up 16,000 people week-over-week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,794,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,832,000 people from the week prior, down 38,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed mixed on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -269.23 points (-0.56%), closing out the week at 47,916.57, up 1,411.97 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -7.77 points (-0.11%), and closed out the week at 6,816.89, up 234.20 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 80.48 points (0.35%), and closed out the week at 22,902.89, up 1,023.71 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 47,873 this morning, down 256 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -1.30 per barrel (-1.3%), to close at $96.57 on Friday of last week, and down $14.97 week-over-week. Brent crude closed down -0.72 per barrel (-0.8%), to close at $95.20, and down $13.83 week-over-week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.1 million barrels week-over-week. At 464.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 2% above the five-year average for this time of year.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for May delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$15.55 below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$79.61 per barrel.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 600,000 barrels week-over-week and are 71% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 76.2 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 3.8 cents per gallon week-over-week, but  down 11.8 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending April 3, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day during the week ending April 3, 2026, a decrease of 130,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day, 9.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 571,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 152,000 barrels per day during the week ending April 3, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.149 million barrels per day during the week ending April 3, 2026, an increase of 628,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.973 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending April 3, 2026, which was 129,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $104.45 this morning, up $7.88 from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending April 8, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-1.09%) in week 15, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending April 8, 2026 were 336,537, up (+0.81%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 328,975, down (-2.97%) year over year. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-12.67%). The largest increase was Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+13.21%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+1.42%), with the largest decrease coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (-6.78%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+24.34%). NS’s total volumes were down (-1.80%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+19.68%), while the largest decrease came from Nonmetallic Minerals (-9.92%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+3.56%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+23.21%), while the largest decrease came from Motor Vehicles and Parts (-10.74%). UP’s total volumes were down (-1.74%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+36.92%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-8.97%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-4.43%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+59.89%), while the largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-25.73%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-19.99%), with the largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+18.37%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-66.12%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -10 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was down by -3 rigs week-over-week, and down by -38 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 545 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -7 rigs week-over-week and down by -3 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 135 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -41 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We continue to Watch the Strait of Hormuz

The two-week ceasefire that briefly knocked WTI from $119/bl back to $94/bl last Wednesday is now in serious jeopardy. Peace talks held in Islamabad between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiators collapsed Sunday after more than 21 hours at the table. The sticking points were non-negotiable on both sides: Washington demanded Iran give up uranium enrichment and reopen the strait without tolls; Tehran demanded permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all sanctions, and frozen asset releases. Vance left Pakistan saying the U.S. had put its best and final offer on the table. The American delegation departed without leaving anyone behind to continue talks.

Within hours of the talks collapsing, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the U.S. Navy would begin blockading the strait effective immediately, ordering the interdiction of any vessel that had paid Iran a toll for passage and threatening to destroy Iranian mines in the waterway. The U.S. Navy had already sent two guided-missile destroyers through the strait over the weekend for mine-clearing operations, the first American warships to transit since the war began six weeks ago. Iran’s IRGC responded that any military vessel approaching the strait would be treated as a ceasefire violation. The UK announced it is assembling a coalition with France to contribute minesweepers. One complicating wrinkle: Iran has reportedly lost track of some of the mines it planted, meaning even Iran cannot fully reopen the strait quickly regardless of any diplomatic agreement.

Analysts at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy put the current supply shortfall at roughly 7 million barrels of crude and 4 million barrels of product per day not clearing the strait. A U.S. blockade adds Iranian export barrels on top of that. Prices that briefly pulled back on ceasefire hopes are heading higher again. For operators with existing crude and LPG rail capacity already in place in North American corridors, the case for keeping that infrastructure active through this period remains strong. No one is building new crude by rail capacity to chase this spike. The commitment required is five years minimum on both the equipment and the rail contracts, and the memories of the last CBR run are fresh. What matters is whether the cars and contracts already in place are working.

We Are Watching Crude Oil in Canada

Multiple Canadian crude grades hit all-time premium records last week as U.S. West Coast refiners scrambled to replace Middle Eastern medium sour supply they can no longer reliably source. Medium sweet Syncrude at Edmonton surged to $19.85-$20/bl over May CMA Nymex, a new record. Canadian light sweet Mixed Sweet at Edmonton reached $12-$12.65/bl over the benchmark, also a record. Light Sour Blend at Cromer, Manitoba, hit $7-$9.25/bl, topping its previous record set just nine days earlier on April 1. Canadian condensate at Fort Saskatchewan traded around $10.80/bl premium. The moves span every grade on the slate and are breaking records set just days earlier. The disruption in the Persian Gulf is repricing Canadian crude.

West Coast refiners built their crude slates around Middle Eastern medium sour grades that are now largely inaccessible. Competing alternatives like Guyanese and Brazilian medium grades have become expensive because European and Asian buyers are bidding them up simultaneously. That leaves Canadian barrels, and Trans Mountain is running close to capacity. The U.S. Gulf Coast sweet 3-2-1 crack spread averaged $35/bl in the first week of April, up from $20/bl a year earlier, which means refiners can absorb elevated feedstock costs and still print acceptable margins. Canadian heavy crude WCS at Hardisty is a different story, closing at $79.61/bl last for may delivery. The light grade premium story and the heavy grade discount story are running simultaneously, and they tell you a lot about what refiners actually need right now.

For CBR operators, Trans Mountain running near capacity on the light grade story is the key signal. Pipeline space fills first; rail handles the overflow and the spot volumes. The unit train rate from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast was $15.40/bl last week, and at current WCS prices and crack spreads, economics for moving incremental barrels by rail are closing. The Bakken unit train to Philadelphia is roughly at $9.75/bl. PFL is tracking crude movement economics across all corridors as the Hormuz situation evolves.

We continue to watch Fertilizer

The Strait of Hormuz closure landed at the worst possible moment for the fertilizer market. The Middle East accounts for roughly a third of all seaborne fertilizer trade and close to half of global urea exports. With traffic through the strait collapsed, prices for nitrogen fertilizers have moved sharply: urea is up approximately 50% since the war began in late February, anhydrous ammonia up around 20%. Saudi Arabia, the third-largest exporter of DAP and MAP phosphate fertilizers, remains effectively stranded behind the closure, along with ammonia and sulfur supplies from Qatar and Iran. This is hitting the market at spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, the worst possible timing for farmers already working with compressed margins.

Anhydrous ammonia moves almost exclusively by rail or pipeline in North America, with pressurized tank cars the primary mode for getting NH3 from production and import terminals to agricultural distribution points. Spring is already peak season for AA cars; a 20% price spike on top of tight supply means every available car is working. North American producers, particularly Nutrien and CF Industries, are in strong shape with domestic supply largely insulated from the Hormuz disruption. Potash flowing south from Saskatchewan still represents 90% of U.S. imports and is largely unaffected by the conflict. But dry fertilizer movements in covered hoppers and pressurized cars for ammonia and LPG-derived feedstocks are all seeing elevated demand at the same time.

Farmers caught in the middle are making hard calls. Some are reportedly shifting acreage from corn to soybeans to reduce nitrogen application requirements. If that trend holds, it has downstream implications for ethanol demand and corn carloads later in the season. The full supply chain consequence of the Hormuz closure will not be visible in planting data for months yet, but rail car demand for fertilizer inputs is running hot right now. Stay tuned to PFL for further details, we are watching this one closely. 

We Are Watching Class 1 Performance

The BN seems to be not performing well.  As it relates to crude, BNSF dwell time increased 116% versus the prior four-week period, rising from 9.3 hours to 20.1 hours. Loaded crude cars not moved in more than 48 hours jumped 313%, from an average of 5.4 cars to 22.3. Trains held short more than doubled. Speed slipped 4.6%. For ethanol, loaded cars not moving more than 48 hours rose 85.7%, from 121.4 to 225.5 cars on average. These are not subtle shifts. This is a network that absorbed a meaningful service degradation across both commodity types over a single four-week window.

Context matters here. BNSF is also investing heavily, with a $3.6 billion 2026 capital plan covering over 400 miles of rail replacement and 2.5 million tie replacements across the network. Track work and maintenance activity during this period is the most likely driver of the congestion spike rather than a structural collapse in operating practice. CPKC, by contrast, improved across several crude metrics in the same period, and CSX showed crude dwell and cars-not-moving improving. Union Pacific’s loaded crude cars not moved more than 48 hours rose 88.5%, so BNSF is not alone, but the scale of the BNSF numbers stands out. Total tank cars on line across all six Class I carriers rose slightly to 254,530 from 252,173 four weeks prior, a 0.9% increase, which suggests fleet utilization remains firm.

For shippers moving crude or ethanol on BNSF, particularly unit trains where dwell and car velocity directly affect return cycles, this is a period that warrants close attention. Cars sitting at terminals are not turning, and slower turns mean you effectively need more cars in your fleet to maintain the same throughput. PFL is tracking network performance and can help customers assess whether their current fleet size is adequate, given current velocity data. 

We Are Watching the Railway Safety Act

Last week the NTSB released its preliminary report on the March 18 Union Pacific derailment near Richmond, Texas. The train, running westbound from Houston to Eagle Pass and measuring over 10,000 feet long, derailed 24 cars on the Glidden Subdivision. Of those, 18 were tank cars carrying hazardous materials. Seven tank cars breached, collectively releasing approximately 120,000 gallons of ethanol. Two additional tank cars of liquified petroleum gas were among the derailed equipment, but did not breach. No injuries were reported, and UP assessed damages at approximately $3.6 million. The preliminary report notes clear weather and no precipitation at the time of the incident.

The timing of the report is notable. The bipartisan Railway Safety Act of 2026 was introduced in the U.S. Senate last month and is working through the legislative process. The bill includes strengthened tank car standards, enhanced requirements for high-hazard trains, a mandatory minimum of two FRA-certified crew members on every freight train, new wayside defect detection standards, and expanded emergency response planning requirements for hazmat movements. It also takes another run at the DOT-111 and CPC-1232 phase-out question, which has been contested for years. CPC-1232 lease rates are currently $800 per car per month for 1-5 year term, and any accelerated phase-out mandate would reshape the secondary market for those cars materially.  Quite a few shippers have already scrapped or retrofitted many of these cars  to 117R’s, but there are still quite a few out there.

Agricultural shippers have already raised concerns with Congress about provisions they say could limit network flexibility, including train length restrictions and mandatory manual inspection requirements that could slow the adoption of automated inspection technology. That tension, between safety advocates pushing for faster regulatory action and shippers worried about operational constraints, will define the legislative debate. The Richmond derailment, while contained and without injuries, gives advocates on both sides’ fresh material. PFL is monitoring the Railway Safety Act’s progress and its potential implications for tank car fleet composition and lease economics. 

We Are Watching Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

The Carney government and Alberta missed the April 1 MOU deadline on not one item, but two. The November memorandum of understanding between Ottawa and Premier Danielle Smith set April 1 as the target for finalizing carbon pricing equivalency and a trilateral agreement with the Oilsands Alliance on the Pathways carbon capture project. Neither is done. Carney told reporters he felt good about the progress. Smith said she hoped to land the carbon pricing deal in the next few days and complete the Pathways agreement before the end of April. Meanwhile, Syncrude was trading at $20/bl over benchmark, the crack spread on the U.S. Gulf Coast averaged $35/bl, and the world was offering Canada a window to move more of its oil to markets that desperately want it.

The Pathways project is the centrepiece of the pipeline deal: a carbon capture network linking over 20 oilsands facilities to underground storage near Cold Lake. Carney has called it a necessary condition for approving a new bitumen pipeline. But without the carbon pricing agreement finalized, the Oilsands Alliance will not sign the Pathways MOU, and without Pathways, the pipeline file does not advance. Smith has set a July 1 internal deadline to submit the new pipeline proposal to the federal Major Projects Office, though she has said it could come earlier. British Columbia has not been formally engaged on a pipeline route through its territory, and B.C. Premier David Eby has made his position clear on the matter. What Carney has managed to produce is a political framework with deadlines that keep slipping and dependencies that stack on top of each other.

A new line to B.C. tidewater is years away under the best-case scenario, and the Hormuz disruption has just demonstrated that price spikes happen faster than infrastructure gets built. Rail is not a consolation prize for producers who cannot get pipeline space. It is the flexible egress that keeps Alberta crude moving when the market moves faster than Ottawa can negotiate. Looks to us it: is the same old, same old.

Some one needs to inform the Canadian Prime Minister that the world is not getting rid of crude oil anytime soon – he has the responsibility to provide this resource to the free world. Every barrel of crude oil tells a story. We thought we should share the below visual with you: 

We Are Watching Bridger

Last week, Bridger Pipeline released details on a proposed crude oil pipeline project that would move barrels from the U.S.-Canada border to Wyoming, and the scale of what is being proposed deserves a close look. The proposed 36-inch line would span approximately 647 miles, starting in Phillips County, Montana, crossing eastern Montana, and terminating at the Guernsey hub in Wyoming. Initial capacity is designed at 550,000 barrels per day, expandable to 1.13 million barrels per day with additional pump stations. Much of the route runs parallel to existing pipeline corridors, and the project may integrate assets from the defunct Keystone XL. The application also shows potential tie-ins to the Bakken shale oil field in North Dakota, giving regional producers a new competitive egress option south to one of the most connected crude hubs in the country.

The project cost has been pegged at $4.5 million per mile for the 435 miles planned in Montana, totaling approximately $1.96 billion for that segment alone. Applying the same rate across the full 647-mile length puts total project cost closer to $2.9 billion. On the Canadian side, South Bow’s proposed Prairie Connector project would move crude from Hardisty, Alberta, to the U.S. border using partially built Keystone XL assets. South Bow closed an open season for 450,000 b/d of binding long-term commitments last week. The regulatory clock is now running on Bridger’s side: the Bureau of Land Management and Montana Department of Environmental Quality are conducting public scoping through May 1, with in-person meetings held last week in Glasgow and Miles City. A final environmental decision is targeted for May 2027, with construction to follow if approved.

That timeline is the key takeaway for rail shippers. A final federal decision in May 2027 means construction starting no earlier than mid-to-late 2027 at best, and construction is estimated at 12-18 months. The line is not moving a barrel before late 2028 or early 2029 under an optimistic scenario. Crude-by-rail out of Montana and the Bakken remains the only flexible egress option through the entire permitting and construction window. The Guernsey hub connection is worth watching longer term. Strong downstream pipeline access to Cushing and beyond means a line of this capacity would meaningfully reshape crude flow patterns across the northern Rockies and Midwest when it eventually comes online. That day is years away. Call PFL at 239-390-2885 if you are moving crude by rail in the Montana or Bakken corridor and want to talk through fleet positioning as this project develops.

We Are Watching New Jersey 

Last week the New Jersey Department of Transportation awarded 11 grants totaling $26.3 million through its Rail Freight Assistance Program for fiscal year 2026. The program covers up to 90% of eligible project costs, with recipients required to maintain freight service on improved lines for at least 10 years after completion. Projects are selected competitively, with emphasis on port commerce connectivity, closing gaps in freight rail access to New Jersey’s port facilities, and upgrading track to a 286,000-pound load-carrying capacity. New Jersey has invested nearly $250 million in its freight rail network through this program over the past eight years. Last week’s round continues that commitment.

The 286,000-pound load standard matters more than the headline number. Short line track that cannot handle that load is off-limits for a large portion of today’s tank car and covered hopper fleet. Every mile upgraded to that standard opens new routing options and makes rail a viable competitor to truck for shippers who currently have no practical alternative. New Jersey sits at the center of one of the busiest freight corridors in North America. The Port of Newark and Port Elizabeth handle more container volume than any other East Coast port complex, and the short line network connecting those ports to inland chemical, food, and consumer goods manufacturers is critical infrastructure. When that network deteriorates, shippers lose options. These upgrades add them back.

This is the kind of steady, unglamorous infrastructure work that does not make headlines the way a pipeline announcement does, but it is exactly what keeps short line rail viable as a competitive alternative to trucks for regional shippers. PFL serves shippers across the Northeast corridor and monitors network capacity as these upgrades come online.

 We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management releases two PMI reports – one covering manufacturing and the other covering services. These reports are based on surveys of supply managers across the country and track changes in business activity. A reading above 50% on the index indicates expansion, while a reading below 50% signifies contraction, with a faster pace of change the farther the reading is from 50.

The Manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 52.7%, slightly above February’s 52.4% and marking the third consecutive month in expansion territory following an extended period of contraction.

On the Services PMI side, the most recent reading is 54.0% (March 2026), down from 56.1% in February but still indicating solid expansion in the services sector, albeit at a slower pace.

Consumer Spending

In February 2026, total consumer spending in the U.S. rose by a preliminary 0.4% month-over-month. Adjusted for inflation, the increase was approximately 0.2%, reflecting more modest real growth compared to the strong gains seen earlier in the year. Spending on services increased by 0.6% (not adjusted for inflation), continuing to lead overall consumption, while spending on goods rose by 0.2%, indicating more subdued demand in goods-related categories important for transportation providers like railroads.

Retail sales, which account for around 25% of consumer spending, increased by 0.6% in February, following a softer January reading. Economists suggest that while consumer spending remains resilient, higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions are beginning to temper the pace of growth compared to prior periods.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 70, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Ohio. For use in Diesel service. Period: 3 months.
• 100, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.
• 20, 117J Tanks located off of NS, CSX, CN, or CPKC in Various. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year. Need gauge rods.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 106, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 20, 31.8K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 86, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.
• 117, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 4-13-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending March 28, 2026 came in at 202,000, versus the adjusted number of 211,000 people from the week prior, down 9,000 people week-over-week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,841,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,816,000 people from the week prior, up 25,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed mixed on Thursday of last week, but higher week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Thursday of last week, down -61.14 points (-0.13%), closing out the week at 46,504.60, up 1,337.96 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday of last week, up +7.37 points (0.11%), and closed out the week at 6,582.69, up +213.84 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Thursday of last week, up 38.23 points (0.18%), and closed out the week at 21,879.18, up +930.82 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 46,731 this morning, down 1 point from last Thursday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday of last week and mixed week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $11.42 per barrel (11.4%), to close at $111.54 on Thursday of last week, and up $11.90 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $7.87 per barrel (7.8%), to close at $109.03, but down $3.54 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for May delivery settled on Thursday of last week at US$14.50  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$80.66 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.5 million barrels week-over-week. At 461.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 0.1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 600,000 barrels week-over-week and are 4% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 71% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 72.4 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, flat week-over-week, but down 18.1 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending March 27, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day during the week ending March 27, 2026, a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day, 12.8% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 502,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 117,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 27, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.521 million barrels per day during the week ending March 27, 2026, an increase of 199,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.794 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week ending March 27, 2026, which was 220,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $111.49 this morning, down 5 cents from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending April 1, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-1.22%) in week 14, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending April 1, 2026 were 344,274, down (-1.05%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 339,845, down (-1.39%) year over year. 6 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-14.84%). The largest increase was Other (+19.69%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+4.99%), with the largest decrease coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (-12.10%), while the largest increase came from Other (+32.61%). NS’s total volumes were down (-0.27%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+34.99%), while the largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-8.37%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+1.27%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+6.35%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-20.53%). UP’s total volumes were down (-1.92%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+21.23%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-8.71%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-4.36%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+27.47%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-20.53%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-28.65%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-69.66%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -6 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was up by +5 rigs week-over-week, but down by -42 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 548 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -11 rigs week-over-week and down by -11 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 142 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -53 rigs collectively. 

International rig count which is reported monthly was down by -54 rigs month-over-month and down by -37 rigs year-over-year. Internationally there are 1058 active rigs.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,367 from 29,853 which was a decrease of -486 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were lower. CN’s shipments were lower by 0.5% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were lower by -1.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly lower. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -4.0%. The BN was the sole gainer and was up by +10.0% week-over-week.

We Are Watching Hormuz

Five weeks in, the market has stopped waiting for a quick resolution. WTI spot prices at the Texas coast surged to levels not seen since late 2022 last week, with NYMEX futures holding above $100 per barrel for the first time in years. The average American crossed $4 per gallon at the pump for the first time in nearly four years. The broader Brent complex is trading in the low $110s. Every lever the Trump Administration has pulled, including an authorized drawdown of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a 60-day Jones Act waiver to ease domestic crude movements, and an emergency E15 fuel waiver, does not do anything that would solve the problem of a long term closure of the Strait.

Last week’s Iran-Oman announcement that the two countries are drafting a “monitoring protocol” for strait transit briefly rallied markets, which tells you more about how desperately traders want a resolution than about actual progress. What Iran announced is a framework for controlling who passes, not a reopening. The IRGC checkpoint near Larak Island has been rerouting permitted vessels through a longer, supervised corridor since mid-March. As of last Thursday, fewer than 15 vessels per day were transiting openly, down from roughly 138 pre-war. The week brought two more attacks: an Iranian drone struck the fully loaded Kuwaiti VLCC Al Salmi at anchor off Dubai last Tuesday, and a Qatar Energy tanker took two Iranian cruise missiles north of Ras Laffan last Wednesday. Trump told allies to get their own oil. OPEC+ agreed ‌on Sunday to raise its oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the U.S. – Israeli war with Iran.  The President will have a press conference at 1:00 PM today and threatened over the weekend to blow up some power plants and bridges tomorrow if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz.

The Western Canadian Select (WCS) – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) differential is the story for crude by rail right now. It has blown out to levels that put incremental rail economics firmly in the black for Canadian heavy crude that cannot access pipeline capacity, with the unit train rate from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast leaving meaningful headroom at current differentials. Loading and readily available cars and producers reluctant to commit to long term lease rates seems to be the why we are not seeing immediate crude by rail movements. Asia-Pacific refiners scrambling to replace disrupted Mideast grades are bidding aggressively for WTI at the Texas coast, pushing physical prices well above futures and widening the spread further. The Asian destination share of US April crude export cargoes is approaching 50%, up from 32% in March.

The SPR drawdown continues in parallel. Last week the DOE launched a second round seeking bids on 10 million barrels of sour crude from the Bryan Mound site in Texas, with bids due today. The first round covered 45.2 million barrels. Neither round put a dent in Hormuz, and none of it addresses what sits in the ground in western Canada, waiting on pipeline capacity that Ottawa has spent years failing to approve.

We Are Watching the Fertilizer Crunch

Five weeks into the Hormuz closure, the global fertilizer supply chain is approaching a genuine supply emergency, and the North American spring planting window has no slack in its system. The Middle East supplies roughly a fifth of global ammonia trade and nearly half of global seaborne sulfur trade. Most of it is currently trapped. Ammonia prices have risen by approximately $170 per ton since late February, with Middle East FOB levels approaching $650 per ton. Sulfur prices are up nearly a third from pre-war levels, with spot offers reaching their highest since 2008. The supply loss is structural, not merely logistical, and will persist well beyond any ceasefire. Loaded vessels across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain sit anchored in the Gulf waiting for clearance that has not come. The Ras Laffan gas processing complex in Qatar sustained direct damage last week and will operate at reduced levels after the strait reopens. Key production facilities across the region are down not primarily because of physical strikes, but because tankers cannot exit. Replacement supply from Australia, Trinidad, and Algeria is running below what markets had assumed, and new U.S. Gulf ammonia capacity coming online this spring may offset perhaps one million tons of the roughly four million tons of annual Middle East production currently inaccessible, but it will not fill the hole. Prices are now approaching levels where demand destruction at the farm level becomes unavoidable

For North American agriculture, the timing is brutal. Corn belt planting decisions are being made now, and farmers are making them against nitrogen fertilizer prices at generational highs while crop price economics have simultaneously deteriorated. University of Illinois researchers published guidance last week recommending farmers reconsider application rates at current price levels. Rail cars carrying anhydrous ammonia, UAN solution, and dry fertilizers are in peak seasonal demand, and compressed supply windows mean delivery timing matters more than ever. This is not a market where you catch a missed window. PFL works with fertilizer shippers to structure car capacity through seasonal peaks, including the short-term flexibility that a disrupted supply year demands.  PFL’s advice – plant more soya beans if you can!

We Are Watching BP Whiting

The BP Whiting refinery lockout entered its third week last week with no resolution and rising political attention on both sides. Indiana Governor Mike Braun visited workers on the picket line. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro published a commentary calling on BP to settle, arguing that most of the U.S. oil industry has already accepted the pattern contract set by Marathon earlier this season and that a refinery of Whiting’s strategic importance should not be the industry outlier prolonging a labor standoff. BP has not moved.

The Whiting refinery processes 440,000 barrels of crude oil per day and is the largest inland refinery in the United States, supplying gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to the broader Midwest, including the Chicago and Detroit metro areas. A judge last week weighed whether the more than 800 locked-out United Steelworkers Local 7-1 members could be ordered back to work; no ruling has been issued. The dispute centers on BP’s demand to eliminate more than 100 union positions, cut pay across nearly all classifications, and lock in a six-year contract. Workers voted to reject BP’s last, best, and final offer by 98.3% with 94% turnout. The union’s position is direct: a contingency team running a century-old, 440,000 b/d complex cannot sustain that output indefinitely without incident. BP maintains operations have been uninterrupted.

For anyone watching Midwest crude throughput and fuel supply, a prolonged lockout at Whiting is a vulnerability that nobody needs right now. Diesel is trading above $5 per gallon nationally. A production stumble at the Midwest’s largest refinery tightens regional fuel supply at exactly the moment there is no slack to absorb it. The last time BP locked out workers at Whiting was 2015; that dispute ran 101 days. PFL is monitoring and will update readers as court proceedings and negotiations develop.

We Are Watching Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

The November memorandum of understanding between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith set April 1 as the target date for a four point foundational agreement required before a new bitumen pipeline to tidewater can be greenlighted. Two of the four points are done, agreements in principle on methane emissions and project assessment processes. Two are not: an industrial carbon pricing deal between Ottawa and Alberta, and a separate MOU with the Oilsands Alliance, the consortium of major oil sands producers that Carney has explicitly named as a necessary condition for any new pipeline. The April 1 deadline has come and gone.

Last week Carney told reporters in Quebec that he feels good about the progress and wants to get it right. Smith says she hopes to have the carbon pricing deal wrapped in the next few days and the Alliance agreement done before the end of April. Alberta has given itself a July 1 deadline to submit a pipeline application to Ottawa’s Major Projects Office. This is a Left-Wing government running out of runway on a deal it signed with Alberta with great fanfare five months ago. Getting it right is not a construction timeline. Getting it right is a political strategy. And the MOU itself requires that any new pipeline cannot begin transmitting bitumen until the first phase of a major carbon capture project is operational, a project for which the major oil sands companies have not yet made a final investment decision on because of the Federal government itself.

The private sector is not waiting. South Bow’s open season for the Prairie Connector pipeline closed last Monday, soliciting binding long-term commitments for 450,000 barrels per day of capacity from Hardisty, Alberta, to Cushing, Oklahoma, and Gulf coast destinations. Smith suggested the project could eventually scale to 750,000 b/d. South Bow has 60 days to review binding commercial interest. Separately, privately held Bridger Pipeline has filed plans for a competing 550,000 b/d southbound line through Montana. Together, these two proposals represent more than 1.2 million barrels per day of potential new capacity being driven by private capital and commercial logic while Ottawa negotiates carbon pricing. Hormuz has made the case that Alberta cannot afford to wait on Ottawa and Carney. Alberta is going to hit a wall on pipeline timelines regardless of what happens in Ottawa, and the window to act is right now.

In other left wing Carney news, the Government of Canada started buying guns back off their residents on April 1, 2026 under a voluntary program to turn them in.  If you don’t turn them in, they are going to come to your door and collect them according to certain media outlets and the Government of Canada itself.  Alberta and Saskatchewan are not participating as well as certain police forces that are not agreeing to cooperate. Canada does not have the second amendment right – we will have to see how this plays out.

We Are Watching Ethanol

The EPA issued an emergency Reid Vapor Pressure waiver last week that takes effect May 1, allowing nationwide sales of E15 gasoline and temporarily lifting the summer blend restrictions that normally apply across roughly half the country through September. The agency also suspended federal enforcement of state boutique fuel requirements, effectively creating a single national gasoline pool with 9% to 15% ethanol content. The waiver is explicitly tied to the Iran conflict and the run-up in pump prices. As of last week, E15 was averaging 28 cents per gallon below regular gasoline at stations where it is available, an 8.6% discount at the pump. The Renewable Fuels Association expects the initial May 20 expiration to be extended well into summer.

California’s own market is shifting at the same time. Data published last month showed that Q3 2025 marked the first quarterly deficit in California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit bank in years, reversing a persistent surplus that had kept LCFS credit prices low. With the credit bank now drawing down rather than building, the economics improve from two directions at once: recovering LCFS credit values on rail-delivered Midwest ethanol into California, and an E15-driven demand lift broadening the national market for Midwest production. California imports the substantial majority of its Ethanol by unit train, and a tightening LCFS market means the credit premium supporting those deliveries is recovering. The E15 waiver drives demand broadly; LCFS tightening drives demand specifically into California. Both move ethanol rail volumes in the same direction.

Ethanol at Chicago closed at $2.00 per gallon on Thursday of last week, with unit train rates from Omaha to the California valleys running around 27.7 cents per gallon.  A rising LCFS credit market is good for ethanol, renewable diesel, biodiesel and rail.  But bad for anyone that lives in California through higher fuel costs.  PFL helps ethanol shippers structure car capacity across the Midwest-to-West-Coast corridor, including unit train solutions that keep velocity up and delivered cost per gallon competitive.

We Are Watching the UP and the NS

The proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, filed with the Surface Transportation Board in December, drew a sharp response last week. A coalition representing roughly 23,000 residents in Houston’s East End filed comments with the STB warning that the merger would worsen what is already the highest level of freight rail congestion of any U.S. city. Union Pacific controls approximately 95% of Houston’s rail trackage. The merger application itself projects a 36% increase in daily train traffic in one Houston subdivision within five years. UP must file an updated application with the STB by April 30, 2026; the board ruled in January that its initial submission was incomplete.

This merger would create the first U.S. transcontinental railroad, covering roughly 55,000 miles and handling about half of all U.S. freight traffic. It will be the first major Class I merger subjected to the STB’s 2001 rules requiring applicants to demonstrate that consolidation enhances, rather than merely preserves, competitive shipping options. UP and NS argue the combination cuts transit times by 24 to 48 hours and drives efficiency gains that lower costs for shippers. Critics, including commodity shippers and several members of Congress, are less convinced.

For crude shippers, this is not a theoretical concern. Houston handles massive crude export volumes through major terminals at the center of the U.S. export complex and adding 36% more train traffic to a city that federal data already identifies as the most congested rail hub in the country may make an already congested system worse. The STB review is multi-year and a decision is not imminent, but the competitive dynamics of a post-merger rail network will shape long-term shipping economics for anyone using the Gulf Coast as a crude export or distribution hub. PFL will continue to watch this one.

We are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

On April 3, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March 2026, reflecting a rebound in hiring following the prior month’s decline.

According to the BLS, 2025’s net new job gains were revised significantly lower following annual benchmark revisions, indicating weaker hiring trends than previously estimated. The official unemployment rate declined to 4.3% in March, down from 4.4% in February, suggesting a modest stabilization in labor market conditions, despite ongoing softness.  The good news in the report was the continued decline in government jobs and an increase in manufacturing jobs, a trend that we will hopefully see continue.

Consumer Confidence

The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan decreased from 56.6 in February to 55.5 in March.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased from 91 in February to 91.8 in March.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.
• 70, 30K DOT 117 Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Ohio. For use in Diesel service. Period: 3 months.
• 100, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. For use in Propane service. Period: 6 Months.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 106, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 20, 31.8K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 86, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.
• 117, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

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Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending March 21, 2026 came in at 210,000, versus the adjusted number of 205,000 people from the week prior, up 5,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,819,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,851,000 people from the week prior, down 32,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -793.47 points (-1.73%), closing out the week at 45,166.64, down -410.83 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -108.31 points (-1.67%), and closed out the week at 6,368.85, down -137.63 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -459.72 points (-2.15%), and closed out the week at 20,948.36, down -699.25 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 45,584 this morning, up 160 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up 5.16 per barrel (5.5%), to close at $99.64 on Friday of last week, and up $1.32 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up 4.56 per barrel (4.2%), to close at $112.57, and up $0.38 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for May delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$11.50  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$88.14 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.9 million barrels week-over-week. At 456.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 0.1% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3 million barrels week-over-week and are about 0.4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 500,000 barrels week-over-week and are 59% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 72.4 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 0.5 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 14 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 8.3 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending March 20, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day during the week ending March 20, 2026, a decrease of 730,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day, 15.5% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 443,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 155,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 20 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.322 million barrels per day during the week ending March 20, 2026, a decrease of 1.576 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 3.913 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week ending March 20, 2026, which was 366,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $101.61 this morning, up $1.97 from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending March 25, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-0.74%) in week 13, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending March 25, 2026 were 334,409, up (+1.14%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 328,970, down (-2.58%) year over year. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-24.62%). The largest increase was Other (+7.11%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+4.70%), with the largest decrease coming from Metallic Ores and Metals (-22.99%), while the largest increase came from Farm Products (+12.65%). NS’s total volumes were down (-0.22%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+31.86%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-21.51%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+2.41%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+27.80%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-7.82%). UP’s total volumes were down (-2.24%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+15.82%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-10.42%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-1.59%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+26.31%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-22.43%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-25.99%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+17.27%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-69.69%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -33 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was down by -9 rigs week-over-week, and down by -49 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 543 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -24 rigs week-over-week and down by -10 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 153 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -59 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

PFL is watching the STB

On Thursday of last week, the Surface Transportation Board unanimously voted to overhaul its environmental review process for rail infrastructure, the first update since 1991. Public comments are due April 24, 2026.

The biggest change for shippers: connecting track along existing rights-of-way would be categorically excluded from environmental review. New loading spurs, terminal connections, and crude-by-rail access points that currently require lengthy approvals get a direct path to construction.

For shippers in the Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford, faster infrastructure approvals mean more options to move product, more carrier competition, and a stronger negotiating position.

Where environmental assessments are still required, the rule imposes shorter timelines and page limits, reducing the time and cost of bringing rail infrastructure online.

This builds on the STB’s January 2026 proposal to repeal restrictions on reciprocal switching, which would expand competitive rail access for shippers currently served by a single carrier. Together, the two proposals represent the most significant shift in freight rail policy in a generation.

The comment deadline is April 24, 2026. If new rail access is part of your business plan, now is the time to engage. 

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,853 from 29,988 which was a decrease of -135 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were mixed. CN’s shipments were lower by -2% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +5.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were also mixed. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -7.0%. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +8.0% week-over-week.

We are Watching Canadian Crude Oil Exports by Rail

The Canadian Energy regulator reported on March 20, 2026, that 82,183 barrels were exported during the month of January 2026, up from 81,189 barrels in December of 2025, an increase of 994 barrels per day month-over-month.

Crude by rail will always be necessary out of Canada for stranded oil not connected by pipelines. Raw bitumen, which is shipped as a non-haz product and is not able to flow in pipelines, is competitive with pipeline tolls and is a growing market to keep an eye on, particularly in light of Strathcona and Gibson announcing new projects. Other factors would be existing long-term contractual commitments and basis – we really need to see basis WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average) blowout to -18 per barrel for sustained periods of time to make economic sense. Current rail rates from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast have averaged $15.36 per barrel, making rail competitive whenever WCS-WTI spreads exceed $18 per barrel, including quality adjustments.  However, with Oil closing near $100 per barrel on Friday of last week it does not matter for the Canadian producer at this point – what this tells us that there are simply not enough railcars out there to load crude into or readily available loading capacity.

We Continue to Watch Iran

The Strait of Hormuz now has a fee schedule. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has formalized what shipping analysts are calling the “Tehran toll booth,” a vetting and payment system that ships must submit to before receiving IRGC clearance to transit the waterway. Vessels are paying up to $2 million per passage through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor. Before the U.S.-Israel strikes began on February 28, more than 110 ships transited the strait daily; last week that number was fewer than 10.

Iran’s parliament introduced legislation last week to codify the toll structure, treating the strait as an Iranian corridor for which the world pays passage rather than a shared international waterway. This is not a blockade that ends with a ceasefire handshake. It is a structural claim on the world’s most important oil shipping lane.

WTI at Houston settled at $99.64/bl on Friday of last week, and Western Canadian Select at Hardisty finished the week at $88.14/bl. The WCS discount to the calendar month average WTI narrowed to approximately $11.50/bl, its tightest level since October, as Asian refiners bid aggressively for heavy Canadian crude to replace lost Middle East supply. Chicago WCS refining margins have averaged $41.21/bl since the strikes began on February 28, nearly double the prior-year average. Canadian grades are now among the most competitively priced spot crudes moving into China.

President Trump announced a 15-point peace proposal and gave Iran a 10-day extension while pausing strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure through April 6. The market shrugged. The IRGC turned back three container ships including COSCO-linked vessels attempting to transit the approved corridor, then reiterated the strait is closed. Trump called Iran’s limited vessel passage last week a “present.” Eight boats in a week is not a present; it is a reminder of who holds the keys.

We are Watching Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

Here are the facts, folks:  The Enbridge Mainline was apportioned nine months of 2025 and enters this crisis period fully loaded. Transmountain does have some spare capacity – rail seems to be another way to get barrels out of Canada, but is not happening due to the lack of readily available rail cars or the lack of loading capacity. Our guess is that shippers are reluctant to commit to long term leases (that leasing companies and car owners want) for what may be a short-term arbitrage opportunity and then there is the class 1’s (CN and CP) they want a long-term commitment from shippers as well.

TC Energy CEO François Poirier made a point at CERAWeek in Houston last week which is worth sharing with our readers: The U.S. produces roughly 120 percent of its annual energy needs. Canada produces approximately 185 percent of its. Japan produces around 10 percent, and most of Europe is in similar territory. Those three numbers explain almost everything about who is sweating the Hormuz closure and who is not.

The countries scrambling hardest for alternative crude supply right now — Japan, South Korea, India, much of Europe — are structurally dependent on Middle East flows in a way that North America simply is not. That dependency does not disappear when a crisis ends. It shapes long-term procurement strategy, and the lesson being absorbed in Tokyo and Seoul last week is that a supply chain running through a single Iranian-controlled chokepoint is not a supply chain, it is a vulnerability.

The irony for Canada is considerable. The country sitting on the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves and producing nearly twice its own energy needs yet cannot get its crude to tidewater in meaningful new volumes because it cannot permit a pipeline. The buyers who want Canadian crude most desperately right now — Asian refiners paying premium prices for WCS as a Hormuz alternative — are being served through a Trans Mountain system that has not settled its toll structure two years after opening a proposed west coast expansion that has no builder. Canada is energy rich and infrastructure poor, and the gap between those two facts is a policy failure that no amount of CERAWeek speechmaking corrects.

In other Carney news – Prime Minister Mark Carney’s April 1st pipeline deliverables are not going to be delivered in a deal that he had with the Alberta Government. Speaking in Houston at CERAWeek, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith acknowledged the first set of MOU deadlines tied to the west coast pipeline agreement will be missed, saying she did not want to delay “very long” but was working toward the timeframe. No private builder has stepped forward for the project. Alberta is still evaluating five potential B.C. port sites. TC Energy CEO Francois Poirier, told anyone who would listen that Ottawa’s two-year approval timeline is not competitive in a world of rising energy demand and that industry needs six months, not twenty-four. The Major Projects Office that Ottawa set up in Calgary is six months old and has approved nothing of significance.

While Ottawa talks about a west coast pipeline it cannot build, the market has voted with its feet. Enbridge EVP Colin Gruending at CERAWeek laid out the sequencing bluntly: south first, where there is a ready market and existing corridors, then a west coast project later, maybe. Premier Smith told the same audience that Americans will get first access to new Alberta volumes and that she has seen roughly 2.5 million barrels per day worth of southbound pipeline proposals. That is not a diversification strategy. It is an acknowledgment of where the pipes that actually get built tend to go.

Trans Mountain is not helping the west coast narrative either. Nearly two years after the TMX expansion entered service, final tolls have still not been set because of a dispute over billions of dollars in cost overruns that shippers refuse to absorb. Last week Trans Mountain asked the Canada Energy Regulator for another three-month extension to July 11 to keep negotiating with shippers. A federally owned pipeline cannot settle its own pricing two years after opening. A west coast pipeline with no builder, no confirmed route, missed first-month deadlines, and a regulatory agency that has yet to approve anything is not an energy policy for a country sitting on the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves during a global supply crisis.

PFL will keep watching, and so should Mark Carney, his left-wing green policies are now not only affecting the Canadian economy and its people but affecting world stability. This is his moment to shine and he is missing it.

We are watching BP

The BP Whiting lockout moved from threat to reality. More than 800 United Steelworkers Local 7-1 members have been on the picket line since March 19 outside the largest inland refinery in the United States, while BP runs the 440,000 barrel-per-day facility with a contingency team that logged more than 80,000 hours of training in preparation. Whiting is the dominant Midwest outlet for Western Canadian heavy crude, including WCS delivered by rail.

With Chicago WCS refining margins running at nearly double year-ago levels, BP has every financial reason to keep throughput intact. Whether the contingency team can actually sustain that rate is the open question heading into week three. BP’s March 17 proposal includes eliminating roughly 100 union positions, wage cuts across nearly all classifications, and a six-year agreement that would remove Whiting from national pattern bargaining. The union rejected the earlier offer 98.3%. The question is no longer whether a replacement team can start the refinery. It is whether that team can sustain 440,000 barrels per day, week after week, without the experienced union workforce.

PFL is monitoring the situation closely and can work with shippers managing exposure in that corridor.

We Are Watching Ethanol

The Ethanol market had a busy week on two fronts. The EPA on Wednesday of last week issued an emergency E15 waiver authorizing year-round sales of 15 percent ethanol blends from May 1 through May 20, with the agency signaling it is prepared to extend if supply conditions warrant. The agency simultaneously removed federal impediments to E10 and suspended enforcement of certain state-level fuel requirements that had been restricting blending volumes. Rail-delivered ethanol in Chicago was up week over week, strengthening as blending demand pulled ahead of the regulatory changes.

Then on Friday of last week the EPA finalized the Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” rule, setting conventional biofuel blending mandates at 15 billion gallons for both 2026 and 2027, the highest in the program’s twenty-year history. Biomass-based diesel volumes were set at 9.07 billion gallons in 2026, rising to 9.2 billion gallons in 2027. The EPA estimates that biodiesel and renewable diesel production will need to jump by more than 60 percent versus 2025 volumes, a year when production had already fallen by a third from 2024 levels. The rule also reallocates 70 percent of renewable fuel volumes lost to small refinery exemptions from 2023 through 2025, restoring roughly 2.03 billion gallons of previously lost demand.

Colonial Pipeline complicated the picture on Friday by announcing it will maintain its existing Reid Vapor Pressure fuel standards regardless of the E15 waiver, which limits how quickly incremental ethanol volumes flow through that corridor. Even so, the overall picture for ethanol demand is as constructive as it has been in years. Ethanol moves almost entirely by rail, and a 60-plus percent increase in biomass-based diesel volumes on top of an emergency summer waiver and the highest-ever blending mandate is a sustained tailwind for tank car demand, not a one-week event. Shippers looking to structure ethanol car commitments around this new mandate environment should be talking to PFL.

We are Watching Targa

Targa Resources’ Galena Park LPG export terminal on the Houston Ship Channel returned to near-normal operations last week after compressor failures forced a force majeure declaration on March 18. Loading volumes recovered to an estimated 493,000 barrels per day, up from just 233,000 the week before. The recovery is real, but the details of how it happened tell a more interesting story: the compressor failures primarily affected propane, and Targa has been shifting customers to butane loads while repairs continue.

That substitution reflects where the NGL market is right now. Butane has surged on international demand as buyers across Asia scramble for U.S. supply to replace Middle East cargoes that cannot move through the strait. India, which normally sources roughly 90 percent of its LPG’s from the Mideast Gulf, is on track to receive record volumes of U.S. LPG’s in March. Propane, by contrast, is drowning in domestic supply, sitting approximately 59 percent above the five-year seasonal average. Butane and propane, which normally move in tandem, are printing entirely different price charts this month, and the spread between them has blown out to levels not seen in years.

The Conway-to-Mont Belvieu butane spread has widened as Gulf coast prices outpaced midcontinent gains, creating arbitrage that moves product south via rail from Kansas and Oklahoma to fractionation and export terminals. PFL works with operators in this space and can help structure the pressurized car capacity needed to move incremental volumes.

We are watching Fertilizer

Corn Belt farmers are heading into the spring application window with fertilizer costs at levels not seen since 2022. Nitrogen is up because natural gas, the primary feedstock for ammonia and urea, has been rising throughout the Iran conflict. Phosphate remains constrained by Chinese export restrictions that have cut global supply by more than half since 2021. Potash is running approximately 21 percent above year-ago levels, with U.S. buyers caught between a 10 percent import tariff on Canadian product and no realistic alternative source.

The Fertilizer Transparency Act was introduced in the Senate last week week by Amy Klobuchar and John Thune, requiring domestic and foreign manufacturers and wholesalers to report prices and volumes weekly to USDA for public disclosure. The bipartisan bill is a direct response to the pricing that hits farmers hardest during supply shocks. Spring application is compressed into a matter of weeks, delays cost yield, and the demand for on-time delivery of ammonia and liquid nitrogen fertilizer by rail is at its seasonal peak right now.

The new RFS mandate adds a wrinkle to acreage decisions. Elevated fertilizer costs are squeezing corn margins at the same moment a record biodiesel mandate is creating a strong incentive to plant soybeans. Some corn-to-soy acre shifts this spring look likely, which would trim nitrogen demand but add soybean oil supply right when the biomass-based diesel market needs more feedstock. PFL works with shippers moving ammonia and UAN solution and can help structure car capacity around the peak window.

We are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Spending

In January 2026, total consumer spending continued to expand, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rising 0.2 percent from December 2025, reflecting more moderate but still positive household demand to start the year. Current-dollar PCE increased by approximately $53.0 billion, driven by a continued rise in services outlays that more than offset a modest decline in goods spending. Real (inflation-adjusted) PCE was flat (0.0%) in January.

The personal saving rate increased to approximately 3.8 percent in January, ticking up from December levels as income growth slightly outpaced spending early in the year.

On inflation, the PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.3 percent month-over-month in January and 2.6 percent year-over-year, showing some easing from late-2025 readings. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index rose 0.3 percent month-over-month and 2.8 percent year-over-year, indicating underlying inflation remains above the Fed’s long-run 2% target, but is gradually moderating.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 106, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 20, 31.8K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 86, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.
• 117, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 28.4K DOT 117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Beaumont, TX. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 3-30-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending March 14, 2026 came in at 205,000, versus the adjusted number of 213,000 people from the week prior, down 8,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,857,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,847,000 people from the week prior, up 10,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -443.96 points (-0.96%), closing out the week at 45,577.47, down -981.00 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -100.01 points (-1.51%), and closed out the week at 6,506.48, down -125.71 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -443.08 points (-2.01%), and closed out the week at 21,647.61, down -457.75 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 45,581 this morning, down 321 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and mixed week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $2.18 per barrel (2.27%), to close at $98.32 on Friday of last week, and down $0.39 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up 3.54 per barrel (3.26%), to close at $112.19, and up $9.05 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for May delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$11.60  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$80.36 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.2 million barrels week-over-week. At 449.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 1% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 800,000 barrels week-over-week and are 57% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 72.9 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 2.7 cents per gallon week-over-week, but down 11.6 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 400,000 barrels week-over-week, during the week ending March 13, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day during the week ending March 13, 2026, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day, 17.8% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 447,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 221,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 13 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.898 million barrels per day during the week ending March 13, 2026, an increase of 1.464 million barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.161 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending March 13, 2026, which was 63,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $99.09 this morning, up 86 cents from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending March 18, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-0.67%) in week 12, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending March 18, 2026 were 335,313, up (+0.45%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 337,419, down (-1.76%) year over year. 7 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-22.77%). The largest increase was Grain (+16.88%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+2.55%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-13.26%), while the largest increase came from Other (+21.60%). NS’s total volumes were up (+1.53%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+42.27%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-12.58%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+1.72%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+23.83%), while the largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-16.18%). UP’s total volumes were up (+0.23%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+26.25%), while the largest decrease came from Metallic Ores and Metals (-13.77%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-4.20%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+46.34%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-13.93%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-28.39%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+1.25%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-73.39%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -21 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was down by -1 rig week-over-week, and down by -41 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 552 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -20 rigs week-over-week and down by -3 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 177 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -44 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,988 from 30,502 which was a decrease of -514 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were lower. CN’s shipments were lower by -2% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were lower by -8.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mostly lower. The CSX had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -8.0%. The NS was the sole gainer and was up by +10% week-over-week.

PFL Was in attendance at last weeks SWARS Conference

Last week was the Southwest Association of Rail Shippers (SWARS) conference in Houston, Texas which brought together a strong cross-section of the rail industry — from Class I railroads to shippers across the energy, chemical, and industrial sectors.  950 of the over 1,200 registered showed up for the event, with many experiencing flight delays for a variety of reasons.

The conference continues to be a valuable forum for shippers to hear directly from railroad leadership and industry experts on the current state of the market. Discussions throughout the week touched on network performance, service consistency, infrastructure investment, and how the railroads are positioning themselves to handle evolving demand across key commodities.

A common theme was the ongoing push for efficiency and visibility across the supply chain. Shippers are looking for more predictability, while railroads are focused on optimizing network fluidity and asset utilization. There was also meaningful dialogue around safety initiatives and the regulatory landscape, both of which remain top priorities across the industry.

Beyond the presentations, SWARS continues to stand out as a place where real conversations and deals happen. It provides an opportunity to connect face-to-face, exchange perspectives, and better understand the challenges and opportunities each side of the industry is navigating.

For PFL, it’s always a valuable opportunity to stay close to the market, strengthen relationships, showcase our services, and meet new contacts across the space.

Appreciate everyone who helped make it a great week in Houston — for more information on SWARS please call PFL today!

We Are Watching the War in Iran

Three weeks into the conflict, the most important thing happening in global energy markets is not the price level. It is the price geography. The Brent-WTI spread, which traded around $4/bl before February 28, widened to nearly $20/bl at its peak last week, a divergence not seen in over a decade. Dubai crude traded as high as $136 per barrel. Oman crude exceeded $165. Crude benchmarks tied to regions closest to the disruption are commanding premiums that have no modern precedent, and North American crude is, for now, relatively insulated. WTI Houston settled last week at $101.69/bl, its widest premium over Nymex-quality WTI in Cushing since April 2020, as refiners globally scrambled to replace Middle Eastern barrels with U.S. export-quality crude. Bakken and Permian grades are suddenly in demand from buyers in Asia-Pacific and Europe who have rarely leaned on American supply this heavily.

For Western Canadian producers, the geography cuts both ways. WCS at Hardisty fell to $80.46/bl this week, down on the week even as WTI surged, reflecting a market that is struggling to move Canadian heavy crude to the buyers who need it most. The rail rate from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast, holds at $15.19/bl, meaning transported WCS still nets well against U.S. Gulf Coast heavy crude values from a Canadian producer perspective. The irony of this moment is that Alberta sits on some of the most production-ready heavy oil inventory in the world, priced at a discount, and the infrastructure to move it at scale is either full or lacks the necessary rail cars to move it. The pipeline and rail picture last week makes that point with unusual clarity, as we discuss in the stories that follow.

We Are Watching Targa

The Hormuz crisis already had global LPG markets on edge. Then on Wednesday last week, Targa Resources issued a force majeure on propane loadings from its Galena Park export terminal on the Houston Ship Channel after mechanical problems knocked the facility to 70% of its regular 472,000 b/d capacity. Terminal fees for LPG export cargoes out of the U.S. Gulf Coast surged to their highest level in more than ten years, as capacity constraints collided with an arbitrage to Asia that blew past $500 per tonne following attacks on gas treatment facilities at Iran’s South Pars project. AFEI propane prices, the benchmark for spot delivered propane into Japan, recorded their largest single-day increase on record on Thursday of last week, surging more than 18% in one session.

Galena Park accounts for roughly 20% of all U.S. LPG exports, with more than half of its volumes typically flowing to Japan and South Korea, markets that are now scrambling for supply as Hormuz throughput remains near zero for Western operators. Loading schedules are delayed by an estimated one to two weeks, and in a market this tight, that compounds quickly. Propane car demand into Gulf Coast accumulation points will reflect the tighter market as midcontinent buyers seek to move supply toward export terminals that are operating below capacity, and that dynamic supports tank car utilization on corridors that were running soft just a few weeks ago. Propane at the U.S. Gulf Coast is up and the inland supply is there. Getting it to tidewater efficiently is the problem.

We Are Watching Alberta

As PFL noted last week, the Trans Mountain Expansion was supposed to be Alberta’s insurance policy against exactly this kind of market dislocation: a geopolitical shock that makes Asian buyers suddenly hungry for non-Hormuz supply. That thesis is not playing out the way producers hoped. Heavy sour Canadian crude loading out of the TMX system fell to a two-week low, with May nominations still looking for buyers well past the point in the cycle when most FOB cargoes have typically traded. Chinese buyers, who have taken roughly 75% of heavy TMX exports since the pipeline came online in May 2024, are largely absent because advanced Chinese refineries cannot process high-TAN Canadian crude without blending it with Saudi Arab Light or Abu Dhabi Murban, neither of which is reliably available while Hormuz remains closed.

The consequence is that volume that would normally flow west to Westridge is backing up into the Enbridge Mainline, and the Mainline is already full. Heavy crude apportionment for April reached 14%, surpassing the previous post-TMX record set in February. Light crude nominations at Kerrobert were cut by 23%. The Chicago WCS crack spread averaged around $34/bl during the April trading cycle, which kept southbound Mainline demand strong and contributed directly to the record apportionment. CPKC petroleum carloads fell 8% last week and CN was down 2%, both reflecting spreads that have made long-haul rail less competitive even as pipeline capacity tightens.

We Are Watching North Dakota

When the Brent-WTI spread trades at nearly $12/bl and is widening fast, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority pays attention. That spread, which stood at roughly $6/bl just six days earlier, nearly doubled in a week as global crude markets repriced the geography of supply. North Dakota produced 1.16 million barrels per day in January, down slightly from the prior year as both winter weather and pre-war low prices constrained activity. Any meaningful increase in North Dakota output to capture coastal market premiums would move by rail, since the pipelines connecting the state to east and west coast refiners are either full or not built. That was true before the Iran war, and it is doubly true now.  There are non-coiled railcars out there to ship Bakken crude if one could get loading, call PFL today!

The caution flag is the capital cycle lag. Operators who were pulling rigs in January, including at least one major producer that had cut to zero drilling rigs earlier this year, cannot restart overnight on a price signal that may prove temporary. Meaningful output changes lag capital spending decisions by six to twelve months. West and east coast refiners together imported about 314,000 b/d from the Middle East in 2025. If even a fraction of that volume shifts to Bakken crude delivered by rail, it represents a real demand signal for tank cars on corridors that have been running well below their capacity peak. The economics need to hold long enough for producers to commit capital and shippers commit to rail cars. That is the open question!

We Are Watching BP

At midnight on Thursday of last week, BP locked out more than 800 United Steelworkers members at its Whiting, Indiana refinery, formally moving the labor dispute from threat to reality. Whiting processes 440,000 barrels per day and is the single largest inland refinery in the United States. 98.3% of its members had voted to authorize a strike, and the USW president said publicly that members are prepared for a long fight. BP’s decision to initiate the lockout rather than wait for a strike gives the company control of the timeline, but running a refinery of this complexity on replacement workers and salaried staff is a risk that BP’s public statements have understated.

The timing matters for markets that are already stretched. Illinois retail gasoline averaged $4.18 per gallon last week, up 35% month-over-month. Diesel crack spreads are at levels not seen since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Whiting sits at the center of supply chains that feed fuel distribution across the Midwest and into the southeast. Any operational disruption that forces crude throughput reductions, even briefly, would ripple through product markets that have no margin for additional tightening. Both sides say they are willing to keep talking. The Union President’s public posture suggests that the USW is not in a hurry to fold. PFL customers who route crude to the Chicago complex or depend on product movements out of Whiting should keep this one on the radar.

We Are Watching the Jones Act

On Wednesday of last week, the White House announced a 60-day suspension of the Jones Act, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to carry crude oil, natural gas, NGL, refined petroleum products, coal, and fertilizer between U.S. ports. The administration framed it as a national security measure under the same Defense Production Act authority used for other emergency actions taken last week. The American Maritime Partnership, representing domestic carriers, argued that domestic shipping costs account for less than one cent per gallon of gasoline nationwide, making the pump price relief largely symbolic. That is probably right! The more consequential near-term effect is on fertilizer distribution, where a 60-day window landing directly on the spring planting window finds farmers already absorbing a 30% urea price spike at the Port of New Orleans, and looking for every available supply avenue.

A detail from market sources this week deserves attention from anyone watching Gulf Coast product flows. Borco, Buckeye Partners’ terminal in Freeport, Bahamas, became the top destination for Gulf Coast gasoline blending component exports in 2025 precisely because shippers used it to avoid Jones Act tanker costs on domestic voyages. That routing is now being bypassed entirely, with charterers already putting foreign Aframax tankers on subjects for direct Houston to East Coast voyages. Every barrel of refined product that moves by foreign-flagged tanker directly from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic coast is a barrel that does not move by rail or pipeline, and 60 days is long enough to reshape some routing habits. Whether the waiver gets extended past May is the question worth tracking. It has been done before. Once granted, the political barrier drops.

We Are Watching Ethanol

Ethanol has been waiting for a catalyst. It got one. Rail-delivered ethanol in Chicago hit $1.99 per gallon last week, up more than 10 cents week over week, as the energy price spike from the Hormuz crisis pushed blending economics sharply in ethanol’s favour. With gasoline approaching $3.84 per gallon nationally and blend components tightening across the Atlantic coast, the price advantage of E10 and E15 blends is widening in real time. The Renewable Fuels Association and seven Midwestern governors jointly petitioned the EPA for an emergency year-round E15 waiver for the 2026 summer driving season, and the political conditions for a favourable response have never been better.

The supply picture is equally supportive. The ethanol industry entered 2026 with nearly two billion gallons of unused production capacity after a record 16.5-billion-gallon production year in 2025. That slack can be absorbed quickly if blending mandates expand. For ethanol tank car operators, a 10-cent weekly price move combined with a pending E15 waiver and a gasoline market that needs domestic volume relief all point to meaningfully stronger car demand through the summer driving season. The Omaha-to-Bakersfield unit train rate holds at 27.47 cents per gallon this week, essentially flat on the month, which means the economics of moving Midwest ethanol to West Coast blending hubs have improved materially as the commodity price moved and the transport cost did not.

We Are Watching Fertilizer

Urea at the Port of New Orleans hit $550 per tonne last week, up 30% in less than three weeks. The cause is not a demand surge. It is physical absence of supply. The Strait of Hormuz closure has stranded an estimated 35% of the world’s seaborne urea and phosphate production, with no viable pipeline or land-based alternative capable of moving bulk fertilizer volumes out of the Persian Gulf at scale. The timing is as bad as it gets: this is the spring planting window for North American corn and soy, and farmers are pricing inputs for a crop that goes in the ground in the next four to six weeks. Some global spot prices have been reported as high as $680 per tonne, reflecting panic buying.

North American fertilizer moves overwhelmingly by rail from Gulf Coast import terminals and domestic production facilities to agricultural distribution points across the corn belt. A 30% price spike does not reduce the tonnage that needs to move, it concentrates demand and creates urgency in the supply chain. Farmers who locked in fertilizer supply earlier in the season are insulated. Those who did not, are now competing for a short market on a short timeline, and that competition flows directly into tank car and covered hopper demand on the corridors connecting Gulf ports to Midwest distribution hubs. The Jones Act waiver covers fertilizer and opens some additional marine routing flexibility, the volumes moving inland to farm-level distribution will not be affected. Rail is still the only practical answer for the last several hundred miles.

We Continue to Watch Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

On Wednesday of last week, TC Energy CEO Francois Poirier used a public investor forum to deliver a direct rebuke of Prime Minister Carney’s energy infrastructure framework. Carney’s Major Projects Office, opened last year to steer proposals to approval within two years, is, in Poirier’s view, simply not competitive in a world where energy demand is rising. He called explicitly for a six-month permitting window. The CEO of the company that would build a new Canadian pipeline corridor is publicly saying the government’s approval process is still too slow, and that signal will land with every institutional investor currently deciding whether to commit capital to Canadian energy infrastructure.

We have covered Carney’s energy posture repeatedly in recent reports. The gap between the rhetoric and the regulatory reality has not closed. Last week, with Hormuz disrupting global supply and the U.S. leaning on Canadian crude as a strategic asset in ongoing tariff talks, the cost of that gap is more visible than it has been in years. Canada pledged 23.6 million barrels to the IEA’s coordinated stabilization effort this week, with production increases from Alberta’s oil sands taking three to six months to reach market. A country that cannot build a pipeline in under a decade, cannot permit a terminal without a court fight, and whose prime minister’s flagship infrastructure office is being called inadequate by the CEO of its largest pipeline company is not an energy superpower. It is a country with energy in the ground and politics above it.  Carney needs to make a pivot quickly in our opinion the hard working Canadian people deserve better!

We are watching Class 1 Industrial Headcount

Class I railroads employed 116,364 workers in the United States in February 2026, a 1.35% increase from January 2026’s count of 114,811 but a -2.67% year-over-year decrease from February 2025’s total of 119,562, according to Surface Transportation Board data.

Three of the six employment categories posted month-over-month increases between January and February 2026. These were Professional and Administrative, up 2.08% to 9,016 workers; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, which increased 1.62% to 16,617 workers; and Transportation (train and engine), which increased 2.17% to 49,670 workers, Maintenance of Way and Structures rose 0.75% to 28,373 workers, and Transportation (other than train and engine) increased 1.29% to 4,800 workers.

The category that posted a month-over-month decrease was Executives, officials, and staff assistants, down -2.76% to 7,888 workers.

Year-over-year, only one category posted an employment gain: Executives, officials, and staff assistants, up 0.33%.

Categories that registered year-over-year decreases in February 2026 were Professional and Administrative, down -6.63%; Maintenance of Way and Structures, down -0.42%; Maintenance of Equipment and Stores, down -2.54%; Transportation (other than train and engine), down -4.97%; and Transportation (train and engine), down -3.46%.

We are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing accounts for approximately 75% of total output. Manufacturing output in February was up 0.20% from January of 2026.

Capacity utilization is a measure of how fully firms are using the machinery and equipment. Capacity Utilization was up 0.05% from January in February.

Producer Price Index

In February 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% month-over-month, easing from the 0.5% increase in January but still indicating continued upstream price pressures. Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) increased 0.2% month over month, slightly below January’s pace. The monthly increase was driven primarily by services, which rose 0.4%, while goods increased 0.2%. Within goods, food prices rose modestly, while energy prices were mixed; goods less foods and energy increased 0.3%, suggesting steady core goods pricing. Within services, trade margins continued to firm, while transportation and warehousing posted moderate gains, and services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were relatively subdued, indicating more balanced services inflation compared to January.

In February 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% month-over-month, accelerating from January’s gain, and was up approximately 2.9% year over year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.3% month-over-month and was up approximately 2.8% year-over-year. Shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly increase. Food prices continued to edge higher, while energy prices rebounded modestly, contributing to the firmer headline figure.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 100, 30K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 100, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 3-23-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending March 7, 2026 came in at 213,000, versus the adjusted number of 214,000 people from the week prior, down 1,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,850,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,871,000 people from the week prior, down 21,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -119.38 points (-0.26%), closing out the week at 46,558.47, down -943.08 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -40.43 points (-0.61%), and closed out the week at 6,632.19, down -107.83 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -206.62 points (-0.93%), and closed out the week at 22,105.36, down -282.32 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 46,952 this morning, up 66 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up 2.98 per barrel (3.11%), to close at $98.71 on Friday of last week, up $7.81 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $2.68 per barrel (2.67%), to close at $103.14, and up $10.45 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for April delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$13.15  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$79.96 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels week-over-week. At 443.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels week-over-week and are 5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels week-over-week and are 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week and are 53% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 70.2 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 8.8 cents per gallon week-over-week, but down 16 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending March 6, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day during the week ending March 6, 2026, an increase of 98,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day, 12.6% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 542,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 179,000 barrels per day during the week ending March 6, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.434 million barrels per day during the week ending March 6, 2026, a decrease of 563,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.084 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending March 6, 2026, which was 328,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.

WTI is poised to open at $98.91, up 20 cents per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending March 11, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+0.58%) in week 11, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending March 11, 2026 were 337,284, up (+2.35%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 341,752, down (-1.10%) year over year. 6 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-17.08%). The largest increase was Coal (+14.16%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+2.39%), with the largest decrease coming from Grain (-22.81%), while the largest increase came from Other (+10.76%). NS’s total volumes were down (-1.15%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+17.45%), while the largest decrease came from Grain (-18.41%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+5.05%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+17.27%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-8.85%). UP’s total volumes were up (+2.37%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+40.61%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-4.73%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were down (-0.11%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+30.21%), while the largest decrease came from Nonmetallic Minerals (-10.97%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-25.24%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+45.60%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-69.85%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -6 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was up by +2 rigs week-over-week, but down by -39 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 553 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -8 rigs week-over-week and down by -2 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 197 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -41 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 30,502 from 30,360 which was an increase of +142 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were mixed. CN’s shipments were flat week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were lower by -4.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were down across the board. The NS had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -13.0%. 

We are Watching the Hormuz Chokepoint

Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28th killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and triggered an Iranian response that has effectively halted Western-aligned tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. By early last week, over 150 vessels were anchored outside the strait, major insurers had pulled war-risk coverage, and Iran’s new Supreme Leader, who we have not seen publicly, declared the closure permanent. The IEA responded on Wednesday of last week with its largest-ever emergency reserve release, 400 million barrels, a figure that represents less than 20 days of the roughly 20 million barrels per day the strait normally carries. For rail car operators and their customers, the first question is whether any of this actually changes North American transportation economics. Right now, the honest answer is: not much, and not in the way the headlines suggest.

The price signal is real. One Exchange’s WCS at Hardisty closed on Friday of last week at US$79.96 per barrel, the highest closing in more than three years, while WTI at Houston settled at $98.71 per barrel. Retail diesel rose nearly a dollar per gallon on the week, and the EIA raised its full-year 2026 retail diesel forecast by 20 percent to $4.12 per gallon. But higher outright crude prices are not the same as higher crude rail volumes. The Alberta-to-Gulf Coast unit train rate sits at $15.19 per barrel  and One ExchangeWCS-WTI differential has narrowed to roughly $13 per barrel on the war premium, still below the $15-20/bl range historically required to make long term movement competitive with pipeline. Enbridge Mainline apportionment peaked at 22 percent in February and has already eased to 11 percent for March nominations. 

Enbridge presently seem to be loosening, not tightening, and the differential is moving in the wrong direction for rail economics. Additionally, it is not like there are fleets or rail cars out there sitting idle and ready to fill the gap that is a pipe dream in itself!  It is going to take a long-term commitment by producers to have cars built for them and a long-term commitment with a class one to move the product by rail and that will not happen overnight.

Duration is the variable that changes the picture. Tanker operator D’Amico warned last week that infrastructure damage across Gulf refineries and export terminals, combined with the risk of mines lingering in the strait, means flows may not recover to pre-war levels quickly even after hostilities end. A disruption measured in months rather than weeks is the scenario where pipeline apportionment tightens again and the case for incremental crude rail movements out of Alberta becomes concrete rather than theoretical. That is not today’s market.

We are Watching Canada’s Pipeline Problem

Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson was on television everyday last week in Canada pledging that Canada will do its part for global energy stability. The world, for its part, appears to believe him – Hodgson confirmed his office has received calls from multiple countries seeking additional Canadian energy exports. The problem is the same one Alberta has been living with for years. The pipelines are nearly full, and there is no quick fix although Enbridge and Trasmountain are tweaking their systems as previously reported by PFL to get more barrels into existing pipe as quickly as possible. Trans Mountain is running at roughly 90 percent of its 890,000 barrel per day capacity. Alberta’s producers are entering spring maintenance season, a period that historically removes 150,000 barrels per day or more from provincial output through the second quarter, meaning the volume available to contribute to any emergency response is shrinking at exactly the moment demand is surging. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said it plainly: “There is very minimal short-term ability for Canadian producers to further increase production.” Canadian Natural Resources underlined it by delaying a C$8.25 billion oil sands expansion, citing unresolved federal carbon pricing and methane rules.

Asian refiners are bidding aggressively for TMX heavy crude because Canadian barrels blend with light grades to replicate the medium and heavy sour yields normally flowing from the Gulf. May-loading TMX line space for heavy crude was heard trading at $9.30-9.70 per barrel, roughly $1.30 per barrel above where April space cleared, with Access to Western Blend at Edmonton hitting its highest level since June 2022. That demand is flowing west through TMX and onto Asian tankers, not south by rail. Every barrel Alberta produces above existing pipeline capacity still needs another way out, we have not hit that wall.  Stay tuned to PFL – we watch this one daily.

We are Watching BP

USW Local 7-1 voted to reject BP’s “last, best and final” contract offer by 98.3 percent, with 94 percent of members participating. The vote came after more than six weeks of negotiations since the contract expired January 31. BP’s proposals included cutting roughly 100 to 200 union jobs through outsourcing, reducing wages across job classifications, requiring 150 days notice before a strike or lockout, and locking workers into a six-year contract that would remove Whiting from the national bargaining cycle. Strike and lockout preparations have been initiated, while workers continue to report under rolling 24-hour contract extensions. No strike date has been set, but the situation is deteriorating.

Whiting processes 440,000 b/d, making it the largest refinery in the US Midwest and the dominant processor of Canadian heavy crude in the region. It sits at the end of the Enbridge Mainline corridor and is one of the primary destinations for Alberta barrels moving through the Chicago-area hub. A work stoppage at Whiting would immediately reduce crude demand on the Enbridge system at a time when apportionment is already elevated, and would tighten distillate supply across Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan, pulling more refined product movement to rail and barge to fill the gap. The last time USW struck Whiting was 2015, and the walkout ran 99 days. That disruption caused rack allocations and wholesale price spikes across the Midwest. Our bet in talking to people in the know is there will be a deal cut before a lockout happens.

We are Watching ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil’s board voted unanimously last week to recommend reincorporating in Texas, and moving its legal domicile from New Jersey, where it has been registered since 1882 as Standard Oil.  The company has had its physical headquarters in Spring, Texas, north of Houston, since 1989, so the legal change simply catches the address up with where the company already operates. Texas created a Business Court and specialized commercial appeals court in 2023 to improve legal predictability for large corporate defendants, and it has worked: Tesla, SpaceX, Coinbase, and Dillard’s have all made the same move in recent years.  We are seeing companies constantly fleeing from blue States to red States, a trend that’s not letting up.

We are Watching the Fertilizer

The Strait of Hormuz closure has hit agriculture at the worst possible moment. Roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, including nearly half the world’s urea exports and 30 percent of ammonia, transits the strait. With that supply effectively cut off, benchmark nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged 30 to 44 percent in less than two weeks. Urea has jumped from $475 per metric tonne to over $680. This is landing on Canadian and U.S. farm balance sheets as spring planting is weeks away.

Farm Credit Canada estimates that a 40 percent increase in nitrogen costs would cut average Saskatchewan farm margins in half, from roughly $50 per acre to $25 per acre on a typical wheat and canola rotation. Farmers who pre-purchased fertilizer in the fall are protected; those who did not face a brutal choice. If enough farmers reduce nitrogen application or rotate away from corn toward less fertilizer-intensive crops like soybeans, the downstream effect is lower grain volumes moving to rail in the second half of 2026, precisely when the harvest season normally drives peak hopper car demand. Nutrien, the world’s largest fertilizer producer and a dominant North American rail shipper, received a major analyst upgrade last week, with Jefferies raising its price target by nearly 30%. North American producers with natural gas feedstock are the direct beneficiaries when Middle Eastern supply is disrupted.

We are Watching Ethanol

Retail gasoline rose 48.7 cents per gallon last week, the largest single-week increase in four years, pushing the national average above $3.50 per gallon. That move has done something years of lobbying and policy debate has struggled to accomplish: it has made E15 meaningfully cheaper than E10 at the pump by a margin wide enough that price-conscious consumers will notice. E15 typically prices 10 to 30 cents per gallon below conventional gasoline, and at current retail levels that discount is at the upper end of that range. Growth Energy reported that 2025 saw a 50 percent increase in E15 sales, a 42 percent increase in terminal supply, and 900 new retail locations. The war-driven gasoline spike is accelerating what was already a structural trend.

Ethanol moves almost exclusively by rail. U.S. ethanol production hit a record 16.4 billion gallons in 2025, and exports reached an all-time high of 2.18 billion gallons. The question now is whether domestic demand growth can match that production momentum. Congressional legislation that would establish year-round E15 nationwide is pending, and the price environment created by the Iran war has given it its most compelling economic argument in years: consumers are already choosing E15 where it is available, and the infrastructure to supply it moves by tank car. Only about 4,700 of the roughly 150,000 U.S. gasoline stations currently sell E15. Closing that gap requires blending terminal investment and the rail capacity to keep those terminals supplied. The demand signal is there. The infrastructure buildout is the constraint, but it can happen quickly.

We are Watching Captive Shippers

The Surface Transportation Board’s rewritten reciprocal switching proposal drew strong support from commodity shippers in filings last week. The revision follows a federal appeals court striking down the previous version last July. The key change is the elimination of the requirement that shippers prove “anti-competitive conduct” before requesting access to a competing carrier, replaced by a simpler standard based on demonstrated service failure. For energy shippers, this is a meaningful shift. Refineries, petrochemical plants, and terminals are geographically fixed, and when a single Class I railroad is the only carrier at a facility, shippers have historically had almost no leverage when service deteriorates.

The American Petroleum Institute, whose 600 members move crude, refined products, and petrochemical feedstocks by rail, noted many are captive to a single carrier and said the credible threat of switching would force railroads to compete on service quality. LyondellBasell, which operates 20,000 private rail cars across 19 facilities, told the STB that access to switching at eight of those locations has measurably reduced routing delays and congestion. The American Chemistry Council argued the rules are a necessary counterweight to the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger currently before the STB, noting that consolidation makes competitive access remedies more critical, not less. Better service leverage and the real possibility of switching are a concrete improvement for every private tank car fleet operating in a captive corridor.

We are Watching Parsec

Parsec LLC is closing three intermodal terminals and cutting approximately 300 jobs after losing customer contracts at all three locations. The Columbus, Ohio, facility is eliminating 115 positions by May 1. The Jacksonville, Florida, closure will affect roughly 150. North Charleston, South Carolina, will affect 98 people. Parsec, founded in 1949, manages rail yards under contract on behalf of Class I, regional, and short-line railroads, and was acquired by Universal Logistics Holdings for $193.6 million in September 2024. In filings with state regulators, Parsec stated that all negotiations to continue operations at the Columbus terminal failed, leaving the company with no viable path forward at that location. Whether the contract losses are connected to the ownership change or reflect broader market conditions is not yet clear.

The closures are a symptom of a specific freight dynamic. Shippers pulled large import volumes forward in late 2025 ahead of potential tariff changes, effectively borrowing demand from early 2026 and leaving the first quarter thin. Truck capacity remains plentiful, keeping pressure on intermodal pricing. Three terminal closures from a single operator in a single quarter is a concrete measure of how soft the intermodal market actually is right now, underneath the noise of the energy price headlines.

We are watching Key Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

On March 6, 2026, the BLS reported that a preliminary 92,000 net jobs were lost in February 2026, marking an unexpected decline in employment after modest gains earlier in the year. Figures for prior months continue to show limited momentum, with job growth remaining weak overall.

According to the BLS, 2025’s net new job gains were revised sharply lower to 181,000 following annual benchmark revisions, indicating significantly weaker hiring than previously estimated. The official unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February, up slightly from 4.3% in January.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K DOT 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.
• 40, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of UP in Eunice, LA. For use in Propane service. Period: 1 Year.
• 40, 29K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Midwest. For use in Veg Oil service. Period: 5 Year.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 100, 30K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 100, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 3-16-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending February 28, 2026 came in at 213,000, versus the adjusted number of 213,000 people from the week prior, flat week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,868,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,822,000 people from the week prior, up 46,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -453.19 points (-0.95%), closing out the week at 47,501.55, down -1,496.37 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -90.69 points (-1.33%), and closed out the week at 6,740.02, down -138.86 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -361.31 points (-1.59%), and closed out the week at 22,387.68, down -280.53 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 47,065 this morning, down 452 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $9.89 per barrel (12.21%), to close at $90.90 on Friday of last week, and up $23.88 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $7.28 per barrel (8.52%), to close at $92.69, and up $20.21 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for April delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$12.00  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$78.90 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.5 million barrels week-over-week. At 439.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week and are 4% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 400,000 barrels week-over-week and are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 800,000 barrels week-over-week and are 54% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 61.4 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, up 0.9 cents per gallon week-over-week, but down 32.9 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week week-over-week, during the week ending February 27, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day during the week ending February 27, 2026, a decrease of 335,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day, 10.3% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 438,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 174,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 27, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.997 million barrels per day during the week ending February 27, 2026, a decrease of 316,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.16 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending February 27, 2026, which was up 180,000 barrels per day week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $100, up $10.06 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending March 4, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+9.48%) in week 10, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending March 4, 2026 were 343,593, up (+18.02%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 335,383, up (+1.92%) year over year. 1 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year decreases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-16.37%). The largest increase was Grain (+53.30%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+10.70%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-4.75%), while the largest increase came from Coal (+34.69%). NS’s total volumes were up (+5.54%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+64.08%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-9.83%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+15.72%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+84.36%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-1.54%). UP’s total volumes were up (+9.40%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+32.14%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-1.24%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+19.36%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+148.26%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-5.35%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-17.26%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+38.55%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-72.19%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -8 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was up by +1 rig week-over-week, but down by -41 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 551 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -9 rigs week-over-week and down by -29 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 205 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -70 rigs collectively.

International rig count which is reported monthly was up by +33 rigs month-over-month and up by +15 rigs year-over-year. Internationally there are 1,112 active rigs.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

PFL has been on the conference circuit

The 16th Annual OPIS NGL Summit in Las Vegas was another outstanding event and a great opportunity to reconnect with colleagues and partners across the industry. With hundreds of attendees representing producers, traders, midstream companies, railroads, and service providers, there was no shortage of productive conversations and meetings throughout the week. PFL Petroleum Services was represented by Brian Baker and David Cohen, who spent the week meeting with industry partners and discussing opportunities across railcar services. The consistent theme throughout the event was the positive outlook for the NGL and LPG markets, with many attendees expressing optimism about continued demand growth, strong export markets, and expanding infrastructure supporting the industry. The receptions and networking events were excellent, and as always the relationships built and strengthened at this event are what make this summit such a valuable gathering for the NGL market.

Beyond the meetings, the week also included some memorable moments outside the conference sessions. The Targa party was one for the books and a highlight of the event, and the golf outing at Bali Hai was a great way to enjoy the beautiful Las Vegas weather while continuing conversations with industry peers. The OPIS team did a fantastic job organizing the summit and creating an environment where meaningful business connections can happen. A special thanks goes to the organizers, particularly David Coates and Nicole Morris, for putting together another excellent conference.  

David Cohen was in attendance at the Rail Equipment Finance Conference in beautiful Palm Springs. The conference as usual was a big success. All of the industry’s top players were there – talking shop about rail equipment, leasing, and overall economics. It is always an informative conference and a good way to get your finger on the pulse of where things will be headed in the year to come. While the overall outlook is optimistic, certain car types and commodity groups are likely to perform much better than others. While not much growth is expected in overall carloads, an aging fleet and cars being removed from service will create a lot of opportunity.  Car owners and equipment financiers are very actively looking for deals. If you are interested in learning more about what was discussed please do not hesitate to reach out to us at the desk, 239-390-2885.

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 30,360 from 29,874 which was an increase of +486 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were higher. CN’s shipments were higher by +1.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +3.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were up across the board. The NS had the largest percentage increase and was up by +13.0%. 

We are Watching the World’s Biggest Energy Choke Point

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the shockwaves hit every corner of the energy market last week. After U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28th, the IRGC declared the strait shut and threatened any vessel attempting transit. P&I insurance coverage was pulled as of March 5th, making it economically impossible for most operators to run the route. Brent crossed $90 for the first time since April 2024, and VLCC rates from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China nearly doubled week over week, hitting roughly $14 per barrel on a WTI basis, the highest level recorded since that route began being assessed in 2012.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Drop in Marine Traffic

Source: Associated French Press – PFL Analytics

For North American crude, this is a profound market realignment. Asian refiners scrambling to replace Middle Eastern supply are looking hard at U.S. and Canadian grades. Japanese refiners have already started lobbying their government for strategic petroleum reserve releases. U.S. light sweet WTI has emerged as a direct substitute for Abu Dhabi’s Murban at several Asia-Pacific refineries, with at least one Japanese refiner locking in 2 million barrels of WTI for June delivery. The medium sour grades that Gulf Coast refiners relied on from Saudi Arabia and Iraq totaled around 587,000 b/d in the November-February window per Vortexa, and they are essentially off the table for now.

Crude-by-rail is not a relief valve that turns on with a week’s notice. The roughly 28,000 crude-specific tank cars in North America are overwhelmingly committed under multi-year leases, and major lessor utilization was running above 99 percent in 2024. New cars cost $150,000 to $180,000 and take 12 to 18 months to build. The shippers positioned to benefit from this environment are the ones who never let their CBR programs lapse, not those scrambling to stand one up now. With Enbridge Mainline running 13 percent apportionment in March and Alberta-to-U.S. Gulf Coast unit train rates sitting at $15.19/bl, the economics are moving decisively in favor of operators who already have infrastructure in place. Call PFL for further details. We do have some cars available for crude service, but not very many!

We are Watching Left Wing Canadian Prime Minister Carney

Canada’s largest oil producer just blinked, and it pointed the finger directly at Carney and Ottawa. Last week CNRL announced it is deferring all front-end engineering and design work on its $8.25-billion Jackpine mine expansion, cutting $310 million from its 2026 capital budget. The reason, stated plainly by president Scott Stauth: “lack of finalization of government regulatory policies around carbon pricing and methane, which creates uncertainty and economic burden for long-term growth investments.” The Jackpine expansion would have added 150,000 barrels per day of bitumen production, roughly the same volume the Trans Mountain Expansion added to Canadian export capacity when it came online in 2024, and it is now on ice indefinitely.

Carney’s November MOU with Alberta commits to ramping the industrial carbon price to a minimum effective credit price of $130 per tonne, which Carney himself described as more than a six times increase. Oil sands operators with carbon capture in place, like CNRL with its Scotford Quest project, are furious that they still face compliance costs despite actively sequestering CO2. Stauth’s position is blunt: if you are burying the carbon, you should not be paying the carbon tax. Ottawa has an April 1st deadline to finalize the carbon pricing framework under the Alberta MOU, and the entire oil sands sector is watching to see whether Carney delivers or punts again.

Every barrel of production that does not get sanctioned is a barrel that never needs to be transported. A 150,000 b/d project coming online in 2030 or 2031 would have represented meaningful incremental demand for both pipeline and rail egress. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation called on both Carney and Premier Danielle Smith to scrap industrial carbon taxes entirely, saying “even a pause on a multi-billion-dollar project costs Canadians jobs and costs governments royalties.” Carney is doing precisely what the industry warned he would do, and CNRL’s Jackpine deferral is only the most visible evidence of it so far.

We are Watching Alberta’s Pipeline Scramble

At least 2.25 million b/d of new long-haul capacity proposals have emerged on top of Alberta’s existing 5.4 million b/d export system, and they are not idle talk. South Bow launched an open season last week for its “Prairie Connector” project, soliciting binding long-term commitments for up to 450,000 b/d of new capacity from Hardisty to the U.S. border, connecting to Bridger Pipeline’s proposed 550,000 b/d system into Wyoming. The open season runs through March 30th, and South Bow CEO Bevin Wirzba said the policy environment is “far more constructive” than during previous attempts.

Alberta hit a record 4.41 million b/d in December 2025, up from 4.26 million b/d a year earlier, and South Bow expects Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin output to exceed takeaway capacity by mid-2027. Enbridge is already apportioning 13 percent of heavy crude nominations on the Mainline in March, up from essentially zero for most of last year, and the near-term fixes, Trans Mountain adding 90,000 b/d and Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization adding 150,000 b/d, are 2027 stories at the earliest.

None of these pipeline proposals solve the 2027 problem. The gap between production growth and takeaway capacity will open before any of them can close it, which is precisely where crude-by-rail lives. The Hormuz disruption is adding urgency, with Trump and Carney discussing Keystone XL revival as Canada repositions itself as a reliable non-Middle-Eastern supplier. Canada’s energy minister Tim Hodgson said this week that Canada is “even more important today than we were before the weekend.” He is not wrong. But infrastructure cannot be conjured on short notice, in pipelines or in rail cars.

We Continue to watch Enbridge Line 5

A U.S. federal judge in Wisconsin handed Enbridge a critical reprieve last week, staying a June 16, 2026 shutdown order on the 540,000 b/d Line 5 pipeline. The order had required Enbridge to relocate a 41-mile section crossing Bad River Band land in Wisconsin or shut the line by that date. The problem was timing: construction of the reroute only received clearance to begin last week after years of litigation delays, and the project will take 12 to 14 months to complete. Judge William Conley cited the “potentially devastating impact a sudden shutdown of Line 5 would have on energy prices and local economies, as well as foreign relations with Canada” in granting the stay.

Mainline Optimization Projects

Source: Enbridge – PFL Analytics

Line 5 is not a minor piece of pipe in the ground. It stretches from Superior, Wisconsin through Michigan to Sarnia, Ontario, and most of its volume originates in western Canada via Enbridge’s 3.1 million b/d Mainline system. A sudden shutdown would have pulled significant volumes of Canadian crude and NGLs off a critical corridor into Ontario refining markets, creating immediate pressure to find alternative rail and truck transportation for affected volumes. The stay removes that worst-case scenario for now, though both parties have appeals pending at the Seventh Circuit. This story has been going on for a long time, but is not over. Common sense says it should be over and Enbridge should be able to complete it’s work around. Stay tuned to PFL. We are always watching this one.

We are Watching California

California’s fuel supply story went from bad to worse last week. The Valero Benicia refinery fully idled its crude unit in early February, and DOE data confirmed West Coast oil processing dropped by 144,000 b/d in the week ended February 20th, matching the shutdown barrel for barrel. This follows Phillips 66 shutting its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery last year. California has now lost over 20 percent of its refining capacity in less than 18 months, with no pipeline connections to Gulf Coast or Midwest refinery hubs to compensate, leaving the state genuinely isolated every time supply tightens.

Alaska North Slope crude hit record delivered prices in the Pacific Basin this week as Asia-Pacific buyers competed for the same medium sour barrels that West Coast refiners depend on. The fleet of Jones Act tankers that normally moves ANS to California and Washington may be getting pulled into trans-Pacific voyages given VLCC shortages, tightening local tanker supply further. Los Angeles CARBOB gasoline prices hit a 22-month high of $3.08 per gallon on Thursday as tight regional inventories collided with Hormuz-driven crude market turbulence.

The Bakken-to-Seattle unit train rate sits at $7.88/bl and the Alberta-to-Stockton rate for Canadian heavy is $9.56/bl. With refinery capacity shrinking, marine supply chains disrupted, and ANS hitting record prices, the economics of delivering Bakken and Canadian heavy crude by rail to West Coast refiners are more compelling today than they have been in years, and PFL has the tank car capacity to support these lanes.

We are Watching LPG’s  

The Hormuz closure did not just hit crude markets. The Mideast Gulf region accounted for 30.5 percent of global LPG exports in 2025 at 1.48 million b/d, and with that supply locked in the Gulf, Asia-Pacific buyers turned to the U.S. immediately. Mont Belvieu propane prices jumped more than 9.6 percent in a single session on March 2nd, EPC propane gained 12.2 percent the same day, and U.S. Gulf Coast propane terminal fees hit a record 33 cents per gallon, roughly six times where they stood on February 4th, with the Far East delivered propane index spiking nearly $140 per tonne week on week to close to $780 per tonne on March 4th, a three-year high.

Fog-related delays at Gulf terminals in January and February left exporters still working to clear term cargo backlogs before the Hormuz shock hit. The Nederland terminal saw at least seven days of delays in January; Enterprise’s Houston outlet had five. U.S. propane exports actually fell to 1.6 million b/d in the week ended February 27th, the lowest since July 2025, underscoring that the U.S. cannot simply open the taps to replace Mideast shortfalls even with prices screaming higher. AltaGas reported its LPG exports to Asia rose 2 percent in Q4 2025, with its Prince Rupert Ripet terminal setting a quarterly export record above 85,000 b/d. Its Ridley Energy Export Facility is over 70 percent complete and on track for Q4 2026 startup at 56,000 b/d.

We are Watching Renewables

The Hormuz shock and California’s refinery implosion did not just move petroleum prices this week. They pulled the entire liquid fuels complex higher, and the renewable fuels market is feeling it in ways that matter for rail. Los Angeles renewable diesel prices surged from $2.48 per gallon on February 27th to $3.46 per gallon by Thursday, a 39.5 percent gain in a single week. West Coast refiners who lost access to California’s conventional refining capacity are competing for every drop of liquid fuel, renewable or conventional, that can be delivered into the state. With the Valero Benicia and Phillips 66, LA refineries both offline and no pipeline access from outside the region, the West Coast will pay almost anything to keep fuel moving.

Supply on the renewable diesel side is razor thin on the West Coast. In December 2025, GreenAmerica Biofuels out of Canada was the only renewable diesel supplier to the entire U.S. West Coast, with Neste absent for a second consecutive month. That is a stunning concentration of supply in a single source, and it underscores just how dependent California has become on a handful of producers for a fuel that its own regulatory regime mandates. Full-year 2025 RD imports into the West Coast totaled 142.5 million gallons, with 62 percent coming from Canada. The tank cars moving Canadian renewable diesel south are doing critical work, and any disruption to that supply chain shows up immediately in rack prices across the state.

On the ethanol side, blending economics are the best they have looked in a long time. Chicago ethanol spot hit $1.90 per gallon  on Friday of last week, a three-month high, while RBOB traded at a 72.2-cent premium over ethanol, making E10 and E15 blending sharply profitable for any terminal operator with access to both products. Ethanol exports surged to 217,000 b/d in the week ended February 27th, up 53.9 percent week on week, as international buyers chased a petroleum substitute that is actually available. Nebraska FOB railcar ethanol is trading at $1.63 to $1.65 per gallon, Dallas rail at $1.89, and UP westbound lanes to the Southwest at roughly $1.95. Stacked against high blending margins, surging export demand, and petroleum supply disruption, ethanol rail volumes look firm through the spring. E15 momentum is also building politically, with Iowa corn groups pressing Energy Secretary Wright for year-round nationwide access, and FAPRI modeling showing an additional 264 million gallons of ethanol demand in 2026 alone, if E15 expands broadly.

We are Watching the UP-NS Merger

Last week, seven Republican state attorneys general wrote to the STB calling the deal anti-competitive, adding some unexpected political heat to an already crowded opposition file. UP is pushing ahead regardless, with a refiled application due April 30th and a hard STB deadline of June 22nd. UP CEO Jim Vena has called the opposition “a panicked reaction” from competitors protecting their turf. He may be right, but the AG letter gives the STB political cover to ask harder questions.

The original application got kicked back in January for being incomplete: missing the full merger agreement, inadequate market share analysis, and unresolved questions around shared terminal access. The refile has to explain how a single railroad handling 43 percent of U.S. freight will not squeeze shippers, while Congress sits on the sidelines with 47 House members already calling for a rigorous STB review.

For energy and petroleum shippers specifically, the terminal access question is the one to watch. Houston’s Port Terminal Railroad currently gives UP, BNSF, and CPKC shared access to Gulf Coast petrochemical plants and port facilities. A UP-NS combination reshuffles that dynamic significantly, and how the STB handles terminal access in the revised application will matter to anyone moving crude, LPG, or refined products through Gulf Coast rail corridors. The Railway Age Next-Gen Freight Rail conference in Chicago on March 10th is the next live moment, both CEOs speaking publicly alongside the STB chair. Worth paying attention to the tone coming out of that room.

We Are Watching Key Economic Indicators

 Producer Price Index

In January 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% month over month, accelerating from the 0.4% increase in December and signaling renewed upstream price pressures to begin the year. Core PPI (final demand less foods, energy, and trade services) increased 0.3% month over month, in line with December’s pace.The monthly increase was driven entirely by services, which rose 0.8%, while goods declined 0.3%. Within goods, food prices fell 1.5% and energy prices declined 2.7%, while goods less foods and energy increased 0.7%, reflecting firming core goods pricing. Within services, trade margins rose 2.5%, transportation and warehousing increased 1.0%, and services less trade, transportation, and warehousing were unchanged (0.0%), indicating that the bulk of the services strength came from margin and logistics categories.

In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% month over month, matching December’s gain, and was up 2.7% year over year. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) rose 0.2% month over month and was up 2.6% year-over-year. Shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly increase. Food prices edged higher, while energy prices were mixed, with gasoline prices continuing to influence the headline figure.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Institute for Supply Management releases two PMI reports – one covering manufacturing and the other covering services. These reports are based on surveys of supply managers across the country and track changes in business activity. A reading above 50% on the index indicates expansion, while a reading below 50% signifies contraction, with a faster pace of change the farther the reading is from 50.

The Manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 52.4%, slightly below January’s 52.6% but still firmly in expansion territory and marking the second consecutive month above the 50 threshold after an extended period of contraction.

On the Services PMI side, the most recent reading is 56.1% (February 2026), up from 53.8% in January and signaling strong expansion in the services sector at its fastest pace in well over a year.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K Dot 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 100, 30K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 100, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

PFL will be at the Following Conferences

The post PFL Railcar Report 3-9-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending February 21, 2026 came in at 212,000, versus the adjusted number of 208,000 people from the week prior, up 4,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,833,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,864,000 people from the week prior, down 31,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed lower on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed lower on Friday of last week, down -521.28 points (-1.05%), closing out the week at 48,997.92, down -628.05 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday of last week, down -29.98 points (-0.43%), and closed out the week at 6,878.88, down -30.63 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -210.17 points (-0.92%), and closed out the week at 22,668.21, down -217.86 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 48,487 this morning, down 503 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up $1.81 per barrel (2.78%), to close at $67.02 on Friday of last week, and up $0.63 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up $1.73 per barrel (2.45%), to close at $72.48, and up $0.72 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for April delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$13.95  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$53.07 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 16 million barrels week-over-week. At 435.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 300,000 barrels week-over-week and are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week and are 46% above the five-year average for this time of year

Propane prices closed at 60.5 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 0.4 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 29.7 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.2 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending February 20, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, an increase of 136,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day, 4.9% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 563,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 411,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 13, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.313 million barrels per day during the week ending February 20, 2026, a decrease of 277,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.172 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending February 20, 2026, which was 416,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $71.88, up $4.86 per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending February 25, 2025:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+7.88%) in week 9, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending February 25, 2025 were 329,929, up (+13.32%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 339,155, up (+3.07%) year over year. 10 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-15.82%). The largest increase was Grain (+43.90%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+11.86%), with the largest decrease coming from Forest Products (-5.80%), while the largest increase came from Grain (+44.65%). NS’s total volumes were up (+6.28%), with the largest increase coming from Coal (+44.67%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-4.88%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+12.76%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+76.15%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-3.01%). UP’s total volumes were up (+5.48%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+43.54%), while the largest decrease came from Intermodal Units (-3.18%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+18.18%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+80.56%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-6.11%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-20.51%), with the largest increase coming from Nonmetallic Minerals (+36.19%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-68.06%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -11 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was down by -1 rig week-over-week, and down by -43 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 550 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -10 rigs week-over-week and down by -34 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 214 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -77 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,874 from 29,673 which was an increase of +201 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes fell. CN’s shipments were lower by -2.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were lower by -11.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mixed. The UP had the largest percentage increase and was up by +4.0%. The BN had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -5.0%.

We are Watching the Middle East

Early Saturday morning, the United States and Israel launched what President Trump called “major combat operations” against Iran, under the name Operation Epic Fury. Strikes have been reported across multiple Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Tabriz, and Bushehr, targeting military infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and senior leadership. Iran responded quickly, launching ballistic missiles and drones against U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. The UN Security Council convened an emergency session Saturday. As of this writing, the conflict is live and its scope and duration remain unknown.  New leadership has emerged in Iran and vows to strike back, shutting down an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and civilian targets across gulf state countries.

The crude market was moving before the bombs fell. Three rounds of nuclear talks in Geneva broke down last week over Iran’s refusal to remove its enriched uranium stockpile from the country. WTI settled Friday at $67.02/bbl, its highest close since August, while Brent closed at $72.87/bbl. Both benchmarks had already gained 6-8% over the prior two weeks as U.S. military assets concentrated in the region. Oil is already up 5% in premarket trading. Worth noting: a 16 million barrel build in U.S. commercial crude inventories last week would normally be a bearish fundamental that geopolitics is currently steamrolling

Roughly one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Iran has the capability to create serious disruption through tanker harassment, mining, and anti-ship missiles even without a full closure. UBS has publicly flagged a spike to $100/bbl as plausible in a sustained escalation scenario. Some Gulf producers, notably Abu Dhabi, are already ramping crude exports to cushion supply concerns, though that covers a fraction of the exposure.

For our readers, this changes the framework immediately. Prior to Saturday, the narrative was oversupplied markets, soft WCS differentials, and marginal CBR economics. A sustained WTI move above $70-75/bbl reshapes that calculus fast. Higher flat price improves crude-by-rail margins, and any tightening of global heavy sour supply improves the competitive position of Canadian WCS with U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. The Monday morning NYMEX open is the first real read on how the market is pricing this. 

We are Watching Canadian Crude Oil Exports by Rail

The Canadian Energy regulator reported on February 24, 2026, that 81,189 barrels were exported during the month of  December 2025 down from 85,055 barrels in November of 2025, a decrease of 3,866 barrels per day month-over-month.

Crude by rail will always be necessary out of Canada for stranded oil not connected by pipelines. Raw bitumen, which is shipped as a non-haz product and is not able to flow in pipelines, is competitive with pipeline tolls and is a growing market to keep an eye on, particularly in light of Strathcona and Gibson announcing new projects. Other factors would be existing long-term contractual commitments and basis – we really need to see the basis WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average) blowout to -18 per barrel for sustained periods of time to make economic sense. Current rail rates from Alberta to the U.S. Gulf Coast have averaged $15.36 per barrel, making rail competitive whenever WCS-WTI spreads exceed $18 per barrel, including quality adjustments.

We are Watching Canadian Crude Economics

An important dynamic surfaced on Par Pacific’s fourth quarter earnings call last week. The company’s CEO described Par Pacific as an “indirect beneficiary” of Venezuelan crude returning to the Gulf Coast market. More Venezuelan heavy sour barrels at the Gulf Coast push Canadian barrels back into the midcontinent, where Par Pacific can process 40,000 to 50,000 b/d of Western Canadian Select across its Rocky Mountains and Washington refineries. The company quantified it directly: for every $1/bbl improvement in WCS differentials, Par Pacific estimates a $15-16 million annual benefit.

The Iran situation changes this math immediately if WTI moves higher, as the rail rate is largely fixed while WCS differentials and WTI flat price can reprice overnight.

Pembina Pipeline sanctioned its Taylor-to-Gordondale condensate expansion last week at C$115 million, targeting a Q1 2027 in-service date. Its Birch-to-Taylor expansion adds another C$310 million for 120,000 b/d of propane-plus and condensate capacity in northeast BC, coming online Q4 2027. The condensate story and the crude egress story are two sides of the same coin: Alberta production is growing, and the infrastructure supporting it is still playing catch-up. 

We are Still Watching Line 5

Folks, we have been watching this one forever.  The Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer still wants this pipeline shut down for whatever reason and the battle continues. On Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Enbridge Energy LP v. Nessel, the years-long battle over whether Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel’s lawsuit to decommission Line 5 should be heard in state or federal court. The pipeline carries 540,000 barrels per day of light crude and natural gas liquids through the Straits of Mackinac, serving refineries in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario, and Quebec.

The question before the court is technically narrow but strategically enormous. Enbridge missed the mandatory 30-day deadline to remove Nessel’s 2019 state court lawsuit to federal court by over two years. Enbridge argues the deadline should be flexible given the international treaty implications of a cross-border pipeline. Michigan’s solicitor general called that position an “atextual escape hatch.” The distinction matters because a federal court has already ruled in a separate proceeding that federal pipeline safety law pre-empts Michigan’s authority to order a shutdown, while a state court applying Michigan’s public trust doctrine would be far more sympathetic to Nessel’s closure case. A ruling is expected before June.

If Line 5 is ultimately forced into prolonged uncertainty or shutdown proceedings, crude-by-rail out of Alberta becomes materially more attractive overnight (problem is there is not enough rail cars to even put a dent in that type of volume). Loss of that 540,000 b/d artery forces barrels onto the rail network. Enbridge’s proposed tunnel replacement has Army Corps permitting expected in coming weeks and faces a Michigan Supreme Court challenge scheduled for March 11th. This situation has multiple fronts and none of them are near resolution.

We are Watching a New Pipeline Proposal

Privately held Bridger Pipeline has filed applications with Montana regulators and the U.S. Bureau of Land Management for a 645-mile, 550,000 b/d pipeline running from the U.S.-Canada border in Phillips County, Montana to Guernsey, Wyoming. The details should look familiar: the border entry point is the same one designated for the cancelled Keystone XL line, it uses the same 36-inch pipe diameter, and Bridger says it would leverage existing infrastructure on the Canadian side. Construction could begin as early as July 2027, with an in-service target of mid-2030, assuming a presidential permit clears.

Keystone XL owner South Bow says it is evaluating an expansion that could link Canadian volumes to the Bridger line at Guernsey, though it offered no details ahead of its March 6 quarterly results. From Guernsey, multiple routing options reach downstream markets including a looped Pony Express pipeline to Cushing, or a revival of the shelved Liberty Pipeline route where Bridger and Tallgrass still hold right-of-way. Tallgrass is simultaneously running an open season for Bakken-to-Cushing capacity on the Pony Express, which typically runs near capacity.

The urgency is real. South Bow projects that Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin production will exceed pipeline takeaway capacity by mid-2027. Enbridge is planning a two-phase Mainline expansion adding 400,000 b/d. Trans Mountain is weighing 90,000 b/d of additional capacity through drag reducing agents by January 2027 with a further 210,000 b/d expansion possible by 2029-30. Until any of these pipes are in the ground, crude-by-rail remains the pressure valve for Alberta producers running into the capacity wall.

We are Watching Rail Terminal Consolidation

Canadian rail terminal operator Cando Rail & Terminal announced last week it is acquiring the rail terminal assets of U.S. based Savage Enterprises for an undisclosed sum. The combined company creates a coast-to-coast network of 36 railcar terminals, three short-line railways, and 80 first-and-last-mile operations with connections to all six Class I railroads. This is Cando’s fourth acquisition in two years, bringing its total investment to approximately $1 billion. Closing is expected in the second quarter subject to regulatory approval.

Savage brings a substantial Houston Ship Channel energy footprint, handling hundreds of thousands of railcars of chemical and petrochemical products annually, including petroleum liquids, petroleum coke, sulfur, and polymers. It also has Bakken exposure through a two-mile crude pipeline connecting its Trenton, North Dakota terminal to Energy Transfer’s 750,000 b/d Dakota Access system. Combined with Cando’s October acquisition of the Channelview terminal, which can stage and transload 900 railcars with Class I connections to BNSF, CPKC, and UP, the combined entity becomes a significant player in North American energy logistics. The scale of this consolidation reflects the ongoing view that terminal infrastructure is a durable long-term asset in the rail sector.

We are Watching the Canola Rush

March 1st arrived, and China delivered on half the deal. Beijing’s Finance Ministry issued a formal statement on Friday of last week confirming the suspension of 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster, and crab, effective today through year-end 2026. What was conspicuously absent from that statement: any mention of canola seed. The $4 billion seed market, and the headline commitment from Carney’s January Beijing visit to cut seed tariffs from 84% to 15%, went unconfirmed by Chinese authorities as of press time. Ottawa’s response was measured: a statement from the Minister of International Trade’s office said the seed tariff reduction is “on track as officials work on implementation details” and that “more information will be available in due course.” That is not the same as confirmation from Beijing.

The rail market had already been pricing in the full deal. According to the Globe and Mail, canola shipments in the final two weeks of February surged far above 2025 levels as exporters pushed product toward Vancouver ahead of the deadline. The Canadian Grain Commission’s weekly data showed the surge was real, with grain carloads for the week of February 21 hitting 24,463, up 8,121 week-over-week according to the AAR data. Those shipments are now crossing the Pacific, a 20-21 day voyage from Vancouver, and will arrive in Chinese ports expecting a 15% tariff. If Beijing doesn’t formally confirm the seed reduction in the coming days, there is going to be a very uncomfortable conversation at the dock.

The canola meal confirmation is genuinely meaningful, China was importing nearly 2 million metric tonnes annually before the 2025 tariff surprise gutted the trade, and restoring that flow is a real covered hopper tailwind on CN and CPKC corridors heading west. But the seed story is the one to watch. Six million tonnes annually and $4 billion in trade doesn’t come back until Beijing puts it in writing. We will be updating readers as this develops.

We are Watching a Rail Safety Bill Reintroduced

Three years after the Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, a bipartisan group of eight U.S. senators led by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) reintroduced the Bipartisan Railway Safety Act of 2026 on February 24. The original bill stalled in Congress in 2023-24 due to industry opposition and Republican resistance.

The bill mandates expanded deployment of wayside hotbox detectors, the temperature sensors that flagged the NS East Palestine train’s overheating bearings but under existing railroad policy did not compel a stop in time. It requires all railcars to undergo a full inspection at least once every five years, expands the hazardous chemicals list to include vinyl chloride, and mandates speed restrictions, improved braking technology, and route risk analysis for hazmat movements. The maximum civil penalty for safety violations would jump from $100,000 to $10 million per violation. Carriers would also face new requirements to notify states about hazardous materials crossing their borders.

The legislation has union support. The Association of American Railroads has historically pushed back on prescriptive mandates, and passage in a Republican-controlled Senate is far from certain. Regardless of this bill’s fate, the trajectory toward greater compliance obligations and increased hazmat scrutiny is a durable trend. Operators moving crude, ethanol, and LPG by rail should track this closely.

We are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Consumer Confidence

The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased from 54.0 in January to 57.3 in February.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased from 89.0 in January to 91.2 in February.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K Dot 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 100, 30K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 100, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

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Abraham Lincoln

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending February 14, 2026 came in at 206,000, versus the adjusted number of 229,000 people from the week prior, down 23,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,869,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,852,000 people from the week prior, up 17,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed higher on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 230.81 points (0.47%), closing out the week at 49,625.97, up 125.04 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 47.62 points (0.69%), and closed out the week at 6,909.51, up 73.34 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed higher on Friday of last week, up 203.34 points (0.90%), and closed out the week at 22,886.07, up 339.40 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded lower and are expected to open at 49,550 this morning, down -124 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed mixed on Friday of last week and higher week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed down -0.04 per barrel (-0.06%), to close at $66.39 on Friday of last week, but up $3.50 week-over-week. Brent crude closed up 0.10 per barrel (0.14%), to close at $71.76, and up $4.01 week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for April delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$15.00  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$51 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9 million barrels week-over-week. At 419.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels week-over-week and are 3% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels week-over-week and are 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased 3.1 million barrels week-over-week and are 39% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 60.9 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 1.7 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 32 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 19.1 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending February 13, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 281,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.3 million barrels per day, 1.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 353,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 199,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 13, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4.59 million barrels per day during the week ending February 13, 2026, an increase of 851,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.241 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the week ending February 13, 2026, which was 77,000 barrels per day more week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $66.07, down 41 cents per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending February 18, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were up (+3.77%) in week 8, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending February 18, 2026 were 330,593, up (+5.51%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 343,782, up (+2.16%) year over year. 10 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year increases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-17.37%). The largest increase was Grain (+39.72%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were up (+0.23%), with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-18.61%), while the largest increase came from Intermodal Units (+9.42%). NS’s total volumes were up (+1.43%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+16.93%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-8.65%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+9.24%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+56.48%), while the largest decrease came from Chemicals (-3.62%). UP’s total volumes were up (+7.61%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+57.03%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-3.25%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+9.26%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+37.89%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-37.95%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-21.63%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+35.70%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-69.79%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was up by +2 rigs week-over-week. The US rig count was unchanged week-over-week, but down by -41 rigs year-over-year. The US currently has 551 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was up by +2 rigs week-over-week, but down by -20 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 224 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -61 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads rose to 29,673 from 29,173 which was an increase of +500 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes rose. CN’s shipments were higher by +4.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +18.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were mixed. The BN had the largest percentage increase and was up by +10.0%. The CSX had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -3.0%.

We are Watching Canada

When Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel was asked last week about building a new West Coast oil pipeline, he did not mince words. The company spent C$600 million (roughly $440 million US) on the Northern Gateway project (never was built), watched the government pull the rug out when approval was overturned in 2016, and has no appetite to repeat the exercise. “That’s not the type of risk we are prepared to take on at this time,” Ebel said. That is as close to a flat no as you will hear from a CEO who still has to be diplomatic about these things.

The irony is that while Enbridge is declining to build new West Coast capacity, its existing Mainline system is under considerable pressure. The system averaged 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and was apportioned for nine of those twelve months, and already for both January and February of this year. Enbridge has sanctioned Mainline Line Optimization Phase 1 (MLO1), which will add 150,000 bpd of new capacity by October 2027, with MLO2 adding another 250,000 bpd in 2028. Those are welcome additions, but they are incremental fixes to a system that is already straining. The apportionment data last week confirms the situation has not improved: Enbridge rejected 13% of January heavy crude nominations at Kerrobert, Saskatchewan.

Meanwhile, Trans Mountain waterborne exports fell in January to an 11-month low of 390,000 b/d, the lowest since February 2025, as Chinese SPR buying that had supported prices through late 2025 eased. Chinese state-controlled firms may have added as much as 1.1 million b/d to China’s strategic petroleum reserve in December alone, and that demand has since faded. Heavy Canadian loadings from TMX to Asia-Pacific fell almost 22% from December. The result is that more Alberta barrels are being pushed back onto the Mainline and into US-bound flows rather than heading west. On a brighter note, Enbridge’s Line 5 reroute permit in Wisconsin was upheld by an administrative law judge on February 13, moving construction of the 41-mile reroute around the Bad River Band reservation closer to reality.

The April 1st carbon pricing deadline highlighted by Ebel remains a key near-term watch point. Producers need to understand Canada’s industrial carbon policy before committing to the kind of production growth that would stress the Mainline further. The Alberta government’s West Coast pipeline proposal targets federal submission by July 1st, but is structurally a decade away from moving molecules even in the best case. PFL will be watching how quickly MLO1 and MLO2 are absorbed and whether apportionment tightens further as new oilsands production hits the system.

We are Watching Cenovus

Three months after closing its $6.1 billion acquisition of MEG Energy, Cenovus has already captured the corporate synergies and is now focused on growing production in the field. The company produced a record 918,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2025, up 12% from Q4 2024, and exited the year with a monthly record of over 970,000 boe/d in December. The Q4 profit came in at C$934 million, up from C$146 million a year earlier. This is not a company that is slowing down.

The growth is coming from across the portfolio. Foster Creek hit a new record of 220,000 b/d in Q4, up from 195,000 b/d a year earlier, following completion of a 30,000 b/d optimization project ahead of schedule. Sunrise rose to 58,000 b/d, with three new well pads expected online this year. New to the Cenovus portfolio is Christina Lake North, formerly MEG’s Christina Lake asset, which averaged 110,000 b/d in Q4 for a record at that asset. CFO Kam Sandhar said on last Thursday’s earnings call that Cenovus plans to add approximately 40,000 b/d at Christina Lake North by 2028, growing total Christina Lake production to approximately 400,000 b/d, one of the largest single-asset production footprints in the oilsands.

What this means for pipeline and rail markets is more volume pressing against a system that, as noted above, is already apportioned. The question that matters for freight is whether MLO1 and MLO2 absorb the new barrels, or whether the system tips back toward differential widening that forces incremental production onto rail. The WCS-WTI differential has widened to 23-month highs, and the breakeven economics for crude-by-rail are essentially here right now. Cenovus’s production growth into a tightening Mainline is the single most important underlying driver of crude-by-rail economics in Western Canada over the next two years. PFL will be watching this one closely.

We are Watching the Supreme Court

On Friday of last week, the U.S. Supreme Court threw out most of the tariffs President Trump has imposed on nearly all U.S. trading partners, finding his ability to unilaterally impose tariffs exceeded his powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling could have potentially sweeping implications for cross-border trade flows and, by extension, for the rail industry that moves goods across the Canada-US and Mexico-US borders.

The timing is almost darkly comic. Last Wednesday, the US House voted 219-211 to revoke Canada’s 25% tariffs through a congressional resolution, a largely symbolic gesture that Trump was expected to veto anyway. Six Republicans crossed the aisle. The White House called it “a fruitless exercise.” Within days, the Supreme Court effectively rendered the entire debate moot. If the ruling holds, the IEEPA-based tariff architecture, which is the legal foundation for the Canada, Mexico, and global tariffs, collapses.

For the rail industry, the immediate question is whether this translates to a recovery in cross-border freight volumes. CN Rail disclosed last week that tariff impacts cost the company more than $350 million in revenue in 2025, with forest products and metals hardest hit. Critically, CN CFO Ghislain Houle made those comments at a Citi conference on February 18th, before the Supreme Court ruling, describing the environment as “still very murky.” A removal of tariffs would directly address the uncertainty that has been causing shippers to defer cross-border commitments. CPKC CEO Keith Creel noted last week that “tariff tribulations” had pushed Canadian and Mexican companies to diversify away from US suppliers, creating demand for CPKC as a Canada-Mexico land bridge. That trade pattern could now partially reverse.

Important caveats apply. The Trump administration will almost certainly appeal, and whether the ruling applies retroactively or only prospectively matters enormously for pricing and contract decisions. The USMCA review scheduled for July is a separate process that proceeds regardless. Readers should watch for the administration’s formal response in the coming days, as that will clarify whether the Canada-specific tariffs are immediately suspended or remain in legal limbo.  Over the weekend, Trump struck back, imposing a 15% across-the-board tariff on all countries under separate legal authority. The tariff story is not over.  Stay tuned to PFL, we are watching this one closely!

We are Watching Canola

Readers will recall that last month, left-wing Prime Minister Carney returned from Beijing with a trade deal that included significant tariff relief on Canadian canola. The March 1 implementation date is now days away. As of that date, China’s tariffs on Canadian canola seed drop from approximately 84% to 15%, and the 100% tariffs on canola meal are removed entirely through at least year-end. Together, these changes are expected to restore access to nearly $7 billion in annual export markets for Canadian agriculture.

To understand the magnitude of what has been blocked, consider that Canadian canola exports to China were essentially zero from August 2025 onward, after China’s preliminary anti-dumping duties on canola seed hit 75.8%. An industry that had been shipping meaningful volumes to China annually effectively lost that market overnight. With the 2025 crop sitting in storage and spring planting decisions weeks away, the timing of this tariff relief is critical for producer confidence. The Supreme Court ruling discussed above introduces one wrinkle: if US tariffs on Canada are struck down, some of the political calculus that drove Carney to the China deal changes. The canola deal itself is separate and proceeds regardless, but the broader trade picture is shifting quickly.

The rail implication is real and near-term. Covered hopper demand from the prairies into the Pacific export terminals has been depressed since the tariffs hit. A resumption of meaningful canola flow to China, routed through Vancouver export terminals via CN and CPKC, would put cars back to work on a lane that has been underutilized for months. Analysts are rightly cautious, as the tariff relief on canola meal is only guaranteed through year-end, and canola oil remains excluded from the deal entirely. But even a partial restoration of China volumes would be a meaningful shot in the arm for covered hopper utilization. PFL has covered hopper exposure in Western Canada, and we will be monitoring closely as the first post-tariff shipments begin moving.

We are Watching the UP and the NS

On Monday of last week, the Union Pacific and the Norfolk Southern jointly notified the Surface Transportation Board that they intend to refile their $85 billion merger application by April 30, 2026. The original December filing was rejected in January as incomplete, with the STB saying it was missing forward-looking market share data and key terms of the merger agreement. UP CEO Jim Vena, speaking at a Wednesday investor conference, said the delay will not derail the timeline and the railroads still expect to close the transaction in early or mid-2027.

What is new is that CN and CPKC have publicly said they will fight hard for concessions as the price of the merger going through. CN CFO Ghislain Houle told a Citi conference on Tuesday of last week: “We’ll be as aggressive as we can be on asking for remedies and concessions.” CPKC CEO Keith Creel described having a “robust” list of demands, including more access to UP’s network in St. Louis and Kansas City, and specifically access to Houston’s chemical alley, the massive refinery and petrochemical complex along the Houston Ship Channel, currently operated by a UP-BNSF joint venture with no direct CPKC connection. Creel made clear he wants one.

For its part, UP had initially budgeted $750 million for potential concessions, but CFO Jennifer Hamann said last week that the deal’s inherent benefits make such concessions unnecessary. “We don’t think they’re necessary to make our point and to drive better enhanced competition,” Hamann said. That position is going to be tested hard. The merger would cover about 55,000 miles of track and roughly half of US freight traffic, and the 2001 STB rules require the merging carriers to demonstrate that competition is enhanced, not merely preserved. That higher bar is exactly what CN and CPKC intend to exploit. For shippers of refined products and petrochemicals, the Houston access question is the one to watch. PFL clients with USGC petrochemical exposure should be paying close attention to what the STB ultimately requires here.

We are Watching Trucking

The truckload market is sending signals that should matter to everyone in intermodal. On Wednesday of last week, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration announced it had issued notices of proposed removal to over 550 CDL training schools following a five-day sting operation involving more than 300 investigators across all 50 states. The sweep included 1,426 on-site inspections and found schools operating with fake addresses, unqualified instructors, vehicles that did not match the training offered, and failures to properly train drivers on hazardous materials transport. Another 109 providers voluntarily withdrew from the national Training Provider Registry the moment investigators arrived. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy put it bluntly: “For too long, the trucking industry has operated like the Wild, Wild West.”

This follows a December purge that removed nearly 3,000 providers. The cumulative effect on the available driver pool is becoming measurable. J.B. Hunt management said at a Barclays investor conference Tuesday of last week that truck capacity has “notably tightened” and that the market remains firm even in what is seasonally the weakest demand period of the year, a combination you simply do not see at the bottom of a freight cycle. CFO Brad Delco described demand as trending “a little bit more positive” than the company had expected heading into the year, even without the demand-side help that would typically drive this kind of tightening.

For intermodal, this is the setup that practitioners have been waiting for after three years of freight recession. J.B. Hunt reported two-year stacked intermodal growth rates in the high single digits throughout 2025, with Q4 up 11%, and that growth happened during a period of excess truck capacity and low fuel prices. As those tailwinds reverse, the intermodal value proposition only gets stronger. NS’s new CMA CGM partnership, announced mid-week last week, offers a door-to-door “truck-like” intermodal product on West Coast-Midwest lanes under the Triple Crown brand, smart positioning for exactly this environment. PFL’s intermodal exposure stands to benefit if capacity tightening accelerates into spring bid season, as many in the market now expect.

We are Watching Key Economic Indicators

Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”)

Real GDP in the United States grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (covering October through December), according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This marks a notable slowdown from the 4.4% growth seen in Q3 2025, reflecting weaker government spending and export activity alongside still-positive consumer demand.

Consumer spending (measured by personal consumption expenditures) rose 2.4% in Q4 2025, down from a 3.5% pace in the previous quarter, and contributed approximately +1.6 percentage points to overall GDP growth. Investment also made a positive contribution, while government spending and exports declined, acting as a drag on overall growth. Imports fell, which provided a small positive effect on the GDP calculation because imports are subtracted in the GDP formula.

Consumer spending rose during the quarter, supported by gains in services such as healthcare and other non-durable sectors, though the pace of increase was lower compared with earlier in 2025. Other components of domestic demand—including fixed investment—added modestly to growth, but the overall slower pace of activity indicates weakening momentum at the end of the year.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers (the sum of household consumption and fixed investment) increased 2.4% in Q4 2025, compared with a stronger 2.9% pace in Q3 2025, indicating that underlying private demand expanded at a more moderate rate late in the year but remained a notable contributor to economic activity.

On the price front, the price index for gross domestic purchases rose 3.7%, while the PCE price index increased 2.9% and core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 2.7% in Q4. These inflation figures suggest persistent price pressures even as growth slowed.

Consumer Spending

In December 2025, total consumer spending continued to expand, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rising 0.4 percent from November 2025, reflecting steady household demand late in the year. Current-dollar PCE increased by $91.0 billion, driven by a $98.5 billion rise in services outlays that more than offset a $7.5 billion decline in goods spending. Real (inflation-adjusted) PCE rose 0.1%in December.

The personal saving rate declined to 3.6 percent in December, down from September and early-fall levels, as consumer outlays continued to outpace growth in disposable income.

On inflation, the PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — rose 0.4 percent month-over-month in December and 2.9 percent year-over-year, accelerating from earlier in the autumn. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index also rose 0.4 percent month-over-month and 3.0 percent year-over-year, indicating persistent underlying price pressures above the Fed’s long-run 2%target.

 Industrial Output and Capacity Utilization

Manufacturing accounts for approximately 75% of total output. Manufacturing output in January 2026 was up 0.6% from December 2025. Overall industrial production rose 0.7% month-over-month in January 2026 after a 0.2% rise in December.

Capacity utilization is a measure of how fully firms are using machinery and equipment. Capacity utilization increased from December to January 2026 — total industry moved up to about 76.2% in January, and manufacturing utilization edged up to about 75.6%.

Lease Bids

• 100, 21.9K 117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tanks located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.
• 200, 33K Pressure Tanks located off of CSX or NS in Ohio. For use in Propylene service. Period: 18 Months.
• 30-50, 25.5K Dot 111 Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Anywhere. For use in Asphalt service. Period: 1-3 Years.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Open-Top Aluminum Rotary Gondolas located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K DOT111 Tanks located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 100, 30K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 100, 30K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 29K DOT117R Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hoppers located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tanks located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hoppers located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 50, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Gasoline.
• 24, 21K Stainless Steel Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in SULFACTANT. Cars are currently clean.
• 34, 30K DOT 111 Tanks located off of UP in Texas / Mexico Border. Last used in Veg Oil. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

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The post PFL Railcar Report 2-23-2026 appeared first on PFL Petroleum Services LTD.

Carl Jung

Jobs Update

• Initial jobless claims seasonally adjusted for the week ending February 7, 2026 came in at 227,000, versus the adjusted number of 232,000 people from the week prior, down 5,000 people week over week.

• Continuing jobless claims came in at 1,862,000, versus the adjusted number of 1,841,000 people from the week prior, up 21,000 week-over-week.

Stocks closed mixed on Friday of last week and lower week-over-week

The DOW closed higher on Friday of last week, up 48.95 points (0.10%), closing out the week at 49,500.93, down -614.74 points week-over-week. The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday of last week, up 3.41 points (0.05%), and closed out the week at 6,836.17, down -96.13 points week-over-week. The NASDAQ closed lower on Friday of last week, down -50.48 points (-0.22%), and closed out the week at 22,546.67, down -484.54 points week-over-week.

In overnight trading, DOW futures traded higher and are expected to open at 49,486 this morning, down 83 points from Friday’s close.

Crude oil closed higher on Friday of last week, but lower week-over-week

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed up +5 cents per barrel (0.1%), to close at $62.89 on Friday of last week, but down -66 cents week-over-week. Brent crude closed up +23 cents per barrel (0.3%), to close at $67.75, and down -30 cents week-over-week.

One Exchange WCS (Western Canadian Select) for March delivery settled on Friday of last week at US$15.80  below the WTI-CMA (West Texas Intermediate – Calendar Month Average). The implied value was US$46.79 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 8.5 million barrels week-over-week. At 428.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels week-over-week and are 4% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels week-over-week and are 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased 5.4 million barrels week-over-week and are 36% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Propane prices closed at 62.6 cents per gallon on Friday of last week, down 2.6 cents per gallon week-over-week, and down 29.6 cents year-over-year.

Overall, total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels week-over-week, during the week ending February 6, 2026.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, an increase of 604,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) averaged 365,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 151,000 barrels per day during the week ending February 6, 2026.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.739 million barrels per day during the week ending February 6, 2026, a decrease of 308,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil exports averaged 4.016 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16 million barrels per day during the week ending February 6, 2026, which was 29,000 barrels per day less week-over-week.

WTI is poised to open at $63.67, up 92 cents per barrel from Friday’s close.

North American Rail Traffic

Week Ending February 11, 2026:

Total North American weekly rail volumes were down (-5.01%) in week 7, compared with the same week last year. Total Carloads for the week ending February 11, 2026 were 306,102, down (-4.40%) compared with the same week in 2025, while weekly Intermodal volume was 335,686, down (-5.55%) year over year. 9 of the AAR’s 11 major traffic categories posted year-over-year decreases. The largest decrease came from Forest Products (-22.15%). The largest increase was Grain (+9.07%).

In the East, CSX’s total volumes were down (-4.30%), with the largest decrease coming from Coal (-22.93%), while the largest increase came from Intermodal Units (+2.22%). NS’s total volumes were down (-10.61%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+6.43%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-25.60%).

In the West, BNSF’s total volumes were up (+0.91%), with the largest increase coming from Petroleum & Petroleum Products (+23.92%), while the largest decrease came from Coal (-24.31%). UP’s total volumes were down (-3.50%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+17.59%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-12.68%).

In Canada, CN’s total volumes were up (+5.24%), with the largest increase coming from Grain (+35.16%), while the largest decrease came from Other (-31.10%). CPKCS’s total volumes were down (-30.42%), with the largest increase coming from Other (+16.22%), while the largest decrease came from Forest Products (-66.99%).

Source Data: AAR – PFL Analytics

North American Rig Count Summary

Rig Count

North American rig count was down by -6 rigs week-over-week. The U.S. rig count was unchanged week-over-week, but down by -37 rigs year-over-year. The U.S. currently has 551 active rigs. Canada’s rig count was down by -6 rigs week-over-week and down by -23 rigs year-over-year. Canada currently has 222 active rigs. Overall, year-over-year we are down by -60 rigs collectively.

We are watching a few things out there for you:

We are Watching Petroleum Carloads

The four-week rolling average of petroleum carloads carried on the six largest North American railroads fell to 29,173 from 29,625 which was a decrease of -452 rail cars week-over-week. Canadian volumes were mixed. CN’s shipments were lower by -2.0% week-over-week, CPKC’s volumes were higher by +3.0% week-over-week. U.S. shipments were also mixed. The NS had the largest percentage increase and was up by +9.0%. The CSX had the largest percentage decrease and was down by -6.0%.

We are Watching Canadian Crude Flows

Canadian oil exports hit record levels while crude-by-rail collapsed to eight-year lows, highlighting how dramatically the Trans Mountain expansion has reshaped North American energy logistics.

Fresh data released from Stats Canada last week confirms the scale of the shift. Canada exported 4.44 million barrels per day in November, up from 4.21 million b/d a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada. But, the story beneath that headline is striking: exports to non-U.S. countries nearly tripled to 676,000 b/d, up from just 234,000 b/d in November 2024. Asian demand drove the surge, with the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline finally providing meaningful waterborne access to Pacific markets. The 890,000 b/d system, which came online in May 2024 after adding 590,000 b/d of capacity, now moves roughly 15% of Canada’s total crude exports to buyers that don’t require routing through the United States.

Alberta production hit a record 4.4 million b/d in November of 2025, and Prime Minister Carney has made expanding energy exports to China and India a centerpiece of his effort to reduce dependence on U.S. markets. Trans Mountain plans further expansions totaling 300,000 b/d, with the first 100,000 b/d increase targeted for January 2027. Meanwhile, Alberta wants to build another pipeline to the west coast with at least 1 million b/d of capacity.

The flip side – Rail has been pushed to the margins. Canadian crude-by-rail exports averaged just 88,700 b/d in 2024, down 10% from 2023.  So far in 2025 (still waiting on December data from the Canadian Energy Regulator) the country has exported an average of 76,791 barrels per day – lowest level since 2016, according to Canada Energy Regulator data. Rail becomes economic only when WCS-WTI differentials widen past certain thresholds, and with differentials narrowing post -TMX, the math doesn’t work for most shippers in this low priced crude environment we seem to find ourselves in.

We are Watching Trump

President Trump is privately weighing whether to withdraw from the CUSMA trade pact he negotiated, according to reports last week. The move would mark one of the most significant reversals in North American trade policy in decades and would immediately disrupt cross-border rail traffic that has operated under relatively stable rules since 1994.

Five Republicans broke ranks last Wednesday to join Democrats in blocking an extension of tariffs on Canadian goods, delivering a blow to House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had been holding the line on Trump’s trade measures. Johnson later said that Trump could veto any tariff rollback if it reaches his desk, but the congressional pushback signals eroding support for the administration’s trade war even within the president’s own party. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said both chambers have now rejected Trump’s “phony emergency and fabricated trade war,” while the Republican-controlled Senate also voted to abandon tariffs on Brazil and other emergency global duties.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs as soon as February 20, which could force the administration’s hand one way or another.

For railroads, CUSMA withdrawal would be catastrophic. Cross-border rail movements between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico have grown substantially under the agreement, with integrated supply chains depending on predictable tariff-free treatment. Automotive parts routinely cross borders multiple times during production. Grain, energy products, and intermodal containers move seamlessly north and south. A sudden shift to World Trade Organization rules or worse would inject massive uncertainty into routing decisions, pricing, and long-term contracts.

Even the threat of withdrawal creates problems. Shippers are already dealing with the policy whiplash from conflicting signals out of Washington. Now they have to game out scenarios where the foundational trade framework for North America simply disappears. PFL clients moving cross-border freight need to stay close to this. L Give the desk a call, we can help you!

We are Watching Trucking

Intermodal is having a moment, and it’s not because freight demand is surging. It’s because trucking capacity is bleeding out.

Spot rates and tender rejections stayed elevated despite volumes running 6-7% below year-ago levels, a clear signal the market shift is supply-driven, not demand-led. Carriers continue leaving lanes and reducing fleets after years of attrition and stretched balance sheets. The result: higher spot rates, rising tender rejections, and greater route-guide noncompliance even with weak baseline volumes post-holiday.

Shippers are responding by moving freight to intermodal where the lanes make sense. C.H. Robinson reported “interest in converting truckload shipments to intermodal surged“ due to tightening over-the-road capacity, a trend continuing into RFP season as shippers target cost savings on longer hauls where intermodal pencils. Railroads are holding pricing relatively flat, keeping intermodal competitive with truckload rates and maintaining service metrics that have been solid for 30 consecutive weeks.

This isn’t about intermodal stealing share through better service or lower prices. It’s about trucking’s structural capacity problems making rail look attractive again. Union Pacific cut its priority LA-to-Chicago service to three days. BNSF and CSX introduced nine new intermodal schedules from California to the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Norfolk Southern and UP launched new outbound service from Louisville to the West Coast. These moves are tactical responses to demand that’s flowing their way because over-the-road alternatives are either unavailable or prohibitively expensive.

U.S. rail intermodal volume fell 3.4% in December 2025 from a year earlier, the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year decline, so it’s not like the sector is booming. But, the setup for 2026 looks better than it did six months ago, largely because the trucker pain is real and likely to persist. If contract trucking rates move up in the back half, intermodal could see volume growth for the first time since early 2025.

For PFL’s intermodal customers, now is a good time to lock in coverage on longer lanes. The pricing window won’t stay open if trucking starts adding capacity.

We are Watching Coal

Coal was supposed to fade cleanly. Instead, it’s a stubborn, cash-flow-relevant anomaly. While U.S. power generation continues a long-term shift away from coal, demand has proven highly sensitive to stress: weather events, export market volatility, grid reliability concerns, and geopolitical energy shocks. Railroads sit squarely in the middle of that stress response.

One important nuance is export coal, particularly metallurgical coal used in steelmaking. When global steel demand rises or supply disruptions hit Australia or Russia, U.S. coal suddenly becomes marginal supply again. These swings translate directly into rail volume surges on corridors feeding East Coast and Gulf export terminals. Unlike domestic utility coal, export volumes tend to move long distances at higher rates, making them disproportionately profitable even at modest volume levels.

What makes coal uniquely attractive to railroads at this stage is not growth, but capital efficiency. The infrastructure is fully depreciated. The locomotives, crews, and terminals already exist. Incremental coal traffic flows through networks with minimal incremental cost, producing strong contribution margins even as total coal volumes trend downward. In effect, coal has become a harvest asset: one that railroads no longer optimize for growth, but one they are happy to monetize as long as it shows up. Investors may discount coal’s future, but the cash it throws off today helps fund dividends, buybacks, and capital investment elsewhere on the network.

Coal’s persistence is also being reinforced by policy intervention. DOE forced Consumers Energy to delay closure of its J.H. Campbell coal plant in Michigan. When one large facility is forced to remain online, it tightens coal supply logistics across a broader regional system. Mines remain active longer than planned, rail contracts are extended rather than wound down, and supporting infrastructure stays utilized. In the Midwest and parts of the Southeast, railroads have seen coal volumes stabilize and in certain corridors modestly rebound, not because demand is growing structurally, but because retirements are proving harder to execute than anticipated.

Utilities are quietly reassessing closure timelines as reserve margins shrink and peak-load risk rises. While few are announcing outright reversals, several are delaying decommissioning, maintaining dual-fuel flexibility, or running coal units at higher capacity factors during periods of stress. Each of those decisions translates directly into incremental rail carloads that were assumed to be gone.

From the railroads’ perspective, the impact is disproportionately positive. Coal traffic moves in long, dense unit trains that efficiently absorb network capacity. Even flat or slightly higher volumes can meaningfully support cash flow because the cost structure is already in place and largely depreciated. Unlike growth commodities that require new terminals or equipment, coal simply keeps moving on rails that were built decades ago and never stopped working.

The takeaway is not that coal is “back,” but that it is exiting more slowly and opportunistically than consensus models suggest. As long as utilities prioritize reliability, railroads will continue to extract value from a commodity that was supposed to have already left the building.

We are Watching Left Wing Carney

Prime Minister Mark Carney made a significant policy reversal on November 27th, when he signed a memorandum of understanding with Alberta that allows enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects to qualify for federal carbon capture tax credits. Ottawa had explicitly banned this since 2021. The move ties Alberta’s massive $16.5 billion Pathways Alliance carbon capture project directly to approval of a new oil pipeline to the West Coast. Neither can proceed without the other.

Here’s the thing: this is how carbon capture should have been done all along. Enhanced oil recovery kills two birds with one stone. You permanently store industrial CO₂ emissions underground while extracting additional oil from depleting reservoirs. Pure carbon storage, where you capture CO₂ and just bury it, is economically stupid when you can use that same captured carbon to increase oil production and extend the life of mature fields. It is already done successfully at sites like Whitecap Resources’ facility near Estevan, Saskatchewan, which uses CO₂ purchased from the coal-fired Boundary Dam Power Station.

How Enhanced Oil Recovery Works: CO₂ captured from industrial emitters can be separated, compressed, and transported via pipeline or rail to mature oil fields. Once it reaches the injection site, the CO₂ is pumped into depleting reservoirs, creating increased pressure that pushes additional oil to the surface. The CO₂ remains permanently stored underground. It’s not released back into the atmosphere. This is a true win-win: you sequester carbon AND produce more oil from fields that would otherwise be abandoned.

Once the CO₂ reaches its destination it is injected into the depleting reservoir.

Alberta Carbon Trunk Line (ACTL), completed in 2020, demonstrates this works at scale. It’s the world’s largest capacity CO₂ pipeline, capable of transporting up to 14.6 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. That represents 20% of all current oil sands emissions or the equivalent of capturing CO₂from more than 2.6 million cars. The system captures CO₂ at the North West Redwater Partnership Sturgeon Refinery and Nutrien’s Redwater Fertilizer Facility, then transports it to mature oil fields for injection. It works. It’s profitable. And it should have been the model from day one.

Carney’s policy shift now allows projects like Pathways Alliance to access federal investment tax credits covering up to 50 percent of capital costs, with Alberta adding another 12 percent. The Pathways project would build a 400-kilometer pipeline connecting over 20 oilsands facilities to an underground storage hub near Cold Lake, Alberta. The federal government had previously refused to subsidize EOR, insisting that carbon capture projects could only receive tax credits for “pure” storage where the CO₂ is buried and left alone.

That policy was never a very good one. If you’re going to spend billions capturing industrial carbon emissions, why NOT use it productively? The carbon stays underground either way, but with EOR you get economic value from enhanced production. Canada already possesses world-leading carbon capture technology. The ACTL system proves the infrastructure can be built and operated profitably.

The Rail Angle:

If EOR scales up as promised, it could create demand for specialized railcars to transport compressed CO₂ from industrial capture facilities to injection sites although these cars are very expensive to build. This is important for emitters not directly connected to pipeline infrastructure. You need pressure cars rated for supercritical CO₂, and you need a lot of them if this expands beyond the Pathways project. Could be new demand for rail equipment and logistics that doesn’t currently exist at scale.

So Is Carney Waking Up? Maybe. But we’re skeptical. Carney has publicly admitted Canada will miss its 2030 and 2035 climate targets under current policies.   The proof will be in Carney’s actions. Does the Pathways project actually get built, or does it stall out over operational cost disputes like it did under Trudeau? Does the promised West Coast pipeline materialize, or does environmental opposition kill it? Does Alberta’s industrial carbon price stay frozen at $95 per tonne, undermining the entire economic case for carbon capture?

Carney may have finally figured out that EOR is the only economically viable path for large-scale carbon capture in Canada’s oil patch. But figuring it out in late 2025, after years of banning EOR from federal subsidies, means we’ve lost half a decade when this infrastructure could have been getting built. If he’s serious, we’ll see shovels in the ground soon. If not, this is just another announcement designed to keep Alberta happy while accomplishing nothing.

Whether Carney has the political will to build at scale, or if this is just window dressing to deflect criticism while he approves more pipelines, remains to be seen.

In other Carney news, he scrapped the Trudeau-era electric vehicle mandate on February 5th, the policy requiring 100% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2035, and replaced it with a rebate program and vague emissions standards. Carney paused the mandate back in September for a “60-day review,” spent the fall insisting Canada needed binding targets, then killed it entirely. In its place? A $2.3 billion rebate scheme offering $5,000 for EVs and $2,500 for plug-in hybrids, but only in 2026, declining annually until it expires in 2030. The $50,000 price cap excludes most vehicles Canadians actually want to buy, and the program only covers imports from free-trade countries, meaning the 49,000 Chinese EVs Carney just negotiated access to won’t qualify.

The charging infrastructure spend of $1.5 billion through the Canada Infrastructure Bank sounds impressive until you realize Ottawa has been funding charger buildouts since 2016 and EV adoption is still stuck at 11% of new sales. Government officials admitted they haven’t modeled the emissions impact, which replaces binding 2026 sales targets with “aspirational” goals of 75% EV sales by 2035 and 90% by 2040. Carney claims new tailpipe standards will deliver equivalent reductions, but the details won’t be published until later this year. Bottom line Carney still wants Canadians to drive electric vehicles but realized the original targets were not in line with reality or what people really want.  This new scheme is just putting lipstick on a pig, in our opinion.

For the rail sector, this policy chaos matters less for what it does than for what it represents. Carney’s approach to EVs is the same playbook he’s running on energy policy writ large. The mandate’s death won’t meaningfully impact finished vehicle imports by rail; most Canadian-bound autos move by truck or are assembled domestically. But, Carney’s willingness to capitulate to industry lobbying while maintaining retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles creates exactly the kind of policy uncertainty that strangles investment decisions. You can’t plan a supply chain when the government changes direction every quarter.

We are Watching Wabtec

Last week, Wabtec announced nearly $1.8 billion in locomotive agreements with CSX and Union Pacific, a clear sign the big railroads are focused on running leaner, not necessarily bigger.

CSX signed a $670 million agreement that includes 100 new locomotives, upgrades to 50 existing units, and expanded digital systems. A big piece of that is converting older DC locomotives to more efficient AC traction, improving pulling power and fuel burn while extending the life of assets already on the books.

Union Pacific followed with a $1.2 billion modernization program, centered on upgrading its AC4400 fleet with updated propulsion systems and diagnostics to improve reliability and efficiency over time.

This isn’t about expanding fleets, it’s about tightening operations. Class I railroads are improving fuel efficiency, extending asset life, investing in digital performance tools, and strengthening reliability. That suggests a steady-demand environment where protecting margins and maintaining service consistency matter more than rapid growth.

For shippers, especially in bulk and energy markets, better locomotive performance typically translates into more predictable network performance and fewer operational surprises.Even with freight growth remaining moderate, Class I railroads are putting real capital behind efficiency, signaling confidence in long-term demand and a clear commitment to operational performance.

We are watching Key Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

On February 11, 2026, the BLS reported that 130,000 net new jobs were created in January 2026. Job gains were concentrated in health care, social assistance, and construction, while some sectors like federal government and financial activities saw losses.

Figures for prior months were revised sharply lower, with 2025’s net new job gains adjusted down from 584,000 to approximately 181,000, marking one of the weakest years for U.S. job growth in decades.

The official unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.3% in January 2026, down from 4.4% in December 2025.

Lease Bids

• 30-50, 6000cf Steel Hopper located off of CSX or NS in East. For use in petcoke service. Period: 5 Years.
• 10, 2500CF Open Top Hopper located off of UP or BN in Texas. For use in aggregate service. Period: 5 years. Need Rapid Discharge Doors.
• 100, 21.9K 117J Tank located off of All Class 1s in Midwest. For use in CO2 service. Period: 6 months.
• 30-50, 30K 117J Tank located off of NS or CSX in Northeast. For use in C5 service. Period: 1 year.
• 20-50, 4000-5000 Covered Hopper located off of UP or BN in Houston. For use in Urea, Potash, Ammonium Sulfate service. Period: 6-12 Months.

Sales Bids

• 28, 3400CF Hopper Covered located off of UP BN in Texas. For use in Cement service. Cement Gates needed.
• 20, 17K Tank DOT111 located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in corn syrup service.
• 120, Various Gondola Open-Top Aluminum Rotary located off of various class 1s in various locations. For use in Sulphur service. Built 2004 or later.
• 30, 29K Tank DOT111 located off of various class 1s in Chicago. For use in Veg Oil service.

Lease Offers

• 100, 30K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Diesel.
• 100, 30K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline.
• 100, 29K DOT117J Tanks located off of UP or BN in Texas. Last used in Gasoline. Coiled and Insulated.
• 21, 6351 Covered Hopper located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 29, 6500 Covered Hopper located off of CN in Wisconsin. Last used in DDG. Available until February 2027.
• 50, 20K DOT117J Tank located off of All Class 1s in Moving. Last used in Styrene.
• 29, 25.5K DOT117J Tank located off of UP or BN in Texas. Cars are currently clean. Cars are currently clean.
• 90, 30K DOT117J Tank located off of UP or BN in Corpus Christie. Last used in Diesel.
• 200, 340W DOT 112J Tank located off of All Class 1s in Multiple Locations. Last used in Propane and Butane. Cars are currently clean.
• 15, 6200CF Covered Hopper located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.
• 30, 6500CF Covered Hopper located off of All Class 1s in Wisconsin. Last used in Plastic. Cars are currently clean.

Sales Offers

• 50, 31.8K CPC1232 Tanks located off of UP or BN in TX. Last used in Multiple. Requal Due in 2025.
• 100, 4600CF Open Top Hoppers located off of BN or CSX in Southeast. Last used in Coal.
• 35, 3400CF Covered Hoppers located off of UP or BN in Midwest. Last used in Sand.
• 25, 30K 117J Tanks located off of CSX in Jackson, TN. Last used in Fuels. Newly Requalified.

Call PFL today to discuss your needs and our availability and market reach. Whether you are looking to lease cars, lease out cars, buy cars, or sell cars call PFL today at 239-390-2885

Live Railcar Markets

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