{"id":492,"date":"2020-03-23T12:32:15","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T16:32:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pflpetroleum.com\/reports\/?p=492"},"modified":"2023-07-28T11:08:01","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T15:08:01","slug":"pfl-railcar-report-3-23-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pflpetroleum.com\/reports\/pfl-railcar-report-3-23-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"PFL Railcar Report 3-23-2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

\u201cYou may have to fight a battle more than once to win it\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\nMargaret Thatcher<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 Update<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Folks, as most of you know, there is a  battle going on out there amid the COVID -19 outbreak<\/a>, as it continues to create havoc across the world.  <\/strong>Things seem to go from bad to worse as lockdowns across the nation intensifies and people are forced to work from home.  Millions of people have either lost their jobs this past week or will.  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Gold is not even a safe haven, as that too has declined with equities. This is uncommon considering gold prices typically rise when stock prices decline .  <\/strong>(Please see 5 year chart \u2013 blue line is the DOW)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Gold
Source: PFL Analytics<\/em><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Oil Futures in New York tumbled on Friday, bringing last week\u2019s plunge to 29 percent,<\/strong> the biggest since January 1991. Some see demand shrinking as much as 10 to 20 million barrels of oil per day as drivers stay home and flights are grounded across the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil prices have fallen for four straight weeks and have dropped about 60 percent since the start of the year.  Prices of everything from coal to copper have also been hit by the crisis, while markets in bonds and stocks enter rarely charted territory. As of writing this report equities are poised to open higher with DOW futures currently up 450 points.<\/strong>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have been\nextremely busy at PFL with return on lease programs, storage and an unprecedented\nnumber of subleases and leases \u2013 please call PFL today 239-390-2885.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Railcar Volumes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Total\nNorth American rail volumes were down 6.4% year over year in week 11<\/strong>\n(U.S. -7.6%, Canada -2.6%, Mexico -6.7%), resulting in quarter to date volumes\nthat are down 5.3% (U.S. -7.0%, Canada -1.6%, Mexico +4.2%). 5 of the AAR’s 11\nmajor traffic categories posted year over year declines with the largest\ndecreases coming from intermodal (-9.8%), coal (-20.2%) and nonmetallic\nminerals (-6.0%). The largest increases came from farm products & food\n(+10.1%), petroleum (+10.9%), motor vehicles & parts (+6.6%) and chemicals\n(+3.7%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the East, CSX\u2019s\ntotal volumes were down 5.4%,<\/strong> with the largest decreases coming from\ncoal (-27.6%) and intermodal (-4.7%). NS\u2019s\ntotal volumes were down 17.4%,<\/strong> with the largest decreases coming from\nintermodal (-15.8%), coal (-45.9%), stone sand & gravel (-32.0%) and grain\n(-27.9%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the West, BN\u2019s\ntotal volumes were down 6.3%,<\/strong> with the largest decreases coming from\nintermodal (-10.9%), coal (-15.2%), stone sand & gravel (-32.0%) and\npetroleum (11.7%) The largest increases came from grain (+21.0%) and motor\nvehicles & parts (+28.9%). UP\u2019s\ntotal volumes were down 0.5%,<\/strong> with the largest decreases coming from\nintermodal (-4.3%) and coal (-13.1%). The largest increases came from chemicals\n(+9.7%) and petroleum (+21.6%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Canada, CN\u2019s\ntotal volumes were down 7.6%<\/strong> with the largest decrease coming from intermodal\n(-18.5%). The largest increase came from farm products (+39.8%). RTMs were up\n3.7%. CP\u2019s total volumes were up\n9.6%,<\/strong> with the largest increases coming from petroleum (+56.9%) and\nfarm products (+129.8%). RTMs were up 12.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

KCS\u2019s\ntotal volumes were down 0.5%,<\/strong> with the largest decreases coming from\nintermodal (-4.8%) and coal (-36.6%). The largest increase came from petroleum\n(+58.4%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reductions in Rail Volume<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The\nSurface Transportation Board (STB) has released February headcount data for the\nU.S. rails. For the industry as a whole, February headcount was down 12.5% year\nover year.<\/strong> The most substantial year over year declines occurred at NSC\nand UNP. We are not surprised to see additional reductions given the weakness\nin rail volumes and PSR implementation. We expect further headcount reductions\nto continue as the rails assess the impact from COVID-19 and the sudden and\ndrastic implosion of energy markets due significant demand destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North\nAmerican Rig count is down 97 rigs week over week<\/strong> with the U.S. losing 20\nrigs and Canada losing 77 rigs week over week. \nYear over year we are down 237<\/strong>\nRigs collectively.  U.S. energy firms cut\nthe most oil rigs in a week in almost a year \u2014 mostly in the Permian basin \u2014 as\na meltdown in oil and natural gas prices due to the coronavirus outbreak has\nforced producers to deepen cuts in spending on new drilling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

North American Rig Count Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"North
Source: Baker Hughes<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Railcar Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

PFL is offering: <\/strong>340Ws for long and short term lease, 117Rs last in diesel service, various box cars for lease, 31.8\u2019s clean and last in refined products, 25.5K 117Js coiled and insulated, as well as 5000 CFC Center Flow Pressureaide Covered Hopper cars that have recently been cleaned. Call PFL for details today!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PFL is seeking: <\/strong>23.5Ks and 25.5Ks for fuel oil products, 117s with magnetic gauging devices for lease, 117s dirty with condensate, 89 ft flat cars for purchase, 100 mil gons for short term lease, 117Js last in ethanol, and 4750s for use in coke service. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n